Set-Up Details … Real Estate

At A ‘Confluence’

The last update, posted late in the session, said with the upward bias provided by the sizable Op-Ex event, we can look for the weakest (or one of the weakest) sectors.

The chart below summarizes yesterday’s action:

Friday 10/21/22, Single Day Gains

Gold miners GDX, is the outlier at the top and real estate IYR, the outlier at the bottom.

Before anybody gets excited about ‘hyperinflation’, just a reminder; silver SLV’s, action has retraced to a weak 38.2% (chart not shown), as it was forecasted to do from last week’s update:

“Silver (SLV) is currently at support levels; therefore, some upward action (staying below SLV: 18.5) is normal behavior.”

Price action is the final arbiter; we’ll see what happens next.

Back to real estate.

Professional Wisdom: ‘The Crash’

We’re going to use the experience and insight provided by Scott Walters concerning the potential for real estate; that is, we’re in a world-wide event the scale of which, no one alive (and possibly, ever) has seen before.

The Economic Ninja has just seconded that opinion (time stamp 3:45) with his quote:

“Right now, we are in the greatest collapse since The Great Depression; and I believe it will be as severe, if not worse, sharper, faster, than what people experienced in 1929”.

So, what would that ‘collapse’ look like on a chart of real estate, IYR?

Ah, yes. That’s the hard part.

To take useful wisdom like that above, and somehow map it into potential market behavior.

For that, we’re going to use the Quarterly chart of IYR.

Real Estate IYR, Quarterly

There are still two months and one week left to go in the 4th, Quarter.

We’re at a confluence of price action as we’ll cover in the Hourly chart farther down; first, what’s the potential?

Here is one artist’s rendition (not advice, not a recommendation).

That puts it into perspective.

We may know at the very next open, if we’re pivoting higher or continuing the decline.

Butterfly In The Amazon

Of course, the market’s not going to tell anyone its next move. We have to decipher that (read the tape) ourselves.

Sometimes, as Wyckoff said a century ago … ‘It’s as if the weight of a feather is all that’s needed, to push the market further or to reverse.’

So, let’s look at that feather (the butterfly) on the hourly chart.

Since we’re positioned short (DRV-22-05), the chart’s inverted to mimic leveraged inverse fund DRV.

Real Estate IYR, Hourly (Inverted)

The important part is we see a repeating pattern of trendlines.

Moving in closer, we have this. The blue arrow is ‘expected’ action based on the analysis up to this point (not advice, not a recommendation).

Moving even closer, the zoom shows IYR, finished the day in Wyckoff spring position; having pushed past minor support (resistance on non-inverted).

Summary

If IYR opens lower or gap-lower, we’ll have to wait and see if it posts a new daily low (below IYR ,77.24).

If that happens, we have some confirmation lower prices are ahead and can then set a definitive stop for DRV-22-05.

Obviously, a higher open (pushing past IYR 78.91), negates the trade.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Retail Investor … The Apocalypse

Mass Psychosis, At The Edge

Even before we had gone around the room to introduce ourselves, the instructor at Online Trading Academy, Dallas, said he had a important topic to cover.

He wanted to make sure everyone understood the concept. The rest of the seven-day course hinged on the understanding and acceptance of the idea.

What was it?

You may have already guessed: ‘Short Selling’.

The big money is made on the downside … not after, when the bottom is in, although that may happen as well. No, it’s the downside that has the greatest opportunity for profit.

Fear is a much easier emotion to gauge than greed; in that sense, down is easier than up.

Short Selling: Market Trading 101

You would think it’s a no-brainer; that everyone knows this.

Not so.

Years ago, while discussing the markets with a former broker, he asked me, and I quote: “What’s an inverse fund?”

During a business lunch, I asked another broker if he worked the downside for his clients. The response was “They can’t handle the volatility”.

In his case, he knows the vehicles are there (inverse funds) but he doesn’t use them; only working the upside.

Shorting The Market

My first short sale was back around 1995.

I shorted ‘against the box‘, when you could still do so. The short trade was Alcide.

In the May 1993, edition of my newsletter (see About) ‘Market Order Letter’, published by my firm, Equity Research Corporation, Alcide received initial coverage.

Prior to that edition, I managed to get a phone interview with Mr. John Richards, Vice President, and Chief Financial Officer of the company.

Remember that I was simultaneously employed as Engineering Technical Manager, for an avionics company. So, the interview was performed on my lunch hour.

During the call, I had made it past the receptionist, then secretary, and then to Mr. Richards, specifically.

Initially, the interview was not going well.

I could tell he considered me an annoyance and rightly so. That was, until I mentioned the competition and how they were going to deal with that.

At the time, Isomedix, had a plan to irradiate chicken (carcasses) to prevent salmonella. Conversely, Alcide had a product that was sprayed on (i.e. low-tech) and biodegradable.

When I mentioned Isomedix, the tone of the conversation changed instantly. I had done my work; I knew the market and wasn’t some newbie (even in ’93).

Mr. Richards opened up and gave me a fantastic interview discussing all manner of things. I did not tell him I was on my lunch hour and in the end, had to politely say, ‘You must be busy, so I’ll let you go’; thank you for your input.

Alcide (ALCD) was a ten-bagger that ultimately went from about $3/share to above $60/share (actually, a twenty-bagger) before being acquired by Ecolab.

Which brings us back to the ‘Retail Investor’

Still Buying The Dip

One more thing about the trading class mentioned above.

After the short-selling topic was covered, the instructor went on to say, the fact we were sitting in that room, separated us out from the massive herd of ‘investors’.

At that time, there were about 40,000 – 60,000 professional traders in the U.S. Although still neophytes, we were considered in that group.

That’s 60,000 out of 240-million adults, putting the ratio at around 0.03%

Now, on to ‘the dip’.

This article out from ZeroHedge has the data saying, ‘Retail’, is still buying the dips although the average portfolio is down a whopping -34%, for the year.

Without getting into specifics, the most conservative account managed by my firm is up over 30%, for the year, which includes the LABD, whack from this past Friday.

Note: An updated analysis of Biotech SPBIO, inverse LABD, and LABD-22-03, is scheduled for tomorrow.

Fuel, For The Downside

Over a century ago, Wyckoff wrote about the behavior of those on the wrong side of the trade.

That is, they are the ones who provide the fuel for the next move. In our case, that would be fuel for the downside.

Investors are buying the dip, because that’s all they know how to do.

It’s a sign of desperation.

Hoping that somehow, the markets will pull them out and return things to ‘normal’.

If you’ve read this far, you already know, ‘normal’ is gone.

Whatever happens next, (except for the starvation) will be completely new.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Weekly, Wrap-Up

The Usual Suspects

No. 1

‘Finger Snap’ Offense

As if to drive the point of yesterday’s post home, we have this just out from ‘Economic Ninja‘.

People are offended by him snapping his fingers at the beginning of each video.

You can’t make this stuff up.

But wait, there’s more.

Those same snowflakes go on to say they’re offended that ‘Ninja’ is planning to take advantage of the real estate crash; being liquid at the bottom so he can buy-in, at pennies on the dollar.

I wonder how many of these coneheads are ‘financial advisors’, but I digress.

No. 2

‘Sudden Adult Death’

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, after thousands, if not tens of thousands of years of humanity, we have a brand-new disease.

Doctors are “baffled”. Who can it be now?

Wheels are set in motion for decades of repercussions.

We’re still at that leading edge.

No. 3

More Airplanes Going Down

This would have nothing to do with No. 2, above, right?

Link is here.

No. 4

So, It Was Just The Flu, All Along?

Daivid Knight, in his broadcast talks about the weasels attempting to jump ship.

Take a look.

Good thing this site figured it out long ago and well before it was obvious.

No. 5

It’s The Dollar (for now), Not Gold

When the forecast does not go your way, especially for gold, all you have to do is say, “It’s all rigged”.

That’s not very useful; especially if one is attempting to allocate assets as my firm does.

The article linked here, says part of the problem gold’s not higher is because of the strong dollar.

Wouldn’t it have been nice to know, eighteen months ago, the dollar was in position to rally?

Like this post did, for example. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

S&P Rally to Continue ?

Dan … We’ve Bottomed Out !!!

‘Hey Dan, the worst is behind us.’

That’s going to age just as well as our picture at left.

Toilet paper across my face, makes me feel so much more safe.

Within the first ten seconds in the link above, Dan from i-Allegedly gets into it.

He still, at this late stage, has people contacting him to say we’re past the bottom.

He summarizes those comments by saying, ‘We’re far from the bottom of anything.’

Then, as if on cue, ‘Economic Ninja‘ comes online to let us know, another 200,000 egg-laying chickens have just been destroyed in a ‘mysterious fire’ … imagine that.

Almost becoming background noise to all this, the S&P 500, in a sharp rally on Friday that looks like it won’t stop.

S&P 500, Summary

Friday’s action took the S&P back to test resistance on waning volume while at the same time, posting a Wyckoff spring to up-thrust.

That’s it in a nutshell.

Daily SPY, Close

With markup notes

Getting closer-in on the candle chart.

Futures Market

As of this post (3:31 p.m., EST) the futures are higher by a tad at +0.52%. The question is, will that carry-through into the Tuesday open?

Of course, that’s not known. What we do know however, is that price is at established resistance and in up-thrust (potential reversal) condition.

Even if the ultimate direction for the market is higher, normal behavior would suggest a pull-back to gather more fuel for such an attempt.

Otherwise, we’re at the danger point; conditions have been set for downside reversal.

Stay Tuned

Update 6:47 p.m. EST:

S&P futures dropping … now up only +0.17%

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Random Notes

The usual suspects for the week.

No. 1

You can’t make this stuff up.

CDC declares PCR test unsuitable for identifying ‘The Speck’.

For those new to this site, it’s called ‘The Speck’ (to avoid censorship, and) as a spoof from Horton Hears a Who … the speck on the clover

The speck on the clover represents how big the supposed ailment really is … virtually non-existent.

Back to the CDC.

Screen-shot of website, below:

Actual link to the website, is here.

Turns out Dr. Coleman was right (never doubted him). It’s just the re-branded, seasonal flu.

One more brick in the wall for biotech.

No. 2

You’re going to need a root cellar.

The No. 1, item shows the wheels already set in motion.

If the available data is even half-correct (pathogenic priming), it will be years, if not decades before the oscillations from this event dampen out.

So, it’s prepare for the long game.

Here are two links (here and here) describing effective, low cost root cellar designs.

No. 3

Here we go again.

It’s back to Mask on, Mask off and what the ‘experts‘ say.

What variant are we on now … Epsilon?

No. 4

Quote of the week:

You have to go where the food is as it wont be picked packaged or transported. Without food everything else is irrelevant.

The big “joke” is that people actually believe the plandemic is over when is is only just getting going, they have seen to that.

Normal is never coming back so the sooner people REFUSE to participate in what is being forced on us the faster we may have our lives back.

Unfortunately an overwhelming majority are not able to think for themselves and eventually lapse into insanity due to the psychological warfare they voluntarily watch every day.

Link to the above quote (posted in the comments) is here.

Yes, ‘Without food … ‘ How’s that stack of silver coming?

No. 5

Think like a Texan

J.P. Sears, shows us how it’s done.

No. 6

Bartering?

If it gets to bartering, Glenfiddich is the most recognizable and available 12-yr old Scotch.

No. 7

Administering The Mark

If it really is the mark, it’s nice to see ‘the church’ has become so deceived (and vile), they are helping lead the effort.

The video above, shows someone that’s collapsed just after injection; right on the steps of ‘the church’.

“And then will I profess unto them, I never knew you: depart from me, ye that work iniquity.”

Time stamp 0:02 at this link confirms the location.

No. 8

Let them eat trash

Incompetence runs the city.

Brokerage firm Schwab’s headquarters has officially pulled out of San Fran for Dallas … anyone else left?

If we’re really in the first stages of ‘balkanization’, it’s clear that Texas will be a major player.

No. 9

The one difference between ‘Conspiracy’ and fact, is ‘Time’.

No. 10

Food prices surge … supply chain about to break (if not already).

At time stamp 8:49, J.B. reports that food prices in Lebanon have increased 670%, in about two years.

Coffee futures moving up as a result of crop failures in Brazil.

If you already have precious metals … great.

If not, they may be about to come on sale in exchange for food.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Deflation = Credit Destruction

Silver Collapse Ahead?

If and when food shipments halt nationwide and there’s nothing at the grocery store, is everyone going to run to gold and silver?

Will that be the savior?

It certainly wasn’t during the ‘Texas Freeze’. Not even on the list of must-haves.

The next planned event(s) are in plain sight for those who can see.

Mega drought in the corn belt (whether real or not), power substation blows up in Houston (that one was real) and planned destruction (or total control) of semi-trailer shipping (also real).

It’s the food supply and infrastructure first; then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Wells Fargo incident; inflation has likely run its course.

The dollar (and bonds) are in strong upside reversals; gold and sliver are (still) inversely correlated to those markets.

Inflation is credit expansion. Deflation is credit destruction. That’s where we are now.

Analysis: Silver

It’s the job of the mainstream financial media to make sure as many as possible are on the wrong side of the trade.

They have done well with the ‘inflation’ narrative.

Uneducated Economist puts it well; price increases are the result of supply constriction not inflation.

Which brings us to silver.

The weekly close of silver proxy SLV, has the ‘short squeeze’ already complete.

Shortages of product, continued inflation pummeling by the press, have not moved the metal higher; that’s the ‘tell’, something’s wrong.

Wells Fargo has kicked off the next round; deflation or deflation impulse.

One has to be prepared; silver may (even if only for a few days or weeks) head down to below where it started the squeeze.

Even to single digits … $9/oz., anyone?

If that happens, it means that gold and silver are being dumped onto the market while everyone’s scrambling for food, water and protection.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

‘Ripple Effect’

12:23 p.m., EST

Wells Fargo: Just the start?

The short answer is probably yes; but that’s only one problem.

Everyone’s subject to ‘normalcy bias‘ as Nissam Taleb puts it; Today’s like yesterday and tomorrow will be like today.

The news on Wells Fargo shows how quickly that can change.

Here’s a YouTube link; one man’s assessment on what happens now.

He proposes a ‘ripple effect’.

Events have been set in motion; not necessarily immediately but it has started nonetheless.

Market Positioning:

So, here we are going into the weekend.

Does anyone want to be long the market at this point (not advice, not a recommendation)?

There must be some that do as we’re still at elevated levels.

The trade approach implemented on this site (i.e., positioning short), takes into account and actually plans for a ‘disconnect’.

Only the inexperienced or naïve think (at this time in market history) they can get out as easily as they got in; i.e. day and swing trading.

Analysis: SPBIO (LABD):

We’ll start close in first and look at the hourly LABD:

Price action has come back to test the boundary (blue line).

As frustrating as it might seem (and it is), this is normal market behavior. The market itself has to define who is in control; bulls or bears.

It’s never ending.

That’s why a case has been built on the fundamental side; why biotech is subject to a massive implosion.

That backdrop, is being supported (little by little) with price action and thus, helps keep the mind focused.

If we pull out to the daily, we see the familiar trend-line(s):

We’re at another danger point. Price action can go either way.

If LABD pivots higher from here, it’s one more confirmation that we’re trending higher (SPBIO, lower) into our October-exit timeframe (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.