Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Do we have a ‘one-off’ event or is the data point being repeated?
To help answer, this site’s been monitoring what should be one of the fastest selling (used) cars in the market, Toyota Camry.
Scanning the CarMax inventory of Camry’s has the same cars (with minor changes) still for sale, since August, at elevated prices no -less.
Seems to corroborate the link above and makes you wonder what’s (really) happening?
With that, let’s move on to the potential opportunity.
CarMax KMX, Weekly
There’s a lot going on in this chart.”
“What do you see?”
The wedge is obvious.
Maybe a little more subtle until it’s pointed out, huge volume churn since the breakdown during the week of September 30th, 2022.
That’s over two-years of potential distribution.
From a Wyckoff standpoint using his ‘Cause and Effect’ analogy, whatever’s about to happen to KMX, it’s setting itself up for a potential, sustained, long-duration move (not advice, not a recommendation).
Earnings Release
Earnings scheduled for December 19th, before the open.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The next trade (lower) could be in silver itself, or it could be in the Junior Miners, GDXJ, and/or SILJ, the sectors (ETFs) most susceptible (not advice, not a recommendation).
The last time silver had a major downswing was in early-to-late 2022; tracking fund SLV, declined about -35%, top-to-bottom.
During the same period, Junior Miners GDXJ, declined over -50%, so take your pick.
Silver SLV, closed out last week penetrating downside support and then moving (inching) back higher.
We should all know what that means. 🙂
Silver SLV, Weekly
Silver penetrates support and then retraces; Wyckoff ‘spring’ position (not advice, not a recommendation).
The 50% retrace area is shown. It will be interesting to see if SLV, gets that far.
Perhaps more interesting from a set-up standpoint, is what GDXJ, and SILJ, will be doing if and when that happens.
Positioning: SLV & Miners
The mining sector has been ‘out-of-favor’ since this update years ago.
Since that time and looking at the charts, the most dynamic (fastest action) trade opportunities, were to the downside.
There are no open positions in this sector at this time (not advice, not a recommendation).
Positioning: Biotech, XBI-24-01
Separately, as stated in this update, the short trade in biotech (via XBI) was brief.
It was stopped out with a loss of 0.15-pts (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
After the ‘test’, is that when the plug is pulled?
It’s the market’s job to frustrate (nearly) every single participant, bull or bear, into submission, into giving up and exiting just before the real move gets underway.
How many times have you heard (or experienced) the following:
“The market stopped me out, then took off for a huge gain … without me”.
Experience (i.e. many losses) is the ability to know when the trade (premise) is broken or just going through a test. 🙂
Looking at the SOXX, it’s a compelling (test) picture (not advice, not a recommendation).
Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly
Prior updates (here and here) have shown the similarities of the A.I. bubble to the dot-com bubble of the 2000s.
One of the events watched for, was the ‘trend break’.
As of today, the market is currently testing that break.
The fact we have a new weekly (retrace) high as well, presents a Fibonacci time correlation.
This week is Fibonacci 21-weeks from the all-time-high in the SOXX.
A downside reversal from this point may indeed tell us, ‘The plug has been pulled’ (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Actually, it’s the A.I. bubble, that’s in trouble (not advice, not a recommendation).
To start things off, here are a few (A.I.) notes from the article at this link:
‘significant near-term headwinds’
‘diminishing returns’
‘hit a proverbial brick wall’
‘not lived up to expectations’
Need we go on? Why not. 🙂
‘increasingly challenging’
‘massive costs’
‘might be a pipedream’
Well, I think that sets the stage.
Before getting to the chart, let’s just add this one item.
While A.I. appears ready for a complete implosion, ‘investors’ have rarely been so optimistic, link here.
Of course, from a Wyckoff standpoint, the chart below, has already told us what’s likely to happen next.
Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly Close
Price action’s (potentially) in a massive terminating wedge, three-years in the making.
Note, the SOXX is at the trend-line for the fourth time.
An old Wall Street adage, the source of which was lost long ago said, ‘when the trendline is challenged for the fourth time, there’s typically a break’ (not advice, not recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 