Tag Archives: finance

The CarMax Question

December 19, 2024 By in Biotech, Car Questions Answered, Interest Rates, KMX, Real Estate, Russell 2000 Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Something’s Not Right

If the future’s so bright for CarMax, with them beating estimates for earnings and revenue, link here, why did it sell-off immediately after the open?

Trading, (as of 12:20 p.m., EST) currently at 85.15, below well-established resistance.

As we’ve seen by now, relying on financial numbers, any numbers, is akin to a ‘snipe hunt’ (remember those?).

The prior update on KMX, said this:

“Let’s see if KMX, uses earnings as an ‘excuse’ for launch to 38.2% retrace level (or higher).”

Adding to that, we had ‘boots on the ground’, like this.

Now, based on price action, we have the potential ‘false breakout’, exactly as was forecast, link here (not advice, not a recommendation).

CarMax KMX, Weekly

The breakout appears to be failing or has failed already (not advice, not a recommendation).

With other markets in full-blown melt-down like biotech, real estate, interest rates and the Russell, it’s possible CarMax adds one more economic reality to the mix no matter what the ‘numbers’ say (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver/Gold Miners (crash) Channel

December 18, 2024 By in GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, SILJ Tags: , , , ,

Unfolding Quickly

The past two months have seen the miners, GDX, GDXJ, SILJ, reverse down, hit a low, then upside test and now, reverse down again.

For years, the big picture analysis of this sector has been consistently bearish.

Sure, there we upside opportunities but the (more) dynamic moves were to the downside.

All of which, brings us to now.

Senior Miners GDX, Weekly

A sideways market is a bear market; that’s what we’ve had for over four years (not advice, not a recommendation).

A ‘terminating wedge’ taking a year to form has broken to the downside.

Then, an upward recovery (test), that reversed last week, continuing to the downside this week.

Looking to the left on the chart, we see the ‘repeating’ channel.

This notation shows a down-channel of this type has happened before. The market itself, has set its own precedent.

At this juncture, this week’s right -side channel line is declining at approximately -95%, annualized.

Decide for yourself if that type of trend constitutes a ‘crash’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Seven-Year ‘Wedge’

December 15, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, 2007 - 2008, Biotech, Bonds, DHI, Interest Rates, LABD, LABD-24-16, SPBIO, TLT, XBI Tags: , , , ,

Massive Top Formation

D.R. Horton, (DHI) is the largest cap in the Residential Construction Sector (www.tc2000.com).

During the last blow-up (2005 – 2008), DHI, declined top-to-bottom over -91%.

Will it be different this time?

One thing that’s likely, the next implosion could be hit with widespread market and broker outages (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last (notable) time was here.

As far as known, feel free to comment to the contrary, this site’s the only one that incorporates outage potential (and reality) into its trading plan.

Case in point is this link.

The firm’s trade records show, on that Monday, the account was short: LABD-24-16.

The broker outage and panic helped the position. The trade was closed on August 8th, with a profit of 11.15%.

Enough said, let’s move on.

D.R. Horton DHI, Monthly

There it is, seven-years in the making.

We’re at the lower wedge boundary now.

Recently, bonds (TLT) had a minor move higher (rates lower), lasting two-weeks.

However, last week, TLT reversed down and eclipsed the previous two-weeks of gains.

Rates are now moving higher … again.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CarMax Nears Breakout

December 3, 2024 By in Car Questions Answered, KMX, Wyckoff Tags: ,

A False Breakout?

A data-point of one, may not be significant unless that ‘data-point’, is repeated over and over.

That brings us to this link.

Do we have a ‘one-off’ event or is the data point being repeated?

To help answer, this site’s been monitoring what should be one of the fastest selling (used) cars in the market, Toyota Camry.

Scanning the CarMax inventory of Camry’s has the same cars (with minor changes) still for sale, since August, at elevated prices no -less.

Seems to corroborate the link above and makes you wonder what’s (really) happening?

With that, let’s move on to the potential opportunity.

CarMax KMX, Weekly

There’s a lot going on in this chart.”

“What do you see?”

The wedge is obvious.

Maybe a little more subtle until it’s pointed out, huge volume churn since the breakdown during the week of September 30th, 2022.

That’s over two-years of potential distribution.

From a Wyckoff standpoint using his ‘Cause and Effect’ analogy, whatever’s about to happen to KMX, it’s setting itself up for a potential, sustained, long-duration move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Earnings Release

Earnings scheduled for December 19th, before the open.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX Rolls Over

November 26, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX Tags: , , ,

The Big One?

It’s been a long time coming.

The next down-leg in the SOXX, and A.I., bubble, may be at hand (not advice, not a recommendation).

Many factors coming together; Fibonacci projections, retrace levels and time sequences; price action posting and defining trend lines and trading channels.

With that, let’s take a look at what the SOXX, is saying about itself.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

We’re half-way though today’s session, anything can happen. Even so, the test and reversal are clear.

What also may be in the making, is the verification of the trading channel shown.

The channel has its own Fibonacci count(s).

One part, Fibonacci 5-days wide, another, Fibonacci 8 days, for a total of Fibonacci 13-days.

Positioning

For those following this site on a daily basis, you already know, this sector’s been sold (short) via leveraged inverse fund SOXS (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade number is, SOXS-24-20, in the sidebar, above.

The short was initiated with this update, shown above in the chart. It was maintained throughout the gyrations of the ‘election’ and aftermath.

Now, we wait.

If nothing else, and the trade falls apart, today’s session high in the SOXX, is an excellent place for a stop (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The SOXX ‘Pop’

November 25, 2024 By in 2000 - 2001, Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: , , ,

Testing The Underside

After the ‘test’, is that when the plug is pulled?

It’s the market’s job to frustrate (nearly) every single participant, bull or bear, into submission, into giving up and exiting just before the real move gets underway.

How many times have you heard (or experienced) the following:

“The market stopped me out, then took off for a huge gain … without me”.

Experience (i.e. many losses) is the ability to know when the trade (premise) is broken or just going through a test. 🙂

Looking at the SOXX, it’s a compelling (test) picture (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly

Prior updates (here and here) have shown the similarities of the A.I. bubble to the dot-com bubble of the 2000s.

One of the events watched for, was the ‘trend break’.

As of today, the market is currently testing that break.

The fact we have a new weekly (retrace) high as well, presents a Fibonacci time correlation.

This week is Fibonacci 21-weeks from the all-time-high in the SOXX.

A downside reversal from this point may indeed tell us, ‘The plug has been pulled’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Squeeze The Squeeze

November 23, 2024 By in CVNA, KMX Tags: , , , ,

… And Then, There’s CarMax

How long before the wheels come off?

As of Friday’s close, Carvana boasts a P/E, of 30,876.

Meanwhile, Carvana’s nearest competitor CarMax, has a P/E of 31.79, which in itself, is a bit sporty.

Caravana’s sales are less than half that of CarMax, yet its market cap is over three-times larger (source, www.tc2000.com)

Carvana’s ‘vending machine’ disruptive technology looks like it’s ‘worth’ an extra 97,000%, added to its P/E valuation (obviously, not advice, not a recommendation).

At the end of October, was this post, indicating Carvana may be in its final squeeze.

Since then, Carvana has inched itself higher.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

The two charts show that demand as measured by volume (spikes) has diminished significantly.

Moving in closer, we’ll look at a potential up-thrust set-up.

If we have just seen (or are in) the final thrust higher, the expectation is for price action to reverse down, then test the underside of resistance (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana’s earnings release is not until February next year, but CarMax, that’s a different story.

CarMax is set to post earnings on December 19th (or 20th), this year, during market hours.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A Top for Tesla

November 19, 2024 By in TSLA Tags: , , , ,

Et Tu Tesla?

Everything seems to be happening (or about to happen) all at once.

Those in the know like Buffett, are selling (the market) and continuing to sell, link here.

Boots on the ground, warning of the unexpected things that (may) go bump in the night; the U.S. bond market, link here, time stamp: 12:00.

So, it may be with Tesla as well.

Anyone with two Lithium Ions rubbing together should know by now, the auto market is in ‘transition’.

Tesla TSLA, Weekly

Looking at the chart, it appears Tesla may be in ‘transition’ as well. 🙂

This update is not identifying a specific or potentially long-term reversal; only that TSLA, is at The Danger Point®.

It may be quite easy in a market sense, to initiate a directional change to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘No Hurry’ for Lower Rates

November 17, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, TBT, TLT Tags: , , , ,

Of Course, Not

The Fed’s not about to tell anyone, what they (really) do, is follow the bond market.

When looking at ETF proxy for long bonds, TLT (below), one could infer, by late January, Fed rates may start going back up (not advice, not a recommendation).

Since we’ve entered a time where long secret (or obscured) truths are now revealed, it might just be, the public discovers (en masse) the emperor has no clothes.

Steve Poplar at ‘The Poplar Report’ has it figured out (time stamp 12:00, link here).

With that, let’s look at the bond market and see what it’s saying about itself.

Long Bonds, TLT, Weekly Close

Price action appears to be breaking down out of a wedge.

The potential?

Higher interest rates going into year-end (not advice, not a recommendation).

The result: fewer autos sold/financed, fewer homes sold/financed and possibly much less spending on Christmas.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Trading The ‘Crash Channel’

November 9, 2024 By in 1907, 2000 - 2001, Artificial Intelligence, Dr. Elder, Elliott Wave, Great Depression 2.0, Livermore, QQQ, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX Tags: , , , ,

‘The Big Money’s in, The Big Move’ … Dr. Elder

The whole quote from Elder (paraphrasing):

‘The big money is in the big move but only the top-tier trader or speculator has the ability and skill to trade it…’

This ‘big money’ idea is exactly what Jesse Livermore figured out as part of his plan after years of making ‘piking bets’ on minor price fluctuations.

Ultimately, his method was to anticipate events about to happen in a ‘big way’.

He netted over $1 million, during the Panic of 1907, probably his best example of trading the big move.

Note: $1-mil, in 1907, is about $32-mil, today.

Here’s a chart of the ‘Panic‘.

Look how similar it is, to the chart of the QQQ bubble and the current position of the SOXX; except the (potential) wipe-out, of course. 🙂

Back at the 2000, bubble top in the Qs, we have the following.

Nasdaq QQQ, Weekly

Several trading channels can be identified; the most aggressive, is the one shown.

The channel above, lasted nearly three-months, from week-ending 1/26/01, to week-ending 4/6/01.

Note that price action rose for about three weeks in a ‘January Effect’ at the beginning of ’01, before rolling over in a big way.

There’s a lot going on in this chart. For example, the January effect rise took the Qs back to a Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace of the entire down move.

Strategy

The coming days and weeks are going to let us know if the SOXX, is modeling the mania bubbles of the past (not advice, not a recommendation).

A possible important distinction: In the prior update, the SOXX, had two massive down-thrusts, not just one.

One could even argue there were three (week ending 7/19/24).

Does that mean we’re at an order of magnitude larger on what comes next?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279