Category Archives: UNG

‘The Economy Is Strong’

September 5, 2023 By in Natural Gas, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, The Speck, UNG

… And Other Lies

It’s been a busy pre-market session; currently, 8:48 a.m., EST.

At yesterday’s evening open of the nat-gas futures (NGV23), it was decided to exit the UNG, position in the Tuesday pre-market, at the earliest possible (not advice, not a recommendation).

That exit was completed @ UNG 6.74

With that done, the focus tuned to the semiconductors.

Early this session (we’re still in the pre-market), the short position was increased via SOXS. Hard Stop remains at SOXS 8.97 (not advice, not a recommendation).

The ‘Strong Economy’ Backdrop

All of this positioning is taking place in the middle of a storm of propaganda.

It’s non-stop; every day, another pile of lies.

For just a hint of truth, check the links here and here.

U.S. food distributor stockpiles are dwindling rapidly (reference links above and more on that channel).

The big corporations are already getting ready for the next ‘We’re all in this together’, planned event as The Speck attempts to make its return.

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Positioned At The Extremes

September 2, 2023 By in 1929, 1987, Artificial Intelligence, Mass Psychosis, Natural Gas, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, UNG

‘Evidence Of A Struggle’

To minimize risk, you need to position at the psychological extreme.

That’s not necessarily the top or bottom of a move, but it could be.

At Opposite Ends

From a trading standpoint, this past week saw a lot of activity.

Trades entered, exited, some re-entered, some, not.

The net result was two positions in separate, non-correlated markets.

One was shorting the SOXX, via SOXS, the other, adding to longs in Natural Gas via UNG (not advice, not a recommendation).

Fake, Fraud & Thought Shaping

By far the main hysteria is in AI, and its cohort, the semiconductors, SOXX.

From my first trade way back in the spring of ’87, to now, I’ve never seen a mass psychosis mania, fueled by propaganda, lies and made-up numbers, like this.

One can only guess where or when the shoe will drop that starts the whole (mind-shaping) scheme unraveling.

Evidence Of A Struggle

When price action pushes above or below established resistance or support, it’s at The Danger Point®

When that happens, depending on the action itself, the risk of being wrong (on an opposing position) is lowest.

The SOXX may be there now.

Semiconductor SOXX, Hourly Chart

It’s clear, a battle’s going on between bulls and bears at resistance (blue line).

Just before, during, or just after a holiday week tend to be pivot points in the market.

Said many times on this site, the most famous of these was September 3rd, 1929, the Tuesday following the Labor Day Weekend.

That was the all-time high, just before the crash.

Positioning

There are two positions open, each with a tight stop (not advice, not a recommendation)

Long UNG; Hard Stop @ 6.93

Long SOXS (short SOXX): Hard Stop @ 8.97

Now, we wait.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The ‘Bag Holders’

August 25, 2023 By in Artificial Intelligence, Natural Gas, Positions, SOXX, UNG 1 Comment

‘We Need A New Story’

The mainstream has run out of hype; at least for now.

Their AI mania narrative and price action blew up yesterday.

The probability for a blow-up was identified ahead of time, here.

Who knows how many retail investors bought in, now, left holding the bag.

The more probable (overall market) outcome at this point, is sustained, persistent, downside … possibly for years if not decades (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, not every market is going to go straight down. Some, might actually go higher.

Natural Gas & The ‘Disruption’ Trade

One of those upside probabilities highlighted in this update was Nat-Gas.

From that update we have:

“If UNG, heads lower yet again, it could be the last straw for the weak bulls, causing them to close out.”

Nine trading days later, that’s exactly what happened.

The original chart of UNG, has been updated to show subsequent price action.

Natural Gas UNG, Daily

When price action penetrated support (lower blue line), it puts UNG at The Danger Point®

This is where the risk of being wrong for a long position is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

Taking the above into account, with downside risk potentially minimized, two entries were made during this session (currently, 1:21 p.m., EST).

One at UNG 6.64, and another larger entry at UNG 6.75.

An obvious Hard Stop is yesterday’s low of UNG 6.49, with a Soft Stop (trader discretion) at today’s low of UNG 6.63 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas … Where’s The Rally?

August 13, 2023 By in GLD, Gold & Silver, Natural Gas, UNG, ZeroHedge 3 Comments

Flush-Out The ‘Disruption’ Trade

About a month after this post on Nat-Gas, we had this on ZeroHedge:

‘It’s Become Dangerously Big’

From the article, looks like I wasn’t the only one figuring on some type of semi-permanent, supply hit.

If everybody’s ready for it … it won’t happen at all or not when it’s expected to happen.

If there’s going to be some type of blow-up and ‘the market’ knows about it, those not part of the club, need to be flushed out.

With that, let’s look at Nat-Gas (UNG), and see if we’re close to a bullish set-up.

Natural Gas UNG, Daily Candle

At this juncture, UNG has reversed below resistance and may be heading back up for a test.

Note the low volume of Friday’s action. There’s not much commitment at this level.

I’ve cut straight to the chase, showing the ‘target’ area where there could be a low-risk long entry if the market gets to that level (not advice not a recommendation).

If UNG, heads lower yet again, it could be the last straw for the weak bulls, causing them to close out.

For a prior example on how ‘targets’ work, reference here and here on gold, GLD.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas … The ‘Disruption’ Trade

May 8, 2023 By in GDXJ, JDST, Natural Gas, UNG, Van Metre, Wyckoff 5 Comments

Waiting For The Next Shoe

Nat-Gas, at multi-year lows but for how long?

We’re not in Kansas anymore and to expect things to operate ‘normally’, is a strategic error (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last update on Nat-Gas, specifically the futures, warned of new lows before a significant reversal:

“The Nat-Gas futures contract for May (NGK23), needs to post above 2.383 soon (in the next day or so), or the contract is at risk of pressing to new lows.”

Well, we’ve moved on from the May contract to the June contract and that contract indeed posted a new low this past Friday, the 5th.

Just Because …

Just because nat-gas is down, does not mean that it has to go up. That type of thinking is another error, typically called a ‘mind trap‘.

A better way to think about the situation, is to figure on a ‘disruption’ of some type, resulting in either a destruction of supply or excess demand over the usual conditions for the season (weather) at hand.

So, let’s see if the charts agree with that premise from a Wyckoff analysis standpoint.

Nat-Gas UNG, Weekly

Each significant downward thrust is becoming shorter in net distance traveled.

The horizontal blue lines tell the story. We’re nearing the end of the down move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, on to the daily. Price action penetrated support and has reversed … it’s in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

Natural Gas, UNG Daily

Of course, what happens next is the question.

Just as this post said we’d revisit it towards the summertime, showing there’s no Fed ‘pivot’, we can also propose there’s likely to be a severe disruption in the supply of nat-gas (not advice, not a recommendation).

Housekeeping & The Junior Miners, GDXJ

The expected lower open in the GDXJ did not happen.

So far, it’s been a narrow range day (as of 10:47 a.m., EST).

Price action is oscillating around unchanged and there appears to be no urgency to move either direction.

Standing on the sidelines for now (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas … New Lows ?

April 20, 2023 By in BOIL, LABD, SPBIO, UNG, Wyckoff 1 Comment

The Tape Is Always Right

The Nat-Gas futures contract for May (NGK23), needs to post above 2.383 soon (in the next day or so), or the contract is at risk of pressing to new lows.

We’ll look at the ETF proxy for nat-gas UNG, below, showing a Wyckoff up-thrust (downside reversal) condition.

As this post is being created (8:51 a.m., EST), the pre-market session shows the futures and UNG, oscillating about unchanged.

Natural Gas UNG, Daily

As with the upside reversal identified in the biotech sector (link here), we’re just reading the tape and acting accordingly (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, a trade was executed and closed in leveraged fund BOIL, with the following details:

BOIL Entry: 3.15

BOIL Exit: 3.45

Profit (Loss): 9.52%

The expectation was for a much larger profit.

However, price action is not behaving as if it’s in a strong up-trend. It’s even at risk of posting new lows as a result of the Up-Thrust condition noted above.

Meanwhile, biotech looks like it’s about ready to reverse.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas … Spike & Reversal

April 14, 2023 By in Food Supply, Livermore, Natural Gas, UNG, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Doing What It Does

Nat-Gas likes to spike at reversals.

In that sense, it’s similar to the silver futures market; it’s just what they do.

A spike does not guarantee reversal.

However, when we get one like today’s early morning (pre-market) session, it’s time to watch and position for what happens next (not advice, not a recommendation).

The futures chart link here, shows the early morning spike to 1.946. Now, we’re getting a recovery and test.

So, What’s Next?

The fundamentals say, nat-gas is lower on ‘over-supply’.

That may be true but here’s where it gets interesting; supply can be ‘destroyed‘ in an instant.

In the above article, the colloquial ‘ZeroHedge Guys’ with astute comments, shed light here and here.

Moving on to the chart of Nat-Gas we’re looking at UNG on a Fibonacci 8-Day, basis.

Natural Gas UNG, 8-Day

The chart shows a Wyckoff spring set-up in progress.

We’ve pushed below support.

Now, early in the session (11:20 a.m., EST), price action is inching its way back to test the resistance.

Positioning long at this juncture is potentially both strategic and tactical (not advice, not a recommendation).

Strategic in the sense, we’re operating in an environment of possible ‘shortage’ and ‘disruption’.

Tactical in the sense, nat-gas tends to reverse on a spike (either up or down).

Probabilities have put the odds to the upside.

Target Area(s)

If nat-gas gets to the target area shown, we can expect the requisite chaos to be part of the picture.

As Livermore frequently said, we’re looking at ‘what is’ and not what we want it to be.

If this is a medium to long-term move, we’re still in the very early stages.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Natural Gas First: Who’s Next ?

February 8, 2022 By in Corn, Food Supply, GDXJ, GLD, Gold Miners, Good Patriot, JDST, JDST-22-01, Positions, UNG

Is it Corn?

So, it begins.

This link to an article where lawmakers (using that term loosely) are attempting to limit the export of natural gas.

We’ve already discussed the likelihood of some type of corn or grain embargo as prices continue higher.

Now, we have a similar (limit export) event but in the energy sector.

Recall, the statement from that prior (corn) post:

“What we’re looking for here, is some kind of Jimmy Carter type stunt where corn exports are halted in the name of ‘national security’ or some such thing.”

And this, from the same post:

“Of course, if that happens, corn is likely to crash (like it did last time) if only temporarily.”

So, let’s take a look at what happened to natural gas (UNG), when our lawmaking geniuses proposed to limit exports.

Daily Chart Natural Gas, UNG:

So, when this type of announcement comes out, the market takes a major hit … just like it’s forecast to do if we get something similar in corn (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, if the overall long-term objective, is to wipe-out the food supply, wouldn’t you want some kind of dry run to make sure markets are going to respond as expected?

So, let’s try natural gas first, shall we?

Remember that with corn, it will (if it happens) be different.

Because of the elevated fertilizer prices, a forced lowering of the corn market may be all that’s needed to make sure very little-to-no corn gets planted … and Voila!

For a reminder on just what exactly we’re dealing with here, please reference this link.

Moving on to other markets, we have some housekeeping in the gold mining sector.

Junior Miners, GDXJ:

As stated in the pre-market update yesterday, the finger was on the sell trigger.

After the first hour of trade, it was obvious higher prices were in the offing.

Not willing to wait through a correction to a higher retrace level, the short position was closed-out (not advice, not a recommendation).

The table below summarizes the entire round-trip. It should be somewhat self-explanatory.

A hypothetical $10,000 was used as the starting amount. Any additions to the position used margin.

The end result as shown, approximately, +21%, gain.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Before The Open

November 3, 2020 By in Bonds, DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, JDST, Natural Gas, UNG, UUP, Wyckoff 1 Comment

As expected from the November 1st, update, gold pre-market shows a gap-higher open.   Trading is around 178.80 – 179.00 which is a little above the resistance area shown in the original chart.

After the first hour of trading, the plan is to provide an update to see if there’s still a possibility of a reversal at this juncture (not advice, not a recommendation).

Correspondingly, the mining sectors, GDX, GDXJ are up in pre-market with inverse DUST and JDST, down. 

However, the big hitter, NEM is right at a 50% retrace off the lows of October 28th.  This is a possible area to stall and potentially resume a downward (or sideways) trend.

Other market actions that may have significant impact on silver/gold, are the four-standard deviation in the bonds to the short side.

As Steven Van Metre indicates, none of us reading this (in our lifetimes) are likely to ever see a set-up like this again.  It’s an historic extreme.

Bonds are down in pre-market along with the dollar … using UUP as the proxy.

The dollar has bottomed and is now in position to rally; completely opposite the established consensus.

At least twice now, Van Metre has mentioned Wyckoff in his updates.  He appears to be well aware of the significance.

In other markets, a position was opened in nat-gas, UNG at the last session.  That position was closed in the pre-market session with a slight ding of -1.2% to the managed account.

Even with record cold hitting large portions of the country, nat-gas can’t seem to get going to the upside.  Now, with its current action there may be a probability of lower prices (or stagnant action) going into winter.

We are leaving nat-gas alone for now and focusing on the historic bond set up and the potential effects when it all unravels.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Before The Open

November 2, 2020 By in Corn, Gold & Silver, Natural Gas, UNG

Gold is set to open higher as expected.  Corn is set to open lower … not expected and nat-gas looks like it will test its trend-line.

The only position currently open is CORN. 

Lower CORN open in the works, crop report due at the upcoming close and price action hugging the lows. We’re at the danger point three days in a row; planning to exit CORN (not a recommendation, not advice).

Taking the markets on the watch list into account, the opportunity appears to be nat-gas, UNG.

If price action contacts the trend-line and begins to pull away, there is a potential confirmation and trade set-up.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.