Category Archives: SLV

Silver Stalls-Out (Again)

July 20, 2024 By in Copper, Dr. Elder, FCX, Gold & Silver, Lumber, SLV 1 Comment

It Must Be Those Evil ‘Manipulators’

When the ‘forecasts’ don’t work out, the complaining comes out.

As Dr. Elder said (paraphrasing), ‘Mistakes in the market are to be expected. Repeating mistakes is a sign of neurosis’.

Typical responses from a YouTube site, forever expecting the ‘hyperinflation’ launch, the usual suspects:

Silver is beyond pathetic

Uggggh premature [launch] AGAIN!

… negative sentiment … a little overdone

Actually, if we’re in a full-blown economic depression, negative sentiment has not even started (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver, along with copper (and lumber) are good indicators for the health of the economy. So far, lumber has crashed outright; down ~70% from its 2021, peak.

For copper bellwether, Freeport McMoRan (FCX), it has not looked back since this report.

Let’s move on to silver. What’s the market telling us about the next likely direction?

Silver SLV, Weekly Close

As Yogi Berra said … ‘It’s Deja Vu all over again’ 🙂

The last time there was a similar upside volume crescendo, it marked the pivot point for a 30%, decline.

That decline took two-years to (fully) recover. Hardly ‘hyperinflation’.

Now, we’re at The Danger Point®, anything can happen.

If it’s another downside pivot, just the looks suggest a deeper decline than last time.

If, however, this time really is different, one would expect the upside to get started … and soon.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Top … Part VII … Plus

July 7, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, SLV

The Dash For Cash

Everyone’s scrambling for cash … but it’s ‘fiat cash’, they want.

Debts are paid with fiat cash. Food is bought with fiat cash. The local coin shop or pawn shop runs on fiat cash.

Or to be more accurate these days, ‘credit’ or ‘debit’ fiat cash.

The ‘Squeeze’ of 2021

Before getting to the chart (below), let’s go back to the ‘squeeze’, February of ’21; labeled as ‘Remember This?’

Back then it was hysteria just like now.

If you remember, the little guy was going to ‘put it to da man’; force their hand to admit there wasn’t enough physical to cover demand, yada, yada, on it went.

So, what really happened?

Well, the SLV ETF, (proposed or) changed its rules of silver allocation, that’s what happened. 🙂

Sorry Charlie, no silver squeeze this time.

These two posts covered the crowd delusion (and price action) fairly well; links here and here.

Is this time any different? Let’s go to the chart.

Silver SLV, Weekly

A prior update, link here, said that silver SLV, was at, or near a measured move target.

Still true; however, it didn’t make it there exactly. So, technically speaking, the target’s still in play.

Probably more important, is what we have now.

At the right side, we can see SLV, price (net) distance traveled is becoming shorter.

While that’s happening, commitment to that move, Force Index, is now bearish divergent (not advice, not a recommendation).

Industrial Metal

While the kabuki theater known as rabid silver and gold bulls, continue to run amok, we have more and more evidence the economy is in full-blown decline.

By this time, referencing ‘official’ statistics, needs to be considered a ‘blue pill‘ move. It’s not reality.

So, here are just a few links, boots on the ground truth; here, here and here.

Half of silver produced is used in industry.

If the economy (industry) is contracting, would not silver do the same?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Top … Part VII

June 15, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, SD Buiilion, SLV

‘There’s … No Demand’

The tagline above, paraphrased from the Chief Operating Officer of SD Bullion (time stamp 5:47, link here), is telling us all we need to know.

Over two months ago, that ‘no demand’ potential was reached by reading price action of SLV, itself (not advice, not a recommendation).

Back then, posted here, was this (emphasis added):

“Just listening to what the market’s telling us, it says, when SLV, reaches a top and inflection point (to reverse lower), it tends to print heavy upside volume bar(s).”

With the caveat that ‘anything can happen’, let’s take a rational look at what SLV, price action is telling us now.

Silver SLV, Weekly

Based on prior action (circled areas), it’s not looking good for the bulls (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’re at the spot where there needs to be outsized demand to get SLV, above what’s now well-established resistance.

If the COO of SD Bullion himself says ‘there’s no demand’, then where’s that ‘outsized’ breakout demand going to come from?

With this being the seventh update on the (potential) reversal in SLV, this series is complete.

As a parting shot, buried within the interview (link above) is the hint; dealers, just like everyone else are scrambling for cash; yes, ‘fiat cash’.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Top … Part VI

June 1, 2024 By in Dr. Elder, Ed Dowd, Gold & Silver, NVDA, Semiconductors, SLV, SOXS, SOXS-24-07, SOXX

Top Or Channel?

The market itself, tells us where to look.

The past five ‘Silver Top’ updates have looked at recent action, as a potential top and downside reversal.

The ‘Part V’, update (link here), included a ‘measured move’ target.

In the markets, an infinite number of events can be true simultaneously. Dr. Elder covers this in his book, with individual traders working multiple timeframes.

All of which brings us to the chart below.

Silver SLV, Monthly

From previous updates, we’re hovering around the support resistance zone.

Now, we can see price action’s also hitting the top of a trading channel.

The question of course is, what’s the next likely outcome?

Even without considering what else is going on in other markets, a pause, sideways congestion, or downward testing seems to be the highest probability (not advice, not a recommendation).

Did The ‘Bubble’ Just Pop?

When we do take other events into account, wide swings in the SOXX on Friday, Nvidia posting a narrow range weekly bar, a potential top indicator, Ed Dowd said, when this all implodes, there’ll be margin calls aplenty.

The technical situation of the SOXX, is planned for tomorrow’s update.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Top … Part V

May 26, 2024 By in GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, SILJ, SLV 1 Comment

Almost There … On Top Of Resistance

Here’s an obvious statement.

If silver’s going to breakout into ‘the big one’, it has to go higher (much higher) from here.

Can we say at this juncture, the press and ‘investors’ alike, are at max hyperbole?

Straight Out of The Bog

Here are just a few titles from the boggy moor, otherwise known as YouTube:

‘100% Certainty …’

‘Gold’s about to shock …’

‘… Warning to you all …’

‘… Prepare for the biggest rally ever ….’

And on it goes.

However, somehow finding its way out of the mire, we do have this: Bearish Reversal in Gold & Silver, link here.

From that link, and in Wyckoff terms, price action of ETF silver junior miner SILJ, is the clearest of the others, GDX and GDXJ.

Depending on how it goes this coming week, we’ll cover that ETF in a future update.

Now, back to silver. Does the actual truth, the chart, agree with the hype?

Silver SLV, Weekly

Since the last update SLV, reversed (higher) through what the market decided, was an intermediate resistance zone.

As shown below, SLV has pushed above the ‘last’ resistance and has come back to ‘test’.

Last week’s volume is shown as a red bar. Some prior red bars of similar size are highlighted on the chart.

This time could be different but the last time(s) such ‘negative’ volume occurred, resulting price action in SLV, was either sideways or down.

But wait, there’s more. The chart below shows SLV, has met or is near a measured move target.

The coming week could see SLV, inch its way higher to the measured move or continue the testing (possibly, reversal) action it started last week.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Copper Top

May 22, 2024 By in Copper, FCX, Gold & Silver, SLV

Commodity ‘Blow-Off’

Throughout market history, commodity tops usually end the same way … Boom!

This time around for copper, it appears to be no different.

If we go to the futures chart (link here), it’s self-explanatory.

From the link, select ‘MAX’ on the chart and we see, copper’s pulling back from all-time highs.

As always, it could somehow recover right along with silver (update due later).

However, using proxy Freeport-McMoRan Inc., (FCX), it has already printed an outside down weekly bar after posting a decade-long, new high:

That translates to ‘not good’ for the bulls (not advice, not a recommendation)

Freeport McMoRan, FCX, Weekly & Daily

Price action appears to be reversing or at least testing the resistance (blue) line; attempting to see if that line has now become support.

Moving in closer, we see the outside down weekly bar that has entered ‘back into the range’; just touching the Resistance/Support area.

If we get even closer and look at the daily, price action’s back in the trading range (bearish) and has also posted a divergent MACD (bearish).

Looking at the charts, we’re at The Danger Point®

This is the place where the market makes its decision (not advice, not a recommendation).

Inflation, Deflation, Stagflation … or … ‘X-Flation’

It’s interesting, but then again not, watching so-called experts pretend they have it figured out:

It’s inflation or stagflation or whatever.

How about the possibility of ‘non-of-the-above’?

The past four years have put us into a new construct, a new paradigm.

Before the 1970s, nobody even knew that ‘stagflation’ existed. It had never happened before.

So, what new construct is going to emerge (and be given a name) that has never happened before?

That’s the question.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Top … Part IV

May 3, 2024 By in David Weis, DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, SLV, Wyckoff, zsl

Below Resistance

When the upside comes to a halt, it’s the ‘evil manipulator’s’ fault.

At least, that’s the common lament from our friends and pundits, alike. 🙂

Just a reminder, the markets have always been manipulated.

Back in the day, Wyckoff understood this. He sought to find out through price action, the desired (market) outcome of those ‘manipulators’.

By using his technique and reading the tape, the most probable direction for silver (SLV) was either sideways congestion or downside reversal.

The last update, link here, had this to say:

“If we’re in an up-thrust about, to reverse lower or consolidate, this is the type of market behavior to expect (not advice, not a recommendation).”

From then, we see SLV has moved lower.

Silver SLV, Weekly

Can reversals themselves, be reversed?

Could SLV, somehow gain traction and move decidedly higher? As David Weis used to say, “Anything can happen”.

However, at this juncture, we have SLV closing lower the past two weeks. Volume was steady and elevated, indicating downside pressure.

Separately, the miners are struggling (especially the Juniors GDXJ) at resistance.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Top … Part III

April 20, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, Elsa Kurt, Gold & Silver, Greg Hunter, NVDA, SLV 1 Comment

Less Volume … Less Energy

Public Service Announcement

Before we get started, recognize there’s a huge public service available with the (media, YouTubers, et al.) discussion on potential gold, silver, rally ‘to the moon’.

Now that Nvidia (NVDA) has posted a reversal, it’s likely the bull market, if not completely over, is seriously damaged.

As Ed Dowd, former BlackRock fund manager suggested, (link here), when the market turns lower, everything’s likely to head down … everything; at least, initially.

The public service: We get to see (in real time) which analysis method is best suited to determine the truth of what’s really happening.

With that, let’s move on to the chart.

Silver SLV, Tracking ETF, Weekly

If this is an initial thrust to move higher, it’s losing energy; narrow range (weekly) bar with volume contracting.

If we’re in an up-thrust about, to reverse lower or consolidate, this is the type of market behavior to expect (not advice, not a recommendation).

Delusional In … Delusional Out

Like the Artificial Intelligence (AI) delusion, hyped-up beyond all conceivable expectations, it takes a while to deflate.

This past Friday may have been the start.

So too, it could be with precious metals.

If indeed, this time is different, and were in a sustained, long term (years-long) rally for silver (SLV), then look for the character of the price action to change.

One potential example of that would be, successive gaps higher of $5/oz., $10/oz., or more.

A real bull market breakout (like the S&P in 1995), does not let you get aboard comfortably.

Note: That breakout in ’95, was a complete shock to the typical market watcher.

The S&P had oscillated in a trading range for a year before launching decidedly higher in early ’95. In that sense, the breakout is/was the complete opposite of the ‘long awaited’ (potential) bull run in precious metals.

The Mood Has Shifted

Anecdotally, the mood appears to have shifted.

If we’ve just past the top in the market (S&P, Dow, SOXX), then expect the social construct to become unhinged.

Here’s just one example of how that looks.

If you thought it was irrational on the way up … what’s it going to be like on the way down?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Top … Part II

April 12, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, Inflation, SLV, Usual Suspects 1 Comment

More Volume … Less Net Distance

It’s been about a week since the last update on silver and the ‘usual suspects’ are out in force … again.

One of these days … Alice!

I like the metals as much as the next guy, but that doesn’t help when it’s time to stay focused on what the market’s (really) saying.

This week’s volume in SLV, was more than last week by about 16%, but net distance traveled (at the close) was far less … about 74%, less net travel … ruh, roh.

Silver SLV, Tracking ETF, Weekly

There’s a wide price spike for the week but it’s the close, that’s the important part, holding just above resistance.

Obviously, what happens next is important.

Typical market behavior for silver suggests we’re at or near a top and due for some kind of downside move if not a complete reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Different This Time

If this time really is different and we’re in the long-awaited hyperinflation move, we’ll probably find out soon.

If that’s the case, meaning, it really is different, one would expect the behavior of the metals to change; like silver holds its current level, moves higher, or starts congesting for another up-wave.

So, let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Top?

April 4, 2024 By in David Weis, Ed Seykota, Gold & Silver, Silver Collapse, SLV, Wyckoff, zsl 4 Comments

Know Your Market

There’s been something wrong with the precious metal’s, gold and silver, for years.

Gold and silver used to move essentially in tandem, over the long term; not anymore.

This link shows there’s a huge divergence in the correlation between the two metals. Gold has launched higher, while silver has lagged.

Right around June of 2020, the correlation began to break down. What else was going on (or being ‘rolled out’) around June of 2020?

Recall, silver’s primarily an industrial metal; affected much more (than gold) by manufacturing demand.

Strategy First

Shown by the market itself, direct correlation between silver and gold no longer applies (or has somehow changed into a new construct), silver’s not confirming the ‘inflation’ shtick, possibly influenced more by industrial demand.

Thus, we have the following.

Silver SLV, Weekly

Just listening to what the market’s telling us, it says, when SLV, reaches a top and inflection point (to reverse lower), it tends to print heavy upside volume bar(s).

Looking at the chart, price action’s all over the place. Wide bars, volume spikes, the gamut.

Markets like this are unstable and usually can’t mount a sustained move in either direction.

Typically, if there’s going to be a breakout (or breakdown), price action tends to get tight, or get itself into a ‘coil’.

Even so, we need to account for the market itself.

Having traded silver futures contracts during the last run up and meltdown from 2011 – 2014, the silver market is thin and likes to ‘spike’.

That (spike) behavior is confirmed by Ed Seykota in Market Wizards and David Wies in his (formerly) daily market updates.

We may be at the beginning of a set-up for a Wyckoff up-thrust (above resistance) and then reversal.

A possible measured move for SLV (to be covered in another update), puts the tracking ETF, right around 25.60, about 2-pts. from where we are now (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279