Category Archives: IYR

Going Short on ‘Corrective Waves’

November 18, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Gold & Silver, IYR, LABD, LABD-23-13, Positions, SLV, SPBIO, SRS, SRS-23-04, XBI, ZeroHedge, zsl, ZSL-23-01 2 Comments

All The Same ‘Look’

Did we just have the largest bull trap in market history?

Now, after the bulls (may) have been caught off-guard, we have this; the specter of ‘deflation‘ and demand destruction.

Last Tuesday’s CPI report provided a backdrop for the continued squeeze higher.

Over the past several weeks, at least three markets have developed the same (bearish) ‘look’.

They’re posting corrective ‘a-b-c’ price action, going against the main trend.

SLV, IYR & XBI, Weekly

Take a look, all similar in their formation.

Positioning

As of the close on Friday, I have positioned short in all three markets (not advice, not a recommendation).

The IYR short was initiated this past Wednesday, the Silver short on Thursday, then just minutes before the close on Friday, the biotech short.

Trades are labeled as SRS-23-04, ZSL-23-01, LABD-23-13

Next Steps

The coming week is likely to see one, or a variation of the following: all trades stopped out, one or two trades with discretionary exit, then followed by potential concentration on the best candidate.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas & Real Estate

November 14, 2023 By in IYR, Natural Gas, Positions, Real Estate, SRS, SRS-23-03, UNG, UNG-23-05

Stopped-Out

Sometimes you feel like kicking the computer.

In a way, today is, and is not, that day.

The IYR short, SRS-23-03, was stopped-out for a loss of 0.32-pts, about – 1.68%.

Not too bad, but not the desired outcome (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of this post (2:10 p.m., EST), the UNG trade (UNG-23-05) is testing its reversal, covered in this update.

Nat-Gas, UNG, Daily

Coming back to test a reversal as shown above, is normal market behavior. One just has to wait for the market to work itself out.

Positioning

The initial position UNG-23-05, remains intact with a hard Stop at 6.29 (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, after today’s session, that stop is likely to be moved to the day’s low; currently UNG 6.43 (not advice, not a recommendation.

Any further downside testing after today points probability to a trade failure.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate’s Massive Channel

November 11, 2023 By in IYR, Livermore, Positions, Real Estate, SRS, SRS-23-03

Trading Channel, A ‘Mile-Wide’

We all know something’s coming; we just don’t know what.

A century ago, Livermore said, ‘surprises typically come in the direction of trend’.

Back in August, this update said if certain conditions were met (trend breakdown), then real estate has ‘enormous downside potential’.

Since then, events have unfolded to increase the probability of downside for IYR (not advice, not a recommendation).

The weekly chart of IYR spells it out. We’re in a (potential) massive downside trading channel.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

From the left side low (October 2022), to the right-side test two weeks ago, is Fibonacci 55 weeks, plus one week; well within an acceptable margin of error for timing.

Anything can happen and IYR could somehow power higher into more testing or a channel breakout.

Until then, positioning in this sector remains as follows (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

The current short position via Leveraged Inverse Fund SRS, is identified as SRS-23-03.

The initial entry was documented here and here.

Hard Stop is SRS 19.25, with a Soft Stop (discretionary) at SRS 19.79 (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of Friday’s close, initial position profit is about + 5.7%.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate’s Failed Test

November 9, 2023 By in IYR, Positions, Real Estate, SRS, SRS-23-03

If … It Holds

We’re on Fibonacci Day five of the real estate reversal; this could be the turning point for the next leg lower.

When looking at the daily close of IYR (below), it’s clear, if yesterday was the attempt to move higher, as of this morning, that attempt, has failed.

If downside price action holds, we have IYR only able to retrace a Fibonacci 23.6%, of the down move from the November 3rd high; very weak indeed.

Real Estate IYR, Daily Close

The initial move lower was a Fibonacci three days.

Then, the test (yesterday) and now today, a new high of 0.01-pt, (from Tuesday’s high) before posting lower.

Anything can happen.

A retrace of only 23.6%, is rare.

Typical retrace amounts are 38.2%, and 50%.

The action we are observing, could just be a set-up for a future, higher retrace.

Positioning

In the meantime, I am remaining short this sector via Leveraged Inverse Fund SRS (not advice, not a recommendation).

That trade is noted as: SRS-23-03.

The position stop has been moved from SRS 18.70 to SRS 19.25, with today’s low of SRS 19.79, as a discretionary stop (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Santa Clause Rally?

November 4, 2023 By in IYR, Positions, Real Estate, SRS, SRS-23-03, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Here We Go, Again

In the markets, anything can happen.

There could be a sustainable rally into Christmas but is that the highest probability?

When looking at the chart of real estate IYR, the short answer is (most likely) no.

Strategy Review

Back in August, potential for the breakdown of a fourteen-year-long, trendline was identified.

Since then, we’ve had that break.

Then, this past week was a test of the breakdown.

As we’ll see in the chart below, from a trading standpoint, we’re at The Danger Point®

Price action closed the week hovering just below resistance in what looks like a sharp short-covering rally.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

As shown, a short position was opened via Leveraged Inverse Fund SRS, as price action was backing away from the blue-line resistance area (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll find out at the next open, if going short was a good idea or not. 🙂

The important part is, we’re at resistance.

If IYR, is to continue to rally, it would probably need to spend time at that resistance absorbing all the sellers.

If so, that gives the speculator a hint, higher prices are ahead and to exit the trade (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … The Breakdown

November 3, 2023 By in IYR, Positions, Real Estate, SRS, SRS-23-03 2 Comments

Now, It Gets Interesting

Back in August, this post identified the potential for a long-term breakdown in real estate, IYR.

Since then, IYR broke its trendline.

As of today, we have a potential test of that break.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly Close

The chart shows the breakdown from the wedge and now, an underside test.

Subsequent updates will get closer-in on the action (daily chart) to show the breakdown and test.

Positioning

Right around mid-session, IYR price action appeared to be making its highs. At that point, a short position via Leveraged Inverse Fund SRS, was initiated at SRS 19.02 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade identification is, SRS-23-03.

The stop has yet to be determined (will be set next session) but is likely going to be today’s SRS low @ SRS 18.70 for a ‘risk’ of about, 0.32-pts.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

If Real Estate Goes …

August 30, 2023 By in Dr. Elder, DRV, Federal Reserve, IYR, Positions, Real Estate, SRS

Then, Everything Goes

‘Professionals don’t look for the challenge, they look for the money’, Dr. Alexander Elder

Right now, the ‘challenge’ is AI; bull or bear, who’s right?

We even have a bearish article out on SeekingAlpha. That means, the sector will probability go higher from here. 🙂

I wrote for SeekingAlpha years ago; had tens-of-thousands of views on my work; was somehow, never paid a dime.

The editors eventually told me, identifying potential market turns to-the-day, was “not suitable” (that’s a real quote) for their readers … so, there’s that.

Follow The (Nat-Gas) Money

Meanwhile, a potential significant reversal was identified in Nat-Gas, link here. So far, it’s progressing under the radar.

Entries have been made in UNG, at 6.64, 6.75, 6.86, 6.89, with a hard stop moved up to UNG 6.71 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Next, we have a potential reversal in Real Estate.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

Price action’s now at Fibonacci Day 8, from the low on August 21st. In addition, it’s at the 50%, retrace level from the high on July 27, to the aforementioned low.

We’re in a high, potentially, soon to be much higher, interest rate environment.

The (Interest Rate) Black Swan

The general public and investing professionals alike, think as the economy tanks, the Fed will lower rates.

It’s a widely and strongly held belief. After all, it’s always worked that way.

What if it doesn’t happen this time.

The economy tanks and rates move even higher?

it’s a possibility to consider.

Positioning

As one might guess, I’m already short this sector via DRV (not advice, not a recommendation).

Entries were made yesterday and today at DRV 48.42, and 47.66 respectively.

Hard Stop, is at the session low of DRV 47.00 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … Poised To Break

August 29, 2023 By in IYR, Real Estate 3 Comments

Enormous Downside Potential

Looking at Real Estate Index IYR, below, is all anyone needs to know.

It’s a set-up for a massive decline (not advice, not a recommendation).

For months, if not years, everyone’s been looking for ‘The Crash’.

Well, it looks like we’re on the cusp of some type of event.

Real Estate, IYR Weekly Close

The chart puts it into perspective.

We have a weekly close chart going all the way back to mid-2000, and it shows a massive ‘terminating wedge.’

Tomorrow’s data release is ‘pending home sales’.

On a daily chart to be provided in the next update, IYR price action has come back (up) to test resistance.

If there’s a downside reversal IYR’s likely to head back down to the multi-year trendline … again.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Key Reversal … Yet Again

June 13, 2023 By in 1987, DUST, Federal Reserve, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IYR, JDST, Real Estate, The List, The Maverick of Wall Street, The Speck 2 Comments

Junior Miners Take Another Hit

With today’s outside-down (as of 2:43 p.m., EST), that makes it two key reversals for GDXJ, in the past five trading days.

While it looks like the whole herd is focused on the new mania, Artificial Intelligence, back at the ranch, the miners are painting an ominous picture.

Rendezvous With Destiny

The first two-minutes and ten seconds, at this link, are all that’s needed to get the idea of what’s likely to come.

The market recovered (fairly quickly) from 1987 … this time, may indeed be different.

The Elephant Sleeps

Ah, yes. The elephant no one talks about … or more accurately, are afraid to talk about.

Three links here, here and here, show us the elephant may be about to awake.

Even Fox News admits, it was all a lie.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Trend & Channel

From the bottom, May 25th to now, is a Fibonacci 13-Days.

Is that important?

Here’s a prior analysis on Real Estate IYR, that shows how Fibonacci can identify the pivot point, trend and/or trading channel.

Now, back to the Juniors.

The mining sector appears to be under pressure. Each attempt to rally is being thwarted.

Compressed view of the channel, below.

The Fed announcement at 2:00 p.m., EST tomorrow, may or may not have any material effect. The sector may just continue lower …. slowly, without much fanfare (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … After The Reversal

February 25, 2023 By in DRV, Economic Ninja, I Allegedly, IYR, Jerimiah Babe, Real Estate, SRS, TSLA 1 Comment

Trading, In The Cannel

Real estate reversed at Fibonacci Week 34, on schedule, as identified in this update.

Since then, it’s been three weeks of closing lower.

‘Boots on the ground’, have been done by numerous YouTubers such as Jerrimiah Babe, Economic Ninja, Dan from i-Allegedly, and others.

Real estate from a fundamental standpoint is in free-fall (not advice, not a recommendation).

Supporting data can be found at this link; time stamp 3:10 and 5:25, specifically for real estate.

From the realm of ‘You can’t make this stuff up’, go to time stamp 7:25, in the above link and look at the price of Telsa.

However, let’s not wander too far off and get back to the ‘implosion du jour’, real estate. 🙂

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

If this channel is in-effect, meaning the ‘demand’ side is a long way down, the trading potential is enormous (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, let’s look at the daily chart and potential Put option trade.

Real Estate IYR, Daily (Close)

The market itself, the weekly above, has shown us it’s following a Fibonacci sequence … for now.

Getting down to the daily, on a close basis, we’re presenting one of an infinite number of potential moves.

It’s the upward move (if it happens) to test the channel line that’s the spot to watch.

During such a rebound, short dated put options would be decreasing in price significantly.

According to the economic calander, next Friday March 3rd, will have Fed representatives speaking at 11:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m., EST.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279