Category Archives: DHI

The Seven-Year ‘Wedge’

December 15, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, 2007 - 2008, Biotech, Bonds, DHI, Interest Rates, LABD, LABD-24-16, SPBIO, TLT, XBI Tags: , , , ,

Massive Top Formation

D.R. Horton, (DHI) is the largest cap in the Residential Construction Sector (www.tc2000.com).

During the last blow-up (2005 – 2008), DHI, declined top-to-bottom over -91%.

Will it be different this time?

One thing that’s likely, the next implosion could be hit with widespread market and broker outages (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last (notable) time was here.

As far as known, feel free to comment to the contrary, this site’s the only one that incorporates outage potential (and reality) into its trading plan.

Case in point is this link.

The firm’s trade records show, on that Monday, the account was short: LABD-24-16.

The broker outage and panic helped the position. The trade was closed on August 8th, with a profit of 11.15%.

Enough said, let’s move on.

D.R. Horton DHI, Monthly

There it is, seven-years in the making.

We’re at the lower wedge boundary now.

Recently, bonds (TLT) had a minor move higher (rates lower), lasting two-weeks.

However, last week, TLT reversed down and eclipsed the previous two-weeks of gains.

Rates are now moving higher … again.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

D.R. Horton Takes A Hit

October 29, 2024 By in DHI, DRV, DRV-24-06, IYR, Real Estate

Then, Commercial Battles At Trendline

As of this post, D. R. Horton is down about -10.5%, in early trading.

Evidently, the market did not like the earnings release.

It’s too late to position for downside in DHI; are there other opportunities?

Let’s look at the commercial sector, IYR

Real Estate, IYR, Daily

Reference the last post (and others) for an overall view.

We’re still in the possible ‘throw-over’ discussed in this update.

Positioning:

Noted in the sidebar, (trade) action has already been taken:

DRV-24-06: Entry at 24.22, Stop @ 23.88, ‘risk’ 0.34-pts (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

D.R. Horton ‘Rolls Over’

February 17, 2024 By in DHI, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Interest Rates, NVDA, QQQ, Real Estate, SLV, SOXX, SPY, TLT, ZeroHedge

When Real Estate Goes …

It’s been said, ‘when real estate goes, everything goes’.

Like a slow-motion train wreck, since late January, this site’s been watching the (potential) topping activity of D.R. Horton, DHI.

Now, DHI is reversing; coincident with the housing starts collapse, link here.

D.R. Horton, DHI Weekly Close

We’re right at the top of the ‘terminating wedge’.

Downside penetration and test will provide confirmation of the reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

The major market indices appear to be topping out as well.

The SOXX, may have reversed. Trading was ‘outside-down’ during yesterday’s session.

The SPY, and QQQ, also posted outside-down.

The potential Nvidia, NVDA reversal (link here) shows that so far, that high has not been exceeded.

Rates Up, Not Down

Adding gasoline to the fire, part of this site’s strategy is rates are going higher, not lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

So far, we see that’s true with long bonds (TLT) reversing to the downside, yet again.

And Then … Gold

Let’s not leave out the latest bullish report on gold (and silver), link here.

Notice the bias … that silver’s cheap relative to gold.

How about the massive, multi-year, ‘non-confirmation‘ between gold and the other monetary metals.

If it was real 1980s style inflation, everything would be moving up in tandem … which it is not; something else is going on.

Is the mining sector, GDX, GDXJ, anticipating a price decline in gold?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

DHI Bounce … Will It Hold?

February 3, 2024 By in DHI, Real Estate, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Friday’s Action: ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust’

There’s a lot of ‘waiting’ in the markets; waiting for the right time, the right set-up.

The last update on D.R. Horton (DHI) said to watch for a test of resistance and possible Fibonacci time correlation.

Well, we got the test.

As for Fibonacci, it shifted to a potential low-to-high sequence; the low on January 24th, to the high on Friday, was 8-Days.

Friday’s action was a minor ‘spring-to-up-thrust. 

The prior session low was penetrated as well as the high with an overall lower close.

All of which brings us to the chart.

D.R. Horton, DHI, Weekly

Looking at the chart, it’s self-explanatory.

We’re in a terminating wedge that’s in a ‘throw-over’.

If price action gets below the upper wedge boundary, it’s a confirmation. That in turn, would suggest much lower prices ahead (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note the massive down-thrust. We have to go all the way back to the ‘event’, to see anything similar.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech “Bottled Air”

January 31, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DHI, Federal Reserve, LABD, SPBIO, Uneducated Economist, XBI

Nothing (or not much) Holding It Up

We’re still a few hours away from the Fed announcement and it’s already high anxiety in the market.

D.R., Horton (DHI) has retraced about 38% of its move and is testing the underside of breakdown resistance.

Over on the ‘Little, or no P/E’ side of the market, biotech XBI is coiling, building (downside) potential in its own on-going reversal.

Biotech XBI, Daily

The last update on biotech XBI (link here), said to watch for a false breakout.

The chart shows the result. The breakout did not last; we’re congesting just below resistance (blue line).

The latest post from Uneducated Economist talks about the potential for lower rates, i.e., probabilities are low.

Incorporating that possibility into the above analysis, it suggests the XBI move from last November to the end of December, is essentially built on “bottled air” (not advice, not a recommendation).

The retail side of the market appears to be positioned long, expecting lower rates.

What happens if that does not happen?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Potential Short: D.R. Horton

January 27, 2024 By in DHI, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Real Estate, ZeroHedge 3 Comments

Watch For Retrace

We’ve all heard, it’s 80% planning and 20% trading.

So it is, with D.R. Horton (DHI).

As a reminder, this site addresses strategic positioning first, then tactics, and then focus. See the About section for more.

Strategy Review

Unless the charts say otherwise, rates are going higher, not lower. Gold and silver will likely go lower first, before going higher, supply destruction and resulting price increases will continue (not advice, not a recommendation).

D.R. Horton: Possible Retrace

One of two scenarios are likely. 

DHI could continue its decline, straightaway. Monday’s open could be gap-down, posting down, no looking back.

The next scenario, a retrace to test underside of resistance. As the chart below shows, that underside is right at 38.2%.

DHI, Daily

The chart presents ‘potential’ only. If the market is well behaved, a retrace to test is a reasonable expectation.

If there’s a retrace, Fibonacci Day 8, from the 1/22/24, high is this coming Wednesday, the 31st.

That day just so happens to correlate with the Fed interest rate announcement due out at 2:00 p.m., EST.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Rates Rising … Miners Critical

January 25, 2024 By in DHI, DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Interest Rates, JDST, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Then, The Real Estate Bubble

The elephant in the room:

Rates are not going lower, they’re going higher; sooner rather than later (not advice, not a recommendation).

Yesterday, ZeroHedge reported the 5-yr auction was nasty with rates rising to near recent highs.

Today, we have yet another supply disruption impacting so-called ‘inflation’.

Couple that with an apparent real estate implosion.

DH Horton (DHI) down nearly – 12% in just days and holding steady in the pre-market session.

It looks like the bubble party is (finally) over.

Gold Miners To Catch Bid?

The miners are at another critical juncture.

The Juniors GDXJ, are up in the pre-market session (8:00 a.m., EST) and may be catching a flight-to-safety bid as parts of the markets top out and/or reverse.

That flight to safety may not last long as we’ll see below.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

Trading is up about 1% or 0.32 pts in the pre-market.

GDXJ, price action is at The Danger Point®. 

We are either in a reversal (Wyckoff spring) set-up or just a pause before posting lower.

If it’s a rally, the target area is shown (magenta oval); corresponding to a 61.8% retrace.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.