Monthly Archives: April 2025

Bond Breakdown … Part 2

April 20, 2025 By in Bonds, David Weis, Ed Dowd, Greg Hunter, Interest Rates, Prechter, TLT, Wyckoff

Largest Downside Thrust … Ever

In the past few weeks, it seems like the markets have been whacked with a lot of, ‘the largest, ever’.

Trading in bonds, specifically TLT, is no exception.

While the media and pundits alike, deflect with ‘who’s doing the selling’ (hint: it’s not important), we’re going to look at the harder question of ‘what does it mean?’

Kick-Off, or Capitulation

Borrowing from research and writings of Wyckoff, Weis, and Prechter, when we get such a huge thrust downward (chart below), it’s typically one of two events:

A massive kick-off to much lower prices or a capitulation that washes-out the weak hands.

A bond upside reversal (rates lower) is a common sign of nearing or active economic downturn (not advice, not a recommendation).

In this interview with Greg Hunter, Ed Dowd covers the topic … the expectation for the reversal. However, that interview, was before the massive thrust lower.

Long Bond Proxy, TLT, Weekly

For years, it’s been one failed upside (reversal) after another.

Is this time, different?

The right side (magenta arrows) shows unprecedented thrust and volume.

So far, there has been a weak recovery to 38.2%, retrace of the recent down-move.

If that retrace level holds, with bonds continuing lower (rates higher), it does not bode well for the ‘capitulation’ narrative.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Breakdown … Part 1

April 19, 2025 By in Bonds, Goldman, TLT, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

The Big Picture

If things don’t change soon, the wheels have come off the bond market (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this point, it’s common knowledge the (U.S. Treasury) bull market of forty-years, ended in March of 2020.

It’s been nothing but rates ratcheting higher, ever since.

Recession Reversal … Where?

However, a strange thing happened on the way to the anticipated bond reversal … typically, a long-time indicator of an impending recession.

Just weeks ago, during the market meltdown with the largest trading volume ever recorded, bonds did not respond as expected.

The Blip

During that wipe-out, bonds (TLT) blipped higher into a false breakout, a Wyckoff Up-Thrust, and have since collapsed on the largest weekly downside (thrust) energy and volume ever seen.

Next update, the charts.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Curve Fitting’ Biotech … Part 2

April 18, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-08, Positions, SPBIO, XBI

Back To The Daily

Yesterday, the 3-Day chart was the best fit for biotech, XBI.

After Thursday’s action was complete, now the daily looks better.

Either way, we’ve got a tight stop (nearly hit, yesterday), and a trendline; decisive violation of either one, indicates an exit of (short biotech) LABD-25-08 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

There’s so much going on with this chart.

We’re at the point where the downtrend either continues, or morphs into a different scenario.

Even as this post was created (late Thursday), the after-hours session continues slightly lower for XBI; an encouraging sign, if short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Curve Fitting’ Biotech … Part 1

April 17, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-08, Positions, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, The Speck, ZeroHedge

Fibonacci, First

We’re letting the market decide what support/resistance, trendlines, and Fibonacci levels are significant.

We’ll even make an attempt to pick the timeframe(s) that best describes current action.

There’s a lot going on in a market sense, as well as ‘behind the scenes’ with revelations like this, and this, and this.

With that said, we’re looking at the 3-Day chart and Fibonacci levels.

Biotech XBI, 3-Day

The 3-Day is being used; it best shows current trending action (planned for next update).

The XBI, has near perfect (Fibonacci) symmetry.

Price action has made its way back to the 23.6%, level, and is hesitating.

Watching the action in real time, XBI gives the sense it does not know quite what to do … is it in a pause, gathering steam to move higher, or was the massive squeeze, on Wednesday, the 9th, all there was?

Positioning

As stated in the earlier update, XBI action on the 15th, put it at The Danger Point®; the location where risk was least for a short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s been slow going since then (ratcheting lower) but the one thing XBI, is not doing … is moving significantly higher.

More trade discussion, stop levels, link here (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

After The Squeeze

April 16, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-08, Positions, SPBIO, XBI 1 Comment

Biotech’s, Tale of Two Channels

What happens after the squeeze?

If it really was a squeeze, then demand evaporates, and prices (tend to) collapse (not advice, not a recommendation).

In the case of biotech, not only did we have a potential squeeze, two separate trading channels appear to be in effect.

Biotech, SPBIO, Daily

Both channels have contact points, Fibonacci 5 Days apart.

The more aggressive channel (grey dashed lines) has yet to be fully confirmed.

At this point, it’s essentially one contact on the right side.

Positioning

Remaining short this sector with LABD-25-08.

The stop has been moved (up on LABD) down to the XBI high, at XBI 76.24; effectively 10.24 on LABD, (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … The Next Leg (Down)

April 15, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-08, Positions, SPBIO, XBI, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

A-B-C, Correction

The market hits just keep coming for biotech.

First, it was this (RFK Jr., nominated, then confirmed), then it was this, and now, the latest is this.

While the financial press toys with the idea ‘the worst is over‘, (which might be true), with biotech, price action itself says it may be preparing for its next leg … lower.

Biotech XBI, Hourly

We’re drilling down to the hourly; it shows (as of 12:24 p.m., EST) a Fibonacci a-b-c, corrective retrace.

Wave ‘a’, was the massive short squeeze.

Wave ‘b’ was a test of the lows; then on to wave ‘c’, the same (net) distance as wave ‘a’, making it a 1:1 (potentially complete) corrective move.

Also note the ‘alternation’.

Wave ‘a’, was essentially straight up. Then, wave ‘c’ alternates and is a labored slow process, ratcheting higher.

We’re at The Danger Point®, where the risk of a short position is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Currently short, Trade: LABD-25-08, with stop at the LABD, session low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bear Market = Wealth Transfer

April 14, 2025 By in 1987, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-09, LABD, LABD-25-06, Positions, SILJ, SLV, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Uneducated Economist Tags: , , , 1 Comment

The ‘Extraction’ Process

Bear markets are not (always) prices going straight down, a la 1987.

Bear markets are ‘price destruction’; a series of ups and downs that effectively drain (whipsaw) the typical market account.

The last two weeks have seen record breaking extremes; the latest being this update, indicating the market posted the largest volume ever recorded.

Dodging Bullets

A case in point, this site’s narrow miss on having a huge gain (LABD-25-06, short biotech) being completely obliterated in last week’s largest short squeeze, ever.

It’s (almost) a ‘no-brainer’, this type of market behavior is not bullish (not advice, not a recommendation).

Then, The Propaganda

If it’s not dodging bullets, it’s sifting through the propaganda, half-truths, and outright lies.

The latest of these, (could be) ‘China dumping dollars’ and other ‘collapse’ narratives.

There’s volatility for sure. That’s what bear markets are about. However, this link might help mitigate the hysteria around the ‘It’s all blowing up’ narrative (not advice, not a recommendation).

In the above link, how it really works, time stamp: 17:58

So, here we are. What’s next?

Gold & Silver, Update

Even though both gold (GLD), and silver (SLV), are trading lower as of this post (12:52 p.m., EST), the Junior Miners GDXJ, posted a new daily high, thus, short JDST-25-09, was exited (not advice, not a recommendation).

Today’s activity does point to a new potential (developing) set-up, this time, silver miners SILJ.

Silver Miners SILJ, Daily

The set-up (spring-to-up-thrust) may develop from here, or it could diffuse into chaos.

It remains a possibility, until price action itself says, ‘no’.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

April 13, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, JDST, JDST-25-09, Positions, SLV

Gold & Silver, Update

We’re about two hours into the overnight session.

Gold (GCM25) is holding steady with a marginal decline.

Silver (SIK25) has posted a characteristic opening ‘spike’ reversal (5-minute bar), threatening to move lower.

At this juncture, the important part, is what’s not happening.

That is, neither metal has had a (significant) gap-higher open; they are not continuing their unabated advances.

For silver, we’re going to update the SLV, ETF, chart.

Silver SLV, Daily

As of this post, the (futures equivalent) ETF close of last Friday (29.19), is holding.

Trading is still at the 61.8%, Fibonacci retrace.

From a positioning standpoint, this sector (precious metals) is already held short via the Junior’s leveraged inverse JDST (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold’s Breathless Break … Higher

April 12, 2025 By in David Weis, Dr. Elder, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-09, Positions, SLV, ZeroHedge Tags: , , ,

Was Friday, The Last Gasp?

Another market, stretched to the extreme.

Will gold (GLD) pause or even reverse?

To answer that question, or at least look at the probabilities, let’s step away from the breathless, me-too herd, and see what’s really going on.

Silver, One Year Later

Before we get to what the crowd’s doing now, as a reminder, last year at this time (the crowd said), silver was supposed to be launching into a hyperinflationary breakout.

Remember that? Well, it didn’t happen. 🙂

This site posted for months, price action itself (SLV) indicated the probabilities were low for a sustained breakout, starting with this link.

However, there are times when the masses are correct. Is this one of those times?

Let’s take a look.

First, The Hysteria

To get a gage on what’s going on, we have a sample of the current mind-set, listed below.

‘Sell America’ Trade Sparks Gold-Rush, Dollar Crush As US Bond Yields Surge Most In 43 Years, link here.

Gold Euphoria, Bond Mayhem, Dollar Disgrace, link here.

The Asymmetric Gold Trade, link here.

Markets Live: Gold & Bitcoin Soar As ‘Sell America’ Trade Escalates, link here.

Citi’s Former Global Strat Head: Gold More Room To Run, link here.

Futures Flat, Gold Soars, Dollar Crashes After China Hikes US Tariffs To 125%, link here.

Gold Hits Record High As Dollar Dumps; Stocks & Commodities Remain ‘Tariff-ied’, link here.

Now, Reality, The Price Action

As with silver (SLV), we’re going to look at the characteristics of the gold (GLD) market to determine what’s likely to happen next.

Gold GLD, Daily Close

As David Weis used to say: “What do you see?”

The lower panel is Elder’s ‘Force Index’.

What we can see is that GLD, has met the characteristics, the set-up, that in the past resulted in a reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Hysteria on Steroids

Could gold go even higher from here?

Absolutely. Anything can happen.

When looking at the situation rationally, is this the spot where price action could stall, or even reverse?

As with silver, the price action itself says, conditions are in place for that potential (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners … In … Mid … Air

April 11, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-09, Positions, SLV

Exhaustion Gap?

For Junior Miners GDXJ, it’s either a sustained breakout higher, or an exhaustion gap; years in the making.

As can be seen in the chart, we’re leaning towards exhaustion (not advice, not a recommendation).

Either way, the situation (as of 11:15 a.m., EST) for both bulls and bears, is at The Danger Point®

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

We’re in mid-air.

The MACD, itself says, from a momentum standpoint, the current position is weak.

From a positioning standpoint, there have been several interations to short this sector.

As can be seen in the side bar, another short, JDST-25-09, is now open (not advice, not a recommendation).

Depending on price action, more updates to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279