With that understood, we’ll present three potential scenarios for Moderna (MRNA) price action for the upcoming days, or week(s).
When we last left our chief cook and spike-protein injector, price action was in a downtrend but also in Wyckoff spring position; indicating at least a chance for upside.
As with the CarMax (KMX) analysis, still playing out with Scenario No. 2, and/or No. 3, at this link as the forecasted price action, we’ll show potential Scenario No. 1 – No. 3, for MRNA, below.
Moderna MRNA, Daily, Forecasted Action
Scenario No. 1
Upside wedge breakout
Scenario No. 2
Downside wedge breakout with no test
And now, the most probable, ‘If there’s a downside breakout.
From a short-dated options standpoint, Scenario No. 3, is the most desirable (not advice, not a recommendation).
If there’s a downside breakout with no test, there’s always the possibility at some point, there will be a test, which in turn completely wipes out any potential gain in the (put) trade; time would run out and the option expires.
Re-Visiting, Elder
Recall, in the example that Dr. Elder gave, he bought OEX Put Options at 3/8-ths, back in the day when the markets traded in fractions.
Three-eighths is 0.375, which gives a target value on which option to select (not advice, not a recommendation).
To get to that small of a fraction, the option’s either way out of the money, short on time, or both.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
With a potential right-side trend (and channel) contact confirmed; shown below at – 86% annualized, odds are now favorable for a Put strategy.
In addition to the technical factors discussed, listed at the bottom of this post are no fewer than 22-links to the current fundamental state of biotech and their ‘handiwork’.
The weekly chart of MRNA, has a Wyckoff Up-Thrust and a test, confirmed by the downside pivot.
Moderna MRNA, Weekly
Notice the reversal action took place at a very weak Fibonacci 23.6% retrace.
The two blue lines on the daily chart (below) are exactly parallel.
The grey lines are parallel to the blue lines and intended to show MRNA, exhibits a repeating (downtrend) pattern.
Moderna MRNA, Daily
The expanded version on the daily has support being penetrated (horizontal blue line) and then ‘spring’ action last Friday as a result.
Of course, it’s ‘what happens next’, that’s the question.
In a prefect scenario, price action would thrust lower for a day or several days and then come back up to test the underside of resistance.
Elder Option Strategy
This strategy is taken from Elder’s book ‘Come Into My Trading Room’, and seeks to use as short-dated options as possible.
Doing so, requires the discipline to wait sufficient amount of time for price action to get into position and for option time value to bleed-off.
Potential Upside
Since we’re already in spring position and price action moved off the lows on Friday, MRNA could continue the upside right back to, or past the downtrend line.
However, with massive (undeniable) fundamentals building buy the day, and MRNA being mentioned specifically in at least one link below, probabilities favor the downside.
Supporting Links For The Bearish Stance
Florida Surgeon General Warns Life-Threatening VAERS Reports Up 4,400 Percent Since COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout
US Says Government, Not Moderna, Should Face COVID-19 Vaccine Lawsuit
New Medical Codes For COVID Vaccination Status Raise Concerns Among Experts
Watch: Rand Paul Grills School Of Nursing Head On Student COVID Vaccine Mandate
US Navy Lifts COVID Vaccine Mandate For Sailor Deployment
Mainstream Media Continues To Push False ‘COVID Heart’ Narrative To Explain Excess Deaths
NFL Players’ Association Urged To Screen for Heart Issues Over Vaccine Side Effects
WHO Suddenly Shelves Plans For Second Phase Investigation Into Origins Of COVID-19: Report
Watch: CDC Director Suggests It Will Never Change Child-Masking Policy
Rand Paul Introduces Bill To Halt Funding For Hospitals Denying Care To The Unvaxxed
Welfare State Weakens… 30 Million Americans Are About To Lose ‘COVID’ Food Stamp Handouts
IMF Says World Needs To Prepare For The “Unthinkable” After COVID, War In Ukraine
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Intel’s a dog … and has been for a very long time.
How do we know that? The price action itself, tells us.
Looking at the weekly chart of INTC, overlaid with the SOXX (thin black line), it’s clear, things literally went south for INTC, right around April, of 2021.
Intel reversed while the sector, the SOXX continued higher.
It’s what happened next, that’s important.
Intel INTC, With SOXX, Weekly
Note how the SOXX has rebounded since mid-October last year while Intel has remained flat.
Even with all the market manipulation to keep the major indices trending higher, having the public thinking ‘the consumer is strong’, INTC has languished.
This lack of upward price action in a rising market, indicates significant weakness.
Has Intel reached a bottom? This is the ‘dip’, isn’t it?
As always, anything can happen and INTC, could launch higher from here. However, it’s not likely.
It’s a juggernaut and at the moment, heading lower.
All of which brings us to the set-up: Options trade to the short side.
Intel INTC, Daily
For a viable Put trade, at least two criteria need to be met (with downtrend already established) and those are: Option time bleed, and what’s called ‘price instability’ or a ‘test’.
The daily close of INTC, shows a prior set-up (‘Test’) and now, at the far right of the chart, forecasted action.
A possible time for the ‘test’ if it occurs would be this coming Wednesday as that makes it ‘Day 13’ from the high on February 3rd.
That day would also coincide with the Fed minutes being released at 2:00 p.m., EST.
Note: When Fibonacci time counts are involved, it was determined years ago (by my firm), when the U.S. market is closed for a holiday and the rest of the world markets are open, it can (and sometimes does) count as a Fibonacci trading day.
Therefore, with world markets open this Monday, and the U.S. closed, it may still count as a Fibonacci trading day.
That in turn, could make this Tuesday ‘Day 13’ (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
If there was any remaining hope for the economy, the next leg lower in bonds (with rates higher) should just about take care of it.
Of course, if one knows what’s likely to happen, then preparations can be made.
The breakdown in bonds is already underway and this morning’s pre-market action (as of 9:08 a.m., EST) is more of the same … down.
The daily chart of bond proxy TLT, shows the wedge and measured move. With that said, there’s no guarantee of bonds heading lower, just probabilities.
Also, if bonds go lower there’s nothing that says they can’t just keep going … with rates ever higher.
Bonds TLT, Daily
Of course, one does not have to sit idly by and watch their account(s) be decimated with persistent down moves.
Leveraged inverse bond fund TBT, has been around a long time; it’s a viable tool to either hedge positions or trade outright (not advice, not a recommendation).
Leveraged TLT, Inverse: TBT, Daily
Within the past two weeks, TBT, is up over +11%, which is quite respectable for a bond fund.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Newmont (NEM) price action’s working its way lower to a ‘free-fall’ area; shown below.
Depending on behavior if or when it gets to this area, there could be an acceptable set-up to execute an ‘Elder-type’ Put option (not advice, not a recommendation).
That Put strategy has already been discussed but for those who may be new, it’s basically a short-expiration, out-of-the-money Put for maximum (potential) gain.
A completely counter-intuitive approach to the standard method of long-dated entries, then ‘wait’ while the value burns down to nothing.
Newmont Mining NEM, Daily
The compressed chart has the big picture; Newmont’s all-time highs were reversed on April 18th, 2022.
It’s currently in the process of finding its long-term bottom which is possibly far away from current levels.
The next chart gets close in on the potential set-up.
If price action follows its current down-trend, NEM may reach the potential free-fall area late next week.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
What can’t be controlled is when the ‘broke’ part shows up.
We can, however, discern a potential inflection point … or, points.
In the case of Netflix (NFLX), that inflection appears to be happening now (not advice, not a recommendation).
Netflix NFLX, Weekly
Two weekly charts are shown.
The first has the terminating wedge, tentatively confirmed with last week’s new weekly low (below NFLX: 348.71).
The second chart shows the Fibonacci retrace to the 38.2% level; if there’s a reversal and the level holds, it indicates weakness and higher probability for continued downside action.
Note how the wide, high-volume bar of week ending 4/22/22, has been completely retraced.
This is what markets do; they tend to come back and test wide, high-volume areas.
In the case of NFLX, that test required about 40-weeks to accomplish.
Summary & Strategy
Price action itself will define the potential strategy (not advice, not a recommendation).
Based on where the overall markets closed on Friday, the expectation is for more downside action at the next open, then followed by a retrace that day, or the next.
If it happens, we’ll look at NFLX, on the daily chart for additional set-up clues.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Its current market capitalization is over ten-times that of General Motors (GM); a company that’s been in business, since 1908.
GM’s auto production numbers for 2022, were 66% higher (imagine that), than Tesla’s 1.37-million; provided, that we actually believe any of the data. 🙂
If we take Tesla’s market cap as of Friday’s close (654.7bln) and divide it by the closing price of 196.89, we get 3.33.
You can’t make this stuff up.
The TSLA market has ultra-high liquidity and is highly emotional (like the gold market). That liquidity lends itself to Fibonacci-based analysis.
We’ll get to the analysis but first, the options trade.
Tesla TSLA, Option Trade: 3-minute Chart
We’re trading the day of expiration 2/10, and the value is decaying rapidly. The entry of 0.50 was about where the option closed on the prior session.
Note, the entry was made on the way up … extremely difficult to stomach selling short, on an expiring position, as the price is rising.
Option was closed when it was obvious there was no more downside for the day. Since it was a 195.0 Put, it expired worthless at the end of the session.
Now, on to Fibonacci.
Tesla TSLA, Daily, with Fibonacci Projection(s)
The chart shows how precise the moves have conformed to Fibonacci.
We’ve included the “3.33”, as mentioned above; it will be interesting to see what happens at the next open.
After-hours activity was down – 2.31 pts, on 2,486,196 shares, according to BigCharts.
Depending on subsequent price action, the next update will address the Fibonacci downside projections.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Of all the major indices for today’s (Wednesday) session, biotech’s SPBIO, Leveraged Inverse Fund LABD, had one of, if not the largest gain @ +10.48%.
The last update identified two sectors to watch for short positioning: Real Estate IYR, and Biotech SPBIO; Short positioning via leveraged inverse funds DRV, and LABD, respectively (not advice, not a recommendation).
Since that post, DRV is up + 1.74%, and LABD is up + 8.58%, both measured on a close basis.
The ‘Big Reveal’
Remember: When price action turns south, that’s when the bad news comes out.
If this is the big reversal and biotech is the downside leader, unfortunately, that could mean a planned ‘reveal’ by the mainstream media.
Anyone going to alternative sites such as BitChute, ZeroHedge, Rumble, know full well what’s happening.
Maybe we’ll have another distraction like the 100-th (at last estimate) food processing plant fire or even something totally retro, like a balloon flying across … oh, wait. 🙂
Biotech SPBIO, Leveraged Inverse LABD
We’ll get straight to the point as prior updates have built a substantial case for a long term, significant reversal.
Recall, LABD is the leveraged inverse of SPBIO. The daily chart shows the current set-up.
This site does not provide investment advice.
With that said, one could infer from this prior post (at the bottom), a position in LABD had already been established and included a hard-stop.
That was indeed the case.
Next Steps
There’s no guarantee on how far or how long a directional move will go.
However, for SPBIO, one can observe since the February 2021, reversal from all-time highs, a sustained, directional move typically lasts 4 – 6 weeks.
The next update will show the best chart timeframe (multiple days) that resulted in capturing the majority of the directional moves since the February 2021-high.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The last update about our chief cook and bottle washer of gene ‘modification’ had this to say about price action.
“We’re about forty minutes into the session; Moderna (MRNA) has just confirmed the up-thrust reversal discussed in the last update“.
From that point Moderna (MRNA) declined for seven weeks for a total of around – 31.5%.
However, that’s not the most important part.
In that update, a trading channel was shown which at the time, was declining at – 93.7%, on an annualized basis.
Well, the channel is back.
Only this time, probabilities and price action have come together to set up for a potential sustained decline.
Moderna MRNA, Weekly
Above, we have a Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ and a test that has since turned lower.
Next, we have a series of repeating trend or channel lines.
Additional data has modified the downward slope to be declining at approximately – 90%, annualized.
From a fundamental standpoint, the data set is enormous on the events of the past three years.
At some point that data could provide a huge tailwind for downside action.
For now however, let’s stick with what price action is telling us and go to the Summary & Strategy
Summary & Strategy
The past week has identified two areas of position or trade execution and two areas for possible short-term options execution (not advice, not a recommendation):
Position or Trade: Real Estate IYR, and Biotech SPBIO
Options: Carmax KMX, and Moderna MRNA
As a reminder, most if not all trade analysis is for the short side (not advice, not a recommendation).
Final Thoughts
Since we have possibly the largest bull trap in market history with huge numbers of VIX Call options, the following week may be subdued by going modestly up, sideways or down, slowly.
With that said, options positioning (if any) could be slated for the week of 2/17/23.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 