Category Archives: ZeroHedge

Economic ‘Implosion’

January 15, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Great Depression 2.0, LABD, LABD-25-01, SPBIO, Uneducated Economist, Wyckoff, XBI, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Collapsing On Several Fronts

‘Retail’, selling silver, link here.

Jewelry whacked, link here.

Loan Shark, link here.

You know it’s bad when booze takes a hit, link here and here.

Producer prices launch higher, link here.

Lumber prices collapse, again, link here.

Travel restrictions, link here.

Then, there are ‘valuations’, link here.

Also then, there’s this, link here.

Lastly, short squeezes and liquidity traps … bear market behavior, link here.

Speaking of ‘short squeeze’, we had biotech do just that in the pre-market (and regular) session.

Biotech XBI, Daily

If it really is/was a short squeeze, once shorts are covered, the expectation is for price to continue lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Included in the chart, is a bit of insight you’re not likely to find anywhere else.

Note the distance of each retrace after a leg down. Less each time and Fibonacci multiples.

As stated yesterday, XBI posted outside down. That means price action penetrated the lows of the prior session and closed lower.

As wild as it may seem, penetrating the lows and closing lower, put XBI in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

That’s what we saw with today’s action.

As this post is being created (11:45 a.m., EST), XBI action continues to erode to the downside currently trading at the 87.60 – area.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Downside Leader … Biotech

January 14, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, IBB, IWM, LABD-25-01, Russell 2000, SPBIO, TZA, TZA-25-01, Wyckoff, XBI, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Confirming, Right-Side Channel

It’s a recurring theme with biotech.

Over and again, this sector (IBB, XBI) is not participating in tandem with the other major indices.

Today’s pre-market mayhem higher over supposed slower outlays of possible trade tariffs to happen some-time, some-day, caused the major indices to launch upward. 🙂

Well, everybody seemed to be blasting higher except one sector, biotech.

Wyckoff Directed Action

No matter what the ‘narrative’ may be, Wyckoff analysis directs us to look at what the market is actually doing, then interpret the action.

Early after the open, trade TZA-25-01, was exited, +8.9% gain, short position opened in biotech via LABD, Trade: LABD-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

Today posted outside down, taking out both the high and low of the prior session.

Note the trading channel and width, Fibonacci 13-Days.

Also note the two ‘breakaway gaps’. The second one on January 10th, much wider than November 12th, last year.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech, Accelerates … Down

December 31, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, Livermore, SPBIO, XBI, ZeroHedge

A New Trendline?

Well, ladies and gentlemen, it’s like the Keystone Cops out there.

One side doesn’t think anything bad is going to happen.

The other side, says there’s an implosion coming, if not already here.

Yet another, somewhat honest, saying it doesn’t know but that it will be ‘messy’.

How about we just look at what the market’s actually telling us. That’s a novel idea. 🙂

Iterative Process

As the year comes to a close, it’s (now) obvious, what took place for most of 2024, was a process of iteration.

Working to position for the downside was not the question. Identifying the ‘best opportunity’, was.

Strategy Re-Cap:

Using Livermore’s insight, we assess ‘general conditions’.

With that, came the bearish stance. Then, what tuned out to be an iterative search for (short) opportunities.

That search culminated with trade LABD-24-21, still active (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, here we are.

Biotech XBI, Daily

We’re about two-hours before the close; XBI, has posted a new daily high, and low, threating with ‘outside down’.

We can see the potential ‘channel-within-a-channel’.

The Weeks, Ahead

The coming weeks may hint at what’s likely for the year.

If we don’t get a ‘January effect’ or it gets negated, that in itself gives us a bearish clue (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Massive’ Short Squeeze, Really?

December 21, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, XBI, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Hey, Rocky! … Watch Me Pull Hyperbole Out of my Hat

The financial press says, on Friday, the shorts got slaughtered.

Is that true, or just more hyperbole?

To find out, we’ll take a look at the active short in biotech XBI, and see if there was a ‘slaughter’, or something more constructive.

Biotech XBI, Daily

The last post inferred, ‘there’s no end in sight’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Is that still true?

A present, we have a channel (with center-line) whose sections are a Fibonacci multiple.

If the channel is still in effect and the next session does not decisively break to the upside, then we can see price action is testing and validation that right side.

The good part or scary part depending on one’s perspective, XBI is validating the ‘supply’ side of the channel (where selling occurs).

Way down lower, is the ‘demand’ side … way down.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Breakdown

December 11, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, XBI, ZeroHedge

Is The Channel Confirmed?

While confusion in the rest of the market rages on, Trump-bump, no-bump, consumer optimism never higher, back at the ranch, biotech XBI, is posting some ominous signs (not advice, not a recommendation).

With a backdrop of ‘the jig is up’ for some sectors, it’s possible, biotech is part of that (potential) long term reversal as well.

Biotech XBI, Daily

The work has already been done, showing the potential of a significant reversal, link here.

As stated in previous posts, the corporate account is positioned short; tracked via LABD-24-21, in the side bar above (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Short Squeeze ‘Exhaustion’

December 8, 2024 By in Car Questions Answered, KMX, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Anybody Left, To Cover?

Has the market extracted just about all it can from the shorts?

Is the ‘consumer’ giving it the ‘last hurrah?

Are autos, real estate, about to implode?

When, will the plug be pulled?

The problem is, in the markets, when the plug (really) is pulled, it’s too late to get into a low-risk short position.

That work needs to be done ahead of time.

All of which, brings us to CarMax.

Company earnings are coming up in nine trading days, before the open.

CarMax KMX, Weekly

Let’s see if KMX, uses earnings as an ‘excuse’ for launch to 38.2% retrace level (or higher).

If or when that happens, it’s what happens next, that will tell us if there’s an opportunity to go short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Copper’s (economic) Warning

December 7, 2024 By in Copper, FCX, ZeroHedge

As Copper Goes …

We’ve all heard the saying:

‘As copper goes, so goes the economy’.

While the financial press attempts to figure out the ‘real economy‘, one barometer of said economy, has already headed lower.

Copper’s initial top, more specifically, Freeport-McMoRan Inc., (FCX), was first covered in this post.

It’s been a struggle ever since.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc., FCX Weekly

The original ‘Up-Thrust’ data point is shown along with a (potential) terminating wedge.

After the top, were several tests higher; all have failed.

Now we’re at the wedge boundary, set for a breakdown (not advice, not a recommendation).

Looks like FCX, is showing us the ‘real economy’.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … Slammed !!!

November 16, 2024 By in Dollar, Gold & Silver, Great Depression 2.0, SLV, UUP, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge, zsl Tags: , , 1 Comment

What’s Next?

We can see how the typical ‘investor’ would be angry; having believed the hype about silver’s imminent ‘hyperinflation’ launch.

Pontificating hype like, silver’s going to ‘catch up’ with gold, ‘go along for the ride’, ‘close the gap’, massive ‘physical demand’.

Well, this so–called ‘launch’ (so far), is not only not happening, but appears to be in a bearish divergence downside reversal … What???

Setting The Stage

From the recent high set on October 22-nd, to the close on Friday, Silver (SLV) is down -13.3%, a decent hit, but not quite a wipe-out, yet.

Putting that brief opportunity in perspective, during the same period 2X Inverse Fund ZSL, is up over 31.5%.

For a clue on what might be coming next, we’ll go to this anecdote, link here.

The so-called ‘environmentalists’ don’t even believe their own hype.

Not only that, if we’re already in an economic collapse, then silver, an industrial metal, is subject to the same forces.

Pulling Back The Curtain

If or when the new administration takes office (January 20th, is a long way away), we can expect a lot of truth (but not all of it) to come out.

That’s already starting, with the blow-up in biotech.

Random Thought: Wasn’t the dollar supposed to collapse by now? But, I digress.

Lets’ get back to silver (SLV), and what the price action is telling us.

Silver SLV, Weekly

With the situation below, what’s the most likely event for the coming week?

We’ve had four down-weeks in a row. Price action’s at the wedge boundary (blue line) and minor support (black dashed line).

Last week was a narrow range bar with less overall volume than the week prior.

Therefore, the most likely event, is an attempt to retrace the prior four weeks of down action (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Rate-ing Game

November 2, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, TLT, ZeroHedge Tags: , ,

Rates Spike Big Time … Who Could Have Guessed?

Let’s use the ‘Way Back’ machine with Mr. Peabody and return to this post.

Back in mid-August, that analysis presented rates heading higher (not lower), as more probable.

One month after that, this update showed a ‘terminating wedge’ in the bond market, TLT.

Now, two and a half months after the first post, the rate spike’s hitting the news.

Once again, you have to ‘subscribe‘ to find out what’s already happened. Hmmm

Contrary Indicator

The fact rates are just now in the mainstream, could (as we’ll see below) indicate a potential hesitation of downside or an upside retrace.

Long Bonds TLT, Daily Close

We’ll start first with the original ‘wedge’ post.

Now, for the updated version.

Obviously, there’s a lot going on in the chart.

Price action blew-through the measured move and has (potentially) culminated in a downside wash-out.

Or, behind Door Number 2, it could be a signal, rates are about to press-on higher like a juggernaut (not advice, not a recommendation)

The Fed Rides Again

Remember our last post on the Fed (possibly reversing the reversal), said to get your popcorn ready.

Looks like the show’s about to start.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … Stretched

October 21, 2024 By in Bonds, DRV, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, IYR, Real Estate, SRS, TLT, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Massive Wedge Pattern

Bonds (TLT) reversed on 9/17/24, the day before the Fed ‘cut’ and never looked back.

Rates continue to rise.

Meanwhile, real estate (IYR), has been whistling past the graveyard; that is, until now.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

If the wedge is in-effect and we’re in a throw-over about to return into the pattern, it signals a very bearish condition (not advice, not a recommendation).

Even the illustrious financial press is starting to catch on that something’s not quite right. 🙂

Of course, you have to ‘subscribe’ for information like this.

As for this site, the current (bond) reversal was first identified and discussed, here.

Back then …

“Looking at the Fed calendar, link here, it’s a very interesting date; ‘the day after’ November 5th.

Let’s see if the ‘rate cut’ is immediately reversed (not advice, not a recommendation).”

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279