Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Who knows what type of ‘weather’ we’ll have this time.
So, nat-gas can’t go any lower than where it is now, right?
Wrong
That type of thinking’s called a ‘Mind Trap’, link here.
David Weis would typically start mentoring sessions with a question (after presenting a chart):
“What do you see?”
Forgetting all the factors that ‘should’ drive the price of nat-gas higher, we have the chart.
Natural Gas ETF, UNG: Daily
The upper blue line is resistance which price action ‘up-thrusted’ (reversed).
The green line is a minor support area.
This is where a long position was initiated (UNG-25-01). The expectation for the next day (last Friday), was for an immediate increase it price.
That didn’t happen. The long position, the only ‘long’ for this year, was exited (not advice, not a recommendation).
The orange line is another support area but the lower blue line, if UNG gets there, is the ‘spring’ set-up target.
U.S & China Nat-Gas
Last Friday’s chaos with China and tariffs, begs the question if Chinese nat-gas shipments would be used as a tit-for-tat pawn; meaning, China halts all purchases.
The short answer is no.
For all of 2025, there’ve been no shipments, link here.
With that said, if nat-gas is going to move lower to the target area shown, then something else would be the driving mechanism.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Going back to this post, one reason given for continued lower prices in Nat-Gas, was the high price of oil: with Nat-Gas being a by-product of oil production.
Since that post, oil prices (USO) have dropped, and Nat-gas prices are on the rise.
Natural Gas UNG, Daily
The two dashed black lines are trend and channel.
There’s also a ‘W’ bottom formed; if broken to the upside, targets the ‘Measured Move’ as shown (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Insane, delusional valuations, high interest rates, no rate cut.
What could go wrong?
Visitors to this site already knew that ‘something’s up’.
Fully documented well in advance of today, was the A.I. bubble reversal, silver reversal, biotech reversal, and commodities like corn and Nat-Gas continuing their sustained decline.
Now the market hysteria is resulting in the typical knee-jerk, ‘flight to safety’ to the bond market (not advice, not a recommendation).
Surely, with all of that, the Fed will cut rates, right?
For the (potential) answer to that question, let’s look at the bond market.
Long Bonds, TLT, Weekly
Already proposed on this site, the Fed does not lead the bond market and interest rates, it follows it (not advice, not a recommendation).
So, what’s this chart telling us?
If the market continues its decline in the coming weeks, TLT price action itself shows a potential for higher bond prices (lower yields).
We’re just over six-weeks away from the next Fed meeting.
Fed Follower?
If the Fed is still a follower, not a leader and if bond (TLT) prices reach the target just as the September meeting is held, then, one would expect a rate cut (not advice, not a recommendation).
Important to note, if TLT gets to the target area, it’s in Wyckoff Up-Thrust (potential reversal) position.
Economic Air-Pocket
If there is a rate cut as a result of the leading action of the bond market and then it reverses to the downside (rates higher), that’s when it would get real interesting.
Correction or crash; we may have to wait until September to find out (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Price action detailed below, shows upside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).
It’s been a while since the last update on Nat-Gas, UNG.
Since then, price action sliced through support (shown in the update), posting new lows.
However, over the past week, the character has changed.
Natural Gas, UNG, 3-Day
Today is ‘Day 3’, for the chart’s price bar; tomorrow’s action begins a new ‘3-Day’ bar.
At this juncture, the prior three-day move to new (daily) lows has been negated with today’s action.
If positioning long, the obvious stop level would be the low of the current three day bar at UNG 13.89 (not advice, not a recommendation).
Anything Can Happen
The past two weeks has shown us, in no uncertain terms, that anything can happen.
So, it is with the markets.
Nat-Gas has been bouncing around historical lows for some time; plenty of time to wear out any (remaining) bulls.
SOXX Housekeeping
While under no obligation to discuss open (or closed) trades, as a courtesy, today’s price action forced closure of SOXX short trade; SOXS-24-12
Total profit on the trade, having twelve separate entries and one exit (today) was just over 19%.
We’re potentially at the top of the largest mania in history save the South Sea, expecting things to go in a straight line is (apparently) not realistic. 🙂
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Before we get to that, let’s first be aware of what’s being presented to the public. This recent link, says that upon increase in production, ‘go short’ (absolutely, definitely, not advice, not a recommendation).
So, the advice is, somehow tie the fundamentals to a trading action?
Given that going short on increase of production would even work (I wouldn’t do it), how is anyone going to figure out whether those numbers are real?
So, we choose not to play the game and instead, go straight to the truth, price action.
Nat-Gas UNG, Daily
First, it’s important to note the ‘Risk At A Low’, area.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Since Wyckoff analysis doesn’t care about the press, we’ll use it to discern the (potential) truth.
Let’s see how it did in the recent past. The Nat-Gas (UNG) low, was identified to-the-day,link here.
From that post, was this:
“Downward thrust in Nat-Gas UNG, appears to be exhausting itself after a 20-month, bear market.Risk is never zero, but currently appears to be at a low … “
So, it was. Afterwards, UNG bounced near, but never touched that low.
Twelve trading days later (Fibonacci 13 days, from low), it reversed decisively to the upside.
The Same, But Not
On the medium, to long-term, CORN action is the same as biotech (XBI), but opposite.
Instead of an up-thrust two-years in the making, we may have a spring set-up, taking just as long if not longer.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Just like the Nat-Gas reversal, which is now on-going, Life Insurance may be the biggest downside sleeper of all (not advice, not a recommendation).
Searching the YouTube vortex, turns up this, on the largest cap of the sector; Met Life, MET (time stamp 2:27).
It’s the usual suspects. Another (almost) knee-jerk, ‘buy-the-dip’.
Let’s take a look at what’s really happening with Life Insurance, looking at the long-term view.
Life Insurance Sector, Weekly Close
The last major melt-down during ’07 – ’09, had the index collapse over 76%
Moving to the topping action highlighted in the zoom area, we have the following:
Then, on to the largest cap in the sector, our chief cook and bottle washer, Met Life (MET), there’s this:
We may find out as early as next session, if MET is in a downtrend or spring position, ready to move higher (not advice, not a recommendation)
The chart nuance advocating against a viable spring is the reduced upside volume on Friday when compared to a day earlier; up volume contracts 46%, when compared to downside volume on Thursday.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 