Author Archives: thedangerpoint

SOXX: Textbook Top?

July 6, 2021 By in DIA, DJUSBM, Holiday Turns, IWM, IYM, Russell 2000, S&P, S&P 500, SOXS, SOXX, SPY, Trading 2 Comments

11:48 a.m., EST

By The Book?

SOXX chart: Like something from a book on trading

Price action’s struggling at new highs. MACD’s posting a bearish divergence. Can it get any better for the shorts?

(not advice, not a recommendation)

At least one thing missing (as of this post) is a new daily low. If we get that, it helps provide confirmation of a SOXX, top.

The S&P (SPY ) and the Dow (DIA), have both posted new daily lows as has the Russell 2000 (IWM).

We can also throw in Basic Materials DJUSBM (IYM), making a new daily low.

Recall in a previous update, empirical observation over the years; market tops tend to occur before, during, or just after a holiday week.

Looks like we may be there.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech: Now, It Gets Real

July 5, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD, Mike Yeadon, The Speck, Vernon Coleman, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Biotech reversal

No one is looking

The only way for price action to even hope of printing a Fibonacci series (daily chart), is when virtually no one is looking.

A quick YouTube search of “Biotech analysis“, turns up these links:

Best Biotech Growth Stock to Buy Now?? : Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Stock Analysis

3 Cheap Biotech Stocks With 100% Upside in 2021

Biotech analyst on CRISPR technology: Early data is very promising

Those three, are the most recent.

Looking at each, none of them even hint things could go wrong.

To be really cynical (and probably correct), the senior trading professionals may know this sector’s at risk of implosion.

They task junior employees to cover it; attempting to talk it up.

Analysis: SPBIO

Moving on to inverse fund LABD, we have Fibonacci correlation on two time frames:

In addition, from a Wyckoff standpoint, we’re in spring position on the weekly and daily time frames.

All of this points to high probability (not advice, not a recommendation) that biotech and specifically the weaker SPBIO, has pivoted to the downside (LABD higher).

Naming Names:

A couple of days ago, we had Dr. Yeadon (former Chief Scientist, Pfizer) absolutely grilling and eviscerating his interviewers, covered here.

Then, we have Dr. Coleman deciding to name, names.

Now, it’s getting real.

With this type of high-level pressure being applied from internationally known and respected (real) heroes, one has to think, it can’t be long before the lie is fully exposed; blowing the entire sector, wide open.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Random Notes

July 4, 2021 By in Catherine Austin Fitts, Jerimiah Babe, Neo Feudalism, The Speck, Usual Suspects

The usual suspects for the week

No. 1

Next Up: Power Outage

National Guard’s in training for nationwide power outages.

The June 26th post, finished with this quote:

‘Most people think the worst is over when it’s not even started.’

That exemplifies the mindset required. This economic and societal decline is going to be a very long ordeal.

Surviving it, is like the two guys spooking a bear in the woods.

“We’re not going to out-run him” one says. The other guys says, “I don’t need to run faster than him … just faster than you”.

You don’t need to have 5-years of food stored. You only need as much to outlast the majority who are not prepared.

No. 2

Neo Feudalism

It’s been a while since this concept has been discussed. Our last post on the subject is here.

Now, we have this site giving us another view of the plan as it moves forward.

Self-employment is one answer to avoid being sucked into serfdom.

No. 3

Grease Plant Destroyed

Largest grease plant in the U.S. destroyed by fire.

So far we have:

Ship blocks Suez Canal for six (that’s right, 6) days.

Then, a 557 ft. ship carrying auto parts, sinks off coast of Japan.

Now, we have a grease plant fire.

Want grease, auto parts or food?

Get injected and we’ll put it all back to ‘normal’.

No. 4

Idiots Suffer More

There’s no joy watching others suffer.

Those of us who just want to ‘wake up others’, want only that; meaning, somehow, you’re able to pull back the veil. They now have eyes to see and ears to hear.

However, some seem to be under a spell.

Even after being diagnosed with a known side effect from injection, the truth is still mocked (time stamp 0:53 in the text).

No. 5

“Churches … have basically, checked-out”

Jerimiah Babe calls it straight at time stamp: 16:24

‘The Church’ had its opportunity way back in March of 2020.

That was the time to call on supernatural protection to ward off (what this site calls ‘the speck’ to avoid censorship) any negative effects of what we now know, was a fake enemy.

What we have instead, is this.

Let’s review for just a second:

“But the men marvelled, saying, What manner of man is this, that even the winds and the sea obey him!”

Does the master of the universe, the maker and sustainer of all things, really need a ‘man-made’ injection?

No. 6

Expired Lethality

It’s bad enough to line up and voluntarily get injected with a lethal compound.

Now, I’ve got to worry if that lethality has “expired”.

If it’s expired, is it more lethal, or less?

I want my money’s worth!

No. 7

Texas Heatwave … just another lie

The article at this link would have you believe it’s sweltering in Texas.

The short answer is no.

Not only no, but summer in Texas, had a late start.

The morning of Labor Day weekend, scheduled opening for the pool at city park, was 68-degrees.

The high for Labor Day Sunday, in Ft. Worth Texas, was 14-degrees colder, than last year.

No. 8

Pharmacist tells it like it is

Refuses to be part of the execution squad.

No. 9

Lions and tigers and Delta … Oh my!

Catherine Austin Fitts provides insight. Delta ‘variant’, is really ‘injury’ from the injection.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Jab if you do … Jab if you don’t

July 3, 2021 By in Catherine Austin Fitts, David Knight, The Speck, Vernon Coleman

Those injected, thought they could travel

If you’re a leader, business owner or entrepreneur, dealing with idiots is probably the most frustrating part of running a business.

The leader has an absolutely thankless job most of the time.

However, there are times where being someone that can think, act, and be resistant to the criticisms of the crowd (‘double-jabbed zombies’ as Dr. Vernon Coleman calls them), pays off in spades.

At least we don’t have to put up with being played as we see here.

As we move forward to fall and winter, we’ll find out just how important resisting the peer pressure of the (double-jabbed) crowd may be.

On the practical side, David Knight interviews Catherine Austin Fitts on steps that can be implemented for personal financial and legal protection.

She touches on a subject that’s been covered several times on this site; that is, killing-off your customers is not good for future business.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Downside Leaders: Gold, Biotech

July 2, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, GDX, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Holiday Turns, IBB, LABD, Prechter, SPBIO

11:39 a.m., EST

Biotech SPBIO, Down Over 21%

Miners GDX, Down Over 25%

As of about 10:50 a.m., EST, this is where we are from a sector standpoint.

The major indices are masking the potential the next leg down, has already started.

Yesterday’s update posted the link for ‘Holiday Turns’.

It’s a list of empirical observation that market tops (reversals) tend to occur during holiday weeks.

The weekly chart of biotech SPBIO (which has been inverted), shows a Fibonacci 21-weeks, from the all time high (low on the chart) to this week’s pivot:

Not only is SPBIO adhering to Fibonacci time prints on the weekly, it’s doing it on the daily as well.

It was a Fibonacci 34 days to complete the 38%, retrace.

It was a Fibonacci 5 days to complete the most recent reversal and test; culminating early this session.

As stated many times, the bottom may fall out of biotech.

Someone or something in the criminal cabal is going to let loose; fully exposing the real intent of the entire operation.

Recall Prechter’s admonition; ‘price leads the news’

If SPBIO reverses at week 21, with a decisive move lower, it may not be long before news precipitates out into the mainstream.

We’re now two-hours into the trading day.

It’s typical for SPBIO, to begin its erosion (discussed here). Let’s see if it can retrace the sharp down move from the early session.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

SOXX: Signs of a Top

July 1, 2021 By in AA, David Weis, Holiday Turns, SOXS, SOXX, UAL 2 Comments

10:56 a.m., EST

Semiconductor SOXX, at Danger Point

‘Spring-to-Up thrust’ is a common price action phenomenon.

Credit goes to the late David Weis for noting this behavior in one of his daily market updates from years past.

Now, we see it in action with SOXX.

As with airlines, semiconductors are highly susceptible to economic changes. Both operate on thin margins and have high capital costs.

Airlines (at least UAL and AA) have never recovered to new all-time highs. Maybe the semis went higher because of all the contract tracing that’s being projected.

However, noted in yesterday’s update, there’s a chance there won’t be much to ‘trace’; we’ll find out very soon.

SOXX is at the danger point; risk of a short position (not advice not a recommendation) is at minimum.

As an extra reminder, we’ll add a frequently discussed theme for market tops: ‘Holiday Turns‘

Emperical data shows that markets tend to reverse before, during, or just after a holiday week.

This week could be one of those.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

United Airlines … Signals Sell

June 30, 2021 By in Airlines, Indian Summer, S&P, S&P 500, The Speck, UAL 1 Comment

3:13 p.m., EST

There’s no such thing as corporate ‘leadership’.

At this point, especially after witnessing the ‘lock-step’ positioning of major corporations over the past year, one thing is obvious:

They’re all operating in concert.

The coordinated message is that everything’s getting back on track. No need to worry.

See how ‘normal’ things are? Big companies are even ‘planning’ for the future. Stay calm and take no (preparatory) action.

Indian Summer:

The reality is, just as this link suggests, we’re in an Indian Summer. That is, we’re between two extremes.

The past year can be viewed as the summer heat. Then, we’ve just had a break (advent of fall/winter) with restrictions being lifted … but soon the figurative and literal winter will come.

Think that’s a bit much? Well, let’s just take a look at one item.

The video in the link above, mentions the need for ‘body bags’; that we’ll run out … sounds insane.

Well, here they are … all ready to go.

Which brings us to the markets.

Chart Analysis, UAL:

The long term, Quarterly chart shows the extent of the technical damage.

The 80% drop could be the beginning of a multi year (maybe decades long) decline.

If it was a crash (like lumber futures), it will have the typical crash-like structure.

That is: An initial swift, decisive decline; followed by retracement which then rolls over into a sustained and long term move lower.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500, is hovering at its all-time-highs.

Not only has UAL not made a new all time high (posted way back in December of 2018), the weekly chart shows it’s formed a terminating wedge.

At this point, it’s ‘rolling out’ of that wedge indicating sell or sell short; Not advice, not a recommendation.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

‘Make-A-Wish’ … Tipping Point?

June 29, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD, Make-A-Wish, SPBIO

12:54 p.m., EST

News Hits Mainstream

Biotech Pivots

Operating with impunity, does have its limits.

However, those fully immersed in their evil, are not aware when sentiment changes.

How can they be?

They don’t have the discernment (a God-given gift), that lets them know when the jig is up.

The statements made by the organization’s CEO listed in the title block, sorry, you’ll have to do your own search, we’re not providing links for what should be obvious reasons, has instantly brought the entire ‘charitable foundation’ schtick under suspicion if not outright exposure.

The visceral response to those statements was immediate.

Complexion of the so called ‘charitable’ industries has forever changed.

Has sentiment for the biotech euthanasia project changed also?

As always, price action is the final arbiter. Anything can happen.

Chart Analysis: Biotech, SPBIO

At this juncture biotech and specifically SPBIO, has pivoted decisively to the downside.

As with yesterday’s update, the daily SPBIO chart is inverted and annotated:

The ‘repeating trendline’ concept that’s been discussed for nearly the entire seven week corrective period, is included above.

This time, it looks like we’ve reached the right-edge.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Obvious Reversal: Biotech

June 28, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD, SPBIO 2 Comments

1:53 p.m., EST

SPBIO, & IBB, Reversal

Over the past seven weeks, as the biotech indexes worked their way through a corrective retrace, there were no guarantees we’d get such an obvious reversal.

A market disconnect could have happened at any time (and is still a possibility).

At this juncture with SPBIO, penetrating and rejecting a prior resistance area, we’re likely on the way to much lower levels.

The daily SPBIO is below. The next chart has it inverted with notations added:

Inverted. Notations added:

We see penetration below the blue line support area. This sets up the Wyckoff spring condition (up-thrust, non-inverted).

The last update, showed thrust energy already divergent; set for reversal.

Note:

The criminal behavior within this sector continues to mount by the day.

Operating with impunity.

When, how, or if that breaks out into the open, is the big unknown.

SPBIO, Character Change:

One of the benefits (if you can call it that) of having a position that’s eroding by the day, is that you get very intimate with the behavior of price action.

Consider it an ‘opportunity’ to focus the mind.

The typical behavior of SPBIO (and inverse LABD), is to establish the day’s trading range within the first two hours of the session.

Consider those two hours as the ‘head fake’ as that range is then eroded throughout the rest of the day.

Today’s session has been no different. A wide range established early but here’s the change; There’s been little, to no erosion.

As if on cue, during the third hour of trade, SPBIO attempted to erode the range. Inverse LABD, shown below.

However, that attempt appears to have been rejected:

As of this post, price action can’t get itself (appreciably) back into the early morning’s range. The character of the index has changed.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Deep Dive: Gold Reversal

June 27, 2021 By in GDX, GOLD, Gold Miners, ice-age-farmer, Prechter, The Speck, Van Metre, Wyckoff

Gold Miner’s GDX

Fibonacci Projection

Rule of Alternation

Wyckoff analysis was used to identify the GDX up-thrust, reversal condition.

Nine trading days later, GDX is down a stiff -11.7%, from the analysis location.

It’s down -14.9% from its interim high set on May 19th.

What happens next?

This site offers a different perspective (more thoughtful, perhaps) than ‘stacking’ precious metals as high as possible.

Thoughts such as, major infrastructure disruptions (and more) are likely:

That includes nationwide power outages, food transport interruptions (or cancelled outright) along with massive ‘speck’ injected casualties (estimated past 100,000), see this report.

The very last thing you’ll need in that environment, is a stack of metal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Personal anecdote, skip to GDX Chart, if not interested.

These updates are originating from the North-Central area of Texas (DFW). When the historic cold snap rolled through this past February, the power went out repeatedly.

The first thought was not: “I’m sure glad I have my stack of silver to get me through”

No. The thinking was (in this order):

Food, water (water was second as there was plenty of it just outside as snow), munitions and ‘delivery mechanisms’, cash in case the gas station was operational … which is was not and then lastly, heat.

The location was using natural gas for heating and was available as long as there was power

Precious metals were nowhere on the list … not even considered. They had nothing to do with the situation at hand.

Precious metals come later … after the famine.

GDX Chart:

The original analysis from June 8th, is below:

Subsequent trade action (including the original notes):

Weekly chart showing Fibonacci downside projection to level(s) mentioned frequently by Steven Van Metre.

In the chart above, note the choppy action leading down to the most recent upside pivot (early March). That area expanded below:

If we’re in a reversal to much lower levels, the market tends to alternate.

It was choppy and overlapping action from the highs in August of ’20 to the March ’21, low.

Thus far at the pivot high in late May, its been essentially straight down.

With the planned outages discussed above, precious metals may become (temporarily) irrelevant.

If or when that happens, it may be time to consider a ‘stack’.

Of course, by then, no one will want to buy (and spend their worthless fiat cash) for risk of starving to death. This is how markets work.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.