Monthly Archives: October 2024

Carvana’s (final) Squeeze

October 31, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX, TSM Tags: , , ,

Who’s Left, To Cover?

Short interest on Carvana, has been holding at a stubborn 12% – 13%, for what seems like months.

As of this post, BigCharts reports current short-interest at 11.67%.

Maybe that’s about to change with today’s gap-higher action (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana just released earnings and like the analysis of Taiwan Semi (link, here), this may be the end of the squeeze (or, the beginning of the end).

Carvana CVNA, Weekly

Pre-market action’s right at the 61.8%, retrace level.

Note the magenta arrow on Force Index, middle panel.

Subsequent upward thrusts have less and less energy.

Other Markets: SOXX

We’re about twenty-minutes before the open and Semiconductors, SOXX, looks like it will confirm the downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

There may also be a downtrend line in play.

More on that later.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Missed It By … ‘That Much’

October 30, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, DRV, DRV-24-06, IYR, Real Estate, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Thanks Go To, Maxwell Smart

As seen in the chart below, target for the SOXX, retrace was off by just a few (trading) hours.

‘Missed it by that much‘

The attack on SOXX, resistance, near 234 – 236, held; now, there was a huge gap-lower open.

Just to restate the purpose (usefulness) of Wyckoff analysis, fundamentals had nothing to do with identifying the potential up-thrust, then reversal.

With that, let’s move on.

Semiconductors SOXX, Hourly

The markings in the prior update have been re-created; showing how close price action came to target(s) in both location and time.

Back then, was this:

Now, we have this:

For those who have the David Weis training CD, the above scenario was described by him (seventeen years ago), almost to the exact ‘T’.

Positioning

Following the guidance of the late master, a short has already been opened; SOXS-24-20 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stats: SOXS entry @ 19.98, Stop @ 19.81 (or the session low), ‘risk’ is 0.17-pts (not advice, not a recommendation).

Other Trades

Early in the session, the short on IYR, trade DRV-24-06, was closed right at the stop; loss was 0.34-pts. (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

D.R. Horton Takes A Hit

October 29, 2024 By in DHI, DRV, DRV-24-06, IYR, Real Estate

Then, Commercial Battles At Trendline

As of this post, D. R. Horton is down about -10.5%, in early trading.

Evidently, the market did not like the earnings release.

It’s too late to position for downside in DHI; are there other opportunities?

Let’s look at the commercial sector, IYR

Real Estate, IYR, Daily

Reference the last post (and others) for an overall view.

We’re still in the possible ‘throw-over’ discussed in this update.

Positioning:

Noted in the sidebar, (trade) action has already been taken:

DRV-24-06: Entry at 24.22, Stop @ 23.88, ‘risk’ 0.34-pts (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Potential Set-Up

October 28, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, XBI 1 Comment

Once Again, Repeating Pattern

We’re about twenty-minutes before the open; the SOXX, looks like it will attempt to move above resistance.

If that happens, it’s one more check on the list for a (minor) set-up, a repeating pattern.

Small patterns can turn into larger ones or dissipate altogether; it’s interesting that biotech had a similar set-up this past Friday.

Semiconductor SOXX, Hourly

There are no ‘data’ releases scheduled for the day … not that it would matter.

The 800-thousand jobs revision should have told us all we need to know about ‘data’.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Moderna, Collapse & Class Action

October 27, 2024 By in Biotech, MRNA, Speck-Effect, The Speck

Just As Forecast

Moderna, MRNA, is down -88%, from its all-time highs.

Having worked the markets for nearly forty-years, it (typically) goes as follows …

When a stock declines 80% or more, in short order (12-36 months or so), those with absolutely no analysis skills or discipline, who bought-in because everyone else is doing it (making a supposed fortune), have now lost their shirts.

So, they do what they know best, blame somebody else. Let the lawsuits begin.

The whole thing is so much like High School.

Class action is nothing new. What is new this time around, or what could be new, is the ‘discovery’ process.

One has to wonder if (or when) the lawyers are going to come across this piece of ‘discovery’.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Bulls … Exhausted

October 26, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, David Weis, LABD, LABD-24-18, LABD-24-19, LABD-24-20, SPBIO, XBI Tags: , ,

Downside Leader?

Biotech XBI, spent the last three months hitting resistance, going nowhere.

That doesn’t mean there weren’t trading opportunities; there were but the big (expected) break to the downside never came … that is, until now, maybe. 🙂

Looking at the weekly chart, it’s completely different from the current, topping, on-going A.I. mania.

Biotech reached its all-time high, years ago.

Biotech XBI, Weekly Close

The sector’s been retracing to Fibonacci 38.2%, since late February, this year.

Moving in closer to the daily, the last three (short) trades in the sector are noted (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

For detail on how and why trades were selected, click on the side bar for that trade number.

Note: We have a repeating pattern (between green lines) of ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.

The Week Ahead

Anything can happen.

With that said, ‘normal’ market behavior would be a ‘blip’ upward to test resistance, the black line.

However, there’s no requirement to do so.

If price action gets above Friday’s high, obviously it’s time to exit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Market Directed Action

October 25, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-20, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-18, SOXX, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI

Follow The Tape

‘The “Tape” is the (market) master … and the master is a tyrant’

Wyckoff, circa 1910

With that in mind, there were some obvious changes in positioning early this session (not advice, not a recommendation).

Action(s):

Short trade in semiconductors, SOXS-24-18, was exited with about 3.1 % profit (not great, but ok).

Biotech XBI, got itself into an up-thrust (reversal) condition.

After leaving this sector alone for several weeks, we’re back in on the short side; LABD-24-20 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont … Whacked!

October 24, 2024 By in Catherine Austin Fitts, GDX, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Greg Hunter, IWM, NEM, NVDA, SOXX, SPY, TLT Tags: ,

Just The Start?

Has Newmont (NEM) started the reversal?

From a price action standpoint, we have an outside down weekly bar as well as (potential) monthly reversal.

Despite fever-pitch, ‘the world’s ending’ talk on gold and (supposed) silver breakouts, we’re reminded here (time stamp 3:10) to expect a downward spike in gold should there be (serious) international trouble (not advice, not a recommendation).

Newmont’s the largest cap in the GDX; let’s take a look at the sector.

Senior Miners, GDX, Weekly

GDX, in the same vein as IWM, NVDA, SOXX, SPY, and TLT (to name a few), posting its own terminating wedge.

Noted in the chart, GDX has entered back into the wedge formation after a ‘throw-over’; typically, a bearish sign (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Keeps on Slippin’

October 23, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-18, SOXX, TSM, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Downward Pressure

Insiders have sold out; the train has left the station.

Big caps, NVDA, and TSM, appear to have reached (and reversed from) all-time highs, simultaneously but separately.

NVDA, with an Up-Thrust, TSM, with an exhaustion spike (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, anything can happen, there could be a reversal.

For now however, downward pressure appears to be increasing.

Taiwan Semi opened below yesterday’s low and Nvidia posted a new daily low within seconds after its open.

Let’s look at Nvidia and see how Fibonacci time sequences are affecting price action.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

At this juncture, we’re in Wyckoff Up-Thrust condition (not advice, not a recommendation).

Price action posted above resistance (blue line) and retreated.

Note the ‘Week 89’, first discussed here, and here.

Then, we have yesterday’s action at both Fibonacci count 89 (minus two days) and 55 (plus one day).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia Higher … SOXX Lower

October 22, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-18, SOXX

Struggling At The Top

Nvidia is posting both positive and negative early in the session.

Already shown in prior posts, NVDA has been correlating well with Fibonacci time counts.

Taking a look at today’s struggle, we’re within the margin of error for Fibonacci Day 89, from the last all-time high, June 20th, this year.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

We’re at ‘Day 89’, minus two days.

Meanwhile, the rest of the sector (SOXX), continues to verify a nascent trendline lower, last update here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279