Monthly Archives: August 2025

Sunday Night Futures

August 31, 2025 By in David Weis, Gold & Silver, NVDA, S&P, S&P 500, SPY

All Quiet, on Labor Day Weekend

Gold, silver, and the S&P are essentially unchanged (as of 6:44 p.m., EST).

Although it appears to be a quiet weekend, we should at least take note of the terminating wedge pattern in the S&P.

The S&P is probably the most computer controlled, most manipulated, most algorithmed (if that’s a word) market in the world.

From a personal standpoint, I do not trade it and have not for over 15-years.

There are better ways to engage and not volunteer oneself to get whacked every day by a mass of computer algorithms (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, we’ll look at it anyway. 🙂

S&P 500, SPY, Daily (segment)

We’re oscillating into a wedge pattern. A wedge typically occurs at the end of a move, whether it be up or down.

With the Nvidia earnings release out of the way, the tone of the overall market may have changed.

We’ll see if that’s true in the coming week.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Car Market Implosion

August 30, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-12, KMX, Livermore, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust

Hit on Both Sides

From a $100,000 Jeep Grand Wagoneer to no-bids on used cars at auction, the car market’s getting hit from both sides.

While Carvana rival CarMax, reached all-time highs long ago, now down -60.34%, for whatever reason, Carvana remains a ‘mystery’.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The horizontal line is the prior all-time high (376.83), set way back on August 10th, of 2021.

Up-thrust close high, to test close high, Fibonacci 21-Days.

From August 20th low, to test print high (Friday), Fibonacci 8-Days, putting CVNA, at 61.8%, retrace (not shown).

Positioning

Friday’s new daily low was the signal to go short. However, that short was not entered immediately.

Instead, we wait. The objective is to minimize the risk as much as possible.

Late in the session, 3:57 p.m., EST, short opened at 371.6412, with stop at the session high (378.54), for total ‘risk’ of 6.90-pts (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Famous ‘Reversal’

August 29, 2025 By in 1929, Biotech, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Positions, SPBIO, XBI, XBI-25-03

Back in The Day

So, here we are nearly on the eve of the most significant reversal, ever:

September 3rd, 1929

That is, maybe, until now.

Today’s downside action may turn out to be just a blip; much ado about nothing.

Or it could be the harbinger of a top. Maybe the top (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech sector XBI, appears to be losing steam while at the same time, being in up-thrust (potential false breakout) condition.

As of this post (12:10 p.m., EST), XBI is down -0.63%, and has posted a new daily low. Short position XBI-25-03, remains active (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll discuss this index and others over the long weekend.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

VIX Compressed … Record Debt

August 28, 2025 By in NVDA, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Waiting for The Break

The question (always) is:

‘How long can this last?’

From a comment on this post, to this from ZeroHedge, now this from MarketWatch, it’s not too much of a stretch to say that things are … well, ‘stretched’.

Today is ‘Day 13’, from the last Nvidia all-time high; let’s look and see if we might get another all-time high.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

We’re just a few minutes before the open.

We see the ‘spring’ set-up that’s been in effect over the past six trading days.

Will this spring lead to an up-thrust? Potentially the top?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … It’s Not a Bull Market

August 27, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Financial Sector, Positions, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, XBI, XBI-25-03, XLF, XLF-25-06

The Big Picture

Each market session provides another data point, bull, bear, or congestion.

Yesterday’s position in XLF, was stopped out the same day with a minuscule loss.

That trade was an excellent example of operating at the market’s edge and maintaining discipline.

Another data point.

However, one market not making new highs, or threatening the current short position (yet), was biotech, XBI; short trade XBI-25-03.

So, let’s take a look at what’s really going on.

Biotech Sector SPBIO, Daily Close

We’re far away from all-time highs.

The Fibonacci retracements are shown.

At this point, we’re oscillating around the 23.6%, and in up-thrust condition.

The second chart zooms-in on the set-up.

Set-ups don’t guarantee anything.

They just mean the market has reached a point where risk could be at a minimum.

Bull or Bear

With the SPBIO (XBI as the proxy), we either have a breakout above resistance or an up-thrust as previously mentioned.

Until the market proves otherwise by making new daily highs, the condition continues to be traded as a potential (significant) downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Financials … Feeling Puny

August 26, 2025 By in David Weis, Financial Sector, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XLF, XLF-25-06 1 Comment

At The Edge

The last update on Financial Sector, XLF, said it was in potential up-thrust (false breakout) condition.

Monday’s action was slightly down and today; we have a new daily low.

In addition, as we’ll see in the chart, all of this action is taking place below established resistance.

Financial Sector XLF, Daily

We’re at the ‘edge of the lake’, as David Weis used to call it. This is where the risk of being wrong is least.

Since the market’s posted a new daily low, risk on a short position is well defined, i.e. yesterday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Currently short this sector as XLF-25-06, with stop in the vicinity of XLF 53.58. After the close of this session, the stop (if not exceeded) will be moved lower to the high of today’s session (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Making (position) Adjustments

August 25, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DAL, DAL-25-03, Positions, SOXX, SOXX-25-12, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 4 Comments

SOXX Closed, DAL Closed XBI, Open

What we’re looking for from a short-side perspective, is ‘ease-of-movement’, downward.

Today, only one sector that’s currently being followed exhibited downside ease: Biotech, XBI.

To recap the situation with XBI, were in Wyckoff up-thrust position, first discussed here, then here and here.

Positioning

As stated in the header, SOXX-25-12, DAL-25-03, have been closed.

Biotech (short) XBI-25-03, opened with a stop at the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

August 24, 2025 By in BAC, Federal Reserve, Financial Sector, Interest Rates, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XLF 1 Comment

Bank of America & XLF

It’s no secret, Warren Buffet has been selling BAC, shares for some time; more recently, here.

The hard part is, how does one map that to price action?

Or does his selling have any material effect.

From a Wyckoff standpoint, we put that information in the background.

It’s there, we’re aware of it, but the focus is on price action itself.

So, let’s take a look.

BAC is a heavy weighting the in financial sector, with index tracking fund XLF, as a good vehicle for analysis.

That ETF just printed an all-time high this past Friday.

Financials XLF, Daily

Friday’s Fed announcement could be a significant infection.

Of course, the media is all aboard with a September cut, providing endless opinions on how to trade something that has not even happened.

What we’re looking for on this site, is some evidence of a reversal. We’re looking to see if price action stalls in not only the XLF, but the other major sectors as well.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Delta’s at The Top

August 23, 2025 By in Airlines, DAL, DAL-25-03, Ed Dowd, Federal Reserve, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Interest Rates, Positions, Prechter, Semiconductors, SOXX Tags: , , , , 4 Comments

Apex, Terminating Wedge

Was the Fed speech a turning point?

Remember, markets typically move in the opposite direction first after the Fed, then resume their main trend.

On Friday, markets were generally higher on interest rate hopes. It’s called ‘hope’, as the Fed’s not actually done anything.

Let’s word that more accurately. The bond market has not (yet) told the Fed to lower rates. When it does (if it does), they will follow and present their case as if they are leading the market.

Decades ago, Robert Prechter Jr., in a research paper, proved this point. More recently, Ed Dowd repeats the fact, link here (time stamp: 37:48).

Markets were higher, including the SOXX, covered here, and in this update, airline sector Delta (DAL).

Delta Airlines, DAL, Daily

If there’s any one chart showing why this site primarily works the short side, this is it.

The last major move was an impulse downward, taking less than three-months.

The corrective move against the trend, has so far been nearly five months in choppy overlapping action.

DAL, finished on Friday at the Fibonacci 78.6%, retrace level (not shown). Unless the market decides otherwise, we’re in a terminating wedge.

Currently short DAL, as DAL-25-03, with stop just above Friday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Weekend Wait

Now, the worrying starts … we can almost write the mainstream media script for the next few days.

Why will the Fed need to lower rates? Is unemployment going to continue higher? What about all the mass layoffs? How will the consumer be affected … and on and on.

As a reminder, ‘alternate’ (real) unemployment numbers are here. We’re already at 25%, Depression era levels.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Will The SOXX, Unravel?

August 22, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, 1987, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, Positions, Richie Naso, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-12, SPBIO, XBI, XBI-25-02 3 Comments

Right Out of Naso’s Playbook

‘Think like a criminal’, is one piece of advice from trading legend Richie Naso.

He also describes the algorithms as not caring about profit or loss, but ‘liquidity’ and ‘volatility’.

This morning’s session had plenty of both.

Looking at SOXX price action, launching higher on the Fed speech, it’s clear what the algorithms were attempting.

That is, hit the stops hiding at ‘technical areas’, as Naso calls them.

Semiconductors SOXX, Hourly

Price action went to where stops were hiding or where the inexperienced traders panicked.

Under such conditions, what’s the appropriate action?

Sell, or sell short (not advice, not a recommendation).

From this site’s perspective that’s exactly what happened.

Currently short the SOXX, as trade SOXX-25-12, with the stop at (or to be) the session high.

Which One to Pick?

As the last update said, the stop on biotech XBI-25-02, was at the August 18th high. Obviously that position was stopped out.

The question is, why not re-enter again short?

The answer: XBI made new daily highs where the SOXX did not. SOXX did not print above its high set on August 14th.

Therefore, at this juncture, SOXX is posting more relative weakness than XBI.

The market itself directs the trading action.

Revisiting August 1987

One last thought: August 25th, 1987, was the date of the all-time highs back then. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279