Real Estate Rout … Dead Ahead?

January 26, 2025 By in DIA, Dow 30, DRV, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, IYR, Nasdaq, QQQ, Real Estate, S&P, S&P 500, SPY 1 Comment

Break, Test … and … Pause

Of course, in the markets, no one knows for sure.

However, what we do know as shown below, real estate IYR, has formed a terminating wedge.

In addition, it’s broken down from that wedge and is now testing the underside.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

With the Dow, S&P, and QQQs, at or near all-time-highs, real estate’s a laggard; posting its all-time-high, years ago.

Last week was a narrow-range bar.

On a daily basis, price action attempted to move higher twice and has retreated (from that attempt) each time.

Then, The Fed

Let’s not forget we have a Fed meeting coming up on Tuesday and Wednesday, this week.

Popcorn at the ready.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A.I. Bubble and Bubbles, Past

January 25, 2025 By in 2000 - 2001, Artificial Intelligence, Positions, QQQ, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-03, SOXX, Wyckoff 2 Comments

Once The Trend Was Broken

During the internet bubble of the 2000s, after the trend break in the QQQs, price action immediately began its long (multi-year) descent.

Naturally, it would follow when comparing that bubble, with the A.I. bubble, as was done here, one would have thought once the trend is broken, down we go.

Not so, today.

Instead, we have depending on how it’s measured, at least ten-weeks (so far), testing of that break.

Is it all about to change? Are we at ‘tests’ end?

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close

The most recent update showing the ‘trend break’ as discussed above, is here.

The chart below, presents a possible ‘last gasp’ for the SOXX (not advice, not a recommendation).

From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, the market ‘by its own action’, has told us the axis line above, is important.

If the chart is correct and we’ve had a false breakout (Wyckoff Up-Thrust), the expectation is for downside follow-through (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Hugs The Line

January 24, 2025 By in CVNA, SOXX

Morbid Curiosity

Is Carvana the ‘Enron’ of our time?

Back in the day, it seemed like Enron was everywhere.

Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser, sponsored by Enron, remember that?

At this point, it’s somewhat of a morbid curiosity to see how this all plays out.

Carvana CVNA, Weekly

This week was a short-range bar when compared to the week before.

Upward momentum appears to be slowing.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

UAL & Secret ‘Plans’

January 23, 2025 By in AAL, Airlines, DAL, Daniela Cambone, Ed Dowd, LUV, Positions, UAL, UAL-25-01, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Was It ‘Manipulation?’

Looking at United Airlines (UAL), with the precise set-up, four-year wedge, measured move, the top, timed exactly at an earnings release, you have to ask yourself …

Was it all part of a (secret) plan?

Wyckoff Writes on Manipulation

Way back in 1910, Wyckoff wrote the following concerning manipulation (emphasis added, quote used with permission).

“Manipulators are giant traders, wearing seven-leagued boots. The trained ear can detect the steady ‘clump clump’ as they progress, and the footprints are recognized in the fluctuations and quantities of stock appearing on the tape.”

United Airlines UAL, Weekly

When looking at the chart, it all makes sense … it just took over four years to play out.

As the last update said, ‘what now?’

All three major (largest cap) airlines are currently (flat to) lower; DAL, UAL, LUV (11:02 a.m., EST).

American Airlines (AAL), lower as well; it’s down a whopping -10%, just today

What does that mean?

Here’s an interview with Ed Dowd, just posted.

All of the damage inflicted over the years, is not going to be wiped-out with the stroke of a pen (to borrow a comment).

With that, one of the hardest industries to make a profit even in good times, are the airlines. (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

United Airlines … Top & Reverse

January 22, 2025 By in Airlines, Positions, UAL, UAL-25-01

Then, The Earnings

Is United (UAL), about to hit an ‘air pocket’?

When we look at the earnings, it appears all is well, link here.

Of course, the article makes sure to tell us, UAL has ‘tripled’ in price; so, it has.

But what now?

Even as this post is being created (12:14 p.m., EST), UAL, is posting the makings of a decisive reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

United Airlines, UAL, Daily

There’s not much to say, there it is.

What’s not shown, today’s action is the top of a wedge measured move, going back to early 2021.

We’ll cover that later.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX Tops (again)

January 21, 2025 By in Positions, SOXS, SOXS-25-02, SOXX 1 Comment

Repeating Pattern

The SOXX, continues to test (or follow) the underside of a trendline break dating back to mid-November, last year.

That line is not shown on the chart (at left), but what is shown, is a repeating phenomenon; Wyckoff, Spring-To-Up-Thrust.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Carvana ‘Confluence’

January 20, 2025 By in CVNA, Hindenburg, KMX

Tale of Two Fibonacci’s

This update said to watch for a CVNA retrace to levels between 227 – 233.

Last Thrudsay’s action reached and slightly exceeded the target(s).

With all of that, we now have Carvana at a confluence of Fibonacci levels.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Note the corrective ‘a-b-c’ move to a Fibonacci 161.8%, projection.

That same corrective move is near the Fibonacci 61.8% retrace from the (recovery) high of 268.34, to the recent low 175.42, of January 3rd.

There’s so much ‘drama’ surrounding this equity that literally anything can happen.

Short interest (BigCharts) remains in the 10%, range; not moving appreciably in either direction for some time.

If the Hindenburg report is accurate, CVNA could vaporize at any time (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, that may not be the best use of CVNA’s (potential) woes.

Maybe a better opportunity is to think about what’s going to happen to all that inventory if things really go south.

How will that affect other competitors like CarMax?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Treasury ‘Rout’ At End?

January 19, 2025 By in Bonds, Interest Rates, TLT, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

What Does The ‘Market’ Say?

According to this link, the downside rout in U.S. Treasuries is coming to an end.

Real or fake? You make the call.

Let’s go to the bond market and see what it says.

Long Bonds, TLT, Daily

When looking at the chart, we see a potential upside breakout (blip) from the wedge.

From an experience standpoint, extremely narrow wedge patterns posting near or at the apex before breakout, rarely if ever, produce a lasting move (not advice, not a recommendation).

We could get more of the ‘blip’ higher. However, a ‘blip’ is not a directional move. 🙂

Jawboning The Market

Anyone dictating what the market will or won’t do or what it should do (in the opinion of your website host) is misguided, or inexperienced.

The market itself decides what it’s going to do.

As Wyckoff said a hundred years ago (1902, to be exact), the market is moving based on its ‘own forces’ that are not connected to valuations.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate, Odds in Your Favor

January 18, 2025 By in DRV, DRV-25-01, IYR, PLD, Positions, Real Estate, Wyckoff

Contact Points

The last update showed the possible (downside) reversal set-up for real estate sector, IYR.

This update shows the largest cap equity in that sector (source, TC2000), ProLogis, PLD, and its current position.

ProLogis, PLD, Weekly

We’ve had essentially sideways action for over two years; trading between (approx.) 90 – 130.

In the past three months, price action has established what looks to be a downtrend and possibly a trading channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note the relatively heavy (upside) volume from last week, the green bar.

In Wyckoff terms, that volume is potential ‘effort vs. reward’, or exhaustion if PLD, continues lower from here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … Dead at Resistance

January 17, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DRV, DRV-25-01, IYR, LABD, LABD-25-01, Real Estate, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Repeating Set-Up

Real estate (IYR) has pushed higher above resistance and stopped dead; currently trading in a very narrow range.

It wouldn’t be all that interesting if price action was not in a repeating set-up:

Wyckoff Spring-to-Up-Thrust

Click on the side bar under the same name to see all posts related to this set-up.

Note: A set-up does not guarantee anything.

It’s just a market observed phenomenon that may result in a directional move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Real Estate IYR, Daily

There it is:

This is what’s called The Danger Point®

The risk of being wrong on a short position is at its least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning (updates)

Biotech XBI is spending a lot of time hovering around support and not progressing downward (no matter all the Fibonacci correlations).

With that, LABD-25-01 was closed at slightly above break even (not advice, not a recommendation).

Real estate IYR was entered short early in the session via leveraged inverse DRV, as trade DRV-25-01. Stop for the trade is currently the session low. (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279