Category Archives: Oil

Sunday Night Futures

June 15, 2025 By in CLN25, GCQ25, Oil, Oil & Gas, SIN25, USO

Gold, Silver & Oil

As of 7:12 p.m., EST, gold futures GCQ25 are steady-to-up, about +0.42%.

Silver futures SIN25, are flat +0.08%, so neither metal is moving decisively.

Oil is a different story.

Futures CLN25, had a gap-higher open, printing just below last Friday’s high of 77.62.

In just the hour so from the open, that contract is now retracing lower, nearing Friday’s close.

That means, when looking at the chart of USO below, current price action is within the upper range of Friday’s trading.

United States Oil Fund, USO, Daily

The last update on oil, had this:

“If oil and related markets like XOP, can’t hold or surpass those highs, well then, we have our answer (not advice, not a recommendation).”

Friday’s volume was characteristic of a blow-off move.

As noted on the chart, last time there was comparable volume, printed over three years ago; USO peaked, retraced, made slight new highs, then sideways-to-down, for years.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Overnight, Oil Spikes Higher

June 13, 2025 By in Oil, Oil & Gas, Positions, XOP, XOP-25-01 1 Comment

Bull Market, or Not

Overnight, oil futures launched higher.

Selected news links, below:

Oil Could Hit $130 In “Worst Case Scenario”: JPMorgan, link here.

Images Emerge Of Tehran Destruction After Major Israeli ‘Preemptive Attack’; IRGC Chief Killed. link here

Crude propelled by Israeli attacks on Iran; ES -1.1%, DXY +0.8% – Newsquawk US Market Open, link here

Crude +8%, ES -1.5% after Israel conducts strikes on Iranian nuclear & military targets – Newsquawk Europe Market Open, link here.

Oil, Bull Market?

Even as this post is being created (8:54 a.m., EST), oil futures are backing off overnight highs.

It’s what happens next, that’s important.

If oil and related markets like XOP, can’t hold or surpass those highs, well then, we have our answer (not advice, not a recommendation).

Oil & Gas, XOP, Daily

In the pre-market session, XOP is trading just below the 61.8%, Fibonacci projection.

If the XOP wave is ‘corrective’, shown as ‘a-b-c’ above, that means it’s against the main trend (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Exxon Reversal

May 15, 2025 By in Oil, Oil & Gas, Positions, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XOM, XOM-25-01, XOP

Picture Perfect

Exxon’s is one of the large-caps in the Oil & Gas sector ETF, XOP.

The potential for (downside) reversal in XOP, first presented here.

As part of the prep work to position short, the question was whether to short XOP, or one of the big caps.

As you can be seen, since XOM-25-01, is in the sidebar, we’ve gone short Exxon during yesterday’s session (not advice, not a recommendation).

As the chart shows, there was a small gap lower yesterday, presenting the risk that it would be filled before action continued lower.

That might still happen.

However, with XOM down 1.83 pts., in the pre-market (as of 9:12 a.m., EST), upside probabilities have lessened.

Exxon XOM, Daily

We have what appears to be, a picture-perfect Wyckoff up-thrust, and reversal.

If yesterday’s gap-lower open is not filled, then it’s a ‘breakaway’ gap, indicating (probability for) much lower prices ahead (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

May 11, 2025 By in CLM25, GCM25, Gold & Silver, Oil, Oil & Gas, SIN25, XOP, ZeroHedge

Gold, Silver & The Oil Patch

Both gold (GCM25), and silver (SIN25), have opened lower and are currently (as of 7:35 p.m., EST) holding steady.

Oil (CLM25), is ever so slightly higher; that’s the sector we’ll focus on, in this update.

Starting with this post from last week.

That update had two target areas (the gaps) identified; so far, as the chart shows, we’re in range of the first target.

Oil & Gas Sector ETF, XOP, Daily

XOP, is a 24/5 (EXTO Eligible) vehicle and is currently trading at 118.9, vs., Friday’s close at 118.84.

The chart shows action as of last Friday’s close.

Remember, we’re looking for something very specific, like this set-up in the Health Care Sector, link here.

Lastly, we have this just out on ZeroHedge. The economy is slowing (not advice, not a recommendation).

Website link is here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Health Care Reversal … Example

May 6, 2025 By in Federal Reserve, Health Care, Interest Rates, Oil, Oil & Gas, Positions, XLV, XLV-25-03, XOP 3 Comments

Looking For The Oil Patch

The Healthcare Sector (XLV) has reversed hard to the downside.

The set-up: Blue line resistance, penetrated during a breakout, then failing.

That’s what we’re looking for in Oil Sector, XOP.

While we wait, XOP looks to be quite weak, and the breakout may never come.

Tomorrow, we have the Fed announcement. That might provide some XOP upside, however temporary (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Oil Sector (short) Target

May 5, 2025 By in CLM25, Oil, Oil & Gas, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XOP 1 Comment

Looking For The Breakout … That Fails

At this juncture, oil futures are in a minor ‘spring’ position, ready to move higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

The gap lower open discussed in last night’s update, has been closed (as expected).

What we’re looking for now (for potential XOP short), is a push higher in the futures (CLM25) to the 60 – 61 area.

Oil & Gas Sector ETF, XOP, Daily

At mid-session, XOP is trading right at resistance.

Note: Two gaps straddle the wide-high volume bar of April 3rd. As we know, wide, high-volume bars, tend to be tested.

That’s what we’re looking for.

An upside test of at least one of the gaps that fails; thus creating a Wyckoff up-thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

May 4, 2025 By in CLM25, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Oil, Oil & Gas, SLV, XOP Tags: 1 Comment

Gold, Silver & The Oil Patch

We’re about three-hours into the Sunday overnight session and here’s what’s happening, and what’s not.

Both gold and silver are holding steady; oil, has opened gap-down, trading lower by -3.4%.

Yesterday’s update showed the oil patch to be ‘exceptionally’ weak. The Sunday night open, is confirming that assessment (not advice, not a recommendation).

Market Directed Action

The market itself tells us where to go for opportunity.

At this point, it’s telling us to focus on the oil sector.

Looking at the futures contract, CLM25, there’s not a single major gap that has not been filled or nearly filled.

That tells us, probabilities point to some kind of upward move (to close the gap) which in turn, tells us to monitor the sector (ETF) index, XOP.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Oil Patch (short)

May 3, 2025 By in Oil, Oil & Gas, XOP 2 Comments

Tricks of The Trade

During the ‘tariff’ meltdown, the oil patch XOP, took a hit right along with (nearly) everyone else.

Then, the markets began to recover. The oil sector … not so much.

When looking at that ‘recovery’ with respect to the highs of mid-June 2022, XOP, has only retraced Fibonacci 23.6%, located (approximately) just below the blue resistance line.

Oil & Gas Sector XOP, Weekly

Price action has yet to push significantly above the ‘short squeeze’ level, posted during the week of April 11th.

In fact, when compared to recovery action in other markets, this one is exceptionally weak (not advice, not a recommendation).

Next, we’ll look at the daily chart and identify possible up-coming targets for short positioning (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Corn, Nat-Gas, Oil, … Higher

January 12, 2025 By in Corn, GLD, Gold & Silver, Inflation, Oil, Oil & Gas, Palladium, Platinum, SLV, SOYB, USO Tags: , , , ,

A Commodity Rotation?

Those commodities, along with soybeans, palladium, platinum, and yes, gold and silver, have rotated higher in unison, over the past one-to-two weeks.

Is it just a coincidental blip or is there something else?

Each may have their own narrative like the ever-present and (super) simplified mantra for gold, ‘inflation’.

What about silver, platinum and palladium?

They have not followed in the (real inflation) footsteps of late 70s and early 80s, where all were moving in tandem.

This time, only gold is at or near all-time highs.

This update is just noting the rotating action of all the commodities discussed.

Further analysis, to come

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas … Trend & Channel

September 16, 2024 By in Natural Gas, Oil, Oil & Gas, UNG, USO

Bottom Pattern, ‘W’

Nat-Gas is in a trend and potential channel.

Going back to this post, one reason given for continued lower prices in Nat-Gas, was the high price of oil: with Nat-Gas being a by-product of oil production.

Since that post, oil prices (USO) have dropped, and Nat-gas prices are on the rise.

Natural Gas UNG, Daily

The two dashed black lines are trend and channel.

There’s also a ‘W’ bottom formed; if broken to the upside, targets the ‘Measured Move’ as shown (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279