Monthly Archives: November 2024

‘Breakaway Gaps’ … Downside

November 20, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX

A.I. Bubble Implosion, Update

Before we start, it’s important to note as far as the mainstream’s concerned, all is well, Nvidia continues to ‘dominate’, link here.

In that link, there’s no serious discussion on what price action is actually doing.

For that, we have this update. 🙂

Since the last post on the SOXX, it has broken the trendline to the downside.

If we model this bubble against bubbles past, specifically the 2000s internet bubble, then the SOXX has started its long, potentially sustained, decline (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, anything can happen; Nvidia has yet to report earnings (scheduled for after-the-bell, today).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

The blue arrows are breakaway gaps, indicating bearish conditions (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of this post (12:10 p.m., EST), the SOXX is attempting to ‘spring’ upward off the penetration of the new daily lows.

This is normal market behavior; it’s what happens after the close that will potentially be most important.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A Top for Tesla

November 19, 2024 By in TSLA Tags: , , , ,

Et Tu Tesla?

Everything seems to be happening (or about to happen) all at once.

Those in the know like Buffett, are selling (the market) and continuing to sell, link here.

Boots on the ground, warning of the unexpected things that (may) go bump in the night; the U.S. bond market, link here, time stamp: 12:00.

So, it may be with Tesla as well.

Anyone with two Lithium Ions rubbing together should know by now, the auto market is in ‘transition’.

Tesla TSLA, Weekly

Looking at the chart, it appears Tesla may be in ‘transition’ as well. 🙂

This update is not identifying a specific or potentially long-term reversal; only that TSLA, is at The Danger Point®.

It may be quite easy in a market sense, to initiate a directional change to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia Ruled by Fibonacci

November 18, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX

Pivots at Fibonacci Counts

Using the ‘Way-Back‘ machine, going to this post, we see NVDA, is being influenced by Fibonacci; more specifically, the weekly counts.

The week before last may have put in the (final) top in for Nvidia (not advice, not a recommendation).

That week was also Fibonacci ‘Week 21’, from the pivot high of ‘Week 89’, detailed in the link above.

Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

Note that upward thrust energy is declining.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘No Hurry’ for Lower Rates

November 17, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, TBT, TLT Tags: , , , ,

Of Course, Not

The Fed’s not about to tell anyone, what they (really) do, is follow the bond market.

When looking at ETF proxy for long bonds, TLT (below), one could infer, by late January, Fed rates may start going back up (not advice, not a recommendation).

Since we’ve entered a time where long secret (or obscured) truths are now revealed, it might just be, the public discovers (en masse) the emperor has no clothes.

Steve Poplar at ‘The Poplar Report’ has it figured out (time stamp 12:00, link here).

With that, let’s look at the bond market and see what it’s saying about itself.

Long Bonds, TLT, Weekly Close

Price action appears to be breaking down out of a wedge.

The potential?

Higher interest rates going into year-end (not advice, not a recommendation).

The result: fewer autos sold/financed, fewer homes sold/financed and possibly much less spending on Christmas.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … Slammed !!!

November 16, 2024 By in Dollar, Gold & Silver, Great Depression 2.0, SLV, UUP, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge, zsl Tags: , , 1 Comment

What’s Next?

We can see how the typical ‘investor’ would be angry; having believed the hype about silver’s imminent ‘hyperinflation’ launch.

Pontificating hype like, silver’s going to ‘catch up’ with gold, ‘go along for the ride’, ‘close the gap’, massive ‘physical demand’.

Well, this so–called ‘launch’ (so far), is not only not happening, but appears to be in a bearish divergence downside reversal … What???

Setting The Stage

From the recent high set on October 22-nd, to the close on Friday, Silver (SLV) is down -13.3%, a decent hit, but not quite a wipe-out, yet.

Putting that brief opportunity in perspective, during the same period 2X Inverse Fund ZSL, is up over 31.5%.

For a clue on what might be coming next, we’ll go to this anecdote, link here.

The so-called ‘environmentalists’ don’t even believe their own hype.

Not only that, if we’re already in an economic collapse, then silver, an industrial metal, is subject to the same forces.

Pulling Back The Curtain

If or when the new administration takes office (January 20th, is a long way away), we can expect a lot of truth (but not all of it) to come out.

That’s already starting, with the blow-up in biotech.

Random Thought: Wasn’t the dollar supposed to collapse by now? But, I digress.

Lets’ get back to silver (SLV), and what the price action is telling us.

Silver SLV, Weekly

With the situation below, what’s the most likely event for the coming week?

We’ve had four down-weeks in a row. Price action’s at the wedge boundary (blue line) and minor support (black dashed line).

Last week was a narrow range bar with less overall volume than the week prior.

Therefore, the most likely event, is an attempt to retrace the prior four weeks of down action (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … BOOM !!!

November 15, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, XBI 25 Comments

Another Ruh, Roh

It’s literally been years of planning and waiting, for biotech to (finally) be exposed.

Going way back (over four years) in a cutting, but accurate post on the differences between followers and leaders, was this.

So, is now the time to short?

Is it already too late?

The chart itself will give clues to a possible answer.

Biotech XBI, Weekly

Those familiar with (typical) market action know, after it’s all said and done, there is a possibility the wide price bar will be tested (retraced by some amount).

At some point, the XBI is likely to find (temporary) support.

When it does, we’ll have some indication of retrace/testing potential (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The A.I. Bubble’s in Trouble

November 14, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: , , ,

Ruh, Roh, Scooby

Well, Scooby … looks like we’re in trouble, now.

Actually, it’s the A.I. bubble, that’s in trouble (not advice, not a recommendation).

To start things off, here are a few (A.I.) notes from the article at this link:

‘significant near-term headwinds’

‘diminishing returns’

‘hit a proverbial brick wall’

‘not lived up to expectations’

Need we go on? Why not. 🙂

‘increasingly challenging’

‘massive costs’

‘might be a pipedream’

Well, I think that sets the stage.

Before getting to the chart, let’s just add this one item.

While A.I. appears ready for a complete implosion, ‘investors’ have rarely been so optimistic, link here.

Of course, from a Wyckoff standpoint, the chart below, has already told us what’s likely to happen next.

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly Close

Price action’s (potentially) in a massive terminating wedge, three-years in the making.

Note, the SOXX is at the trend-line for the fourth time.

An old Wall Street adage, the source of which was lost long ago said, ‘when the trendline is challenged for the fourth time, there’s typically a break’ (not advice, not recommendation).

Let’s see if that happens now.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX Breakdown … Imminent

November 13, 2024 By in 2000 - 2001, Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, Semiconductors, South Sea Bubble, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX

The Path, of Bubbles Past

We’re getting very close to the SOXX, trend break discussed in this update.

If that’s the case and there’s a breakdown, the SOXX, joins the list of past manias and market bubbles (not advice, not a recommendation).

Other markets are hovering near all-time highs, giving the (false) impression, all is well.

Updated In Real-Time

Those monitoring this site have watched in real-time, how this market was selected for (short) positioning and when it was selected.

The only thing not discussed, was the management decision to maintain the position through the ‘election’ blip which at this time, has been fully retraced and more.

It’s a failed (up) move.

Nothing gets the Street’s attention more than a failed breakout or breakdown. The opposing side is trapped (not advice, not a recommendation).

Anything Can Happen

As David Weis used to say, ‘anything can happen’.

There has been no trend break, yet.

As of this post (10:50 a.m., EST), the SOXX, is hovering at support, threatening to break lower.

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

This Time … It’s Biotech

November 12, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, LABD, MRNA, PFE, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI Tags: ,

Another Reversal

One by one, each sector appears to be topping or reversing.

This time, it’s biotech.

Analysis (and action) over the past year has been on again, off again and now, appears to be back on again.

However, this time we have (as we’ll see below) a near perfect Fibonacci correlation.

Biotech Sector Index SPBIO, Daily

First, the big picture.

The corrective retrace that started way back in late October, of last year.

Next, we’ll get in closer to show the exactness of the Fibonacci levels.

It hardly ever works out this perfectly, but there it is.

Change Horses?

It’s no secret, the focus of trading action on this site since mid-October, has been to short semiconductors, potentially the largest bubble (A.I.) in world history (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, biotech may get its comeuppance as well with information like this, this and this hitting the mainstream.

The decision to take action or not, remains open (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The SOXX, Has Spoken

November 11, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Great Depression 2.0, Livermore, Prechter, Semiconductors, South Sea Bubble, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX

Anyone Listening?

For the vast majority, the answer is, ‘probably not’.

For the tiny fraction monitoring these updates, we should be getting the uneasy feeling, the (major) pivot downward in the SOXX, may have just started (not advice, not a recommendation).

Painstaking Detail

Over the past several months, presented on this site, the assessment that A.I., ‘artificial intelligence’, is just another mania in a long line of manias, going way back to the South Sea Bubble of the 1700s; reference posts or links here, here, and here.

The trick is, and has been, what to do?

One Man’s Approach

If I had to summarize my approach to the current situation, it would be to model Mr. Partridge (a.k.a. ‘Turkey’) from the book, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

That is, get into position, minimize transactions, stay there until the market says otherwise (not advice, not a recommendation).

That’s what’s being done; trade labeled: SOXS-24-20.

For additional reference, click on that number in the sidebar to see all related posts.

Election Reaction Complete

Based on SOXX, price action itself, it’s possible the upward blip from last Tuesday’s events has run its course.

If that’s true, we can get back to the (potential) implosion of the sector (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of this post (11:41 a.m., EST) the SOXX, has retraced nearly every bit of last week’s up-move.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279