Tag Archives: investing

A Top for Tesla

November 19, 2024 By in TSLA Tags: , , , ,

Et Tu Tesla?

Everything seems to be happening (or about to happen) all at once.

Those in the know like Buffett, are selling (the market) and continuing to sell, link here.

Boots on the ground, warning of the unexpected things that (may) go bump in the night; the U.S. bond market, link here, time stamp: 12:00.

So, it may be with Tesla as well.

Anyone with two Lithium Ions rubbing together should know by now, the auto market is in ‘transition’.

Tesla TSLA, Weekly

Looking at the chart, it appears Tesla may be in ‘transition’ as well. 🙂

This update is not identifying a specific or potentially long-term reversal; only that TSLA, is at The Danger Point®.

It may be quite easy in a market sense, to initiate a directional change to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘No Hurry’ for Lower Rates

November 17, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, TBT, TLT Tags: , , , ,

Of Course, Not

The Fed’s not about to tell anyone, what they (really) do, is follow the bond market.

When looking at ETF proxy for long bonds, TLT (below), one could infer, by late January, Fed rates may start going back up (not advice, not a recommendation).

Since we’ve entered a time where long secret (or obscured) truths are now revealed, it might just be, the public discovers (en masse) the emperor has no clothes.

Steve Poplar at ‘The Poplar Report’ has it figured out (time stamp 12:00, link here).

With that, let’s look at the bond market and see what it’s saying about itself.

Long Bonds, TLT, Weekly Close

Price action appears to be breaking down out of a wedge.

The potential?

Higher interest rates going into year-end (not advice, not a recommendation).

The result: fewer autos sold/financed, fewer homes sold/financed and possibly much less spending on Christmas.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … Slammed !!!

November 16, 2024 By in Dollar, Gold & Silver, Great Depression 2.0, SLV, UUP, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge, zsl Tags: , , 1 Comment

What’s Next?

We can see how the typical ‘investor’ would be angry; having believed the hype about silver’s imminent ‘hyperinflation’ launch.

Pontificating hype like, silver’s going to ‘catch up’ with gold, ‘go along for the ride’, ‘close the gap’, massive ‘physical demand’.

Well, this so–called ‘launch’ (so far), is not only not happening, but appears to be in a bearish divergence downside reversal … What???

Setting The Stage

From the recent high set on October 22-nd, to the close on Friday, Silver (SLV) is down -13.3%, a decent hit, but not quite a wipe-out, yet.

Putting that brief opportunity in perspective, during the same period 2X Inverse Fund ZSL, is up over 31.5%.

For a clue on what might be coming next, we’ll go to this anecdote, link here.

The so-called ‘environmentalists’ don’t even believe their own hype.

Not only that, if we’re already in an economic collapse, then silver, an industrial metal, is subject to the same forces.

Pulling Back The Curtain

If or when the new administration takes office (January 20th, is a long way away), we can expect a lot of truth (but not all of it) to come out.

That’s already starting, with the blow-up in biotech.

Random Thought: Wasn’t the dollar supposed to collapse by now? But, I digress.

Lets’ get back to silver (SLV), and what the price action is telling us.

Silver SLV, Weekly

With the situation below, what’s the most likely event for the coming week?

We’ve had four down-weeks in a row. Price action’s at the wedge boundary (blue line) and minor support (black dashed line).

Last week was a narrow range bar with less overall volume than the week prior.

Therefore, the most likely event, is an attempt to retrace the prior four weeks of down action (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Trading The ‘Crash Channel’

November 9, 2024 By in 1907, 2000 - 2001, Artificial Intelligence, Dr. Elder, Elliott Wave, Great Depression 2.0, Livermore, QQQ, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX Tags: , , , ,

‘The Big Money’s in, The Big Move’ … Dr. Elder

The whole quote from Elder (paraphrasing):

‘The big money is in the big move but only the top-tier trader or speculator has the ability and skill to trade it…’

This ‘big money’ idea is exactly what Jesse Livermore figured out as part of his plan after years of making ‘piking bets’ on minor price fluctuations.

Ultimately, his method was to anticipate events about to happen in a ‘big way’.

He netted over $1 million, during the Panic of 1907, probably his best example of trading the big move.

Note: $1-mil, in 1907, is about $32-mil, today.

Here’s a chart of the ‘Panic‘.

Look how similar it is, to the chart of the QQQ bubble and the current position of the SOXX; except the (potential) wipe-out, of course. 🙂

Back at the 2000, bubble top in the Qs, we have the following.

Nasdaq QQQ, Weekly

Several trading channels can be identified; the most aggressive, is the one shown.

The channel above, lasted nearly three-months, from week-ending 1/26/01, to week-ending 4/6/01.

Note that price action rose for about three weeks in a ‘January Effect’ at the beginning of ’01, before rolling over in a big way.

There’s a lot going on in this chart. For example, the January effect rise took the Qs back to a Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace of the entire down move.

Strategy

The coming days and weeks are going to let us know if the SOXX, is modeling the mania bubbles of the past (not advice, not a recommendation).

A possible important distinction: In the prior update, the SOXX, had two massive down-thrusts, not just one.

One could even argue there were three (week ending 7/19/24).

Does that mean we’re at an order of magnitude larger on what comes next?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Rate-ing Game

November 2, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, TLT, ZeroHedge Tags: , ,

Rates Spike Big Time … Who Could Have Guessed?

Let’s use the ‘Way Back’ machine with Mr. Peabody and return to this post.

Back in mid-August, that analysis presented rates heading higher (not lower), as more probable.

One month after that, this update showed a ‘terminating wedge’ in the bond market, TLT.

Now, two and a half months after the first post, the rate spike’s hitting the news.

Once again, you have to ‘subscribe‘ to find out what’s already happened. Hmmm

Contrary Indicator

The fact rates are just now in the mainstream, could (as we’ll see below) indicate a potential hesitation of downside or an upside retrace.

Long Bonds TLT, Daily Close

We’ll start first with the original ‘wedge’ post.

Now, for the updated version.

Obviously, there’s a lot going on in the chart.

Price action blew-through the measured move and has (potentially) culminated in a downside wash-out.

Or, behind Door Number 2, it could be a signal, rates are about to press-on higher like a juggernaut (not advice, not a recommendation)

The Fed Rides Again

Remember our last post on the Fed (possibly reversing the reversal), said to get your popcorn ready.

Looks like the show’s about to start.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana’s (final) Squeeze

October 31, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX, TSM Tags: , , ,

Who’s Left, To Cover?

Short interest on Carvana, has been holding at a stubborn 12% – 13%, for what seems like months.

As of this post, BigCharts reports current short-interest at 11.67%.

Maybe that’s about to change with today’s gap-higher action (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana just released earnings and like the analysis of Taiwan Semi (link, here), this may be the end of the squeeze (or, the beginning of the end).

Carvana CVNA, Weekly

Pre-market action’s right at the 61.8%, retrace level.

Note the magenta arrow on Force Index, middle panel.

Subsequent upward thrusts have less and less energy.

Other Markets: SOXX

We’re about twenty-minutes before the open and Semiconductors, SOXX, looks like it will confirm the downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

There may also be a downtrend line in play.

More on that later.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Bulls … Exhausted

October 26, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, David Weis, LABD, LABD-24-18, LABD-24-19, LABD-24-20, SPBIO, XBI Tags: , ,

Downside Leader?

Biotech XBI, spent the last three months hitting resistance, going nowhere.

That doesn’t mean there weren’t trading opportunities; there were but the big (expected) break to the downside never came … that is, until now, maybe. 🙂

Looking at the weekly chart, it’s completely different from the current, topping, on-going A.I. mania.

Biotech reached its all-time high, years ago.

Biotech XBI, Weekly Close

The sector’s been retracing to Fibonacci 38.2%, since late February, this year.

Moving in closer to the daily, the last three (short) trades in the sector are noted (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

For detail on how and why trades were selected, click on the side bar for that trade number.

Note: We have a repeating pattern (between green lines) of ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.

The Week Ahead

Anything can happen.

With that said, ‘normal’ market behavior would be a ‘blip’ upward to test resistance, the black line.

However, there’s no requirement to do so.

If price action gets above Friday’s high, obviously it’s time to exit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Keeps on Slippin’

October 23, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-18, SOXX, TSM, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Downward Pressure

Insiders have sold out; the train has left the station.

Big caps, NVDA, and TSM, appear to have reached (and reversed from) all-time highs, simultaneously but separately.

NVDA, with an Up-Thrust, TSM, with an exhaustion spike (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, anything can happen, there could be a reversal.

For now however, downward pressure appears to be increasing.

Taiwan Semi opened below yesterday’s low and Nvidia posted a new daily low within seconds after its open.

Let’s look at Nvidia and see how Fibonacci time sequences are affecting price action.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

At this juncture, we’re in Wyckoff Up-Thrust condition (not advice, not a recommendation).

Price action posted above resistance (blue line) and retreated.

Note the ‘Week 89’, first discussed here, and here.

Then, we have yesterday’s action at both Fibonacci count 89 (minus two days) and 55 (plus one day).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Measured Moves

October 19, 2024 By in Charles Hugh Smith, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Gold Production, Speck-Effect, Statista, The Speck Tags: , , ,

Is This … ‘Inflation?‘

Is gold rising because of ‘inflation’ or just another market going through pattern-influenced moves?

Maybe there’s something else, something no-one talks about.

As far as known, the following insight (first discussed here) is exclusive:

Since 2020, world-wide gold output is declining; output for 2023, down over 9%, since 2019, link here.

Could this be a clue? Full article is here.

Well, enough of the truth.

Let’s get back to our fantasy world; the highly simplistic excuse that gold’s responding to ‘massive inflation’ and ‘money printing’.

Gold GLD, Monthly

One wedge, with its target already reached.

There’s another potential wedge (not advice, not a recommendation).

Since futures are trading about $200/oz. higher than GLD (at 1/10 oz. pricing), the second measured move if reached, corresponds to about $3,300/oz. (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver’s ‘Measured Move’

October 13, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, SLV Tags: , , , ,

Bullish & Bearish

For the past six months, the overall strategic assessment of silver has been consistent; sideways to bearish.

Stategic, because there are always opportunities for bulls and bears if your timeframe is short enough.

Six months ago in May, the high for silver SLV, was 29.56. So far this month, the high is 30.01, a +1.52% difference.

Not exactly ‘sideways’ but as we’ll see below, it’s potentially bearish (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver SLV, Weekly

The measured move, discussed back in May, link here.

Back then, at the link above was this:

“The coming week could see SLV, inch its way higher to the measured move or continue the testing (possibly, reversal) action it started last week.“

Well, it took SLV, nineteen-weeks to ‘inch its way higher’ to just tap the measured move target.

All of which brings us to the next chart.

If the wedge is in-effect and SLV breaks down, depending on location, SLV, target could be in the vicinity of 20 – 22 area (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279