Tag Archives: Trading

Sentiment … Volume … Price

May 24, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-03, CVNA-25-04, Michael Bordenaro, Positions Tags: , , , 1 Comment

Typical Phases of Reversal

Of course, it’s not obvious until it is, and then, it’s too late.

For Carvana, we definitely have the sentiment with the last earnings release.

A stellar quarter, but the future, not so much.

In just over two-weeks since then, bond prices are lower, rates higher and threatening to completely unravel, link here.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

Let’s put our recent (short) positioning activity into perspective.

That tiny little ‘blip’, at the far right, is where we’ve been attempting to position short (not advice, not a recommendation).

The area is expanded, below.

Prices are either congesting for a sustained launch higher or preparing to reverse.

That puts us at, The Danger Point®

Note that volume is contracting with Friday’s close, below the prior tops.

We have ‘sentiment’, now ‘volume’, then (maybe) price.

Positioning

Friday’s close could have been that ‘price’ part of the equation. We’ll see in the coming week.

The last update said, if there was buoyancy, CVNA-25-03, may be exited; that’s what happened.

Then, right at the close, another short: CVNA-25-04, with a stop near the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX Rolls Over

November 26, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX Tags: , , ,

The Big One?

It’s been a long time coming.

The next down-leg in the SOXX, and A.I., bubble, may be at hand (not advice, not a recommendation).

Many factors coming together; Fibonacci projections, retrace levels and time sequences; price action posting and defining trend lines and trading channels.

With that, let’s take a look at what the SOXX, is saying about itself.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

We’re half-way though today’s session, anything can happen. Even so, the test and reversal are clear.

What also may be in the making, is the verification of the trading channel shown.

The channel has its own Fibonacci count(s).

One part, Fibonacci 5-days wide, another, Fibonacci 8 days, for a total of Fibonacci 13-days.

Positioning

For those following this site on a daily basis, you already know, this sector’s been sold (short) via leveraged inverse fund SOXS (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade number is, SOXS-24-20, in the sidebar, above.

The short was initiated with this update, shown above in the chart. It was maintained throughout the gyrations of the ‘election’ and aftermath.

Now, we wait.

If nothing else, and the trade falls apart, today’s session high in the SOXX, is an excellent place for a stop (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The SOXX ‘Pop’

November 25, 2024 By in 2000 - 2001, Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: , , ,

Testing The Underside

After the ‘test’, is that when the plug is pulled?

It’s the market’s job to frustrate (nearly) every single participant, bull or bear, into submission, into giving up and exiting just before the real move gets underway.

How many times have you heard (or experienced) the following:

“The market stopped me out, then took off for a huge gain … without me”.

Experience (i.e. many losses) is the ability to know when the trade (premise) is broken or just going through a test. 🙂

Looking at the SOXX, it’s a compelling (test) picture (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly

Prior updates (here and here) have shown the similarities of the A.I. bubble to the dot-com bubble of the 2000s.

One of the events watched for, was the ‘trend break’.

As of today, the market is currently testing that break.

The fact we have a new weekly (retrace) high as well, presents a Fibonacci time correlation.

This week is Fibonacci 21-weeks from the all-time-high in the SOXX.

A downside reversal from this point may indeed tell us, ‘The plug has been pulled’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … Retrace Higher, For Now

November 24, 2024 By in Federal Reserve, Gold & Silver, SLV Tags: , ,

… ‘The Most Likely Event’

One week ago, the update on silver (SLV), ended with this (emphasis added):

“Therefore, the most likely event, is an attempt to retrace the prior four weeks of down action (not advice, not a recommendation).”

As the chart shows, that’s exactly what happened.

One important item (so far) is the weakness.

Silver Daily with Fibonacci Retrace

The retrace higher, closed near the Fibonacci 23.6%, level.

As can be seen, the market is following a Fibonacci time sequence for its pivot locations.

The next count is ‘Day 8’, which just so happens to be this coming Tuesday’s release of Fed minutes and one day before the PCE, is released.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Trading The ‘Crash Channel’

November 9, 2024 By in 1907, 2000 - 2001, Artificial Intelligence, Dr. Elder, Elliott Wave, Great Depression 2.0, Livermore, QQQ, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX Tags: , , , ,

‘The Big Money’s in, The Big Move’ … Dr. Elder

The whole quote from Elder (paraphrasing):

‘The big money is in the big move but only the top-tier trader or speculator has the ability and skill to trade it…’

This ‘big money’ idea is exactly what Jesse Livermore figured out as part of his plan after years of making ‘piking bets’ on minor price fluctuations.

Ultimately, his method was to anticipate events about to happen in a ‘big way’.

He netted over $1 million, during the Panic of 1907, probably his best example of trading the big move.

Note: $1-mil, in 1907, is about $32-mil, today.

Here’s a chart of the ‘Panic‘.

Look how similar it is, to the chart of the QQQ bubble and the current position of the SOXX; except the (potential) wipe-out, of course. 🙂

Back at the 2000, bubble top in the Qs, we have the following.

Nasdaq QQQ, Weekly

Several trading channels can be identified; the most aggressive, is the one shown.

The channel above, lasted nearly three-months, from week-ending 1/26/01, to week-ending 4/6/01.

Note that price action rose for about three weeks in a ‘January Effect’ at the beginning of ’01, before rolling over in a big way.

There’s a lot going on in this chart. For example, the January effect rise took the Qs back to a Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace of the entire down move.

Strategy

The coming days and weeks are going to let us know if the SOXX, is modeling the mania bubbles of the past (not advice, not a recommendation).

A possible important distinction: In the prior update, the SOXX, had two massive down-thrusts, not just one.

One could even argue there were three (week ending 7/19/24).

Does that mean we’re at an order of magnitude larger on what comes next?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The ASML ‘Crash’

October 16, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, ASML, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-18, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: ,

It Really Is, A Crash

ASML down -21.8%, in just two days; the biggest downdraft in a quarter century.

A ‘premature’ earnings release was given as the excuse; like waiting one day longer was going to make the news better.

The important part, Wyckoff analysis techniques picked up on the SOXX index and highlighted ‘something’s up’.

Wyckoff Clues Ahead-of-Time

There was an aberration in volume (here), initially thought to be exhaustion.

Turns out, that concentrated volume was (potentially) preparation for the attempted breakout, link here.

Either way, the anomaly was identified and noted; resulting action was to position short; trade SOXS-24-18 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Market Stunned

Yesterday’s downdraft in the SOXX, was a -5%, loss.

Today, so far, shows a tight trading range in an attempt to test higher (as described here).

At this point, significantly higher, is not happening (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver’s Bearish Divergence (again)

October 5, 2024 By in Dollar, Dr. Elder, Gold & Silver, Livermore, serpentza, SLV, UUP Tags: , , , ,

Has Our Hyperinflation ‘Nutcase’ Escaped?

Well, ladies and gentlemen, here we are.

We’re about to find out if silver (SLV), is headed for a breakout, sideways congestion and/or, outright reversal.

In a world that seems to be allergic to the truth (as serpentza, put it), we’re going to do just that; look at the truth, the price action itself.

The last update, link here, said to watch for an SLV, breakout that could fail, confirming a bearish divergence.

From the intro line, here we are.

We have the breakout.

All that’s missing is continuation higher or reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, let’s go to the truth of the matter, the SLV chart.

Silver SLV, ETF, Daily

Years ago, Dr. Elder stated, when MACD histogram and MACD lines are parallel (bearish divergence), it’s a rare occurrence.

The coming week might be the deciding factor.

Before we leave this post, let’s throw in a bonus and consider the dollar ‘collapse’ narrative.

Dollar ‘Collapse’, Where?

Below is an updated chart of the dollar index.

Note the arrow to this link, posted nearly four years ago!

Dollar Index UUP, Weekly

It’s important to note, at the time the ‘Reversal Ready’ post was created, there was absolutely no-one (that was known) indicating the dollar index was headed significantly higher.

This is what’s meant by ‘Strategy’ in the About section.

Livermore was focused on what’s going (or likely) to happen in a big way.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Eyes on Bonds … Rates Higher

September 28, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Michael Bordenaro, TLT Tags: , , , , , , ,

Pulling Back The Curtain

Rates not going lower but higher as reported here, now being confirmed by ‘boots-on-the-ground’, link here.

With rates moving higher now, the next Fed meeting after the ‘election’, seems a long time away.

Exact Opposite

As Michael Bordenaro reported (link) above, ‘everybody’ expected rates to fall because, well, you know … The Fed 🙂

As he states, the exact opposite is what’s happening.

Well, ladies and gentlemen, the curtain’s being pulled back on a lot of things. The Fed’s in ‘control’ is just one of them.

So, let’s take a look at bonds, then and now.

Long Bonds TLT, Daily Close

That was then.

Fast-forward, to now.

Price patterns can dissipate or stay ‘in-effect’.

The measured move target shows where bonds are likely to go, if the pattern stays in effect (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, bonds lower, means rates higher.

Get your popcorn ready and let’s watch how the media’s going to spin this one.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech, Fibonacci, & The Tape

September 24, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-18, Livermore, Loeb, SOXS, SOXS-24-16, SOXX, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI Tags: , , , ,

Reversal of Significance

Wyckoff (tape reading) analysis identified the potential reversal in XBI.

In the past two days of trading, biotech XBI, is decisively lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, there’s more to this story.

As we’ll see below, Fibonacci is at work as well.

Biotech XBI, Daily Close

From closing high on 2/27/24, to closing high on 9/19/24, was a Fibonacci 144 days (minus one).

Ladies and Gentlemen, it doesn’t get much better 🙂

The black lines show resistance penetration, up-thrust and reversal.

Livermore, Wyckoff & Loeb

The trading methods of the three market masters above, can be summarized as:

Strategy, Tactics and Focus.

Livermore’s method of ‘what’s going to happen in a (potential) big way’, pointed to biotech.

Wyckoff’s analysis was used to identify (to the day), the potential for a significant reversal.

Loeb, who is less known, was the former Vice Chairman of E.F. Hutton, disparaged ‘diversification’ as the ‘averaging of errors’; meaning, if you don’t know what you’re doing (in the markets), you ‘diversify.’

We can see all three at work in the selection to go short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

Fixing Errors

For those watching, you got to see up close and personal a trading error on shorting the SOXX; specifically, an -11.6%, hit, link here.

As of this post, four trading days later, that loss has been fully recovered and then some.

This is how should be done.

Clear the mind, look for (don’t force) another opportunity, get to back to business.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279