Tag Archives: investing

Carvana Cracks

December 22, 2024 By in CVNA, KMX, The Epoch Times, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Same As It Ever Was?

It’s a market smorgasbord of opportunities but for this site, it’s not to the upside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s get started with this:

‘The economy’s doing great, same as it ever was’

Just to remind us how great it is, is this, link here.

Moving on to the poster child of the day, Carvana.

As expected, the CarMax (KMX) earnings release, affected not only CarMax, but Carvana’s price action as well.

The last update on Carvana said to be on the lookout for a reversal based on the lack of volatility alone.

Well, that’s what happened, and volatility has increased.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The question now: CVNA price action has declined and penetrated established support, putting it in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

Will there be one (potential) last ‘blip’ higher?

Of course, CVNA could head down from here.

Price action over the next few days, will let us know the most likely outcome.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Down … No End In Sight

December 20, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI, XBI-24-01 Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Parallel Channels

Moves that take years to develop, once started, can go on much longer than anyone would expect.

Depending on your viewpoint, biotech XBI, has been congesting sideways (in a range) from one-to-three years.

Either way, the current breakdown suggests the potential for a sustained down trend (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

Remember, Wyckoff said the market itself, will tell us what levels and trendlines are significant.

If the current (right-side) channel is valid, the market itself shows us a similar channel in the past.

Two things to note.

First: Record Volume

As far as known (source, TC2000), November 15th’s volume of 30.3 million, was the largest ever recorded for the XBI:

That’s ‘thirty-point-three’ (thirty-three), you can’t make this stuff up. 🙂

Second: Short Position

There were two attempts to short this market.

Trade: XBI-24-01

Actual, sell-short, closed with -0.40%, loss

Trade: LABD-24-21

Leveraged inverse fund LABD, currently open with +27.31%, profit (as of 9:02 a.m., EST).

Volatility & Leveraged Inverse

The objective is to trade short using LABD, for as long as practical (not advice, not a recommendation).

If the XBI begins to get volatile with wide swings and chop either up or down, slippage-decay on inverse funds becomes prohibitive.

LABD-24-21 may be exited at any time, without notice.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver/Gold Miners (crash) Channel

December 18, 2024 By in GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, SILJ Tags: , , , ,

Unfolding Quickly

The past two months have seen the miners, GDX, GDXJ, SILJ, reverse down, hit a low, then upside test and now, reverse down again.

For years, the big picture analysis of this sector has been consistently bearish.

Sure, there we upside opportunities but the (more) dynamic moves were to the downside.

All of which, brings us to now.

Senior Miners GDX, Weekly

A sideways market is a bear market; that’s what we’ve had for over four years (not advice, not a recommendation).

A ‘terminating wedge’ taking a year to form has broken to the downside.

Then, an upward recovery (test), that reversed last week, continuing to the downside this week.

Looking to the left on the chart, we see the ‘repeating’ channel.

This notation shows a down-channel of this type has happened before. The market itself, has set its own precedent.

At this juncture, this week’s right -side channel line is declining at approximately -95%, annualized.

Decide for yourself if that type of trend constitutes a ‘crash’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Seven-Year ‘Wedge’

December 15, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, 2007 - 2008, Biotech, Bonds, DHI, Interest Rates, LABD, LABD-24-16, SPBIO, TLT, XBI Tags: , , , ,

Massive Top Formation

D.R. Horton, (DHI) is the largest cap in the Residential Construction Sector (www.tc2000.com).

During the last blow-up (2005 – 2008), DHI, declined top-to-bottom over -91%.

Will it be different this time?

One thing that’s likely, the next implosion could be hit with widespread market and broker outages (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last (notable) time was here.

As far as known, feel free to comment to the contrary, this site’s the only one that incorporates outage potential (and reality) into its trading plan.

Case in point is this link.

The firm’s trade records show, on that Monday, the account was short: LABD-24-16.

The broker outage and panic helped the position. The trade was closed on August 8th, with a profit of 11.15%.

Enough said, let’s move on.

D.R. Horton DHI, Monthly

There it is, seven-years in the making.

We’re at the lower wedge boundary now.

Recently, bonds (TLT) had a minor move higher (rates lower), lasting two-weeks.

However, last week, TLT reversed down and eclipsed the previous two-weeks of gains.

Rates are now moving higher … again.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … To ‘Blip’ and Back

December 14, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, Silver Collapse, SLV, Solar Power Tags: , , , ,

A ‘Basic Material’

A ‘blip’ is all there was.

The last update on silver SLV (link here), had this to say:

“The 50% retrace area is shown. It will be interesting to see if SLV, gets that far.”

Well, SLV got that far, just barely, held for three days and then reversed, ending the week down.

While the hyperinflation mania rages on, click-bait by click-bait, the market itself tells us the truth … or the more probable truth.

That truth (below), silver (SLV), is poised for a series of downside reversals (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver SLV, Monthly

One ‘terminating wedge’ within another; upside Force (pressure) is declining and bearish divergent (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver may be considered a basic material like copper (also in decline) with over half of production used for industrial applications.

The COP-OUT

There’s dissent in the ranks.

As economies are stressed or fracture world-wide, the amount of free money available for ‘games’ essentially evaporates.

Case in point is here.

Already shown, the effects of economic decline (silver demand) with solar company bankruptcies, link here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Curtains For Biotech?

November 27, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Holiday Turns, LABD, SPBIO, The Daily Sceptic, The List, The Speck, XBI, XBI-24-01 Tags: , , 1 Comment

Today, Is ‘Day 13’

Strange things happen in the markets just before, during, or just after a holiday week.

This time is no different.

With all that’s gone on in the past few weeks, one gets a sense ‘the jig is up’.

One example of the curtain being pulled back on a well-established grift, is this unrelated, but related post, link here.

So, it could be with biotech.

The past two weeks look like a change of character (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

It’s been a Fibonacci 13-Days since the reversal on 11/11.

The sector has accelerated to the downside on record volume and now, is testing that break.

The ‘Axis Line’, is also the location of the 61.8%, retrace for the current down-move and test.

Although there’s been no new daily low to ‘confirm’ the test is complete, (upside) risk may be at a low.

Positioning

For reasons to be covered in a later update, this sector’s being shorted directly as opposed to using leveraged inverse LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade is labeled: XBI-24-01

Stop level for the short is (or will be) the session high, currently at XBI 99.79 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Squeeze The Squeeze

November 23, 2024 By in CVNA, KMX Tags: , , , ,

… And Then, There’s CarMax

How long before the wheels come off?

As of Friday’s close, Carvana boasts a P/E, of 30,876.

Meanwhile, Carvana’s nearest competitor CarMax, has a P/E of 31.79, which in itself, is a bit sporty.

Caravana’s sales are less than half that of CarMax, yet its market cap is over three-times larger (source, www.tc2000.com)

Carvana’s ‘vending machine’ disruptive technology looks like it’s ‘worth’ an extra 97,000%, added to its P/E valuation (obviously, not advice, not a recommendation).

At the end of October, was this post, indicating Carvana may be in its final squeeze.

Since then, Carvana has inched itself higher.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

The two charts show that demand as measured by volume (spikes) has diminished significantly.

Moving in closer, we’ll look at a potential up-thrust set-up.

If we have just seen (or are in) the final thrust higher, the expectation is for price action to reverse down, then test the underside of resistance (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana’s earnings release is not until February next year, but CarMax, that’s a different story.

CarMax is set to post earnings on December 19th (or 20th), this year, during market hours.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A Top for Tesla

November 19, 2024 By in TSLA Tags: , , , ,

Et Tu Tesla?

Everything seems to be happening (or about to happen) all at once.

Those in the know like Buffett, are selling (the market) and continuing to sell, link here.

Boots on the ground, warning of the unexpected things that (may) go bump in the night; the U.S. bond market, link here, time stamp: 12:00.

So, it may be with Tesla as well.

Anyone with two Lithium Ions rubbing together should know by now, the auto market is in ‘transition’.

Tesla TSLA, Weekly

Looking at the chart, it appears Tesla may be in ‘transition’ as well. 🙂

This update is not identifying a specific or potentially long-term reversal; only that TSLA, is at The Danger Point®.

It may be quite easy in a market sense, to initiate a directional change to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘No Hurry’ for Lower Rates

November 17, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, TBT, TLT Tags: , , , ,

Of Course, Not

The Fed’s not about to tell anyone, what they (really) do, is follow the bond market.

When looking at ETF proxy for long bonds, TLT (below), one could infer, by late January, Fed rates may start going back up (not advice, not a recommendation).

Since we’ve entered a time where long secret (or obscured) truths are now revealed, it might just be, the public discovers (en masse) the emperor has no clothes.

Steve Poplar at ‘The Poplar Report’ has it figured out (time stamp 12:00, link here).

With that, let’s look at the bond market and see what it’s saying about itself.

Long Bonds, TLT, Weekly Close

Price action appears to be breaking down out of a wedge.

The potential?

Higher interest rates going into year-end (not advice, not a recommendation).

The result: fewer autos sold/financed, fewer homes sold/financed and possibly much less spending on Christmas.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … Slammed !!!

November 16, 2024 By in Dollar, Gold & Silver, Great Depression 2.0, SLV, UUP, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge, zsl Tags: , , 1 Comment

What’s Next?

We can see how the typical ‘investor’ would be angry; having believed the hype about silver’s imminent ‘hyperinflation’ launch.

Pontificating hype like, silver’s going to ‘catch up’ with gold, ‘go along for the ride’, ‘close the gap’, massive ‘physical demand’.

Well, this so–called ‘launch’ (so far), is not only not happening, but appears to be in a bearish divergence downside reversal … What???

Setting The Stage

From the recent high set on October 22-nd, to the close on Friday, Silver (SLV) is down -13.3%, a decent hit, but not quite a wipe-out, yet.

Putting that brief opportunity in perspective, during the same period 2X Inverse Fund ZSL, is up over 31.5%.

For a clue on what might be coming next, we’ll go to this anecdote, link here.

The so-called ‘environmentalists’ don’t even believe their own hype.

Not only that, if we’re already in an economic collapse, then silver, an industrial metal, is subject to the same forces.

Pulling Back The Curtain

If or when the new administration takes office (January 20th, is a long way away), we can expect a lot of truth (but not all of it) to come out.

That’s already starting, with the blow-up in biotech.

Random Thought: Wasn’t the dollar supposed to collapse by now? But, I digress.

Lets’ get back to silver (SLV), and what the price action is telling us.

Silver SLV, Weekly

With the situation below, what’s the most likely event for the coming week?

We’ve had four down-weeks in a row. Price action’s at the wedge boundary (blue line) and minor support (black dashed line).

Last week was a narrow range bar with less overall volume than the week prior.

Therefore, the most likely event, is an attempt to retrace the prior four weeks of down action (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279