Author Archives: thedangerpoint

Never More Fragile, as Now

June 26, 2021 By in Benavidez, Biotech, Flash Crash 2010, IBB, Jerimiah Babe, LABD, SPBIO, Sydney Watson, ZeroHedge 3 Comments

Stretched, Stretched, Stretched

Slightest Dip, Cascading Effect

The last update had what some might consider a hyperbolic statement:

” … a market break anywhere from 20% to 50% (in our view) can happen at any moment.”

Less than an hour after that post, we had this from ZeroHedge.

” …in other words, stocks may be at a record high, but they have also never been more fragile and more sensitive to even a modest drop.”

Of course, nobody’s going to come out and publicly say we could get a ‘disconnect’ that results in a 20% drop or more, overnight.

Remember the Flash Crash of 2010?

In the entire history of the market, that’s never happened before, either.

Biotech Backdrop:

We’ve got empirical and anecdotal evidence pointing to the real objective of the ‘experiment’; now, we’re fortunate enough to have a data analyst doing what the medical establishment used to do.

That is, maintain and present the data.

The analyst at this link, is parsing the government database of adverse reactions. That analysis can be viewed here.

Reviewing the data solidifies the fundamental case even more for biotech implosion (taking down the broad market as well).

Mr. Benavidez estimates: 100,000 – 200,000 already dead in the U.S.

Let’s not forget; nearly half of the states have approved ‘liquefaction‘ of the deceased to be used as ‘fertilizer’. These are facts.

Seems like everything’s well planned … far in advance of current events.

Biotech Technical:

Since the SPBIO, index does not provide volume data, we’ve done a modification.

The SPBIO, weekly chart is below but it’s inverted. The weekly Force Index of leveraged inverse fund LABD, has been added.

On a closing basis, SPBIO (inverted) has penetrated just below support. It’s done so on significantly divergent energy.

Drilling down to the daily, it’s a similar picture; except we see the axis line (now support) more clearly.

Summary:

With the conditions noted above, SPBIO’s in position to pivot. Heading lower while LABD moves higher.

Potential USO Model:

When the big reversal takes hold, conditions may be similar to oil (USO) from July 2014, to the interim bottom of February, 2016.

During that move, the market retraced no more than 23.6%, at any stage of the decline.

However, if you recall, newsletter writers, pundits and YouTubers were putting out their prognostications; get into oil’s ‘big rebound’.

By February 2016, USO’s down a whopping – 81%. The oil market never came back.

Final Notes:

One commenter to a Jerimiah Babe video observed:

‘Most people think the worst is over when it’s not even started.’

That exemplifies the mindset required. This economic and societal decline is going to be a very long ordeal.

The normal at this point, is anything that wasn’t normal before.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech: Technical Force

June 25, 2021 By in Biotech, Bonds, IBB, LABD, Oil, Oil & Gas, Positions, Project Stimulus, SPBIO, USO 1 Comment

2:46 p.m., EST

LABD, Force Index Divergence

Sentiment, Volume, Price

Sentiment can’t be seen on the chart. One can guess but it can’t be measured directly.

Sentiment change comes first.

That change in turn, results in a change of volume, i.e. ‘commitment’.

Then, after commitment dissipates, price is next.

That looks like the current situation with biotech and specifically inverse fund, LABD.

In what may be an idiot or genius move (depending on outcome), the short in biotech SPBIO (via LABD) has been maintained throughout the current down thrust; not advice, not a recommendation.

The reasons for that decision have as many layers as the proverbial onion. Not the least of which, is a market break anywhere from 20% to 50% (in our view) can happen at any moment.

‘Never happened before’, one might say.

Oil futures in their entire history have never gone negative before, either.

Bonds, in their entire history have never been shorted by four-standard deviations before, either.

A world-wide coordinated push to euthanize the entire population has never happened before, either.

Margin debt and valuations have never been higher before, either.

Underlying liquidity has never before been removed to the current extent, either.

So, we each have our own reasons.

The firm’s main account (not the Project Stimulus account) has drawn down about – 13%, on the current short position.

A core position has been maintained but small amounts have been removed and added based on price action.

When the anticipated gain, is high hundreds of percent and maybe above 1,000%, the draw down above, looks acceptable considering the (potential) opportunity.

On to the chart:

The daily chart of LABD, shows both net downward price action and thrust energy are dissipating.

Note the ‘Force Index’ scale has been accentuated to better show the divergence.

We’re looking for price to move back higher to test support/resistance areas.

If or when it does, the plan (as has been from the beginning) is to continue to add LABD until volatility makes it prohibitive.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Deadliest in World History

June 24, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, The Speck

3:37 p.m., EST

Injections, Deadliest Ever

Forced Compliance

Biotech Danger Point

By this time, it’s no secret.

The ‘speck’ injections as we call them, have been proven to be the deadliest in world history.

Even with manipulating data by deleting deaths, delaying updates, pressuring medical professionals not to report, the data at this link paints a stark picture.

For reasons likely to be revealed later, major corporations are ‘requiring’ their employees to comply.

Not only that, in the link above it’s the clients as well. One has to wonder, who are ‘clients’ beneficiaries?

Before we leave the topic and move on to the chart, one of the ‘features’ of the injection, is sterilization.

No more employees. No more clients. No more future clients. Somehow that’s an effective business model.

Finally, a cursory review of the local ‘certified’ financial advisers and their websites has not one word about what’s really going on.

Do these people think by avoiding the truth, somehow they’re going to increase their business?

One major nationwide adviser/broker even has (in print, mind you) that ‘we’re going to have the best recovery ever!’

What are they going to say when there’s a “no bid” market and nobody can get in or out?

Crisis will create opportunity for leadership; at this point, there’s not much if any in the financial sector (i.e. ‘best ever’, above).

When the big melt-down hits, leadership’s not coming from the ranks of the ‘compliant’ or the enforced mediocrity of the ‘fiduciary’.

Therefore, we can all take our cue; like this Irish couple who took it upon themselves, to separate from the crowd and escape quarantine.

With that in mind, on to the markets:

Analysis, Biotech

As we head towards the close with about twenty minutes left, the S&P 500, has posted an all-time high.

Biotech, SPBIO and IBB, are still well below their highs but are nonetheless at a point of instability with today’s action.

As the Hourly chart of LABD shows, we’re at the danger point and in spring condition:

A push back into the range above support, is significantly bullish for LABD and bearish for SPBIO.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Dow Theory Sell: Update

June 23, 2021 By in Charles Dow, DIA, Wyckoff

12:51 p.m., EST

Upward Retrace To 38%

Downtrend To Resume?

It’s natural market behavior to rebound after a breakdown low.

Stops are hit; Amateurs sell and sell short. Professionals cover their shorts; go long or look to short again.

It’s what happens next, that’s important.

The market, DIA will likely come back to test the support/resistance boundary (blue line) in the daily chart above.

At this juncture, even though Dow Theory Sell was triggered (not advice, not a recommendation) with DIA closing below support last Friday, from a Wyckoff standpoint, DIA is in spring position.

Spring position; the market’s poised (but not guaranteed) to move higher.

If DIA comes back to test the boundary (typical behavior), there are two outcomes:

No. 1:

The test holds; price reverses and we’re on to potential new highs

No. 2:

The test fails; price re-penetrates the lows and then heads (much) lower.

Adding weight to the second scenario, DIA has already posted a new monthly low. That’s not happened since October last year.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

S&P 500: Trend Break & Test

June 22, 2021 By in S&P, S&P 500, SPY

9:12 a.m., EST

Trend Break Last Friday

Underside Test, In-Process

End Of The Line?

It’s about twenty minutes before the open. SPY, is trading essentially flat.

The daily chart above, shows the up-trend break was last Friday on increased volume.

SPY, has also posted a bearish divergence appearing to show significant weakness; attributed to MACD lines and histogram declining in parallel.

Getting a closer look (below):

Volume increases on the way down and decreases on the way up: Bearish

We also have a terminating wedge:

Yesterday was a test of the underside trend break. Today may continue that test or reverse at the open.

If SPY can somehow get above the trend break, it has a new lease on life.

However, with bonds, the dollar and gold already in reversals, probabilities suggest we’re at the end of the line.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Oil & Gas: Flaring Off?

June 21, 2021 By in DUG, Oil & Gas, XOP

9:47 a.m., EST

Wyckoff Up-Thrust, Reversal

Terminating Wedge

Upward Test

Oil & Gas Sector XOP, is posting an up-thrust, reversal condition in the weekly (above).

XOP is also in a terminating wedge:

Last Thursday and Friday were heavy volume days with Thursday posting a wide price bar (daily chart below):

We know that wide, high-volume bars, tend to get tested. XOP may attempt to post higher today or this week.

Doing so, narrows the range (to the highs) and reduces the risk for going short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Deep Dive: Biotech

June 20, 2021 By in Biotech, IBB, LABD, Livermore, Neil McCoy-Ward, Nuremberg 2.0, SPBIO, The Speck, Van Metre, Wyckoff

Biotech Reversal

Downside Projections

Nuremberg 2.0

For what seems the longest time, a recurring focus of this site has been the biotech sector.

Specifically, the IBB (ETF) and SPBIO (Index).

There’s good reason for that. In this update, we’ll go deeper into the downside opportunity.

Biotech Reversal:

SPBIO, topped out on February 9th this year. The IBB (ETF) topped one day later.

Both went on to form a Quarterly reversal bar; indicating a long term change in character.

Of the two, SPBIO has showed more weakness having posted monthly lower lows for three successive months.

That relative weakness over the IBB index, has resulted in focusing on the inverse of SPBIO; specifically the 3X inverse, LABD.

Working with leveraged inverse funds is only profitable on a short-term basis or when the underlying index is in a persistent down-trend.

Otherwise, typical market chop results in value erosion of the inverse fund (not advice, not a recommendation).

For the reasons discussed in the last section below (Nuremburg 2.0), we’re anticipating the index to have a sustained and persistent drop to much lower levels.

Downside Projections:

Going way back to Reminiscences of a Stock Operator and the Wyckoff Stock Market Institute training materials, both in their own way indicated a speculative position was only entered if there was sufficient potential.

Livermore’s 10-points or more and Wyckoff’s cause and effect

In Wyckoff’s case, the ’cause’ was price action congestion built up in the P&F chart.

The ‘effect’ was the resulting move.

Which brings us to now:

Many times on this site, we’ve said biotech has built up congestion in a way, when it reverses and begins its decline, price action itself will create lower targets.

We’ll present two charts showing how that’s happening.

The first P&F chart in this update and provided below, has a projected downside target for IBB around, 116 – 120 area:

Note, the downside is not to scale as the real location is far below the noted area.

Biotech IBB, then went on to post lower action. That in turn has resulted in an updated downside target:

Once again, the downside is not to scale.

It’s apparent, as IBB heads lower, it successively builds lower targets and it’s only (potentially) just getting started.

The weekly chart of IBB below, spells it out:

If and when IBB price action gets to the initial targets, it enters a congestion area that will (by that time) be over seven years wide.

If the trend is still down, that congestion in turn would target even lower levels.

The “-80%” interestingly enough, comes from a quote by Steven Van Metre at this link.

That 80% drop also corresponds to a downside Fibonacci (not shown) projection of 423.6%, on the above chart.

Nuremberg 2.0

This phrase has become so ubiquitous you can do a search for it.

So far, not a single mainstream financial site or YouTuber (still on that platform) has mentioned this fact in their analysis.

The speck injections are mass genocide and intended as such.

Two recent events resulting from injections are here and here.

If all of a sudden, injected pilots can’t fly (the first link), how are goods going to be transported?

Not generally known to the public, commercial air-transport is also used to haul freight (while carrying passengers).

Exactly how all of this (world crime) will break is unknown.

If and when it does, the result in the biotech sector as well as equities in general, could be successive air-pockets all the way down.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold, Dollar: In Tandem

June 19, 2021 By in Bonds, DIA, Dollar, Dow 30, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, UUP 2 Comments

Dollar Rally, Gold Rout

Markets Remain Inversely Correlated

First, let’s start with a review of the dollar reversal.

Back in early May, this report pointed at the possibility for a bullish set-up in the dollar.

That type of head’s up gives one time to investigate the correlations.

Correlations like, ‘is gold still inversely correlated to the dollar (and bonds)?’

Over the weeks as the set-up unfolds, confirmation or negation can be added by observing price action.

By the time we get the dollar penetrating support levels, we have gold at interim highs.

In fact on June 9th, the day the above ‘penetration’ report was posted, gold (GLD) had already reached its peak and was in a reversal.

Five days later (before the major down-move), this report was published on gold.

Therefore, at this juncture, we’re still inversely correlated.

So, what does that mean?

The updates on the dollar have proposed, since the bullish divergence (now turned rally) is on a longer, weekly time frame, the ensuing move could have the potential to carry the index UUP, to the top of the trading range shown here.

Then, what happens to gold?

If the negative correlation remains intact, gold gets whacked.

The weekly chart of GLD (above) has the index closing right at the Fibonacci 38.2%, projected level.

Wide bars tend to get tested. There could be some kind of rally in the coming week but it’s not required.

The Fibonacci projections highlighted as the orange bars, go all the way down to 161.8%. That’s equivalent to GLD at ~ 118.65, or the futures market somewhere around $1,300 – $1,350.

With the Dow 30, (DIA) penetrating and closing below the 336, support levels on Friday, we have a Dow Theory Sell Signal (not advice, not a recommendation).

The markets appear to be rolling over.

The last market reversal in February – March, of last year, had GLD dropping over – 14.5%, in two weeks.

Fast forward to now; GLD, is already down over – 15.2%, from its August 2020, highs.

Stay Tuned.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech: It’s a Set-Up

June 18, 2021 By in Biotech, IBB, LABD, Project Stimulus, SPBIO

12:57 p.m., EST

‘Breakout or Set-Up’ has been resolved

Biotech IBB, posts new daily low.

Going back a few days, we had the chart above:

Price action then stalled, retraced, penetrated support (blue line).

Yesterday, it edged higher in a low-volume test. Today, it reversed again and has just now, posted a new daily low.

It’s high probability the set-up is complete:

The expectation is for biotech IBB (and SPBIO) to decline from here.

Measured move targets have already been discussed as well as Point & Figure targets.

Several times in these updates the word ‘collapse’ has been used to describe the potential for biotech.

The monthly chart below shows a Fibonacci projection based off current price action.

Note how projected levels match up with support and resistance areas:

Obvioulsy, this is a long term projection.

It may work out the short position in biotech via LABD, (not advice not a recommendation) will have to be exited and re-entered several or many times if/when the sector heads for the bottom.

Stay Tuned

Bonus:

The hourly chart of IBB below, shows Wednesday’s price action touching, then bouncing off the first Fibonacci projection.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Update: Dow Theory, ‘Sell’

June 17, 2021 By in DIA, Dollar, Dow 30, DUST, GDX, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, UUP

9:05 a.m., EST

Dow 30 (DIA) breaks trendline

Price action declining towards support

Price action rolls over and in the process, breaks the uptrend.

The prior update, had this link to an explanation of the sell signal (not advice, not a recommendation).

The sell signal is confirmed if/when the support at the dashed line is penetrated with a close below that line.

Summary:

The markets were volatile yesterday with sharp moves in the dollar, gold and the gold miners.

Pre-market action has gold (GLD), continuing sharply lower; – 4.1 points, or – 2.37%.

Inverse GDX, gold miners DUST, is trading higher as well; up about + 1.1 points, or + 6.65%.

For those monitoring this site on a regular basis, none of the above is a surprise.

We’ve been reporting on the pending dollar reversal for weeks; how gold (and silver) still appear to be inversely correlated.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.