Short Squeeze … 3rd Largest, Ever

Is It Over?

ZeroHedge reports, the third largest ever.

So, is it over?

Starting tomorrow, we’re about to find out.

When looking at biotech sector (SPBIO) on a close basis, today’s action stopped just short of making a new closing high since the up-thrust (reversal) of October 28th.

Effectively, it’s a test of that reversal.

On to the analysis.

SPBIO, Daily Close

We’re going to put the chart below with no mark-up; then invert to show the potential trade set-up.

SPBIO, Daily Close, Inverted

Now, we’re inverted and marked to show penetration below support and then, today’s test.

The zoom gets closer-in.

The market is stretched, no doubt.

In a way, it’s a good thing. Either the test will hold and SPBIO, will decline from here (in earnest) or there’s something else going on and we’ll exit to look for another trade (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

LABD-22-09:

As stated, in the prior update, LABD-22-09, position size was reduced during the session by about 10%.

Special Note:

This sector and leveraged inverse LABD are highly volatile. Character of the market can change at any time.

LABD may be exited without notice.

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71, 21.23, 21.65, 22.16, 22.75 Stop @ TBD***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Biotech (Short) Test

Proverbial ‘Gut-Check’

It looks bad for being short biotech and maybe it is.

However, as we’ll see below, the leveraged inverse fund LABD, could be completing its reversal set-up.

While today’s thrust higher in the overall markets was not unexpected (shown here and here), one should take note of the violence.

As of this post, from yesterday’s low to today’s high, the Dow has moved over 1,000-pts.

It’s what happens next that’s important.

Weak shorts are probably terrified, have covered, now wondering what went wrong.

So, let’s take a look at the short position on biotech SPBIO, and see if it really is ‘wrong’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

SPBIO, Leveraged Inverse Fund LABD, Daily

What we can see (above) is that LABD, is following the Wyckoff Schematic near exact for a spring set-up.

It’s just that today’s move is especially sharp and so one would think the set-up has failed … not so fast.

Another reason to think we’re completing a test of the spring, is below. Today is Fibonacci Day 34, from the high (low on SPBIO), set on September 26th.

We also have a potential trading channel as well.

As this post is being created, LABD is hovering at its lows; currently (as of 1:30 p.m., EST) trading at 19.89

Summary

Yesterday was an important day but it was not obvious, and not (yet) directly related to the markets.

A report was released on ZeroHedge (link here) which essentially confirms what some of us in the proletariat have known for years … if not decades.

It’s now out in the mainstream.

How long before the ‘elephant’ makes its way there also?

If indeed we’re at a reversal test of biotech and if that test passes (SPBIO downside continues), the move has the potential to be historic.

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

LABD-22-09:

Price action blew through the stop located at 20.21 and is now hovering at those levels. The LABD position is being maintained but will likely be reduced in size as we head into the close (not advice, not a recommendation).

Special Note:

This sector and leveraged inverse LABD are highly volatile. Character of the market can change at any time.

LABD may be exited without notice.

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71, 21.23, 21.65, 22.16, 22.75 Stop @ 20.21

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Leaves The Station … Again

How Many Times?

How many times does gold need to ‘leave the station‘, before it’s actually left?

That’s probably a better question to ask rather than freaking out every time there’s a blip higher.

Was the recent ‘blip’ tradeable? Yes.

Is the move sustainable to the upside … probably not but only price action will tell.

Did Wyckoff analysis give advance notice that gold (GLD), could move higher?

Yes, it did … link here and here.

That first link even shows how far GLD, is likely to go, which at this point, is just ticks away.

Gold GLD, Daily

We’ll start first with the original forecast.

And the result (as of 1:20 p.m., EST).

We can see price action nearing the up-thrust (reversal) location.

Note: Penetration to the upside above resistance, does not necessarily mean it’s a short opportunity.

Any opportunity will be determined by price action itself.

Summary

Wyckoff analysis not only can provide potentials for price movement; when that move happens, it can also be a stabilizing factor so that one is not caught up in the usual media hysteria.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, biotech sector (SPBIO) is still on track (ever so slowly) for a potential sustained move to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

LABD-22-09:

Special Note:

This sector and leveraged inverse LABD are highly volatile. Character of the market can change at any time.

LABD may be exited without notice.

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71, 21.23, 21.65, 22.16, 22.75*** Stop @ 20.21

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘No One In Control … ‘

Um, Yes There Is …

The latest from ZeroHedge is, ‘there’s no one in control.’

The latest from Wyckoff analysis is, ‘price action’s in control’, if you know where to look. 🙂

This week’s watch-list was laid out two days ago, here and so far, all topics discussed, are preforming as expected.

For this update (30-minutes before open) we’re going to focus on Tesla (TSLA).

Tesla, TSLA, Daily

There’s a lot going on.

We’re not in the ‘free-fall’ zone yet, but it’s getting close.

Downside volume has increased significantly.

The channel is being confirmed but we’re nearing support in the 188.00 – area (not shown).

Remember, when price action declines below known support levels, depending on the depth of penetration, we could be in Wyckoff spring position.

There could be an upside response to the break below current support located at approx. 198 – 200.

Summary

Q: Is TLSA, a short?

A: That’s at the trader’s discretion (not advice, not a recommendation).

My firm’s accounts do not have a position in TSLA … and if/when they do, it would likely be small.

It’s true the EV hysteria is a bubble. Supply chain collpase will make sure of that.

However, it does not even compare to the ‘elephant’, and we all know what that is.

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

LABD-22-09:

Special Note:

This sector and leveraged inverse LABD are highly volatile. Character of the market can change at any time.

LABD may be exited without notice.

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71, 21.23, 21.65, 22.16*** Stop @ 20.21***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Market Set-Up … This Week

What To Watch … Biotech, Gold, Real Estate, Tesla

Biotech:

There’re a lot of moving parts to biotech and it’s like a game of chicken.

Is there going to be another ‘planned’ event pulled out of the bag that requires ‘protection’ or will this side (and this one) win-out before that happens?

Price action’s always the final arbiter and right now, it’s positing lower.

Gold:

Gold (GLD) ‘blipped’ higher on Friday and the usual suspects are out touting the hyperinflation narrative.

Owning (some) precious metals seems to be a good thing.

However, the public constantly knee-jerks into this sector and is absolutely rabid in their behavior (i.e., silver stockpiles are running out!!!).

It suggests at least, there’s something else afoot.

Prechter published in the early 2000’s, Central Banks, are followers, not leaders. The fact they are buying gold at this point, may be a contrary indicator.

Talk about going against the herd. 🙂

Over and again, it’s the boring (does not generate ‘clicks’) food supply first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

Real Estate:

What can be said?

It’s the largest manufactured bubble in world history and it has already popped.

Thinking it’s all going to sort itself out in a year or two is delusional. We’ve probably got decades of bear market.

Tesla:

Anyone with an anode of research capability, knows the whole EV premise, is based on a falsehood.

However, that fact is probably not what’s going to bring Tesla (and the rest of the market) down.

Let’s stop for a moment and consider the above link which has been available for nearly four-years.

How many views? Just 9,824 (as of this post)

That equates to only 0.003% of the U.S. population.

As the global supply chains implode, getting parts and having stable infrastructure (i.e., electricity) will probably be the defining factor.

Now, on to the charts.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily Close

The following sessions will let us know if we’re at the right edge of the downtrend line.

We’ve already had an up-thrust reversal and a test of that reversal. last Friday was lower … probabilities point down.

Gold GLD, Daily

Looking at the chart on the strategic, longer term, Friday’s blip is hardly noticeable. We’ve already presented how this could be a minor up-thrust (reversal) in itself.

To keep the upside intact, price action must remain and continue above current levels.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

Real estate may be working its way into an up-thrust condition. As shown, Fibonacci Day 21 from the October 13th, low is this coming Thursday, the 10th.

According to the Economic Calendar there are several potential catalysts that may push the price above resistance (temporarily).

Tesla TSLA, Weekly

The short-term look has been presented here.

Longer term downside potential is disconcerting.

Major support near the 25-level.

Summary

When we look at last Friday’s action (table below), it’s clear SPBIO, was not part of the upside party.

Of course, we won’t know if it’s’ the downside leader until subsequent sessions.

In the meantime, the market positioning remains unchanged.

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

LABD-22-09:

Special Note:

This sector and leveraged inverse LABD are highly volatile. Character of the market can change at any time.

LABD may be exited without notice.

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71, 21.23, 21.65 Stop @ 19.41

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Update … Watch The Tape

Potential Danger, For The Upside

It’s still in the early session and gold GLD, is trading higher … for now.

This morning, once GLD started to post on the tape, a new potential up-thrust (reversal) target became apparent.

The reason to think GLD, upside may be short-lived, just after the open, biotech began declining in earnest … signaling potential overall weakness for the rest of the market(s).

No one wants to talk about this sector and what’s really going on.

We don’t know when it’s all going to let loose but the pressures are immense and they continue to build.

Back to gold.

The daily chart of GLD, is below with the area in question, highlighted.

Gold GLD, Daily

Price action must get above and stay above the resistance area. Otherwise, it’s an up-thrust (reversal).

Other Markets & Biotech

Meanwhile, the biotech sector (SPBIO), is the first to post new daily lows. At this juncture, all other major indicies are higher.

Once again, as shown below, the short position via LABD, has been increased (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

LABD-22-09:

Special Note:

This sector and leveraged inverse LABD are highly volatile. Character of the market can change at any time. LABD may be exited without notice.

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71, 21.23, 21.65*** Stop @ 19.41***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold, Set To Rally

But, How Far ?

The last update on gold (GLD), posted four trading days ago, (link here), said the following:

“If there’s going to be a break to the upside, this would be the place; otherwise, watch for continued GLD downside.”

From that update, GLD continued slightly lower, posted a new monthly low (yesterday) and got itself into Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

Now, in the pre-market (as of 8:41 a.m., EST), we see GLD, trading up approximately 2.1-points, or + 1.40%.

Let’s see where price action’s likely to go.

Gold (GLD), Daily

Spring set-ups have a tendency to go straight into an up-thrust as a repeating pattern.

The most likely point for an up-thrust, if GLD rallies from here, is shown below.

The up-thrust target is also a Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace level from the ‘Changing of Hands‘ high, set March 8th, this year.

If there is a rally, it’s potentially a temporary (but tradeable) upside event in an overall down market (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

Over the past few trading days, changes have been made as shown (not advice, not a recommendation)

TMF-22-01:

Discretionary exit @ 6.85***

Trade Closed

Gain on TMF-22-01: + 4.67%

LABD-22-09:

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71, 21.23*** Stop @ 18.69

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Relentless, Collapse …

Jerrimiah Babe, Calls It

In probably his best video update since he stared in early 2015, he lays out the details of what’s ahead.

Although not well versed in the markets (and he says so), he has enough experience, life-knowledge, to understand the current potential and likely outcome.

That is, ‘relentless collapse’.

Those of us who have been getting ready for years, know that we still aren’t ready. How can anyone be fully ready for a complete systems breakdown.

One ‘system’ that’s set for implosion and has been since before ‘The Speck’, is biotech.

Biotech: Cue The Implosion

It’s been an on again, off again, back on, and so on, with this index (SPBIO).

Every day now, sometimes multiple times a day, we see the effects of their ‘protection’. Wheels are in motion and we’re most likely just getting started … for decades to come.

Yesterday’s Fed announcement, may have (finally) provided the up-thrust and reversal needed to get this index in a sustained down move.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily Close

The daily chart shows the up-thrust test and reversal.

We’ll get into downside potential(s) in an upcoming post.

For now, the positioning remains unchanged (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

TMF-22-01:

Entry @ 7.166, Stop @ 6.77

LABD-22-09:

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71, Stop @ 18.69

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Reversal Bellwether

Is The ‘Collapse’ Back In Play?

When the market does not respond as expected, that means something else is happening.

Such may be the case for bonds.

Yesterday, we got this announcement during market hours.

Of course, the already hammered bond market (TLT), got hammed some more.

It’s what happened next, and what’s happening today, that’s important.

That is, the sell-off was quickly reversed (to the upside) with that upside continuing this session.

The bond supply is being absorbed.

So, what does that mean?

It’s possible, the bounce, melt-up, squeeze or whatever one wants to call it could be over. There may already be a ‘flight to safety’ if there’s such a thing these days.

But let’s not hypothesize on what could be happening. The market itself (price action), tells us.

Bonds TLT, Daily

At about mid-session, this is where we are.

We’re right at the downtrend line.

The attempt to mover lower (yesterday), has been rejected.

As a result of today’s new daily high, the stop on position TMF-22-01, has been moved up (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, we’re now between the downtrend and the ‘rejection’; something’s likely to break.

Summary

The S&P (SPY) just posted an up-thrust reversal early this session and is still moving lower as of this post.

Keep in mind, all of this is happening before any Fed announcement … as if the market has already decided.

A quick note on biotech, SPBIO.

Position size has been increased in SPBIO, leveraged inverse LABD, as shown below (not advice, not a recommendation).

This sector remains at The Danger Point®

If the bounce really is over, biotech is likely to get hit the hardest.

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

TMF-22-01:

Entry @ 7.166, Stop @ 6.77***

***, Indicates change

LABD-22-09***

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71***, Stop @ 18.69***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

After The Close …

Bonds, Gold, Biotech

Bonds:

Instead of upside follow-through, we had downside test and reversal.

Gold:

GLD, closes lower and is now down seven consecutive months … a record for the tracking ETF.

Biotech

Index SPBIO, has been attempting to move higher, with it posting into an up-thrust last week.

Today it couldn’t hold the upside; now looking like a nascent reversal.

Note: Position changes at the bottom of this update.

The test and reversal in bonds (TLT) is obvious and there’s no open position in GLD.

So, we’ll focus on biotech.

Biotech ($SPSIBI, SPBIO) Daily

The zoom area of the chart shows price action just can’t seem to get above resistance (blue line).

Successive attempts were made throughout today’s session to go higher, but it didn’t happen.

Getting in closer on the hourly chart, we see the apparent upside failure during the last hour of trading.

Biotech SPBIO, Hourly

There is no doubt where at The Danger Point®

Right about mid-session, a short position was opened via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation) as LABD-22-09.

Summary

Today’s expectation for bonds was a follow-through to the upside … it didn’t happen.

In response, the initial TMF-22-01, position was closed with the secondary remaining open (not advice, not a recommendation).

Meanwhile, biotech SPBIO, was having its own problems; that is, being in up-thrust condition and not being able to make a new daily high. i.e., The Danger Point®

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

TMF-22-01:

Entry @ 6.705, 7.166, Stop @ 6.68

Partial Exit @ 7.053***

***, Indicates change

LABD-22-09***

Entry @ 19.88***, Stop @ 18.94***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279