Although none of the above directly affects day to day price action of INTC, what it does do, is provide the fundamental backdrop; Portland and immediate vicinity is heading down and the pace is accelerating.
Intel Daily Close
At this juncture (11:38 a.m., EST), Intel is clawing its way back to test a potential trendline.
All lines are exactly parallel.
The grey trendline in the chart is there to show, we have repeating trendlines throughout the price action when taken from the left side of the trading channel.
If price action continues to struggle and closes near the level as shown (grey arrow), it’s a potential indicator that we have a right side trendline contact (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Unless we reverse right here and now, Fibonacci retrace and projections (shown below) target the $260 – level for TSLA.
If you know what’s (potentially) coming, you can get ready.
The ‘Ponzi’ case for Tesla has already been established with this prior link, here. Of special note in that link, are the production percentages for General Motors.
With all of that, let’s go out on a limb and project TSLA might top at 266, instead of the Fibonacci projected 260 (not advice, not a recommendation).
Tesla TSLA, Daily
The daily chart is compressed to show the entire down-wave and retrace from the November 4th, 2021, high.
Three retrace levels are shown (magenta); first is 23.6%, then 38.2% and labeled retrace of 50%, near the 259-level.
Moving closer-in, and including Fibonacci wave projection, while keeping the retrace levels, yields the following.
The chart’s a little bit busy but one gets the idea.
There’s a Fibonacci overlap of retrace and projection near the 259-260, level.
What’s another 6-points between friends to get to 266?
Next Steps
Of course, anything can happen and TSLA, could reverse to the downside on Monday.
However, if it continues higher, we’ll be monitoring for potential confirmation of the target and subsequent reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Beginning next week, we’re about to find out if Intel (INTC) is on track to be a ‘penny stock’, by year-end.
Stocks trading below $5/share, are technically called ‘Penny Stocks‘, and mostly ignored by institutional money.
Dystopian Hell: The Stage Is Set
INTC, has already cut the dividend by 66% (note the symbolism) and is ‘conserving cash’.
A large part of their operation with 18,600 employees, is just outside Portland, Oregon.
Here’s a recent look at Portland, uploaded two months ago.
‘Gee honey. Let’s take the kids and move to Portland … Not.’
Incredible, that ‘Speck Protection’ is STILL being pushed (time stamp 2:11). How would you like to work at a location at this late date, where it’s normal to wear a mask?
All of this brings us to the chart. The price action itself defines the next likely course (Wyckoff).
Intel INTC, Weekly Close
Last week closed testing underside resistance and potential right-side trend line contact (second chart).
Compressing the chart and expanding the downside scale, gives us the following.
Just in case anyone’s skeptical about ‘channels’ not being a real potential, here’s the latest look at Carvana (CVNA).
Carvana CVNA, Weekly Close
It’s important to note, not only the channel but the location of “No P/E”, which was the release of this post.
Carvana never closed higher after December 11th, 2021.
Intel, What’s Next?
Will it be the same for Intel?
Of course, that’s not known. Price action itself is the final arbiter; at this juncture, it’s at The Danger Point®
This is where the risk is least (not advice, not a recommendation).
If price action moves significantly higher from here, let’s say 5%, then we’ve likely bottomed and are heading into a rebound.
If not, and Monday, opens and closes lower, it may be a confirmation of the right-side trend line and potential trading channel (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
How appropriate then, that someone who typically plays the ‘village idiot’ comes out with the truth.
Whether the ‘false narrative’ is finally crumbling or not, is not directly related to analyzing price action.
It does, however, provide the backdrop.
The ‘Big Reveal’
The last update in biotech had this to say (emphasis added):
“If this is the big reversal and biotech is the downside leader, unfortunately, that could mean a planned ‘reveal’ by the mainstream media.“
What wasn’t known, was just exactly how the truth would come out. Now, we know.
All of which, brings us to the topic at hand: Biotech SPBIO.
It turns out, SPBIO, is trading most consistently, on a three-day pattern.
Biotech SPBIO, 3-Day
In Wyckoff terms, the market itself defines what timeframes and what support/resistance levels are important.
Next up, we’re going to invert the chart to mimic the price action observed on the leveraged inverse fund LABD.
Biotech SPBIO, 3-Day, Inverted
And now, the characteristics of this sector the market itself, has revealed.
At this juncture, SPBIO, trades in a sequence of 3-Days after which, if there’s a directional move, continues on for nine consecutive bars.
After nine-bars, price action typically enters a correction for an undetermined amount of time.
After the correction’s compete the market has (in the past) continued on a directional move for another nine-bars.
Then & Now
We’re currently in a directional move that’s five ‘3-Day Bars’ in thus far.
If the market adheres to its prior behavior(s), we have at least four more ‘three-days’ to go (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note, the current reversal was identified to the day, with this update:
“However, today’s action is consistent with resolution of the five-months of congestion (not advice, not a recommendation).”
The fact the congestion period for SPBIO has taken so long to (apparently) resolve itself, has produced the potential for price action to go farther, last longer than anyone would normally expect.
That move if it happens, connects well with the introduction at the top of this post; a large part of the public has been informed in no uncertain terms, it was all a lie.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
With today’s heavy downward action, as we head into the close, any number of scenarios could play out.
Work has already been done on INTC, KMX, MRNA, Biotech Leveraged Inverse LABD, and others.
With such a decisive push lower, there could be some kind of short covering late in the session.
For example, as of this post 2:15 p.m. EST, KMX (detailed below) appears to be coming off the day’s lows.
CarMax Weakness
The daily chart has KMX, right a the bottom of a trading channel.
Price action may continue to rebound from this area heading into the close or not.
If there’s a rebound, naturally Put options will begin to decay in value … a desired outcome if one is looking to enter short (at the cheapest price possible).
The bottom of the channel line could be all there is for this week or we could be heading to much lower levels.
It’s up to the trader/speculator to decide (not advice, not a recommendation)
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
With that understood, we’ll present three potential scenarios for Moderna (MRNA) price action for the upcoming days, or week(s).
When we last left our chief cook and spike-protein injector, price action was in a downtrend but also in Wyckoff spring position; indicating at least a chance for upside.
As with the CarMax (KMX) analysis, still playing out with Scenario No. 2, and/or No. 3, at this link as the forecasted price action, we’ll show potential Scenario No. 1 – No. 3, for MRNA, below.
Moderna MRNA, Daily, Forecasted Action
Scenario No. 1
Upside wedge breakout
Scenario No. 2
Downside wedge breakout with no test
And now, the most probable, ‘If there’s a downside breakout.
From a short-dated options standpoint, Scenario No. 3, is the most desirable (not advice, not a recommendation).
If there’s a downside breakout with no test, there’s always the possibility at some point, there will be a test, which in turn completely wipes out any potential gain in the (put) trade; time would run out and the option expires.
Re-Visiting, Elder
Recall, in the example that Dr. Elder gave, he bought OEX Put Options at 3/8-ths, back in the day when the markets traded in fractions.
Three-eighths is 0.375, which gives a target value on which option to select (not advice, not a recommendation).
To get to that small of a fraction, the option’s either way out of the money, short on time, or both.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
With a potential right-side trend (and channel) contact confirmed; shown below at – 86% annualized, odds are now favorable for a Put strategy.
In addition to the technical factors discussed, listed at the bottom of this post are no fewer than 22-links to the current fundamental state of biotech and their ‘handiwork’.
The weekly chart of MRNA, has a Wyckoff Up-Thrust and a test, confirmed by the downside pivot.
Moderna MRNA, Weekly
Notice the reversal action took place at a very weak Fibonacci 23.6% retrace.
The two blue lines on the daily chart (below) are exactly parallel.
The grey lines are parallel to the blue lines and intended to show MRNA, exhibits a repeating (downtrend) pattern.
Moderna MRNA, Daily
The expanded version on the daily has support being penetrated (horizontal blue line) and then ‘spring’ action last Friday as a result.
Of course, it’s ‘what happens next’, that’s the question.
In a prefect scenario, price action would thrust lower for a day or several days and then come back up to test the underside of resistance.
Elder Option Strategy
This strategy is taken from Elder’s book ‘Come Into My Trading Room’, and seeks to use as short-dated options as possible.
Doing so, requires the discipline to wait sufficient amount of time for price action to get into position and for option time value to bleed-off.
Potential Upside
Since we’re already in spring position and price action moved off the lows on Friday, MRNA could continue the upside right back to, or past the downtrend line.
However, with massive (undeniable) fundamentals building buy the day, and MRNA being mentioned specifically in at least one link below, probabilities favor the downside.
Supporting Links For The Bearish Stance
Florida Surgeon General Warns Life-Threatening VAERS Reports Up 4,400 Percent Since COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout
US Says Government, Not Moderna, Should Face COVID-19 Vaccine Lawsuit
New Medical Codes For COVID Vaccination Status Raise Concerns Among Experts
Watch: Rand Paul Grills School Of Nursing Head On Student COVID Vaccine Mandate
US Navy Lifts COVID Vaccine Mandate For Sailor Deployment
Mainstream Media Continues To Push False ‘COVID Heart’ Narrative To Explain Excess Deaths
NFL Players’ Association Urged To Screen for Heart Issues Over Vaccine Side Effects
WHO Suddenly Shelves Plans For Second Phase Investigation Into Origins Of COVID-19: Report
Watch: CDC Director Suggests It Will Never Change Child-Masking Policy
Rand Paul Introduces Bill To Halt Funding For Hospitals Denying Care To The Unvaxxed
Welfare State Weakens… 30 Million Americans Are About To Lose ‘COVID’ Food Stamp Handouts
IMF Says World Needs To Prepare For The “Unthinkable” After COVID, War In Ukraine
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 