Category Archives: Gold & Silver

When Costco Sells Gold

October 1, 2023 By in China, Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, serpentza, The List, The Speck, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

The Mother of All Contrary Indicators

This has to be it, right?

Selling gold in a supermarket; an expensive commodity, peddled to the least informed and least capitalized segment of the public.

Once that market’s saturated, who’s left?

Going Down Memory Lane

It’s been nearly three years since this post.

From a long-term strategy standpoint, this site has been consistent; it’s the food supply first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

The next shoe has yet to drop on how or what’s going to be used to extract (or confiscate) precious metals from the (stacking) proletariat.

With craziness by the day, anything can happen.

Gold: Turning Points & Technical

So far, it’s been three-for-three (here, here and here) identifying recent significant technical conditions and turning points for gold, GLD.

At this juncture, the dollar collapse, and the silver/gold bull launch are just not happening. It’s not there … something else is going on (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’re in the middle of a massive sovereign bankruptcy (Time Stamp 7:10) that’s never happened before.

What’s going on behind the scenes is not visible to us.

However, from a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, those (hidden) actions and decisions show up on the chart(s).

Contrary Indicator

Remember Baghdad Bob?

Constantly giving press conferences discussing the strength of the military campaign when the exact opposite was true.

It may be so with gold as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

The local supermarket has decided, after a 22-year long bull market, it’s ‘safe’ for profit.

The hapless public is now standing at the gold kiosk; with face-mask firmly secured, arm bandaged from the latest booster, EV FOB in hand (or pocket), hypnotized into yet another mania.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

NVDA … Testing The Reversal

August 14, 2023 By in GLD, Gold & Silver, NVDA, Positions, Prechter, South Sea Bubble, SOXS, SOXX 1 Comment

The ‘Downside’ Reversal

The AI, mania’s looking a lot like the hysterical gold bugs from years ago.

Just to remind everyone what it was like.

Gold links below are nearly two years old and $3,000/oz. gold is nowhere in sight:

Von Greyerz: Gold-O-Mania Is Coming!

Gold Breakout Imminent!

Gold shhh…

Gold Probes Multi-Month Highs

“$3000 In Months, Not Years”

Gold & The Dollar Soar

Gold & Crypto Surge

The AI Bubble … Past The Top?

Moving on, this post said as we reverse and head lower, expect the hysteria to increase.

You’ll have to be the judge on whether or not the hype has moved to the next level:

Jim Cramer Thinks

‘Pullback Will Be Short-Lived’

Nvidia jumps 6%

Chipmakers Rally

Tepper’s Appaloosa places big bets

UAE said to buy ‘thousands‘ of Nvidia GPUs

NVDA, Historical Chart

The weekly chart of NVDA from 1/15/99, to present, puts the situation into perspective.

Recall, from a previous post, Prechter indicates, we haven’t been at these extremes in over 300-years.

Positioning

It was a rough day to be short the Semiconductor sector via inverse fund SOXS (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, the position remains intact with Hard Stop unchanged @ 9.42.

In the after-hours (as of 7:03 p.m., EST), inverse fund SOXS continues to edge lower; currently trading @ SOXS 9.78.

The NVDA earnings report is moving ever closer.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas … Where’s The Rally?

August 13, 2023 By in GLD, Gold & Silver, Natural Gas, UNG, ZeroHedge 3 Comments

Flush-Out The ‘Disruption’ Trade

About a month after this post on Nat-Gas, we had this on ZeroHedge:

‘It’s Become Dangerously Big’

From the article, looks like I wasn’t the only one figuring on some type of semi-permanent, supply hit.

If everybody’s ready for it … it won’t happen at all or not when it’s expected to happen.

If there’s going to be some type of blow-up and ‘the market’ knows about it, those not part of the club, need to be flushed out.

With that, let’s look at Nat-Gas (UNG), and see if we’re close to a bullish set-up.

Natural Gas UNG, Daily Candle

At this juncture, UNG has reversed below resistance and may be heading back up for a test.

Note the low volume of Friday’s action. There’s not much commitment at this level.

I’ve cut straight to the chase, showing the ‘target’ area where there could be a low-risk long entry if the market gets to that level (not advice not a recommendation).

If UNG, heads lower yet again, it could be the last straw for the weak bulls, causing them to close out.

For a prior example on how ‘targets’ work, reference here and here on gold, GLD.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver’s Pivot … Debt Default?

August 12, 2023 By in Activist Post, China, Gold & Silver, Prechter, Silver Collapse, SLV, South Sea Bubble

SLV, Targeting Single Digits

Silver’s an industrial metal and that industry worldwide, is in full-blown collapse.

Maersk reports shipping trade implodes.

Warehouse vacancy space in California’s industrial sector is increasing and the consumer, may have finally spent themselves into oblivion.

Let’s throw on top, the food supply continues to contract just as forecast.

With all that, one can ask:

‘Just how’s silver going to enter into a bull market under these conditions?’

So far, since this post and this one, over two years ago, it hasn’t (not advice, not a recommendation).

A New Down Channel

Silver continues its bear market that started way back in April, of 2011.

However, early-May and late-July peaks in SLV, appear to confirm the right side of a new down channel.

Silver SLV, Monthly Candle

With successive hits on the right side, trending down, there appears to be a significant barrier to moving higher.

The next chart uses a standard Fibonacci projection tool, showing potential downside targets.

The critical area on the chart is the ‘23.6%’ projection to the SLV 19-area.

If price action retraces to this level and then starts to change character, it’s a possible bullish indication.

If not, and we push lower, SLV then continues on with its decade-long decline.

Sovereign Default … Waiting

There’s a lot of world-wide debt built up in the system.

China appears ready to collapse into a real estate depression … probably co-incident with our own.

Couple that with record level stock valuations, record margin borrowing and mass psychosis, not seen since at least South Sea Bubble of 1720.

Could it be, among many trigger-events, we get a sovereign debt crisis (assets dumped to pay debt) that send both gold and silver to much lower levels?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tales of The SOXX Top

August 2, 2023 By in 1987, Bonds, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Prechter, SOXS, SOXX, TLT, Wyckoff 4 Comments

Was It August 1st?

Was yesterday, the day?

The day the SOXX, closed higher but failed to print a new high.

It’s now early in the session (9:55 a.m., EST) and we have a new daily low.

There have been sell signals before but this one has a different ‘feel’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Yesterday, bonds (TLT) gapped open lower and broke below support; rates are rising … again.

The 1987 Set-Up

Those old enough, remember the set-up. Rates up (bonds down) and market rising to all-time highs at the same time.

A chart of the ’87 crash is here. Note, the high was in August, that year.

Now, a video from Robert Prechter, about the current historic extremes.

‘Not since the South Sea Bubble of the 1700s’

Couple all of that with bonds (TLT) breaking down and we could have that ‘inflection point’, saying we’ve reached the top (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Mania Goes ‘Manic’

Going back to this post, it said to expect the AI proaganda to increase as we reach the top and reverse down.

If yesterday was that day, then we’ve got more articles coming about the downside being a ‘buying opportunity’.

It’s been the same throughout history

From a positioning standpoint and Wyckoff analysis perspective, under such conditions, one is to pick the weakest market to short and not the strongest (not advice, not a recommendation).

Junior Gold Miners, GDXJ, Bear Market

The last update showed how positions can be de-risked.

There’s always uncertainty but working long enough in the markets and eventually an understanding is formed on how the game is played.

Fake, fabricated or ‘serendipitous’ news articles getting the public on the wrong side, are just part of the game.

In the early session, the GDXJ, is continuing its move lower.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Niger News, De-Risks ‘Short’

July 31, 2023 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Positions, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Gold Output Miniscule, On World Stage

A military coup in Niger results in gold shipment suspension.

Correspondingly, the mining sector along with gold and silver, are higher.

The real question is, will gold, silver, and the miners continue upward or is this just an excuse to force out the weak (short-positioned) hands?

If we look at the facts, such as Niger’s gold output compared to the rest of the world, it’s miniscule; hardly a blip and production is decreasing.

Add in, the mining sector has not been in a bull market for years, and we’ll surmise, the current move higher has low probability of continuing (not advice, not a recommendation).

For today’s session (as of 3:11 p.m., EST), price action has effectively been slammed into resistance as shown.

Junior Gold Miners GDXJ, Daily

For positioning short (via JDST) this is potentially a low-risk area (not advice, not a recommendation).

There would need to be continued demand for a move higher past the resistance area (blue line).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Supply & Demand … Junior Miners

June 29, 2023 By in GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Positions, serpentza, The List, The Speck 1 Comment

Testing The Right-Side

It’s a good thing we’re not listening to the ‘inflation’ narrative, just like we didn’t listen to ‘The Speck’ narrative of the past few years.

Turns out, ‘The Speck‘ was just the re-branded, common flu.

Inflation or Deflation

One has to wonder if the mainstream will ever acknowledge we’re in a deflation impulse.

The ‘inflation’ we’re seeing is (potentially) more associated with supply, product, and population destruction than any ‘money printing’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

As ‘Winston’ says at this link (time stamp (1:21:48),

‘People are allergic to the truth.’

The truth for the day, concerning the Junior Mining Index GDXJ, is that we’re testing the right-side trend line, the supply side.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily Candle

Today’s price action is technically a ‘Key reversal’.

As such, the typical response is continuation to the upside during the coming days and or weeks.

Key reversals are not perfect and at times, will fail.

The important session for GDXJ, is tomorrow, Friday.

Continued upside most likely results in exit of short positions (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Mind The (Miner) Gap

June 21, 2023 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Loeb, Neil McCoy-Ward, Positions, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

‘Straightforward’ … Sort Of

‘Real (market) opportunities are rare. When one is found, it must be used to its fullest extent’; Gerald M. Loeb, the late, and former Vice Chairman, of E.F. Hutton

What a refreshing quote that is, back in the day when we had ‘Chairmen.’.

So, are the Miners the Juniors GDXJ, that opportunity?

From a technical standpoint, there’s the bearish divergence on MACD when looking at the weekly. Then, we have Fibonacci correlation on the weekly as well (shown below).

The daily has the short entry signal given yesterday (not advice, not a recommendation).

Fundamentals Collapse

Next, we have industrial demand in collapse, not to mention the world economies. If industrial demand is collapsing for photovoltaic components (link here), then silver demand must be collapsing.

The ‘Gap’

The analysis was working fine in the pre-market for shorting the GDXJ (not advice, not a recommendation), but then at the open, there was the gap.

Let’s address that but first get started with the weekly chart of GDXJ

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Weekly

The technical details are clear: Bearish divergence on MACD as well as Fibonacci time correlation.

The original Fibonacci 89-weeks was covered in this post.

Yesterday, there was a gap-lower open and price action kept posting lower.

Will this gap be filled? That’s the question.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

As the chart implies, was yesterday a breakaway gap?

Price action’s right at support … or slightly below, which technically put us in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

The ‘Probabilities’

Given the bearish overall condition of this sector both on a technical and fundamental basis, a gap-fill is unlikely … but one has to be prepared.

As stated in the last update, the short position via leveraged inverse JDST was increased (not advice, not a recommendation).

To account for possible gap closure on the inverse JDST, a soft stop (trader discretion) is at 6.80 and below, with an absolute hard stop (no excuses exit) at 6.38 (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s now, 20-minutes before the open.

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Entry Signal(s) … Short The Miners

June 20, 2023 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Positions 1 Comment

Classic, Textbook

It’s rare to get a ‘textbook’ signal … but every now and then, it does happen.

The last update on the Junior Miners, GDXJ, said a short position in the sector was re-established.

Today’s trading action may be straightforward; we either get stopped-out, or the market gives the signal to enter a full (sized) position (not advice, not a recommendation).

The bearish case for the miners has already been established many times over. Recent posts are here, here, here and here.

Since we’re looking at the sector from the short side, we’ll use the chart for the leveraged inverse fund JDST.

Junior Miners, Leveraged Inverse JDST, Daily

As said at the top, it’s (potentially) straightforward.

If JDST, price action exceeds 6.81, a full position will be entered with hard stop at this session’s low (determined at the close of the day).

If price action declines to 6.37, or lower, the existing (small) position is closed out.

Closer in, with a zoom of the price action.

As of this post (8:41 a.m., EST) JDST is trading in the pre-market slightly higher at, 6.65 which is + 0.08, or + 1.22%.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Trading Channel Update, GDXJ

June 18, 2023 By in Edward Dowd, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Uneducated Economist 1 Comment

Price Action Itself, Defines The Levels

It’s time for an ‘adjustment’ to the trading channel identified in the prior update.

The Juniors GDXJ, are still in a downtrend.

Last Friday, they hit and retraced from the (adjusted) right side trading channel shown below.

The weekly MACD histogram (not shown) remains in a bearish divergence, indicating probabilities still favor the downside.

Price action will have to decisively break the downtrend to negate the bearish potential.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily Candle

From a trading perspective, existing short positions were closed out this past Friday and then re-established (partially) towards the end of the session (not advice, not a recommendation).

Dollar Death … Not Yet

Just like the A.I. propaganda, it’s popular to get hysterical about ‘de-dollarization’.

Two perspectives that are not part of the crowd are here and here.

They give a more sober look at what is really happening on a world-wide, dollar basis.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279