We’re using the leveraged inverse fund LABD, for our analysis (SPBIO down, LABD up).
Yesterday, closed with the 4-Hour chart above.
Annotating with Force Index numbers; each early session 4-Hour bar for the past two days, has been posted on decreasing downward thrust (last two magenta down-arrows).
In addition, the first four hours of the last session penetrated support and then retraced in the next four hours (last bar).
That sets up a spring condition as shown:
Taking Forever?
If this really is the crest of a major (overall market) reversal, we need to remind ourselves, it’s a massive juggernaut.
Said many times, we (my firm) are looking and working on the big move (not advice, not a recommendation).
By definition, it’s not a popular method.
Nothing seems to be happening … until it does. Then, it’s too late to position.
Pre-Market:
With about 17-minutes to go before the open, LABD is trading unchanged.
Obviously, the first four hours of trade will be important.
The market (LABD) could continue to grind lower … or we may be at the end of the counter-trend move; ready to reverse upward for LABD and down for SPBIO.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
How many of our YouTube ‘stackers’ are chess players?
A quick check of three popular (randomly picked) ‘stacking’ YouTubers, has one showing his intro with a pile of silver being stacked under the floor.
The other has ‘trinkets’ on her desk and supposed collectibles behind her.
The other has gone as far to say, the reason gold and silver are not going higher, is because of the public itself.
No overt reference to chess or any reference to chess play as a means of addressing market conditions.
They may indeed have knowledge but they’re not showing it as a matter of course.
If memory serves, one of Richard Denis’ interview questions to his potential ‘Turtle’ trader(s) was whether he (she) played chess.
Take look at the host site’s business logo (Three Ten Trading, LLC) and we’ll leave the discussion there.
It’s the author’s opinion, the ‘stacker’ sites are in the business of getting more business; not analyzing the markets with any high level of thought or seriousness.
However, they might have a purpose.
It’s possible, they fulfill the ‘bread and circuses’ void that’s the hallmark of an empire’s collapse; which brings us to the situation at hand.
This ‘collapse’ we’re in, is a process not an event.
As we continue on, it’s becoming clear that single-mindedly stockpiling inedible metal in hopes of surviving what’s here now, and what’s coming, is a major (if not potentially fatal) blunder.
The players on this global chess board are making their moves and then counter moves.
Case in point is Southwest Airlines cancellations and shutdown.
Southwest Airlines:
The company has made its move.
The employees countered with their move. Perhaps even more importantly, they did it with bravery.
It’s likely, a large part of them, if not all (who are not showing up for work) will eventually be terminated.
It’s also reasonable to think when they made their move, they understood full well, the potential (termination) outcome.
Economic Shutdown:
As ZeroHedge reports, what if more corporations experience similar (employee walk-out) events?
What if it’s a mass exodus?
Is anybody really ready to walk or ride their bike … even a horse, to work because there’s no fuel at the gas station?
If there’s no fuel, there are no deliveries of any kind.
A check of the Home Depot, in this area has it relatively stocked in the garden section.
However, from a personal standpoint, after checking the local Tractor Supply, there’s no Jobe’s (organic) fertilizer to be found at either site (save the one torn bag at Home Depot).
The shelves are empty … for that item at least.
Mass Psychological Shift
Remember our example of herd behavior? That it can turn on a dime; doing it instantly across thousands of miles?
Storable food is running low. What about seeds and fertilizer?
Genesis 41
What happens when the public realizes all-at-once, it’s the food supply that’s not ever (in quantity) coming back?
Suppose they collectively decide (rightly or wrongly), the ‘stackers’ are just another herd of followers.
That it was all yet another lie; a diversion away from the real problem.
Silver and gold are great if you already have it.
However, this site’s sticking to the Biblical, Genesis 41, world view.
That is, corn and grain (food) come first. Then, gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).
Remember, Joseph was paid first (for grain) with money (i.e., the silver stack).
When the money was exhausted, livestock was used.
When that ran out, the people sold themselves into slavery to obtain food.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The best way to hide something, is to put it out there for all to see:
In plain sight
However, for the oligarch’s target audience, the proletariat, they can’t actually ‘see’. It’s all by design.
They’re hypnotized, programmed, demoralized; just doing and not thinking.
Which home improvement center has the tag line played over and over through their speaker system (paraphrasing) ‘doers getting things done’.
If you think about it, ‘Doers’ don’t think. They just ‘do’. A perfectly controllable, mindless herd.
Going one step further, is to have these proles so mentally damaged, they actually think, there’re thinking.
Which brings us to our chief cook and bottle washer for the day: Southwest Airlines
Southwest Cancels Flights:
The official company line is cancellations were due to weather which is obviously not true.
This report from KHOU in Houston, says the cancellations were about something else. It’s in the title but that’s not what the news story’s really about.
Go ahead and watch. Stop the video after thirty seconds and tell me (figuratively) what’s the real intent.
If you can ‘see’, it’ll be obvious.
Actually, this was an easy one.
This news story has nothing to do with cancellations and everything to do with ‘compliance.’
Present the image over and over of compliance (masks) and then it takes on a life of its own.
For example, we can see that type of compliance in this Facebook post (at left) put out in my area just yesterday.
It’s not hard to surmise (and tragically, so) there’s probably not going to be a ‘Second Year’ photo shoot.
This Is Now:
I have family members that essentially fall into two camps:
The first, plugs their ears and chant “la, la, la, it’s not happening”.
The other camp mumbles over and over (for years now) “it shouldn’t be this way”.
Neither camp has, is, or will do anything to get ready.
Icing on the cake is the typical response of, ‘Your information’s not from a reputable source’.
What, like Fox News?
You may, and probably do have similar stories.
In line with it’s not happening, or the government should fix it so it won’t be this way, we have Dan from I Allegedly.
He just posted another update. At time stamp 20:20, people are still expecting a fourth stimulus check.
That’s something else that’s not happening.
Which all brings us to what really is happening … our second topic of the day: Biotech
Biotech SPBIO (LABD) Analysis:
It’s been an up day for biotech (down for LABD) thus far but that’s not the real story.
The chart below is from earlier in the session. We’re looking at the leveraged inverse fund LABD, on the hourly basis:
Next, we have our ‘usual suspects’ mark-up showing us the potential opportunity:
From a personal standpoint, being short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation) has been tiring.
Especially on days like today.
You can watch your main account fluctuate (in the red) by what used to be, in the corporate world, two to four week’s pay; all happening in a single hour.
However, even as this post is being created, we now have LABD posting the following:
Upside action off the spring looks strong. However, there could still be a downward test.
SPBIO, Last Chance?:
Intuitively, this could be it for biotech (SPBIO) to the upside.
The reason for that conclusion is:
If the spring set up holds with sustained upward action in LABD, it sets up a potential measured move condition (not shown); targeting LABD to much higher levels.
In that case, SPBIO would move lower … much lower and possibly well past any nearby major support.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
‘Way hay and … up she rises … early in the morning.’
Left out of the beautiful rendition above, is the following:
Put him in the bed with the captain’s daughter Put him in the bed with the captain’s daughter Put him in the bed with the captain’s daughter Early in the morning’
One of, if not the largest ‘storable food’ supplier closes down because it can’t get product.
Is the local bullion dealer closing down for three months?
I’m not against the metals.
I’m against, the abdication of honor, character, and bravery just so I can grow my YouTube channel with popular ‘stacking’ clips.
Pointing one’s followers single-mindedly to ‘stacking’ (as the means to survive the collapse) by definition, points them away from understanding what’s happening on a world-wide basis.
If you watch the old TV shows like Gunsmoke, The Rifleman, Superman, and on, one theme keeps repeating.
That is, the disgust for cowardice; especially from the women and rightly so.
It really must have been a big deal back then. If you were labeled a coward or ‘yellow’, your life was basically over.
We all have our areas of ‘fear’ and the author here, being no exception.
Maybe, just maybe after it’s all over, if Hollywood’s still around (I won’t be sad if they’re not), they might figure it’s a good idea to toss the CGI.
I’m not holding my breath.
No. 10
The Elephant’s ‘Knew’
No one told the elephant tribe, their benefactor and protector had died (time stamp: 3:48).
They just knew (a phenomenon discussed previously) and traveled 12-hours to pay respects.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Just like the biotech sector intentionally euthanizing (a polite word for what’s really happening) its customer base, here we have another entity calling out its own followers as the problem.
It’s similar to the rabid, mindless, one-way (only goes up) gold bulls crying ‘it’s all rigged’, when their pathetic attempts at analysis don’t work out; we now have another entity citing YOU as the problem when the forecasts fall flat.
This is yet another so-called financial source that can be permanently crossed off the watch list.
Brutal, But Beneficial:
Admittedly, the ‘tone’ of the posts on this site are not for everyone.
Even mild-mannered Dan at I Allegedly, finds himself responding to snowflakes that complain about his ‘get ready’ posts.
There’s good reason why the average are so ignorant.
For those who were actually listening in middle-school, the history books conveniently leave out the part where millions of Americans died of starvation during the Great Depression.
No pictures of emaciated bodies. Nothing.
With what’s coming, we’re likely headed for mass casualties in one form or another. The financial community refuses (from what I’ve seen) to discuss this up-coming event.
For example:
If you’re still using a ‘financial advisor’ and they’re not talking about, or don’t know about the elephant, do you really want to be (paying for and) taking direction from someone who’s that lazy, fearful, or ignorant?
Prechter, said it himself when he stated, the next mega bear market’s going to wipe out the ‘wealth management’ industry.
We may be on the cusp of that now.
Not Advice:
With that said, this site does not, and will not give financial advice.
Each person has his (her) own situation in life. You are the one to decide on your next direction or action.
What this site does do, is attempt to provide analysis and supporting price action data on what’s really going on.
What’s the market saying about itself?
If you’re still reading, that was a very long intro to get to our topic for the day: Gold miners, GDX.
Wyckoff Analysis: Senior Miners, GDX
What we see from the weekly chart is straightforward.
GDX, has been channeling lower for about a year:
The next chart shows we’ve penetrated support and are now testing the underside.
Of note: GDX is in ‘spring’ position. An upward attempt is to be expected.
If GDX was to break out and start a sustained bull move, this would be the spot. We’re at the danger point.
In my view, the participants in this sector are borderline delusional, if not completely insane.
They disregard what the market’s actually doing; holding to a (so far, for years now) unverified belief that ‘$10,000/oz gold, is just around the corner.’
It could very well be … but only after the (possibly, soon to be) starving stackers have sold off their hoard to buy food.
One has to wrap their mind around the fact, we’re being subjected to a long term diabolical plan.
Thinking and acting with that long game in mind (in my view) provides at least a hope for not only survival, but positioning to prosper during the on-going collapse.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Biotech (SPBIO) is still well off the highs and in bear market (below 20%) territory.
We’re going to take the last section of the chart, highlighted below and expand it out to hourly.
Hourly detail is below:
There was a minor penetration of support yesterday, the 6th; that has resulted in a spring condition upward move.
Now, we’re at the Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace of the down-move that started on September 2nd.
Spring-To-Up-Thrust ?
Looking at the hourly, it’s clear just a little farther up and we’ll penetrate minor resistance (which is also the 23.6%, retrace). Doing so, would put price action in the all too familiar and well documented ‘spring to up-thrust’ condition.
At mid-session, with SPBIO retreating (slightly) from the highs, it may not make it to up-thrust, today.
However, one still needs to be aware of the possibility.
Positioning:
As my firm is positioned short this sector (not advice, not a recommendation), being in the red for the day is never fun.
However, at this juncture, the charts themselves say there’s nothing untoward about maintaining short.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
You would think with all the announcements about corporations (forcing) their employees to become ‘fully protected’, the biotech sector would be launching higher.
After all, that sector’s about to get a massive increase in revenue as the major players continue on with their ‘protection’ plan.
Looks like 1,400 non-compliant, undesirables have been dealt with.
Let’s do some math.
If that was 2% of the workforce, that means just for this employer alone, approximately 68,600 (subtracting 1,400 from 70,000) have now received a ‘bonus’ from the company.
If the scientific (real science) estimates are correct, the ‘elephant‘ will begin to kick in within six months and be fully effective (terminal) within five years.
This example is not the only one … Southwest Airlines just announced a similar push; fully ‘protected’ by the end of the year.
With all this good news, one would expect the biotech sector (SPBIO) to be launching higher in an unstoppable rally.
Um, no.
Let’s take a look at what’s really going on with the price action.
SPBIO (and 3X inverse, LABD):
We’re going to use the 3X inverse SPBIO fund LABD, for our analysis.
We’re about 30-minutes past the open and SPBIO, is heading lower with inverse LABD, moving higher:
We’re going to digress just a bit; updating on the ‘alternating’ action discussed in this update.
Price action above, is choppy and overlapping. That’s different from what we see now:
With all that being said, it’s possible LABD, has just confirmed the right side of a trend-line:
As a reminder, biotech (SPBIO) is the only major index that just finished three down quarters in a row.
If current action continues … it’s on track to make it four.
Wyckoff said it a century ago:
‘Somebody always knows something. That something, is reflected in the tape (price action)’.
The lies and reality don’t match. Biotech is losing steam … possibly in anticipation of an ‘event’ of some kind.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Yesterday’s action in SPY, closed lower but not before bouncing off the top of the ‘Neckline’ as shown below:
We should also note, during that session, action penetrated the support level established on September 20th.
It’s a completely natural market behavior to ‘spring’ off penetration(s). Today’s pre-market session is doing just that.
The reason is, once support is penetrated, it sets off a flurry of orders; sell, sell short, and buy … along with the associated stops.
It’s a busy area in the market. Those orders need to be sorted out.
That’s where we are now. However, a couple items to note.
One:
Since September 23rd, in the regular session, SPY has posted seven consecutive lower highs.
Two:
As shown below, if price action opens (or gets no higher) than 430.60 – 430.70, or so, that action is trading right at a Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace from the September 23rd high, to yesterday’s low:
Currently, with about 25-minutes to go before the open, SPY is right around 430.44 – 430.45.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
UE is posting his thoughts on inflation. That is, there isn’t any … just like what this site proposes.
The commenter asked ‘Why don’t you see it just like everybody else does?’
It’s incredible but very telling on the collective mindset of those who are (or allow themselves to be) easily manipulated.
High School Correlation:
It’s not much different than High School (what a joke that was).
The popular kids seeming to have it all while the nerds, the geeks, and the weirdos were all left out … or bullied.
However, the raw edge of real life is not High School. That’s where the opportunity is for those in the very small minority.
Everybody has an equal chance to grow up.
After (years ago) going to my 10-year High School reunion, I realized the vast majority never grow or challenge themselves in any way.
I could see during the event, more than a few were already alcoholics. Deadening the pain of their cowardice.
As it turned out, I realized that ‘popularity’ is a prison. Locking up the individual in a life of fear (of becoming unpopular) and the associated mediocrity that results.
How does that anecdote relate to the problem at hand … the markets?
S&P Review:
It’s early in the session and the S&P (SPY), is trading lower.
The daily chart shows possible completion of the H&S pattern discussed previously.
At the time, it was uncertain and certainly unpopular to suggest the (potential) all time high was in.
So, we’ll see if the SPY, heads lower to start bouncing around the neckline … providing more confirmation of a significant reversal.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 