Category Archives: SLV

Silver’s Bearish Divergence (again)

October 5, 2024 By in Dollar, Dr. Elder, Gold & Silver, Livermore, serpentza, SLV, UUP Tags: , , , ,

Has Our Hyperinflation ‘Nutcase’ Escaped?

Well, ladies and gentlemen, here we are.

We’re about to find out if silver (SLV), is headed for a breakout, sideways congestion and/or, outright reversal.

In a world that seems to be allergic to the truth (as serpentza, put it), we’re going to do just that; look at the truth, the price action itself.

The last update, link here, said to watch for an SLV, breakout that could fail, confirming a bearish divergence.

From the intro line, here we are.

We have the breakout.

All that’s missing is continuation higher or reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, let’s go to the truth of the matter, the SLV chart.

Silver SLV, ETF, Daily

Years ago, Dr. Elder stated, when MACD histogram and MACD lines are parallel (bearish divergence), it’s a rare occurrence.

The coming week might be the deciding factor.

Before we leave this post, let’s throw in a bonus and consider the dollar ‘collapse’ narrative.

Dollar ‘Collapse’, Where?

Below is an updated chart of the dollar index.

Note the arrow to this link, posted nearly four years ago!

Dollar Index UUP, Weekly

It’s important to note, at the time the ‘Reversal Ready’ post was created, there was absolutely no-one (that was known) indicating the dollar index was headed significantly higher.

This is what’s meant by ‘Strategy’ in the About section.

Livermore was focused on what’s going (or likely) to happen in a big way.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver’s Bearish Divergence

September 25, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, NVDA, SLV Tags: 2 Comments

Prepare for Hysteria

If you know something’s coming, then you can keep your head when it actually happens.

Nothing seems to bring out the (dollar collapse) pundits more than precious metals and specifically silver; we can throw in Nvidia as well, but that’s another story.

Strategically, Wyckoff analysis all the way back to April, of this year has proven correct.

That is, silver is not launching into some kind of hyperinflation breakout; it would have already done so.

No, silver is either preparing for a downside reversal or sideways congestion (not advice, not a recommendation).

We have one datapoint after another, the consumer is strapped; corporations, industries using silver are collapsing, going bankrupt; bullion dealers themselves have said silver demand has evaporated and on it goes.

With that, let’s look at what silver (SLV) is telling us.

Silver SLV Tracking ETF, Weekly

As of this post (10:45 a.m., EST), silver (SLV) is nearing yesterday’s high of 29.44

We’ve got a weekly bearish divergence that will be in effect if there’s a breakout and downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, the question is, what happens if/when we get a breakout?

One thing is almost for sure, the ‘dollar collapse’ pundits, YouTubers et al., will be out in force. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bookmark This Page …

September 8, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Federal Reserve, Gold & Silver, Interest Rates, One Way Pockets, SLV, Solar Power

We’ll Be Back

No sooner had yesterday’s post been published, than a scant few hours later, we have this:

Silver, hero of the ‘new economy’.

What new economy?

That would be Solar Energy and Artificial Intelligence; two bubbles that have already popped (not advice, not a recommendation).

Going a bit farther back to this post, a proposal that more distribution takes place on the way down, than up.

At least, that’s the way it was back in 1917, when this text was first published.

Is what we see here, touting a premise that’s already expired, not the same (distribution) script of a century ago?

Bookmark & Back

As was done with this post where the ‘Fed Pivot’ was discussed, now renamed to ‘rate cut’, the page was bookmarked and reviewed six months later.

That review was in the summer of last year!

Of course, there was no Fed Pivot (rate cut) to be found.

So, we’ll do the same here but with a caveat.

That is, silver may indeed rise in price for reasons discussed many times (miner implosion).

However, we’re really focused on that ‘new economy’.

Let’s see if six months from now, we’re all humming along in a Brave New World.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver & Solar

September 7, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, CDE, Federal Reserve, GORO, Great Depression 2.0, HL, Interest Rates, NEXA, PAAS, SLV, Solar Power, TLT, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Looks Like Demand Has Evaporated

Those who ‘drank the Kool-Aide’ about silver being bolstered to astronomical heights because, you know, ‘solar energy’, must be a little upset by now.

Just like the fabled ‘interest rate cut’, it’s not happening.

Although for interest rates, we’re just shy of two weeks away to find out; meanwhile, since the last report, the bond market has been bid up again, pushing rates down (again), so, we’ll see.

Back to silver.

We have yet another so-called ‘green energy’ company going bankrupt. That’s not so much news, except for this statement from the report (paraphrasing):

‘Solar demand has declined across the entire industry’

Um, it’s called an economic depression (not advice, not a recommendation).

While we’re talking collapse, let’s just throw in the Chat GPT (Artificial Intelligence) collapse as well, link here.

With all of that as the backdrop, let’s see what silver is up to these days.

Silver, SLV ETF, Weekly

A terminating wedge with an MACD crossover.

We’re at the spot with price could go either way. There has been no wedge breakout to the upside, or down.

If we do get an upside breakout, the position of the MACD is set-up for a potential bearish divergence.

Covered many times on this site; the possibility that precious metals could move higher as a result of the miners imploding.

Adding to that idea are the components of tracking SILJ, silver miner EFT. How many of these outfits have an actual P/E?

PAAS does not, HL … no, CDE … no, NEXA … no, GORO … no, and on it goes.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Surprise Continues … Down

September 2, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, Prechter, Semiconductors, SLV, SOXX 1 Comment

It’s An Industrial (economic) Metal

Things just aren’t working out for the silver bulls.

The metal is down yet another 1% in today’s session.

Not only that as we’ll see below, but we could also be in a downward trading channel as well.

Talk about a ‘hyperinflation breakout’ has all but disappeared and we’re back to the (very lame, by now) excuse that it’s all because of those evil ‘manipulators’.

Leaving delusion behind, back to reality, price action itself, this site’s been consistent for over five months.

That is, silver’s exhibiting characteristics of a downside reversal or sideways congestion (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver SLV, Daily

From the chart above, we can see the right-side being confirmed over the past four or five sessions (black arrow contact points).

Also noted, there’s a Fibonacci time correlation between the intermediate high on July 11th and the right-side channel line contact on August 27th.

July 11th, was also the SOXX top.

About two decades ago, Prechter first proposed, ‘It’s all the same market’; meaning, that it’s the liquidity in the system that’s moving prices.

As that ‘liquidity’ dries up with more demand for cash (fiat, or not), the expectation is for the market indices to respond to that demand (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Silver ‘Surprise’

July 26, 2024 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, JDST, JDST-24-05, SLV 1 Comment

Confusion Abounds

Looks like the silver wipeout took more than a few by surprise.

However, that’s not the real story.

Some of the comments on various YouTube ‘analysis’ sites are to the effect:

I don’t know what to believe. I don’t know what’s real.

The inference is, that silver ‘should’ have gone higher.

There was supposed to be some kind of massive breakout as we head into hyperinflation, right?

Track Record, vs. ‘Should’

Part of the reason for posts on this site is to establish a track record.

The silver analysis over the past four months is the best recent example.

That assessment never wavered; price action in SLV, is consistent with either an outright reversal, or sideways congestion (not advice, not a recommendation).

It is not consistent with a hyperinflation breakout.

Longtime visitors to this site would have least known that ‘something’s up’ with silver.

Its behavior does not fit the narrative.

Anything Can Happen

As always, the market can reverse and do something unexpected.

Price action could change character.

If so, the objective is to identify that change early, then assess opportunities (if any).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Metals … ‘Whacked!’

July 25, 2024 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-24-05, SLV, UNG, UNG-24-11

Just Shocking

Especially shocking after having been subjected to non-stop delusion (now going on four months), and being ‘certain’ precious metals were headed higher.

Enough already.

Silver (SLV) is currently trading down a whopping -4.7%, in the pre-market session. Gold (GLD) is lower by about -1.2%.

Silver analysis has been consistent; SLV, price action itself, indicates a top and reversal or at best, sideways congestion (not advice, not a recommendation)

If one wants to review, starting back in April, we have:

Silver Top, Top Part II, Top Part III, Top Part IV, Top Part V, Top Part VI, Top Part VII, Top Part VII+, Stalls-Out

Now, this update essentially completes the process.

Silver, SLV, is about to open well below resistance as shown in the ‘Stalls-Out, update.

The Battle Against ‘Tik-Tok’ Brain

Fewer and fewer have a brain … like this (warning, profanity).

This guy sounds very much like the one in the ‘About‘ section. 🙂

Housekeeping: UNG, JDST

As can be inferred, a short trade via JDST, has already been opened: JDST-24-05.

Depending on today’s action, the stop listed is likely to be moved higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nat-Gas (UNG), on the other hand, is not behaving as expected.

The initial position UNG-24-11, was reduced by 80%, as a result of yesterday’s action. It’s likely that position will be closed out completely during this session (if not already).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Stalls-Out (Again)

July 20, 2024 By in Copper, Dr. Elder, FCX, Gold & Silver, Lumber, SLV 1 Comment

It Must Be Those Evil ‘Manipulators’

When the ‘forecasts’ don’t work out, the complaining comes out.

As Dr. Elder said (paraphrasing), ‘Mistakes in the market are to be expected. Repeating mistakes is a sign of neurosis’.

Typical responses from a YouTube site, forever expecting the ‘hyperinflation’ launch, the usual suspects:

Silver is beyond pathetic

Uggggh premature [launch] AGAIN!

… negative sentiment … a little overdone

Actually, if we’re in a full-blown economic depression, negative sentiment has not even started (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver, along with copper (and lumber) are good indicators for the health of the economy. So far, lumber has crashed outright; down ~70% from its 2021, peak.

For copper bellwether, Freeport McMoRan (FCX), it has not looked back since this report.

Let’s move on to silver. What’s the market telling us about the next likely direction?

Silver SLV, Weekly Close

As Yogi Berra said … ‘It’s Deja Vu all over again’ 🙂

The last time there was a similar upside volume crescendo, it marked the pivot point for a 30%, decline.

That decline took two-years to (fully) recover. Hardly ‘hyperinflation’.

Now, we’re at The Danger Point®, anything can happen.

If it’s another downside pivot, just the looks suggest a deeper decline than last time.

If, however, this time really is different, one would expect the upside to get started … and soon.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Top … Part VII … Plus

July 7, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, SLV

The Dash For Cash

Everyone’s scrambling for cash … but it’s ‘fiat cash’, they want.

Debts are paid with fiat cash. Food is bought with fiat cash. The local coin shop or pawn shop runs on fiat cash.

Or to be more accurate these days, ‘credit’ or ‘debit’ fiat cash.

The ‘Squeeze’ of 2021

Before getting to the chart (below), let’s go back to the ‘squeeze’, February of ’21; labeled as ‘Remember This?’

Back then it was hysteria just like now.

If you remember, the little guy was going to ‘put it to da man’; force their hand to admit there wasn’t enough physical to cover demand, yada, yada, on it went.

So, what really happened?

Well, the SLV ETF, (proposed or) changed its rules of silver allocation, that’s what happened. 🙂

Sorry Charlie, no silver squeeze this time.

These two posts covered the crowd delusion (and price action) fairly well; links here and here.

Is this time any different? Let’s go to the chart.

Silver SLV, Weekly

A prior update, link here, said that silver SLV, was at, or near a measured move target.

Still true; however, it didn’t make it there exactly. So, technically speaking, the target’s still in play.

Probably more important, is what we have now.

At the right side, we can see SLV, price (net) distance traveled is becoming shorter.

While that’s happening, commitment to that move, Force Index, is now bearish divergent (not advice, not a recommendation).

Industrial Metal

While the kabuki theater known as rabid silver and gold bulls, continue to run amok, we have more and more evidence the economy is in full-blown decline.

By this time, referencing ‘official’ statistics, needs to be considered a ‘blue pill‘ move. It’s not reality.

So, here are just a few links, boots on the ground truth; here, here and here.

Half of silver produced is used in industry.

If the economy (industry) is contracting, would not silver do the same?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Top … Part VII

June 15, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, SD Buiilion, SLV

‘There’s … No Demand’

The tagline above, paraphrased from the Chief Operating Officer of SD Bullion (time stamp 5:47, link here), is telling us all we need to know.

Over two months ago, that ‘no demand’ potential was reached by reading price action of SLV, itself (not advice, not a recommendation).

Back then, posted here, was this (emphasis added):

“Just listening to what the market’s telling us, it says, when SLV, reaches a top and inflection point (to reverse lower), it tends to print heavy upside volume bar(s).”

With the caveat that ‘anything can happen’, let’s take a rational look at what SLV, price action is telling us now.

Silver SLV, Weekly

Based on prior action (circled areas), it’s not looking good for the bulls (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’re at the spot where there needs to be outsized demand to get SLV, above what’s now well-established resistance.

If the COO of SD Bullion himself says ‘there’s no demand’, then where’s that ‘outsized’ breakout demand going to come from?

With this being the seventh update on the (potential) reversal in SLV, this series is complete.

As a parting shot, buried within the interview (link above) is the hint; dealers, just like everyone else are scrambling for cash; yes, ‘fiat cash’.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279