Category Archives: Gold Miners

Gold … Sell The News?

March 16, 2025 By in David Weis, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-05, Positions, SILJ, SLV, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Hours Away

We’re just hours away from the Sunday futures open.

Yesterday, military attacks on Houthi rebels have commenced; links here, here, and here.

Middle East conflict escalates.

The question is, will the markets see it that way?

Will it be ‘escalation’, with gold futures ever higher, or is it ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’?

If we’re looking at potential gold/silver related downside, then let’s review the miners; they’ve been in a bear market for nearly five years (not advice, not a recommendation).

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Weekly Close

Before getting to the right side of the chart, let’s start with the ‘Time’s Up’, arrow; a reversal and decline over 50%.

That ‘arrow’ corresponds to this post.

At this point, gold and the miners appear to be stretched with silver currently in non-confirmation.

If it was really (simple) inflation, it would be like the 1980s, with both moving in tandem.

Then & Now

With that, what has GDXJ, done in the past?

The chart itself shows us it tends to exhibit a repeating pattern of Wyckoff ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.

We may know within hours if gold, silver, and the miners, are going to reverse or launch into some kind of extended rally (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners … Breakout or Blowoff

March 13, 2025 By in GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-05, Positions

We Might Know Soon

The last update thought we’d have a gap-higher open in the miners GDXJ.

Well, we got more than that 🙂

The chart at this link shows the action for the corresponding gold contract.

Commodity bull moves typically end with a blow-off spike higher. Is that what we got today? (not advice, not a recommendation).

Full article is here.

With that let’s look at the miners.

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

Price action formed a ‘spring’ towards the end of last year.

Whether or not we have repeating pattern, ‘up-thrust’, is unknown.

It’s important to note, gold is now over (approx.) $1,100/oz., above the level it was when this post was released.

Even with today’s action, the Junior Miners are still (well) below the price level for GDXJ, shown in that update, four years ago.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners … Go Deep

March 12, 2025 By in GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST 1 Comment

Deeper, on Retrace

This update on the miners GDXJ, said we’re close to a bearish divergence if the ETF makes a new high.

This update also said to watch for a new daily high, finishing with this:

“Before anyone gets overly bullish, let’s also keep in mind, the high print at the left of the chart in October of last year, is still below the print discussed in this post. over four years ago (not advice, not a recommendation).”

With today’s price action we could be ticks away from that anticipated new daily high (above the 2/20, 52.91).

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

Note the typical (average) 50%, retrace between blue lines, that was then followed by a deeper 61.8% retrace, from blue to magenta lines.

The last deep retrace to 61.8%, tells us supply is building even though price continues higher.

Best case scenario: Next session opens gap-higher, clearing out stops (buy and sell), creating price action instability (not advice, not a recommendation),

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Going Short … In Style

March 10, 2025 By in Dr. Elder, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Great Depression 2.0, ZeroHedge Tags: , , 1 Comment

Knowing When, To Be In Fashion

Out in the mainstream, they tell us the smart money (maybe, even retail) is selling, or selling short, here, here, here, here and here

There’s also recession talk, here; couple that with utter confusion, here.

Then, if we do have a ‘recession’ (or depression) it’s time to blame somebody, right?

As Dr. Elder said years ago (paraphrasing):

‘When there is a change the market, there’s a lot of turbulence before action settles into a definable trend.’

Taking everything in aggregate above, that could be where we are now.

In Style

Some of the links above, are still attempting to make a bullish argument.

For them, it’s not quite time to have a bearish stance. It’s not yet fashionable.

For this site however, every trade (453 of them) for last year, 2024 (ex. UNG), was to the short side (not advice, not a recommendation).

By the time, the bear has fully clawed the market (if or when), it’s most likely too late for any low-risk positioning.

One market that may be acting as a defensive move, are the miners, GDX, GDXJ.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

GDXJ, is either slipping away to the downside or it’s preparing for another attempt at higher prices.

At this point (1:12 p.m., EST), the support/axis line has not been decisively penetrated to the downside, suggesting probabilities are for higher prices (not advice, not a recommendation).

Before anyone gets overly bullish, let’s also keep in mind, the high print at the left of the chart in October of last year, is still below the print discussed in this post. over four years ago (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Then, Alcoa Is ‘Compressed’

March 9, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, AA, Basic Materials, Biotech, CVNA, GDX, GDXJ, Gold Miners, IYM, NEM, Prechter, RGLD, South Sea Bubble, SPBIO, XBI

Another One

Yesterday, biotech had moving average compression; today, it’s Alcoa.

In this case, we’ll present the monthly chart, showing the long-term picture.

As we’ll see, moving average compression is rare, especially when using the longer time-frames.

In the case of Alcoa (AA), you have to go all the way back to 1978, to find a similar event.

The Big Bubble

Referring to Prechter’s analysis link here, he states that we’re [potentially], in the largest asset bubble since the South Sea, over 300-years ago.

Let’s keep that in mind. Events are happening on such a massive scale; the typical observer may not be aware of the significance and/or the rarity.

Alcoa AA, Monthly

The zoom areas are side-by-side to show the similarity.

Expanding the chart and including the wedge notation, also shows price action at the lower boundary.

It should be noted, AA, is part of the ‘Basic Materials’ sector, with tracking ETF as IYM.

Included in the IYM components, is NEM, and RGLD; this sector is correlated with the miners, GDX, GDXJ.

Positioning

It’s the trader’s discretion as what to do at this point.

This site may or may not execute a direct short of Alcoa, just as it might do with Carvana (CVNA), and maybe others (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Trump’s ‘Not Looking’

March 7, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, 1987, 2007 - 2008, Biotech, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-04, LABD, LABD-25-02, Positions, SPBIO 3 Comments

Not Political … Just Fact

The last time we had a sustained multi-year meltdown (’07 – ’08), there was a ‘ban’ on short selling.

Since Trump is ‘strictly business’, will he try (or instruct the SEC) to save the market?

Based on this link, maybe not (not advice, not a recommendation).

If that’s true and there are no ‘saves’ this time around, then we’re in uncharted territory; at least since the ’87 crash.

Gold Miners ‘Bid’?

The rest of the market’s breaking down, but the miners are holding steady (sort-of). They look like there’re headed for at least one more push higher.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

We’re including the MACD, to show if there’s a new high above the 53.00 – level, it sets-up a (potential) bearish MACD divergence.

This coming Tuesday, is Fibonacci Day 8, from the February 28th lows.

Positioning

The short trade JDST-25-04, was stopped out early in the session. No other shorts are planned for this sector … yet (not advice, not a recommendation).

Short trade in biotech XBI, remains active as LABD-25-02, with stop at LABD 7.44 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners Hang In Thin Air

March 6, 2025 By in GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-03, Positions, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Push Above Resistance … Then Stop

As of this post (12:35 p.m., EST), the miners GDXJ, have pushed above resistance area noted in yesterday’s update

Then, they stalled.

With a backdrop of gold in the news incessantly, is there a short trade at this juncture?

Whether or not this is the place to make the bet remains to be seen. However, what we can see, is a push above resistance (Wyckoff Up-Thrust) and a narrow range bar.

That means short-side risk has been reduced (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

Short initiated via JDST, as JDST-25-03, with stop at the session low, currently JDST 19.93 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners Reduce (short) Risk

March 3, 2025 By in GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-02, Positions, Wyckoff

Less, Does Not Mean, None

When you’re at price extremes whether up or down, many times the ultimate direction is unknown.

You’ll know when you’re at that (on-the-edge) spot, if it’s like Wyckoff’s description from over a century ago:

‘It’s as if the weight of a feather can move the market in either direction’

The good part, today’s potential-now-actual scenario, was previously covered in this update:

“What we’re looking for in the coming week (best case) is to see continued GDXJ, upside to close the distance to the resistance area; thus reduce (but not eliminate) the risk.”

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Weekly

Actually, the risk is probably less than the 0.82-pts shown.

Price action would need to continue through resistance (blue line) to get to the stop; possibly giving ample time to exit a short if so positioned (not advice, not a recommendation).

As can be seen in the side-bar, a short has already been opened; executed early in the session using leveraged inverse fund JDST.

Trade: JDST-25-02, with stop at today’s low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Against The ‘Spin’

Positioning short is against the current mainstream ‘spin’ on why this sector has not launched higher.

You’ve heard it before, they call it a ‘buying opportunity’

This site refers to the non-confirmation of the miners (with gold at all-time highs) as “something wrong” 🙂

We’ll know soon enough.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners … Something’s Wrong

March 1, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-01, Positions 1 Comment

Gold To New Highs … Miners, Not

Gold continues to new all-time highs while miners post lower highs.

Something’s Wrong

It’s as if each new gold (GLD) high gives the excuse to take profits on GDX, GDXJ, or go short (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this juncture, with gold at (or near) new highs, Junior Miners GDXJ, have attempted to breakout above resistance twice, and so far, have failed.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly

The last update on GDXJ was off by a single day.

The next day, one more new daily high before reversal; short trade JDST-25-01, was closed early in that session (not advice, not a recommendation)

Note the tight price action just above resistance in the ‘2nd Attempt’; evidence of a struggle.

What we’re looking for in the coming week (best case) is to see continued GDXJ, upside to close the distance to the resistance area; thus reduce (but not eliminate) the risk.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners, Where Risk is Least

February 19, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-01, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-07, SOXX 2 Comments

Downside Pressure

When price action’s at The Danger Point®, it doesn’t take much to stop-out a trade.

That’s where GDX, GDXJ, are now (not advice, not a recommendation).

The prior update said to watch what happens during a potential upside retrace.

With GDXJ, so far, that retrace is weak; as of this post (1:30 p.m., EST), now printing lower but still above support.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

For a short position (using JDST), we have a tight stop (not advice, not a recommendation).

The bounce off support discussed in the prior update did not go far before reversing lower … where we are now.

One has to realize we’re back to the pundits screaming ‘hyperinflation’ as was the case over four years ago.

Gold (GLD) may indeed move on to higher prices.

However, for whatever reason, the mining sector continues its multi-year non-confirmation (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positions

Short entry on GDXJ via JDST as trade JDST-25-01, with stop at yesterday’s session low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately: The short in the SOXX via SOXS, has been closed.

If price action continues to exhibit buoyancy, if NVDA posts a new daily high (this week), it’s possible, as incredible as it may sound, NVDA may go on to new all-time highs (not advice, to a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279