Category Archives: GLD

Gold is Down … What ?

June 13, 2022 By in CNBC, David Weis, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Supposed ‘Safe-Haven’, Goes South

With this morning’s turmoil, gold “should” be higher, right?

Before we even get started, everyone needs to know or be reminded, the word “should” is a ruse; it’s a trap.

Just like there’s no crying in baseball, there’s no “should” in the markets.

Instead, we replace that word with any of the following: Expectation, probability, empirical, set-up, and not the least of which is, ‘price action’.

Case In Point

Gold is down hard but it should be higher.

Coming from that perspective, then leaves you scratching your head, attempting to figure out ‘why’ gold has not moved higher.

With that, off we go on a never-ending rabbit trail having full encouragement of the financial press; making sure you never find the answer.

On the flip side, coming from a Wyckoff perspective, we look at gold (GLD) and ask the following:

What is the market saying about itself?

That brings us to Friday’s action and the chart of gold (GLD), below.

Gold (GLD), Daily

Long-time users of this site may instantly recognize the set-up.

To help make it more clear, we’ll go down to the hourly chart and mark it up.

Gold (GLD) Hourly

There we have it.

The repeating pattern of “Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

Let’s go back to the daily and put in the same notations.

Gold (GLD), Daily

Following on with this morning’s action we have this.

Price action has already posted a new daily low; adding confirmation, the trend remains down.

The fact there was heavy volume this past Friday, sets the hook even deeper into the bulls.

This action, up-thrust plus volume, may result in yet another sustained pivot to the downside.

Summary

It took me twenty-years of diligent search to eventually find the answers to market behavior.

That answer came in 2007, in the form of Wyckoff analysis and the late David Weis, with his video, linked here.

I was fortunate to be mentored by him before he became somewhat of a star … having a waiting list a mile long.

After that, was the constant study of his daily market updates for more nuggets of wisdom.

In a nutshell:

Gold (GLD) reversed today, because price action got itself into an up-thrust condition after launching from a spring set-up.

That’s it.

There’s no CNBC, no Fed, no Fast Money, no Russians, no Hyper-Inflation; just the market, itself.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miner Reversal … 7-Weeks Later

June 10, 2022 By in GDXJ, Genesis 41, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Wyckoff

Strategy Update … GDXJ

Wyckoff and Fibonacci analysis allowed the reversal of gold miners GDXJ, to be identified to the week and then, to the day.

A quick review of this post, is the reversal on a weekly basis and this one is a follow-up, showing Fibonacci correlation on a daily basis.

If we want to go way-back, this report, shows the miners were not in a bull market and have not been for some time; for years, actually.

That does not mean there were no trades for upside or downside; there were.

However, from a strategy standpoint, gold miners are not bullish.

So, let’s look at the Junior Miners GDXJ, as it’s the weakest in the sector.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly Chart

Un-marked

First Mark-up

The reversal is at Fibonacci 89-weeks, plus one day.

However, it’s the next chart that’s more disconcerting for the bulls.

Price action reversed right at a Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace; indicating severe weakness (if it holds).

The two black lines above the 23.6%, are 38.2%, and 50%, respectively.

The next chart zooms into the reversal area.

This week has already posted a new weekly low, providing additional confirmation of the reversal.

As gold, silver and the associated miners reverse lower, we have news reports of precious metals purchases going off the charts.

Where was everybody in 2001, as gold was bottoming?

That’s, 2001 – to – 2022, a Fibonacci, 21-years.

Which brings us to the next point.

The YouTube “Herd”, is Forming

Several YouTube sites that have been monitored for years, have recently blown-up, passing 100,000 subscribers; more than a few are past 200,000 or higher.

Recently, they have started giving each other ‘shout-outs’, to indicate their approval of that particular site’s ‘content’.

Viewer, Beware

By definition, the ‘herd’, does not have the right answer.

Each one is now monitoring what the other one is doing; they are all, influencing themselves.

The only way to have a hope of getting unique insight is to remain aloof. Wyckoff described this exact phenomenon in his autobiography.

He had very wealthy clients that wanted to get closer (unlimited) access to him. To this overture, he refused.

He isolated himself and remained cloistered.

Summary

Thus far, the analysis of gold ‘changing hands‘ remains intact. Gold continues to be well off its highs; silver is not anywhere close.

Strategy, Tactics, and Focus.

The Junior Miner’s reversal can’t be disputed … there it is.

If precious metals and the miners are not responding to all the ‘money printing;’, then something else’s afoot that’s not being revealed to us in the proletariat.

That ‘something’, is probably starvation … which gets us back to Genesis 41; corn and grain come first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … After The Reversal

May 21, 2022 By in Activist Post, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Harry Dent, Jerimiah Babe, NEM 2 Comments

‘Changing of Hands’

It’s a significant, if not major event, when one market participant (collectively) hands off the trading vehicle to another.

In a decline, that usually means the ‘average investor’, the least disciplined, least knowledgeable, gives up and hands off to the professionals; the ‘strong hands’.

In a blow-off top, the reverse is true.

The professionals lead the ignorant along with whatever narrative is necessary so that enough volume is created to successfully exit positions.

The changing of hands for gold and gold miners, was identified on this site, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here, starting over two-and-a-half months ago.

The analysis was consistent throughout; we are not in a long-term, sustainable, bull market. That stance applied most specifically to gold miners GDX, and GDXJ.

For that assessment to change, price action itself would have to change character; not the lagging momentum indicators, moving averages, price oscillators and so on that are themselves, defined by price action.

So, let’s take a look at what gold (GLD) is saying about itself.

Gold (GLD), Weekly Chart

First, the un-marked chart.

Next, we see a medium to long term trendline that’s been decisively broken and tested.

Getting closer-in, we can see the oscillation about the line, the break and subsequent test (with reversal).

What’s Next?

Well, that brings us to Harry Dent.

Love him or hate him. Here he is, offering up a perspective that’s not going to be popular.

How can gold (GLD) decline from here?

Let’s take a look.

If the wedge above is in-effect, if it’s the dominant factor at this point, then a break depending on location would take GLD down to about 130-ish.

If that happens, it will be a big event … down to approximately $1,300/oz.

However, it’s what may come next, that will be totally unexpected.

It’s interesting, the wedge in blue has a measured move target right to the bottom of the larger wedge in magenta.

To get below $900/oz, will be a very different place.

With that in mind, this site has presented time and again, we’re in an unprecedented world-event.

‘Normal’ is not coming back … ever.

Awake, or Not

Jerimiah Babe, in one of his latest videos hints there’s a strange vibe to what’s happening: Time stamp 5:20,

‘There’s something going on here …’

The Fed may actually be telling us the truth … just not in the way we expect.

You have to be awake to read between the lines.

Inflation may indeed be ‘transitory’ as they say because consumer demand is going to evaporate.

Evaporate not because the consumer can’t afford it, but because there are, or will be, no consumers.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279


Failure, Success: GLD & IYR

May 2, 2022 By in DRV-22-02, GLD, Gold & Silver, IYR, Livermore, Real Estate, The Maverick of Wall Street, Wyckoff 3 Comments

When A Spring Set-Up, Fails

The upside reversal (spring) set-up for gold, has failed.

When a high probability bullish scenario fails to materialize, it signals a market with potential to completely fall apart.

Nobody expects a major reversal in gold … nobody.

Yet … there it is

We’ve had the huge volume on March 8th, that looks more and more as changing of hands; from strong to weak.

Now, the apparent reversal has failed.

Anything can happen but at this juncture, the highs of March are getting farther and farther away.

Gold (GLD), Weekly Chart

Gold could always right itself and reverse from here.

We’ll keep an eye on it but let’s move on to a trade set-up that’s working; Real Estate, IYR and leveraged inverse, DRV.

Leveraged Inverse (-3X) Real Estate, DRV

The expectation for this morning’s session, was for IYR to retrace and test Friday’s breakdown.

It’s not happening … or at least, not at this point.

Wyckoff (along with Livermore) were obsessed with ‘what is’ and not what ‘should’ be.

The ‘what is’ at this point, IYR appears to be in a swift down move with minimal upside.

Trading actions have therefore been adjusted accordingly.

The chart of inverse DRV shows two entries marked as “1” and “2” (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this juncture, the short position in IYR via DRV (DRV-22-02), has been fully established.

The stop is now moved up to the session low @ DRV 37.21

Summary

At time stamp 8:10 at this link, The Maverick shows how far behind the curve interest rates are to what’s happened with Fed actions in the past.

If they repeat past behaviors, that of moving rates higher, it’s likely to be a massive shock.

The last place to be when interest rates rise sharply, is real estate; the most illiquid asset of all.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Set To Rally

May 1, 2022 By in GLD, Gold & Silver, Spring-to-Up-Thrust 1 Comment

GLD, In Spring Position

It’s about an hour before the Sunday futures open and gold (GLD), is in spring position; set to move higher.

The daily chart of GLD below, shows the action for the past three years. The chart following gets closer in to identify the set-up.

Gold (GLD), Daily Chart

Closer in with the spring set-up marked.

We know that empirically, if a spring set-up is viable and in-effect, it has a tendency to go straight into an up-thrust.

The chart below locates a potential up-thrust zone should the price action launch into a spring.

If gold breaks to the upside, be prepared for another round of bull mania hysteria … all the while, the structure of the overall markets continues to fall-away.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold To Rally ?

April 25, 2022 By in GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST-22-04, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

In Position For Upside Test

As long as almost no-one catches on to the Fibonacci time correlations playing out in real time, they’ll continue to have validity.

First, some housekeeping.

The downside action in Junior Miners GDXJ, was a vicious move; from top to bottom (thus far) it dropped over – 17.5%, in just six trading days.

This type of collapse was not really expected as YouTube and ZeroHedge are still filled with the manic bulls.

The short position, JDST-22-04, launched higher as a result.

Taking advantage of the hysteria, that position was closed out today (not advice, not a recommendation).

The expectation is for some type of relief rally in gold and the miners.

Gain on the whole event, which included three entries and three exits was around +24.1%

Moving on to the chart.

Gold (GLD) Daily

We’re at Fibonacci Day 34 and have just slightly penetrated support (blue line).

That puts GLD, in Wyckoff Spring position … although the push below support was not really enough to expect a rally (if it occurs) to go very far.

Today’s action opened up a significant gap and it just so happens, the close of Friday’s bar (April 22nd) is right at 23.6%, retrace.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Same Then, Same Now … Gold

April 21, 2022 By in GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-22-04, ZeroHedge

Common Characteristics

Every market has its own personality, its own characteristics.

After working the gold mining indices GDX, more specifically GDXJ, a repeating trendline tendency was observed in leveraged inverse, JDST.

That repeating market behavior, shown below.

Junior Miners, Leveraged Inverse, JDST

The un-marked daily chart, first

Repeating trendlines

The next several charts zoom-in on specific areas.

Set The Stop

And walk away …

As the tagline in this post shows with JDST-22-04, we’re already short the Junior Miners via JDST (not advice, not a recommendation).

The current stop, is set at yesterday’s low of 6.61.

Depending on price action today, that stop will be moved up to the recent low (presently @ JDST 6.855).

Summary

GDXJ, reversed at Fibonacci 55-Days, 13-Weeks from the January 28th, low.

As presented in this update, we’re also Fibonacci 89-Weeks (+1), peak-to-peak.

Time correlation coupled with price action, along with incessant financial press ‘gold standard‘ narrative, gives a near perfect backdrop for a significant downside reversal.

The trade may or may not work out … price action is the final arbiter. However, we’ve already shown the trend characteristic of the market.

A simple but effective way to manage the trade is to follow that trend, raise the stop accordingly and exit when stopped out (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners … Downside Reversal

April 20, 2022 By in Food Supply, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST-22-04 4 Comments

Wait … What?

A major gold (miner) reversal?

Is that possible?

The last update on the subject highlighted a multi-decade Fibonacci time correlation.

Going all the way back to the 2001 lows for gold, there’s a correlation of 21-years, 89-weeks and 55-days as it relates to the Junior Mining Index, GDXJ.

This past Monday, 55-Days from the January 28th, low, GDXJ, posted a reversal.

The chart below, is an updated version of the one presented on Thursday, the 14th.

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

The bearish MACD has completed with a momentum tick to the downside. Price action reversed exactly at Fibonacci 55-Days.

Getting closer-in, the chart below shows we’re at minor support.

It’s early in today’s session about an hour after the open.

Price action’s already pushing down on the support level, posting a new daily low.

If GDXJ continues lower and decisively penetrates support, the expectation is for some kind of upward test in the next session(s).

For the Junior Gold Miners, GDXJ, we’re at the danger point.

Obvious stop levels for a short position would be yesterday’s high or Monday’s high (not advice not a recommendation).

Summary

With so many convinced gold and the miners must move higher as a result of ‘inflation’, a significant, sustained reversal would be completely unexpected.

Of course, what’s not being discussed (except in alternate media) is the intentional destruction of the food supply and the supply chain.

That’s at least a significant contributor to the rising prices.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold & Silver, Timeline’s End ?

April 15, 2022 By in 1929, Activist Post, China, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Texas Freeze, ZeroHedge 11 Comments

Government, Is Always Last

The laws enacted by the Government to prevent the crash of 1929, were passed in 1934.

So, now we have at least two states (here and here) eliminating sales tax on the purchase of gold and silver.

Where were they way back in 2001, as the metals were bottoming?

Interestingly (then again, not) it’s a Fibonacci 21-years, nearly to the day, from that 2001 bottom.

That’s not the only Fibonacci correlation being observed.

Let’s take a look at Junior Miners GDXJ, and see if it too, has a Fibonacci event.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly

We’re just one week short of Fibonacci 13-Weeks, from the late January 2022, bottom.

One extra week is well within margin of error when considering the 89-Week timeframe as shown.

But wait, there’s more.

Looking at the daily chart, not only is there a bearish MACD divergence, we’re also just one day shy before it’s a Fibonacci 55-Days, from the 1/28/22, bottom.

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

Can it all line up this perfectly?

Well, it can if no one is watching; that’s where the crowd and the government come in.

Summary

It’s a fairly safe assessment, nobody expects a downside reversal … nobody.

Even though time and again, we have clues that opportunity for precious metals may come later not sooner (not advice, not a recommendation).

The lockdowns in Shanghai with subsequent starvation and bartering (here and here), show under such conditions, precious metals are nowhere on the list.

Closer to home, the Texas Freeze of 2021, exposed that (lack of metals demand) as well.

Housing prices are starting to ease-off as well as prices for used cars.

Gold (GLD) may have reached its peak, March 8th, this year. Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Putin’s Gold … Paradigm, Not

April 10, 2022 By in Corn, Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, Gold & Silver, ice-age-farmer, Putin, Russia, Ukraine, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 9 Comments

‘Nothing New Under The Sun’

Remember the ‘Silver Short-Squeeze‘?

How the little guy was finally going to ‘put it to the man’; forcing the SLV, ETF, to admit they don’t have enough physical silver to cover?

How did that work out?

Same as it always has … it was a non-event.

Now, we have a supposed paradigm shift the ‘world’ has yet to fully process.

Paradigm, Not

The ‘paradigm’ link above, promulgates the intended or mistaken notion, there are two sides to world events.

Sorry Charlie, operations at world government level(s) are working in how shall we say, ‘lockstep’?

Nothing is a surprise.

So it is with gold. At least it is at this juncture while always keeping in mind, anything can happen.

Gold, GLD, Weekly Close

The message of the weekly close, is straightforward.

We’re at the danger point. The location where it won’t take much to move price in either direction.

If we really are in a ‘new paradigm’, by definition, gold (GLD) must move to new highs.

If other governments world-wide are shifting to gold-backed currencies, by definition, demand will increase and move prices higher.

Higher by not just a one-day blip of 10 – 20 points or even a hundred … but thousands.

It could happen.

In the longer time frame, that may indeed be the case. However, at this point, we have something else afoot.

The Famine, Cometh

Gold has never been the same since the Derecho of 2020.

In fact, that was the pivot point for both gold and corn which are now, inversely correlated.

Here are just a few recent links concerning the food supply; here, here, here and here.

That last one … what a great way to cover the outcome of this link.

It’s a slow-motion train-wreck that’s obvious to anyone that can see.

Summary

Just like there was no ‘new economy’ during the Dot-Com bubble, there’s no ‘new paradigm’, now (not advice, not a recommendation).

The focus remains on what the price action, the market, is saying about itself.

At this juncture, GLD, is at the danger point.

The presence of huge volume during the week of March 11th, suggests a changing of hands from strong to weak.

That in turn, points probability to weak upside (if any) and more likely sideways, or down.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279