Category Archives: TMF-22-01

Gold, Set To Rally

November 4, 2022 By in GLD, LABD, LABD-22-09, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TLT, TMF, TMF-22-01, Wyckoff 3 Comments

But, How Far ?

The last update on gold (GLD), posted four trading days ago, (link here), said the following:

“If there’s going to be a break to the upside, this would be the place; otherwise, watch for continued GLD downside.”

From that update, GLD continued slightly lower, posted a new monthly low (yesterday) and got itself into Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

Now, in the pre-market (as of 8:41 a.m., EST), we see GLD, trading up approximately 2.1-points, or + 1.40%.

Let’s see where price action’s likely to go.

Gold (GLD), Daily

Spring set-ups have a tendency to go straight into an up-thrust as a repeating pattern.

The most likely point for an up-thrust, if GLD rallies from here, is shown below.

The up-thrust target is also a Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace level from the ‘Changing of Hands‘ high, set March 8th, this year.

If there is a rally, it’s potentially a temporary (but tradeable) upside event in an overall down market (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

Over the past few trading days, changes have been made as shown (not advice, not a recommendation)

TMF-22-01:

Discretionary exit @ 6.85***

Trade Closed

Gain on TMF-22-01: + 4.67%

LABD-22-09:

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71, 21.23*** Stop @ 18.69

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Relentless, Collapse …

November 3, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Jerimiah Babe, LABD, LABD-22-09, Positions, SPBIO, The Speck, TMF, TMF-22-01 1 Comment

Jerrimiah Babe, Calls It

In probably his best video update since he stared in early 2015, he lays out the details of what’s ahead.

Although not well versed in the markets (and he says so), he has enough experience, life-knowledge, to understand the current potential and likely outcome.

That is, ‘relentless collapse’.

Those of us who have been getting ready for years, know that we still aren’t ready. How can anyone be fully ready for a complete systems breakdown.

One ‘system’ that’s set for implosion and has been since before ‘The Speck’, is biotech.

Biotech: Cue The Implosion

It’s been an on again, off again, back on, and so on, with this index (SPBIO).

Every day now, sometimes multiple times a day, we see the effects of their ‘protection’. Wheels are in motion and we’re most likely just getting started … for decades to come.

Yesterday’s Fed announcement, may have (finally) provided the up-thrust and reversal needed to get this index in a sustained down move.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily Close

The daily chart shows the up-thrust test and reversal.

We’ll get into downside potential(s) in an upcoming post.

For now, the positioning remains unchanged (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

TMF-22-01:

Entry @ 7.166, Stop @ 6.77

LABD-22-09:

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71, Stop @ 18.69

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Reversal Bellwether

November 1, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Bonds, LABD, LABD-22-09, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, TLT, TMF, TMF-22-01, ZeroHedge

Is The ‘Collapse’ Back In Play?

When the market does not respond as expected, that means something else is happening.

Such may be the case for bonds.

Yesterday, we got this announcement during market hours.

Of course, the already hammered bond market (TLT), got hammed some more.

It’s what happened next, and what’s happening today, that’s important.

That is, the sell-off was quickly reversed (to the upside) with that upside continuing this session.

The bond supply is being absorbed.

So, what does that mean?

It’s possible, the bounce, melt-up, squeeze or whatever one wants to call it could be over. There may already be a ‘flight to safety’ if there’s such a thing these days.

But let’s not hypothesize on what could be happening. The market itself (price action), tells us.

Bonds TLT, Daily

At about mid-session, this is where we are.

We’re right at the downtrend line.

The attempt to mover lower (yesterday), has been rejected.

As a result of today’s new daily high, the stop on position TMF-22-01, has been moved up (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, we’re now between the downtrend and the ‘rejection’; something’s likely to break.

Summary

The S&P (SPY) just posted an up-thrust reversal early this session and is still moving lower as of this post.

Keep in mind, all of this is happening before any Fed announcement … as if the market has already decided.

A quick note on biotech, SPBIO.

Position size has been increased in SPBIO, leveraged inverse LABD, as shown below (not advice, not a recommendation).

This sector remains at The Danger Point®

If the bounce really is over, biotech is likely to get hit the hardest.

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

TMF-22-01:

Entry @ 7.166, Stop @ 6.77***

***, Indicates change

LABD-22-09***

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71***, Stop @ 18.69***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

After The Close …

October 31, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Bonds, GLD, LABD, LABD-22-09, Positions, TLT, TMF, TMF-22-01

Bonds, Gold, Biotech

Bonds:

Instead of upside follow-through, we had downside test and reversal.

Gold:

GLD, closes lower and is now down seven consecutive months … a record for the tracking ETF.

Biotech

Index SPBIO, has been attempting to move higher, with it posting into an up-thrust last week.

Today it couldn’t hold the upside; now looking like a nascent reversal.

Note: Position changes at the bottom of this update.

The test and reversal in bonds (TLT) is obvious and there’s no open position in GLD.

So, we’ll focus on biotech.

Biotech ($SPSIBI, SPBIO) Daily

The zoom area of the chart shows price action just can’t seem to get above resistance (blue line).

Successive attempts were made throughout today’s session to go higher, but it didn’t happen.

Getting in closer on the hourly chart, we see the apparent upside failure during the last hour of trading.

Biotech SPBIO, Hourly

There is no doubt where at The Danger Point®

Right about mid-session, a short position was opened via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation) as LABD-22-09.

Summary

Today’s expectation for bonds was a follow-through to the upside … it didn’t happen.

In response, the initial TMF-22-01, position was closed with the secondary remaining open (not advice, not a recommendation).

Meanwhile, biotech SPBIO, was having its own problems; that is, being in up-thrust condition and not being able to make a new daily high. i.e., The Danger Point®

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

TMF-22-01:

Entry @ 6.705, 7.166, Stop @ 6.68

Partial Exit @ 7.053***

***, Indicates change

LABD-22-09***

Entry @ 19.88***, Stop @ 18.94***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Reversal Targets

October 29, 2022 By in Bonds, IYR, Positions, Real Estate, TLT, TMF, TMF-22-01, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Trade or Strategic

It’s either a short-term trade or a strategic reversal.

On the strategic reversal side is this just out from ZeroHedge.

‘Inflation’ may have peaked; where have we heard that before.

However, the charts presented in that link, do show we’re at an extreme.

If we look at the TLT, price action itself, which is impulsive down, we’ll go with the short-term first (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that, Friday may have been the ‘test’ from our capitulation model.

The weekly chart of bonds TLT, shows the anticipated up-tick in MACD, as well as the measured move target from the terminating wedge.

Long Bond, TLT, Weekly

Note, the wedge has not (yet) broken to the upside … we’re still at The Danger Point®, where the trade could fail.

If we look at the daily chart, probabilities point higher.

Long Bond, TLT, Daily

If this past Friday was the ‘test’ of the move, the retrace was a very weak Fibonacci 23.6%.

A new daily high in the next session(s), will help to confirm we’re headed higher.

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

TMF-22-01:

Entry @ 6.705, 7.166***, Stop @ 6.68

***, Indicates change

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

Summary

If bonds continue to move higher, with rates heading lower, what’s going to happen to real estate, IYR ?

The wheels of the real estate crash have already been set in motion. If bonds rise, rates fall and IYR moves higher, there are specific targets to watch for short opportunities.

We’ll discuss those targets and more, in the next ‘The Market Set-Up … This Week’

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Capitulation ‘Model’

October 26, 2022 By in Bonds, GLD, Gold & Silver, Positions, Real Estate, TLT, TMF, TMF-22-01, Van Metre 1 Comment

Using The Gold Market Example

First up is the (downside reversal) analysis of the real estate market.

It was wrong; at least for now.

There’s nothing wrong with being wrong … it’s being wrong and staying wrong, that’s the problem.

What appears to be correct so far, is the upside reversal in the bond market.

We’re going to look at another capitulation to get some idea of what to expect if indeed bonds have reversed.

This past April, the gold market (GLD) capitulated on the upside. At the time, it was quickly and correctly identified as a ‘changing of hands’.

Gold (GLD) Capitulation

From a strategic standpoint, gold has not looked back.

Down around 20% (although slightly higher in today’s pre-market), there seems to be no major catalyst to get a similar capitulation reversal.

Using that reversal model and looking at bonds, we’ll use the 3X Leveraged Fund TMF, as the example.

Leveraged funds accentuate market moves, sometimes giving a clearer picture.

Bonds (TLT) 3X Leveraged Bull Fund, TMF

As far as what might be behind a (sustainable) bond reversal, we have this report from Steven Van Metre.

Using The ‘Model’

Note in the GLD reversal, prices went lower for a while and then came back to ‘test’.

Using that, we can expect TLT, TMF, price action to rise for some (unknown) period of time; then come back to ‘test’, before continuing higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Reversal

October 25, 2022 By in Bonds, Positions, TLT, TMF, TMF-22-01, Van Metre, Wyckoff

‘The Market Is A Tyrant’ … Wyckoff, 1910

This update, posted over the weekend, showed potential bond capitulation, set-up for reversal.

Wyckoff’s admonition (above quote) from his book Studies In Tape Reading, meant, the market dictates our actions.

Our job is to do what the market is telling us.

If we look at charts of TLT, and leveraged fund TMF, at this point (11:30 a.m., EST), it’s an obvious reversal.

Bonds TLT, Daily

We won’t know for sure if it’s an island gap, until the following sessions.

One indicator of potential (sustained) reversal is the leveraged bond fund TMF.

If we compress the daily chart, capitulation volume is clear.

Last Friday’s volume (29.1-million shares) was the highest by far, since the fund started in mid-April of 2009.

Bonds 3X Leveraged Bull, TMF, Daily

Trade or not?

It’s the trader’s discretion; with it being hard to imagine who wants U.S. Bonds.

However, as Steven Van Metre presents in this update, (time stamp, 3:30), foreign investors are interested.

With that, a long position has been opened at TMF 6.705 (TMF-22-01), with a stop in the vicinity of TMF 6.30.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Early Session Update

October 25, 2022 By in Bonds, DRV, DRV-22-05, IYR, Positions, TLT, TMF, TMF-22-01 1 Comment

The Market Is Always Right

If the market says no, the answer is no.

As of 9:55 a.m., EST that’s what it’s saying with the real estate short via DRV (DRV-22-05).

Today’s early rally stops out the position (not advice, not a recommendation), and the trade is closed.

Loss was approximately – 4.87%.

Not good but manageable.

On the flip side is the bond market.

Looks like we have the ‘island gap’ reversal discussed in prior updates.

A trade has been opened in leveraged bond fund TMF as TMF-22-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Charts to follow

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

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