Category Archives: Federal Reserve

Health Care Reversal … Example

May 6, 2025 By in Federal Reserve, Health Care, Interest Rates, Oil, Oil & Gas, Positions, XLV, XLV-25-03, XOP 3 Comments

Looking For The Oil Patch

The Healthcare Sector (XLV) has reversed hard to the downside.

The set-up: Blue line resistance, penetrated during a breakout, then failing.

That’s what we’re looking for in Oil Sector, XOP.

While we wait, XOP looks to be quite weak, and the breakout may never come.

Tomorrow, we have the Fed announcement. That might provide some XOP upside, however temporary (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Stop, Drop, And Roll

April 30, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, Federal Reserve, Semiconductors, SOXX, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Then, There’s Carvana

The SOXX, hit resistance, stopped, dropped, and could be rolling over for more downside … or not.

Maybe there’s something else developing.

Something like a set-up to penetrate resistance, creating a Wyckoff Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

The magenta dashed line is the 38.2%, retrace for the entire downside move; from the top on July 11th, 2024, to the lows on April 7th.

Note the potential Fibonacci time correlation, just before the Fed announcement on May 7th.

As with Carvana (CVNA), we’re nearing a potential inflection.

Also note, Carvana has dropped from the current resistance area (around 240) making that level the more probable area for an up-thrust, rather than yesterday’s 310-location (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia Target

March 15, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX

Then, The Fed

There are four more trading days left to compete the bar on the 8-Day, chart of Nvidia, below.

What are the chances it continues on higher into resistance?

If it does, it’s the 50% retrace of the entire move from highs on January 7th, to the lows of March 11th.

Then, The Fed

We have a Fed meeting this coming week, 18th and 19th.

Could any announcement be used as an ‘excuse’ to propel the market higher … straight into resistance?

Nvidia Fibonacci 8-Day

Who uses an 8-Day chart?

Not anybody I know 🙂

If Nvidia continues to rally, one would expect the SOXX, to move higher as well … potentially creating yet another short opportunity (not advice, not a recommendation).

Lastly, Ed Dowd

Here’s a link to a recent interview. At time stamp 37:48, he spills the beans on The Fed.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A.I. … From Bad to Worse

January 29, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-03, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, ZeroHedge

Adjusting The Trendline

Now, all-of-a-sudden, it’s a ‘thing’:

DeepSeek Breaks the AI Paradigm, link here.

YeaR OF THe SeeK…DeeP SeeK, link here.

The Competency Crash, link here.

DeepSeek AI App Demonstrates Pro-CCP Bias, Influence, link here.

The list is seemingly endless. Time for everybody to pile-on to the new narrative.

However, it does beg the question, Isn’t ‘The Thing‘ somewhere on I-10, in Arizona? 🙂

Getting back to reality, chief cook and bottle washer Nvidia, we’re going to adjust the trendline (just a bit) from yesterday’s update.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

The objective is, maintain short, monitor the trend for potential break (and exit), wherever and whenever that may be (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s important to note, yesterday’s action was Spring-to-Up-Thrust; penetration of the prior day’s low and high.

Then, The Fed

Also note, we have the Fed coming up with more shenanigans in about two hours (as of 12:03 p.m., EST).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate Rout … Dead Ahead?

January 26, 2025 By in DIA, Dow 30, DRV, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, IYR, Nasdaq, QQQ, Real Estate, S&P, S&P 500, SPY 1 Comment

Break, Test … and … Pause

Of course, in the markets, no one knows for sure.

However, what we do know as shown below, real estate IYR, has formed a terminating wedge.

In addition, it’s broken down from that wedge and is now testing the underside.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

With the Dow, S&P, and QQQs, at or near all-time-highs, real estate’s a laggard; posting its all-time-high, years ago.

Last week was a narrow-range bar.

On a daily basis, price action attempted to move higher twice and has retreated (from that attempt) each time.

Then, The Fed

Let’s not forget we have a Fed meeting coming up on Tuesday and Wednesday, this week.

Popcorn at the ready.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … Retrace Higher, For Now

November 24, 2024 By in Federal Reserve, Gold & Silver, SLV Tags: , ,

… ‘The Most Likely Event’

One week ago, the update on silver (SLV), ended with this (emphasis added):

“Therefore, the most likely event, is an attempt to retrace the prior four weeks of down action (not advice, not a recommendation).”

As the chart shows, that’s exactly what happened.

One important item (so far) is the weakness.

Silver Daily with Fibonacci Retrace

The retrace higher, closed near the Fibonacci 23.6%, level.

As can be seen, the market is following a Fibonacci time sequence for its pivot locations.

The next count is ‘Day 8’, which just so happens to be this coming Tuesday’s release of Fed minutes and one day before the PCE, is released.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘No Hurry’ for Lower Rates

November 17, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, TBT, TLT Tags: , , , ,

Of Course, Not

The Fed’s not about to tell anyone, what they (really) do, is follow the bond market.

When looking at ETF proxy for long bonds, TLT (below), one could infer, by late January, Fed rates may start going back up (not advice, not a recommendation).

Since we’ve entered a time where long secret (or obscured) truths are now revealed, it might just be, the public discovers (en masse) the emperor has no clothes.

Steve Poplar at ‘The Poplar Report’ has it figured out (time stamp 12:00, link here).

With that, let’s look at the bond market and see what it’s saying about itself.

Long Bonds, TLT, Weekly Close

Price action appears to be breaking down out of a wedge.

The potential?

Higher interest rates going into year-end (not advice, not a recommendation).

The result: fewer autos sold/financed, fewer homes sold/financed and possibly much less spending on Christmas.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … Another False Breakout

November 7, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Gold & Silver, Great Depression 2.0, Interest Rates, SLV, TLT

Bearish Case Continues

Silver seems to be like a stubborn mule, refusing to launch higher.

It was curious to see both silver and gold sell-off after Tuesday’s ‘results’.

When looking at the SLV, chart, the bearish case continues to build (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver SLV, Weekly

We’ve got a clear bearish divergence on MACD, just about to ‘cross-over’ to the downside.

The economy (implosion) may already be baked into the cake, no matter what anyone does.

Interest rates continue to scream higher, bonds down (TLT), no matter what the Fed does.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Rate-ing Game

November 2, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, TLT, ZeroHedge Tags: , ,

Rates Spike Big Time … Who Could Have Guessed?

Let’s use the ‘Way Back’ machine with Mr. Peabody and return to this post.

Back in mid-August, that analysis presented rates heading higher (not lower), as more probable.

One month after that, this update showed a ‘terminating wedge’ in the bond market, TLT.

Now, two and a half months after the first post, the rate spike’s hitting the news.

Once again, you have to ‘subscribe‘ to find out what’s already happened. Hmmm

Contrary Indicator

The fact rates are just now in the mainstream, could (as we’ll see below) indicate a potential hesitation of downside or an upside retrace.

Long Bonds TLT, Daily Close

We’ll start first with the original ‘wedge’ post.

Now, for the updated version.

Obviously, there’s a lot going on in the chart.

Price action blew-through the measured move and has (potentially) culminated in a downside wash-out.

Or, behind Door Number 2, it could be a signal, rates are about to press-on higher like a juggernaut (not advice, not a recommendation)

The Fed Rides Again

Remember our last post on the Fed (possibly reversing the reversal), said to get your popcorn ready.

Looks like the show’s about to start.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … Stretched

October 21, 2024 By in Bonds, DRV, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, IYR, Real Estate, SRS, TLT, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Massive Wedge Pattern

Bonds (TLT) reversed on 9/17/24, the day before the Fed ‘cut’ and never looked back.

Rates continue to rise.

Meanwhile, real estate (IYR), has been whistling past the graveyard; that is, until now.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

If the wedge is in-effect and we’re in a throw-over about to return into the pattern, it signals a very bearish condition (not advice, not a recommendation).

Even the illustrious financial press is starting to catch on that something’s not quite right. 🙂

Of course, you have to ‘subscribe’ for information like this.

As for this site, the current (bond) reversal was first identified and discussed, here.

Back then …

“Looking at the Fed calendar, link here, it’s a very interesting date; ‘the day after’ November 5th.

Let’s see if the ‘rate cut’ is immediately reversed (not advice, not a recommendation).”

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279