Category Archives: Monty Python

The Case For ‘Swift’ Downside: XBI

June 6, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-12, Monty Python, Prechter, SPBIO, XBI 3 Comments

Rule Of Alternation

The last update presented a multi-timeframe analysis; medium to long-term (potential) bearish set-up in biotech, XBI.

This morning’s action appears to be confirming the up-thrust potential.

Now, we’ll get into why this move may happen quickly.

Multiple Timeframes

If the premise is correct, that we’ve gone through a month-long test of the weekly (timeframe) up-thrust, testing may now be complete.

Naturally, the power behind a weekly move, has more substantial effect than daily.

Next, the topic at hand; Prechter’s ‘Rule of alternation’.

Biotech XBI, Daily

The first chart shows detail on the last up-thrust.

Price action penetrated resistance, then posted five-days of congestion before breaking lower.

We’re labeling that congestion action as ‘complex’.

Next, we have the current situation. An apparent up-thrust in its initial stages.

If what we have now, is indeed an up-thrust, taking all the prior considerations into account, it’s reasonable to expect the subsequent move will be less complex, having different form, and move more quickly (not advice, not a recommendation).

In any case, we have a ‘hard stop’ for a short position, at the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Our Quest, Is At An End

Like something out of Monty Python, the entire analysis of downside potential feels like the quest is at an end.

However, just like the video snippet in the link above, what looks to be a dramatic conclusion to weeks if not months of work, could be completely derailed by a bunch of ‘French’ guys hanging out in a British castle 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Concept of ‘Test’

March 20, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, LABD, Monty Python, SPBIO, XBI 1 Comment

… Or, Natural Market Behavior

The financial press will always come up with some kind of ‘reason’ why the markets went up or down.

However, getting to the truth of price action is sometimes boring and also requires a focused amount of thinking.

That thinking requirement, puts it ‘right out‘ (as the Brits would say) for any kind of media consideration. 🙂

Therein lies the opportunity; case in point, biotech, XBI.

The sector did not move higher today as a result of any type of ‘good news’ for potential rate cuts; cuts that so far have yet to materialize (waiting now, for over a year).

No, XBI went higher today to ‘test’ the underside of resistance after its own break through that resistance.

Biotech XBI, 3-Day

As stated in the prior update, it’s going to take some kind of extra demand to get the sector back to bullish.

For now, it’s right below resistance and testing.

Obviously, what happens tomorrow, is important.

If we’re in a test, and not a new leg higher, the expectation is for very limited upside price action … if any.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Trading A Silver Collapse

September 18, 2022 By in Apmex, Food Supply, Genesis 41, Gold & Silver, Kitco, Monty Python, SD Buiilion, Silver Collapse 2 Comments

No One Expects The ‘Spanish Inquisition‘

No one expects the Spanish Inquisition like no one expects a collapse in silver.

From a contrarian standpoint, just because it’s not expected does not in itself, mean it’s going to happen.

However, this site’s been building a strategic premise for years, food supplies come first then precious metals (not advice, not a recommendation).

Here are links that span over two-years; successively building on the case, we’re (potentially) in a ‘Genesis 41‘ situation first more than a Wimar Republic event.

Corn Flattened

“Ten percent of the U.S corn crop was instantly wiped out last week during what’s described as an inland hurricane.”

‘Stacking’ … Strategic Error ?

“As we continue on, it’s becoming clear that single-mindedly stockpiling inedible metal in hopes of surviving what’s here now, and what’s coming, is a major (if not potentially fatal) blunder”.

Putin’s Gold … Paradigm, Not

“Gold has never been the same since the Derecho of 2020.

In fact, that was the pivot point for both gold and corn which are now, inversely correlated.”

Corn Train Wreck, Continues

“The food supply is, and is going to be destroyed; one way or another.”

… And This, Just Out

As if to drive that last bullet item home, we have:

Turkey Shortage This Fall? | “Bird Flu”

The ‘Right Side’ of The Trade

Being on the right side of the trade means by definition (nearly) everyone else, is on the wrong side.

The last report said that both silver and gold are at The Danger Point®; The location where risk is least for positioning either long or short (not advice not a recommendation).

Based on prior analysis, the expectation is for a continued decline in the precious metals.

Silver Trading ‘Vehicles’

There are many ways to work the silver market.

Several trading vehicles are silver futures (mini futures), silver ETFs, options on ETFs, leveraged bull and bear ETFs and lastly, the physical metal itself.

As of this date (9/18/22), quotes for a typical bag of ‘junk silver’ are below:

SD Bullion

$100 Face Value Bag: $2,006.44

Apmex

$100 Face Value Bag: $2,064.92

Kitco

$100 Face Value Bag: “Out of stock”

This is not an endorsement. The purpose here is to have ‘place-holder’ quote(s) going forward.

Summary

The post is already lengthy.

Next up on the ‘Silver Collapse’, we’ll discuss the other trading vehicles; futures, options, ETFs and leveraged ETFs.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Now, We See The Violence …

May 5, 2022 By in Dr. Elder, DRV, DRV-22-02, IYR, Monty Python, S&P 500, SPY, ZeroHedge

… Inherent In the System’

It may as well be a Monty Python skit.

The number of opinions forecasts, pontifications and gesticulations have reached levels beyond the absurd.

Everybody’s important and has some intellectual and/or philosophical missive to promulgate.

We have great levels of insight like the selected items below. As promised, these comments were taken from the article linked in the last post.

“I don’t need to pay some 78 year old to hold 1/2 my money in cash”

“What a joke. We’re heading for multi-year blow-off top”

“78 year old fund manager loses his azz … markets going nowhere but up”

“Parabolic increase to nosebleed levels and an epic explosion 3 years from now.”

Seems our idiot/lazy Boomers, Gen-X-rs, Millennials, Gen-Z-rs, and just about everybody else, is the genius in the room; except for the 78-year-old.

He’s just a buffoon.

If someone has no real skill, experience or initiative, they resort to trash-talk like we see above.

Getting the right experience is the hard part.

Having experience in the markets involves many years of education (i.e. losses).

Just for documentation’s sake, let’s take a look at two examples of what experience looks like; each in their own respective industries.

Exhibit A:

Go ahead, check out this Bubba from Amarillo, Texas.

His customers drive from neighboring states, hundreds, if not thousands of miles away to have him rebuild their transmissions.

Within the first 5-minutes of the video above, there’s probably 30-years of experience on display.

I would suspect his rebuilds go for top-dollar; rightly so.

Then, we have this:

Exhibit B:

Yesterday’s market action, and today’s, has happened before.

That is:

A sharp multi percentage point, headline grabbing spike higher (within a down market), that’s immediately reversed the very next day.

Not only that, but the reversal also signified a bear market had started in earnest.

S&P 500, SPY, Daily Chart

Let’s set the stage.

In our example, the S&P had already topped and reversed.

It spent the next seven months heading lower and then retracing upward to an eventual downside reversal.

The next leg down continued, but then a few days later, there’s a massive, headline grabbing, upward spike.

Is the bear market over?

Is this the signal to buy the dip like our ‘experts’ above think for the current situation?

The next day, price action reversed the entire gain (like it has done today).

The chart shows the result.

From a personal standpoint, a 78-year old that’s still mentally sharp enough to provide his services and is not an obvious (globalist) sell-out the likes of which are on CNBC, then I’m very keen on what he would have to say.

His message: It’s the biggest bear market of his life.

Secondly, as Dr. Elder has said, ‘Trading is an old man’s game’. A good memory is critical to creating an edge.

In our example, I remember that upward spike well.

It was a Thursday.

The next day, price action reversed hard to the downside.

It never looked back for nine months.

Summary:

Is the S&P scenario described above, where we are now?

History never repeats itself exactly.

However, one can propose with some level of confidence, if today was the kickoff to the next leg, it has potential to be the fastest, farthest down price action in market history (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279