Category Archives: Interest Rates

Sunday Night Futures

August 24, 2025 By in BAC, Federal Reserve, Financial Sector, Interest Rates, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XLF 1 Comment

Bank of America & XLF

It’s no secret, Warren Buffet has been selling BAC, shares for some time; more recently, here.

The hard part is, how does one map that to price action?

Or does his selling have any material effect.

From a Wyckoff standpoint, we put that information in the background.

It’s there, we’re aware of it, but the focus is on price action itself.

So, let’s take a look.

BAC is a heavy weighting the in financial sector, with index tracking fund XLF, as a good vehicle for analysis.

That ETF just printed an all-time high this past Friday.

Financials XLF, Daily

Friday’s Fed announcement could be a significant infection.

Of course, the media is all aboard with a September cut, providing endless opinions on how to trade something that has not even happened.

What we’re looking for on this site, is some evidence of a reversal. We’re looking to see if price action stalls in not only the XLF, but the other major sectors as well.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Delta’s at The Top

August 23, 2025 By in Airlines, DAL, DAL-25-03, Ed Dowd, Federal Reserve, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Interest Rates, Positions, Prechter, Semiconductors, SOXX Tags: , , , , 4 Comments

Apex, Terminating Wedge

Was the Fed speech a turning point?

Remember, markets typically move in the opposite direction first after the Fed, then resume their main trend.

On Friday, markets were generally higher on interest rate hopes. It’s called ‘hope’, as the Fed’s not actually done anything.

Let’s word that more accurately. The bond market has not (yet) told the Fed to lower rates. When it does (if it does), they will follow and present their case as if they are leading the market.

Decades ago, Robert Prechter Jr., in a research paper, proved this point. More recently, Ed Dowd repeats the fact, link here (time stamp: 37:48).

Markets were higher, including the SOXX, covered here, and in this update, airline sector Delta (DAL).

Delta Airlines, DAL, Daily

If there’s any one chart showing why this site primarily works the short side, this is it.

The last major move was an impulse downward, taking less than three-months.

The corrective move against the trend, has so far been nearly five months in choppy overlapping action.

DAL, finished on Friday at the Fibonacci 78.6%, retrace level (not shown). Unless the market decides otherwise, we’re in a terminating wedge.

Currently short DAL, as DAL-25-03, with stop just above Friday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Weekend Wait

Now, the worrying starts … we can almost write the mainstream media script for the next few days.

Why will the Fed need to lower rates? Is unemployment going to continue higher? What about all the mass layoffs? How will the consumer be affected … and on and on.

As a reminder, ‘alternate’ (real) unemployment numbers are here. We’re already at 25%, Depression era levels.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

June 29, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, Car Questions Answered, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Interest Rates, Positions, SLV, UNG, WMT, WMT-25-03

Bonds & The Economy

Not getting much attention in the media yet, is what looks like a slow (nascent), upside reversal, of long-bonds.

Here’s an excellent description of what’s going on with the yield curve, link here.

However, there’s one potential error (depending on data used), in the link above, the job market.

Real unemployment numbers can be found here.

It says, we’re already at ‘depression era’ levels of 25% unemployment.

If anyone’s skeptical of alternate numbers, the official numbers have already been proven to be ‘in-question’.

One of the best examples of ‘official’ data, or lack thereof, is this report.

What’s a million jobs or so, between friends. 🙂

With mass layoffs starting, also, here and here, that 25% number above, is likely to increase significantly.

We can even add some anecdotal evidence, link here.

Strategy, Tactics, Focus

The price action of the market itself, is telling us where to go for opportunity.

Upside may still be there, if one wants to position in the A.I. bubble (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, for over eighteen months, this site’s been profitable only positioning to the short-side (UNG, the exception) and sees no reason to join the crowd buying into the A.I. mania (not advice not a recommendation).

The current focus is on WMT, a sleeper, not-doing-much, for years, that may be about to get interesting.

Currently short as WMT-25-03, with stop at last week’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, Reversal or Supply?

June 14, 2025 By in CVNA, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Prechter, Wyckoff

The Top, or Not

The past two trading days have Carvana down hard, on supply.

Is the trend still up?

What about the Fibonacci time (Day 89) correlation?

Prechter said it best, when commenting that ‘time’ follows ‘form’; meaning, the form is the most important and time, secondary.

So, at this juncture, time correlation is set aside, and we look at form.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The past (price action) is affecting the present.

Note how the resistance level from way back in late 2021, mapped directly to the present.

Based on that resistance, current action can be labeled a Wyckoff Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Test or Not

‘Normal’ market behavior is to come back up for a test of resistance. It can happen, but it’s not required.

Recall, there’s a Fed meeting and interest rate announcement, this Tuesday and Wednesday.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Boeing … ‘In The Pattern’

May 19, 2025 By in BA, BA-25-01, Bonds, Interest Rates, Positions 4 Comments

And Losing Altitude

If Boeing can’t frame airplanes in a timely and safe manner, it doesn’t matter how many orders are on the books.

Record order for Boeing, link here.

Add to that, the debt, just months ago, one notch above junk, link here.

Then, add to that, links here and here, interest rates may be moving higher as we speak. All of which, could put the bond issuance plan (see ‘junk’ link, above) at risk.

One more thing; Boeing has no P/E, and no yield.

You can’t make this up. 🙂

Boeing BA, Weekly

Note, repeating pattern: Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.

The sidebar shows already short BA, as trade BA-25-01, with stop at today’s final high or last Friday’s high, whichever comes first (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

May 18, 2025 By in Bonds, CVNA, CVNA-25-02, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, ZeroHedge

USA, Credit Rating Downgrade

Providing fuel to the interest rate fire of yesterday’s post, we have this and this. Website link here.

Adding to that, is the ‘big picture’ on US debt, i.e., it’s “unsustainable”, link here.

The strategy on the debt, is to have the situation (known) in the background; so, when things really implode, one is not caught ‘off guard’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

For example, what’s going to happen to ‘rate’ related commerce (like auto sales) if interest rates launch higher?

Short Covering

Short covering on a mass scale is not a bull market phenomenon.

In the past week or so, we’ve had another near record amount of buying, links here and here.

All Quiet

As of this post (7:45 p.m., EST), the markets are holding steady.

The only position open, is short Carvana CVNA-25-02, with a stop, nearly hit on Friday, at 304.61 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Interest Rates … Higher

May 17, 2025 By in Bonds, David Weis, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, TLT 3 Comments

TLT … ‘What Do You See?’

With TLT, poised to break lower (rates higher), make sure you’ve got your popcorn ready; the show is about to begin. 🙂

The next Fed meeting is one month away. A lot can happen before then.

Of course, by some unforeseen event, bonds could recover and move higher with rates lower. Anything can happen.

However, when looking at the long-term chart of TLT, a breakdown appears imminent (not advice, not a recommendation).

Long Bonds TLT, Monthly

Back in the day, David Weis (see About), never asked me what I thought, or about the next earnings release, or any other non-productive pursuit.

No, the question was always: “What do you see?”

If bonds break lower and rates go (significantly) higher, just think of the chaos.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Health Care Reversal … Example

May 6, 2025 By in Federal Reserve, Health Care, Interest Rates, Oil, Oil & Gas, Positions, XLV, XLV-25-03, XOP 3 Comments

Looking For The Oil Patch

The Healthcare Sector (XLV) has reversed hard to the downside.

The set-up: Blue line resistance, penetrated during a breakout, then failing.

That’s what we’re looking for in Oil Sector, XOP.

While we wait, XOP looks to be quite weak, and the breakout may never come.

Tomorrow, we have the Fed announcement. That might provide some XOP upside, however temporary (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Breakdown … Part 2

April 20, 2025 By in Bonds, David Weis, Ed Dowd, Greg Hunter, Interest Rates, Prechter, TLT, Wyckoff

Largest Downside Thrust … Ever

In the past few weeks, it seems like the markets have been whacked with a lot of, ‘the largest, ever’.

Trading in bonds, specifically TLT, is no exception.

While the media and pundits alike, deflect with ‘who’s doing the selling’ (hint: it’s not important), we’re going to look at the harder question of ‘what does it mean?’

Kick-Off, or Capitulation

Borrowing from research and writings of Wyckoff, Weis, and Prechter, when we get such a huge thrust downward (chart below), it’s typically one of two events:

A massive kick-off to much lower prices or a capitulation that washes-out the weak hands.

A bond upside reversal (rates lower) is a common sign of nearing or active economic downturn (not advice, not a recommendation).

In this interview with Greg Hunter, Ed Dowd covers the topic … the expectation for the reversal. However, that interview, was before the massive thrust lower.

Long Bond Proxy, TLT, Weekly

For years, it’s been one failed upside (reversal) after another.

Is this time, different?

The right side (magenta arrows) shows unprecedented thrust and volume.

So far, there has been a weak recovery to 38.2%, retrace of the recent down-move.

If that retrace level holds, with bonds continuing lower (rates higher), it does not bode well for the ‘capitulation’ narrative.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia Target

March 15, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX

Then, The Fed

There are four more trading days left to compete the bar on the 8-Day, chart of Nvidia, below.

What are the chances it continues on higher into resistance?

If it does, it’s the 50% retrace of the entire move from highs on January 7th, to the lows of March 11th.

Then, The Fed

We have a Fed meeting this coming week, 18th and 19th.

Could any announcement be used as an ‘excuse’ to propel the market higher … straight into resistance?

Nvidia Fibonacci 8-Day

Who uses an 8-Day chart?

Not anybody I know 🙂

If Nvidia continues to rally, one would expect the SOXX, to move higher as well … potentially creating yet another short opportunity (not advice, not a recommendation).

Lastly, Ed Dowd

Here’s a link to a recent interview. At time stamp 37:48, he spills the beans on The Fed.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279