Category Archives: Spring-to-Up-Thrust

Sunday Night Futures

August 24, 2025 By in BAC, Federal Reserve, Financial Sector, Interest Rates, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XLF 1 Comment

Bank of America & XLF

It’s no secret, Warren Buffet has been selling BAC, shares for some time; more recently, here.

The hard part is, how does one map that to price action?

Or does his selling have any material effect.

From a Wyckoff standpoint, we put that information in the background.

It’s there, we’re aware of it, but the focus is on price action itself.

So, let’s take a look.

BAC is a heavy weighting the in financial sector, with index tracking fund XLF, as a good vehicle for analysis.

That ETF just printed an all-time high this past Friday.

Financials XLF, Daily

Friday’s Fed announcement could be a significant infection.

Of course, the media is all aboard with a September cut, providing endless opinions on how to trade something that has not even happened.

What we’re looking for on this site, is some evidence of a reversal. We’re looking to see if price action stalls in not only the XLF, but the other major sectors as well.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Test & Reverse

August 19, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, CVNA-25-11, KMX, Livermore, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

On A Closing Basis

The goings-on, in the car market, new or used, are unprecedented, link here.

The video is clear; the market has already imploded.

Carmax (KMX) seems to be an accurate reflection of that, with it being down over -62%, from its all-time highs.

However, for some mysterious reason that’s (almost) sure to come out later, Carvana, is only down only -17%, from its all-time highs.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

On a close basis, CVNA tested resistance, posted an up-thrust on the 18th, then reversed.

Adding to the intrigue, that up-thrust was on Fibonacci Day 13, from all-time highs.

Referring back to Livermore’s criteria, link here, if the trade meets requirements (i.e., up-thrust), then execute.

In this case, that meant to go short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Short trade: CVNA-25-11, with stop at today’s session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Goldman, ‘Yes’ … Dow, ‘No’?

August 16, 2025 By in DIA, DIA-25-03, Dow 30, Goldman, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, ZeroHedge

What Does The Market Say?

According to Goldman Sachs, link here, they’re calling for continued upside.

Anything can happen.

For those on this site, the focus is not on what anybody’s saying, but what’s the market actually doing?

We’ll use the Dow 30 proxy DIA, for this update.

Dow 30 ETF, DIA, Daily

Repeating pattern: Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.

The Dow has been struggling each time it gets to this resistance area, since December of last year.

Friday was a gap-higher at the open, then retrace, closing below resistance (upper blue line).

From a risk on a short position, it’s clear. The stop would be last Friday’s high.

Currently short as DIA-25-03, with stop just above DIA 452.05 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Stop & Drop

August 15, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, Positions, Richie Naso, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-11, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, XBI, XBI-25-01 2 Comments

Fibonacci, ‘Day 89’

Trading legend, Richie Naso says the ‘algorithms control the market’.

He also says, they’re trained to go to technical areas.

Are they also trained to ‘count’?

Or does the count just materialize as a natural outcome of controlling the market?

Three days ago, was this post, showing a probable outcome for the SOXX.

Both time, and distance, were projected; time, as in Fibonacci Day 89, and distance as in Fibonacci projection to the 261.8% level (April 7th, lows).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Yesterday, was ‘Day 89’.

Today’s close was below yesterday’s low and below resistance (upper blue line).

The Fibonacci 261.8% projection was to (approx.) 259.

Yesterday’s high was 255.06, a difference of just 1.54%.

Currently short, as SOXX-25-11; hard stop at the session high (not advice not a recommendation).

Separately, XBI-25-01 was closed as it continued to edge higher. Today is XBI’s own ‘Day 89’ from the April 9th, lows (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The HOOD, Tests its Reversal

August 14, 2025 By in HOOD, HOOD-25-04, Positions, Retail Investor, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Repeating Pattern

The last update on HOOD, said there’s a potential trading channel, link here.

The next day, price action negated that channel with a break to the upside.

That upside now looks like a ‘spring’, leading straight into an ‘up-thrust’; a repeating pattern.

HOOD reversed from its highs and today, looks to be testing that breakdown.

Volume for this session contracted by -37.5%, when compared to yesterday.

Robinhood, HOOD, Daily

From a trading perspective, a short was opened yesterday; HOOD-25-04.

Position size was increased today as price action was rising into its test (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Mind Games

August 12, 2025 By in 1929, Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Uneducated Economist 4 Comments

On A Colossal Scale

‘The are just making it all up’, link here (time stamp: 10:12).

‘Doing it on purpose’ (time stamp 11:50).

The statements were referring to the financial ‘media’.

The ability of the media to manipulate the herd with such ease is shocking and disappointing at the same time.

One has to wonder, was it like this in 1929?

Moving on to the A.I. mania, we have yet another potential high in the SOXX … today or tomorrow (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Tomorrow, is Fibonacci Day 89, from the April 7th, lows.

Another set-up, with Fibonacci target.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners … In The ‘Pattern’

August 11, 2025 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, GXZ25, Inflation, JDST, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Was That, The Top?

Inflation reports are released tomorrow, link here.

That release may be an inflection point for the miners.

This past Friday, GCZ25, posted an all-time high, then reversal; in the early session today, it’s continuing lower.

From a Wyckoff standpoint, what’s in the inflation reports is immaterial. The real question is, ‘what’s the market saying about itself?’

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

Repeating pattern, Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

Pre-market action (8:34 a.m., EST) shows a lower open.

If we open lower, the short entry objective, is to wait for action to move higher in an attempt to close the (potential) gap (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

UBER & Earnings

August 6, 2025 By in Ed Dowd, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, UBER, Wyckoff

Downside Pressure

UBER’s earnings were stellar; why’s the stock heading lower?

From a Wyckoff analysis perspective, the question’s not relevant.

We pay no attention to financial news, or news of any kind.

The real question, ‘What’s the market saying about itself?’

UBER, Daily

The repeating pattern, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.

On a longer, monthly timeframe (not shown), there’s a massive MACD bearish divergence; telling us, opportunity favors the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

To minimize risk as much as possible, we’re looking for price action to rise into the close, narrowing the distance between entry and stop.

The stop would be (if a trade is placed) at today’s session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Economic Conditions.

Another interview with Ed Dowd, has surfaced, link here.

As one of the comments noted, ‘this is the best synopsis of actual market conditions presented, to-date’.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CarMax Implodes, Carvana, Next?

August 4, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-09, KMX, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Swan Dive, to The Street

Something’s very wrong between CarMax, and Carvana.

CarMax’s annual sales are effectively twice that of Carvana; 26.5bln, vs. 13.67bln; source here and here.

CarMax printed its all-time highs years ago, now down over -64% from those highs.

However, just last week, Carvana posted all-time highs.

Adding to that, with half the sales of CarMax, Carvana’s market cap, is effectively ten times larger, than CarMax (source TC2000).

How does that work?

Is Carvana about to join CarMax, to the downside?

Carvana CVNA, Daily

There’s a lot going on in this chart.

First, we have the set-up, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.

Next, the print and retreat from all-time highs (last Thursday).

Now, we have downside continuation with a potential trendline.

As this post is being created, CVNA, continues down; trading at 355.28 (as of 10:52 a.m., EST), down -3.41%

Maintaining short, as CVNA-25-09; stop to be moved lower to today’s session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … On The Road Again

August 2, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Heading To The Set-Up

For a while, it looked like the last update’s conclusions were incorrect; that biotech (XBI), was not going to make it to up-thrust condition.

Then, we had Friday’s action, a textbook reversal bar.

So, now, it looks like there’s potential to get back on track to the target area (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

Price action penetrated support, XBI is now in ‘spring position’.

After Friday’s downswing for the overall markets, there could be some upside bias early in the week (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279