Monthly Archives: December 2021

Gold Natives … Getting Restless

December 19, 2021 By in Dr. Elder, DUST, DUST-21-01, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Latest Reversal … Exposes The ‘Experts’

‘When the tide goes out, that’s when you find out who’s been swimming naked.’

No fan, and no endorsement of Buffett but the quote is applicable.

If yesterday’s Newmont analysis holds, meaning, it’s the last stand before another leg-lower, gold bulls might start acting irrationally.

Is it even possible to be more irrational?

Remember their manic prediction of $3,000/oz, gold in months, not years?

Barring a major reversal, the tide’s going out.

From the comments section of this ZeroHedge article, some in the herd are figuring it out as well.

As one of them says … ‘another year to wait before the Great Pumpkin’ (i.e., gold moving higher).

As this post is created, comments continue to pour-in.

Gold bulls are frustrated, confused, pontificating, crypto loving/hating, central bank blaming, it’s all there.

Thus far, there’s not one comment on what price action is actually doing.

Public Service Announcement

This whole business with the financial media and its attendant hucksters (recent examples, here and here) is actually a fantastic public service.

For anyone who’s still able to think (an act of rebellion in itself), it’s clear, or should be, if you’re on TV, or the mainstream media, you’re a shill until proven otherwise.

The good part?

All of this media, podcast, carpetbagging and corruption, plays right into the hand of Wyckoff analysis.

Wyckoff focused on what is … not what should be.

Even back in the early 1930s, he was adamant about ignoring the financial press. ‘You’ll never be successful’, he said if you listen to the hype.

Mixed Messages

On cue to support that statement, is Dan, from i-Allegedly; he reports ‘we’re getting mixed messages‘ in the economy.

Proving the point.

The (Trade) Plan Forward

With the caveat, anything can happen; gold could rally in a couple hours when the futures open, the short via DUST (not advice, not a recommendation), is as follows:

  1. The Set-Up: Complete
  2. The ‘test’ or ‘gut-check’: Complete
  3. The first ‘correction’: On-going
  4. Continuation or Failure
    1. Trend identification
    2. Potential channel(s)
  5. Exit process
    1. Scale out
    2. Full exit
  6. Post trade evaluation

What’s In A Name ?

Even if the trade fails at the next session, it would still provide valuable information.

With that in mind, no matter what happens it’s likely to be referenced in the future; so, it needs a name (or number).

Taking a cue from prior engineering work (creating numbering schemes), the current trade will be identified now, and in future posts, as: DUST-21-01.

Seems straightforward.

The ‘First’ Correction

No. 3, above is titled ‘The first correction’.

This labeling is borrowed from a trade discussed by William Doane, in Dr. Elder’s book: Entries & Exits.

Price action permitting, we’ll discuss how this first correction may be a brief one as opposed to a drawn-out choppy affair.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont Holds The Key

December 18, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Livermore, NEM, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 3 Comments

‘Last Man Standing’

Founded by William Boyce Thompson in 1916, Newmont (NEM) was around over a century ago during Livermore and Wyckoff’s day.

Thompson is center in the photo with President, Warren G. Harding at left.

Wyckoff and Thompson were interconnected.

In Wyckoff’s autobiography, he writes about working for Thompson’s firm (Thompson, Towle & Co.) in 1910.

During that time, he describes no fewer than two stock ‘manipulation’ schemes; one by renowned James R. Keene and the other by Thompson himself during a deal-gone-bad with the Guggenheims.

Also in 1910, Wyckoff published his seminal work: Studies In Tape Reading. If there’s any one book to read concerning how markets work, ‘Studies ..’ is that book.

Wyckoff had first-hand exposure into market operations by the wealthy and super wealthy. More importantly, he saw how those transactions showed themselves on the tape.

Last check, a first edition ‘Studies’ went for around $3,500. A quick search as of this post, turns up nothing currently available.

For those who complain ‘it’s rigged’, to that we can say, ‘it’s always been rigged’.

Determine what those ‘rigging’, are trying to accomplish and you may have a trade.

Now, to the market at hand: Newmont Mining.

It’s the key; the largest cap equity in the Senior Mining Index (GDX).

Newmont, NEM

The daily chart:

For those who have been with this site for a while, you may instantly see the set-up: Spring to Up-Thrust.

The marked-up chart makes it clear.

Moving in a little closer for additional clues:

We can see from the volume itself, there were a huge number of transactions this past Friday.

NEM penetrated long established resistance.

In so doing, it set off a massive number of orders: Buy orders, sell orders, sell-short.

Senior Mining Index: GDX

The other part of the story and the one that weights it to the bears:

While NEM, is at multi-month highs, senior miners GDX, is nowhere near its highs.

Daily chart, GDX:

What does that mean?

It means the market is ‘thinning-out’

The professionals and maybe some investors alike, are abandoning the non-performing lesser cap equities; pouring funds into the last man standing NEM, in hopes that it will keep moving higher.

It’s desperation and signals market weakness.

As always, anything can happen and bulls may somehow take control.

However, from the charts themselves, hyper-stretched major indices coupled with insiders bailing out the most in history, uneducated ‘retail’ willingly stepping up to hold the bag, it does not look good for any bulls … gold or otherwise.

Summary:

We could find ourselves in a situation similar to the oil market in mid-2014 where it spontaneously deflated for eighteen months … nary a blip higher all the way down.

With that, we’re maintaining short via DUST (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Before The Open

December 17, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions 1 Comment

Is Today The Day ?

Is today the day we find out who’s really in control?

The day where it’s either inflation or deflation?

It’s about 30-minutes before the open.

Pre-market action has gold (GLD), right at the Fibonacci 50% retrace level shown in the 4-Hour chart.

Gold (GLD) 4-Hour

Looking at the chart we see the following:

The up-thrust from November, was an island gap reversal (bearish).

During the Fed announcement (Wednesday, the 15th), price action penetrated weekly lows and set up a spring condition (bullish).

We’re at Fibonacci Day 3, of the spring and current trading at 50% retrace in the pre-market (neutral).

Pre-market trading is at an axis line which also indicated prior resistance on November 30th (bearish).

If price action opens or trades at the 50% level, it would also up-thrust the November 30th print high; therefore, creating a potential reversal condition (bearish).

Summary:

There’s a lot going on in the gold market.

The ‘man on the street’ YouTubers are screaming inflation and the need to “exit the system”.

That’s a great idea (exit). Just exactly how does that work anyway? A topic for another time.

Meanwhile, here we are.

We’re doing what price action’s telling us to do. That is, stay short until proven wrong (not advice, not a recommendation).

That proof, for bulls or bears could come today.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Here We Go Again …

December 16, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions

Repeating Pattern(s)

“Spring to Up-Thrust”

That’s where we are now.

Yesterday’s update was out before gold (GLD) penetrated weekly lows.

Those who don’t understand the markets, will say it’s the Fed.

Those who do understand the markets (the trading pros) won’t say but keep it to themselves.

They’ll let the gold bulls think their day has come. We have hyperinflation at last!

As always, it could be true.

The more probable, price action based outcome; we’re in yet another push past resistance to trap the bulls.

Gold (GLD)

As of this post (about an hour into the session) the daily chart is in up-thrust position and 38%, retrace level simultaneously.

Zoom-in

So, it’s yet another danger point. If bulls are to take control, this is the spot.

If they fail, they are trapped yet again; if so, the next down-leg may be brutal indeed.

Positioning:

Maintaining short via DUST (not advice, not a recommendation) with ‘cover-shorts-finger’ close the trigger.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Bulls … Hit In The Head

December 15, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Gold Miners, UUP, Van Metre, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Not Waiting Around For The Fed

It’s been an abusive relationship for the gold bulls.

Following the corporate media (always a mistake) and YouTuber’s alike (sometimes a mistake), only to find out it’s all been a lie.

Gold (GLD), looks like it’s solidifying its breakaway gap (chart below) and simultaneously confirming a potential trading channel.

In what may be related news, ZeroHedge reports some of the internet is down … again.

Note the websites having problems involve food, payroll services and of course, entertainment.

Separately, the dollar (UUP) just made a new weekly high as its rally continues. In Steven Van Metre’s Sunday Night update (time stamp: 18:01), if the dollar breaks higher above UUP 26 or 27, then “… all the wheels come off ….”

Which brings us to the gold market.

Gold (GLD), Weekly Chart

The chart reviews the recent up-thrust (reversal) that was accompanied by hysterical … bordering on unhinged insane press coverage of an imminent break higher.

Obviously, that didn’t happen.

Zoom version

In addition to the reversal and breakaway gap, there could be a trading channel as well.

That’s a good thing for the bears as it gives a more clear exit area … negation (or break) of that channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Zoom version

Of course, anything can happen. The Fed announcement is about two hours away.

However, it looks like gold and miners alike, are not waiting around … potentially beginning their decline in earnest.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Producer Prices … ‘Explode’

December 14, 2021 By in DUST, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions

Yet, Gold Heads Lower ?

It just doesn’t add up.

U.S. producer prices explode to record high and gold heads lower.

Is anyone paying any attention?

Apparently, not.

Today’s trip to the office supply store, had those employees and some customers alike, still putting toilet paper on their face in an attempt to ward off goblins … unseen.

Meanwhile, down in Kiwi-Land, looks like the Prime Minister has declared the coast is clear for orgies up to 25-people.

Talk about, “In the days of Noah …” but, I digress.

Gold (GLD), posted lower and the miners GDX, did as well.

The nuance with the miners, we may have just seen a pivot lower … increasing the rate of descent.

Senior Miners, GDX

We’ll use the same chart scaling from yesterday’s update.

Looking closely, today’s bar pulled away from the right-side trend-line just a bit.

Next, the same chart but on a 4-Hour time-frame

Note how a new (increased angle) trendline can be drawn.

The next chart zooms-in

There have been four, four-hour hits on the new more aggressive downtrend line.

That new line (thus far) is declining at about -94%, on an annualized basis.

Summary

If this is a more aggressive pivot lower, it’s very early in the trend. The next session can easily negate the trend or just as easily, provide confirmation.

Maintaining short via DUST (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Expectations’ Are Not ‘Reality’

December 13, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions 1 Comment

Man On The Street … Inflation To Skyrocket

Even after gold and the miners have reversed lower, the press still implores gold to head higher.

Like something out of Moby Dick … even after Ahab is dead, he still beckons.

The above link gives us another report on ‘inflation expectations’ at a new record high.

Near the bottom, the text says that survey respondents expect ‘gold to continue acceleration higher’.

The problem: Gold’s not accelerating and currently, is not going anywhere.

The statement (or belief) is completely false.

Senior Miners, GDX

The short positioning continues (not advice, not a recommendation)

The daily chart of GDX, shows price action hugging the right-side trend-line. Each tap and reversal provides more data on potential direction lower.

With the understanding an exit could be required at any moment, the hits on the right side are being used to increase short positioning (not advice, not a recommendation).

The zoom chart above, shows every short entry, except one, at a lower price (higher for DUST).

Summary:

Today’s ‘expectations’ report was released at 11:12, a.m.

If the day’s narrow-range bar is the best the gold miners can do with such high ‘inflation’, there must be something else more powerful at work (to the downside).

Maintaining short until the market itself says to get out (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Random Notes & Usual Suspects

December 12, 2021 By in Random Notes, Stew Peters, The Speck, Usual Suspects, Vernon Coleman

Special, ‘Idiots in Action‘, Update

No. 1

Normalizing The Non-Normal

Dr. Vernon Coleman has been at that front of ‘The Speck’ narrative from the start.

HIs latest video gives his estimate on life expectancy of those who have been ‘protected’.

No. 2

Pilot Casualty List

The Stew Peters show has updated several times about ‘incidents‘ in flight but now we have the actual receipts.

Industry trade magazine ‘Air Line Pilot’, gives names and dates of those no longer around.

Linked here. The first 7:50, minutes covers the pilot casualties.

No. 3

‘Links’ Are Not Endorsements

From No. 2 above, at time stamp 10:27, the presenter gets into material that those ‘awake’, know all too well.

We should also know, the same tactic (trust the plan) was used during the Russian revolution of 1917. It was used to placate the patriots so they would take no action.

That it’s even being discussed in the above link, is highly disappointing. The airline magazine list is a fact …. the rest? Not so much.

No. 4

Schools To Get Ready

Get ready for kids to start dropping … thanks to idiot parents.

No. 5

Surrounded By A Sea Of Stupidity.

As said before, no one is going to help this crowd (in No. 4) by becoming part of them. Some (like my own extended family) are adamant about remaining stupid.

What can you do?

Well, from this site’s perspective (market analysis), there are a lot of asset, and estate sales coming up.

Carry cash because by that time, credit cards won’t work.

No. 6

Vitamin C … Grow Your Own

Ever wonder why there’s such a war on Dandelion?

Why not a war on milkweed or crab-grass?

No, it’s a war on Dandelion.

Here’s a nearly two-hour presentation on Vitamin C (disclaimer, I have not watched the entire report).

No. 7

Boosters, To The Moon !!!

As this link shows, it will never end … that is, until the person ‘protected’ ends.

“… as long as people believe …”, time stamp 1:27

No. 8

Mr. E Archives

Mr. E, was one of the casualties of the YouTube purge a few years back.

Here’s one of his clips that’s relevant to today.

No. 9

Smart = Stupid

No, it’s not from the Ministry Of Truth.

It’s the ‘smart device‘, showing how vulnerable the typical non-thinker (new word for idiot), is, and is going to be, when internet interruptions (cyber-attack) really get started.

‘Locked out of Disney’ … well, Boo Hoo … Плак-Плак (translation of Plack Plack)

No. 10

Land-Line … Lifeline

Back in the day before there was streaming internet, I used to call up TeleBroker and code in the ticker symbol with the phone buttons.

I would then listen to the high, low, current price, and volume. This was done a few times a day.

The purpose was, to get a ‘feel’ of the market. From listening to the action, I could feel it (time stamp 3:27).

At the time, the stock being monitored was Theragenics (back then, as THRX).

I could tell from the phone action, there was distribution going on around the 5.00 – area. This went on for several days. As price would near the 5.00 level, volume would come in and push it lower.

Thearagenics, indeed peaked around 5.00, and then went into a multi-year rachet lower to an ultimate low in December of ’93 or ’94, if memory serves.

After that low, it went up 1,000% or more … a ten-bagger.

How many are prepared to hit the phone and use it for trading action. How many still have land-lines?

As you might have guessed, since this author’s still using ‘rabbit ears’, we still have a hard-wire, land-line as well.

No. 11

Continual Growth & Improvement

If someone started diligently researching and educating themselves non-stop in the markets since 1987 (when I opened my first brokerage account), how much growth has there been since that time?

Even as the ‘likes’ come in on material written just a few months ago, I go back and re-read, that research.

Sometimes the thought is ‘that was a good post’.

Most of the time, not.

I think to myself, ‘you can do better …. much better.’

So, it is with life.

We can be like the servant that buries his talent or we can be like the ones who go out and risk.

Even from a Biblical perspective, it just doesn’t end well for those who refuse to think and work.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Has No P/E

December 11, 2021 By in CVNA, Food Supply, I Allegedly, ice-age-farmer, KMX 11 Comments

No P/E

No Grade-Point

Another Animal House ?

Delta

‘All courses, … incomplete‘

If your biggest claim to fame is that you ‘invented’ a vending machine … you’ve got real problems.

No haggle pricing, thin margins and high volume, have already been pioneered by CarMax.

So, what’s left … you get to select your car with a token and vending machine?

Based on available data, in the past three years, CVNA had one profitable quarter. Those results were released in August, this year.

About a week after that, CVNA breaks its uptrend, goes sideways and now, is heading lower.

CVNA Trend Break

The daily chart has the arrow showing the only profitable quarter in three years.

On the other side of business, we have CarMax … where every quarter for the past ten-years has been profitable.

Double The Bubble

During the melt-down in 2007 – 2008, new cars on retail lots had window stickers that said ‘$10,000 Off List Price’.

We’re probably double the bubble of then. With that in mind, even CarMax looks poised to have a hard time.

As the economy (if you can call it that) falls off the cliff, one of these two (KMX, CVNA), is not likely to survive.

So, we can expect even deeper discounts.

However, this time, it’s likely to be a choice between buying food or buying the SUV at 70% – 80%, off retail.

On the positive side, that SUV can be put to work hauling fertilizer (if it can be found) for raised bed gardens. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Inflation … Hot or Not ?

December 10, 2021 By in Dollar, DUST, GDX, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Inflation, Livermore, Wyckoff

Monetary Does Not Equal Asset

If there ever was a CPI report to completely break the ‘inflation’ narrative, this was it.

Several articles, here, here, and here, all saying essentially the same thing … skyrocketing ‘inflation’.

If that really was true, why is the 5,000-year-old hedge against inflation (gold) not responding … and even worse, heading lower?

That’s because, it’s all rigged, man !! (cue, Tommy Chong).

Well, it has always been rigged.

Both Wyckoff and Livermore talked about that ‘rigging’ way back in 1921, when Wyckoff interviewed Livermore about his trading methods. Later, in 1922, a series of articles on Livermore was published in Wyckoff’s ‘Magazine of Wall Street’ (a forerunner to Barron’s).

The point is, we’re not interested in who is doing the rigging. That’s what the press tries to find out (a waste of time). The real question is, what are those ‘rigging’ trying to accomplish?

Answer that, and you may have a potential trade set-up.

We’ve got supply chain, controlled-demolition with corresponding asset price inflation; the kicker is, gold and the dollar, say we’re in some kind of monetary deflation.

Senior Miners, GDX Confirming Trend

Price action in the gold market and the miners confirm that (deflation) assessment … for now.

Zoom-in on trend line contacts.

Summary

Based on the articles linked above, if there ever was a data-set release that would launch gold (and the miners) higher, today would be the day … right?

Both Wyckoff and Livermore did not concern themselves with what ‘should’ be happening. They were focused on what ‘is’ happening.

Gold and the miners are (and have been) moving lower.

As yesterday’s post said, we’ll remain short (not advice, not a recommendation) until the market itself says to exit.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279