Category Archives: LABD

Early Session: Biotech

September 19, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, LABD, LABD-25-12, Positions, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, XBI

Repeating Pattern

The graphic at left, is a segment of biotech tracking ETF, XBI.

Note how it exhibits a repeating pattern of spring-to-up-thrust (S & U).

Today is also Fibonacci ‘Day 5’, from the ‘S’ labeled low.

As seen with gold GLD, slightly higher, not correcting immediately, anything can happen.

However, with XBI, we’re in a multi-year downtrend that may be finishing its countertrend move, ready to up-thrust and reverse lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Margin Debt … $1-Trillion

September 18, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DIA, IBB, IWM, IYR, LABD, LABD-25-11, Positions, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI, XLF, ZeroHedge

When it Implodes

Is the bell ringing?

Is this it?

In the pre-market, SPY, DIA, XLF, QQQs, all-time highs.

Meanwhile, beneath the surface, it’s getting a bit ‘uncomfortable’.

One Trillion in margin debt as reported here and here.

The Ones To Watch

While all eyes are focused on the leaders (above), at least three markets are not participating:

Real Estate, IYR, Russell IWM, biotech, IBB, and XBI.

From a Wyckoff perspective, for short candidates, these are the ones to watch (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech, XBI

As stated in the prior update, XBI may have formed a triple top within and ‘up-thrust’, link here.

The obvious areas to watch for today’s session, are yesterday’s high and low.

A new high puts the up-thrust into question; new low, adds (a small) confirmation to reversal.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Rate Cut … Now, What?

September 17, 2025 By in Biotech, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, LABD, LABD-25-11, Michael Bordenaro, Positions, ShadowStats, SPBIO, XBI

Think, ‘Outside The Herd’

Michael Bordenaro, spells out the current jobs situation from a ‘boots on the ground’ perspective, link here.

From the video and comments, the agreement seems to be, unemployment is much higher than 5%.

Of course, if one is interested, more accurate job numbers (and inflation numbers) are at this link.

Separately, it appears that biotech XBI, has made a triple-top (not advice, not a recommendation).

More on that, later.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Breakout or Breakdown … Biotech

September 16, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, LABD, LABD-25-11, MyStrategicForecast, Positions, QQQ, SPBIO, SPY, Up-Thrust, XBI 2 Comments

‘Winds of Change‘

The last update said, XBI presented the ‘best (index) short opportunity’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Is that still true?

With the SPY and Qs, still grinding higher, XBI is absent, having topped four days ago.

It’s not necessarily the top per se, but the XBI location in the overall market.

While the major indices are just now reaching all-time highs, biotech XBI, posted all-time highs years ago.

Four and a half years, to be more precise.

Biotech XBI, Daily

Today’s action can be considered as a ‘test’ of the attempted (possibly failed) breakout.

There’s ‘evidence of a struggle’ and XBI is not (at this time) moving higher.

Adding to that, we have what’s been referred to as ‘Kabuki Theater‘ coming up at 2:00 p.m., EST, tomorrow).

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … The Big One?

September 10, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Greg Hunter, HOOD, IBB, Karen Kingston, LABD, LABD-25-10, Nasdaq, ORCL, Positions, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, SPY, The Speck, XBI 3 Comments

Next Leg Lower

Unfortunately, the (mad scientist) graphic at left, is not too far removed from what’s really going on in biotech.

While the S&P, Nasdaq Qs, Gold Miners, Semiconductors, Financials, The HOOD, ORCL, and others, continue to make all-time highs, conspicuously absent is biotech, XBI and IBB.

Now, it appears that quietly, in the background, XBI is reversing to the downside.

Biotech XBI, Daily Close

The up-thrust is there, but is a weak penetration of resistance.

Even so, on the ‘test’, volume contracted by -49.24%, when compared to volume on the upside penetration.

Until proven otherwise, this set-up appears to (currently) be the best short opportunity.

With that said, all other short positions have been closed to focus on biotech.

Leveraged inverse fund LABD is being used at this juncture: Trade LABD-25-10, with stop at the session low (not advice, not a reocmmendiaton).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Pre-Market Action & Stops

June 23, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, CRWD, CRWD-25-05, CVNA, CVNA-25-05, LABD, Positions, SPBIO, WMT, WMT-25-02, XBI

Watch The Highs

All three short positions discussed in last night’s update are trading lower in the pre-market session.

On a percentage basis, Carvana (CVNA) is down the most by about -1%.

At this point, the trading plan is simple; stops for all three are at, or near, the last session highs (not advice not a recommendation).

Moving on, we have an index that may be getting interesting, biotech XBI.

Back in late May, was this post.

Let’s see where we are now.

Biotech XBI, Weekly

A casual inspection of the chart shows price action ‘respecting’ the Fibonacci retrace levels.

For the past two weeks, XBI has drifted lower without decisive conviction.

It could continue its path to lower levels.

However, for a dynamic, sustained move, we need some type of catalyst, like taking out the (potential) stops at the location noted.

On the sidelines for now (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech (short) Targets

May 20, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, XBI

Where The Stops, Are Hiding

Let’s say, you’re a big player in the markets, with deep pockets.

Your timeframe is medium, to long-term, months-to-years.

If you were short biotech XBI, where are your stops?

That’s what we’ll look for, in the chart below.

Biotech XBI, Weekly

The un-marked chart, first.

Where does the eye go to (naturally) as a ‘safe’ location for stops on a short position?

Now, for where the stops may be hiding … and of course where we want to wait for a short (entry) opportunity.

The location shown is just below the 61.8%, retrace level and price action congestion.

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Curve Fitting’ Biotech … Part 2

April 18, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-08, Positions, SPBIO, XBI

Back To The Daily

Yesterday, the 3-Day chart was the best fit for biotech, XBI.

After Thursday’s action was complete, now the daily looks better.

Either way, we’ve got a tight stop (nearly hit, yesterday), and a trendline; decisive violation of either one, indicates an exit of (short biotech) LABD-25-08 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

There’s so much going on with this chart.

We’re at the point where the downtrend either continues, or morphs into a different scenario.

Even as this post was created (late Thursday), the after-hours session continues slightly lower for XBI; an encouraging sign, if short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Curve Fitting’ Biotech … Part 1

April 17, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-08, Positions, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, The Speck, ZeroHedge

Fibonacci, First

We’re letting the market decide what support/resistance, trendlines, and Fibonacci levels are significant.

We’ll even make an attempt to pick the timeframe(s) that best describes current action.

There’s a lot going on in a market sense, as well as ‘behind the scenes’ with revelations like this, and this, and this.

With that said, we’re looking at the 3-Day chart and Fibonacci levels.

Biotech XBI, 3-Day

The 3-Day is being used; it best shows current trending action (planned for next update).

The XBI, has near perfect (Fibonacci) symmetry.

Price action has made its way back to the 23.6%, level, and is hesitating.

Watching the action in real time, XBI gives the sense it does not know quite what to do … is it in a pause, gathering steam to move higher, or was the massive squeeze, on Wednesday, the 9th, all there was?

Positioning

As stated in the earlier update, XBI action on the 15th, put it at The Danger Point®; the location where risk was least for a short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s been slow going since then (ratcheting lower) but the one thing XBI, is not doing … is moving significantly higher.

More trade discussion, stop levels, link here (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

After The Squeeze

April 16, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-08, Positions, SPBIO, XBI 1 Comment

Biotech’s, Tale of Two Channels

What happens after the squeeze?

If it really was a squeeze, then demand evaporates, and prices (tend to) collapse (not advice, not a recommendation).

In the case of biotech, not only did we have a potential squeeze, two separate trading channels appear to be in effect.

Biotech, SPBIO, Daily

Both channels have contact points, Fibonacci 5 Days apart.

The more aggressive channel (grey dashed lines) has yet to be fully confirmed.

At this point, it’s essentially one contact on the right side.

Positioning

Remaining short this sector with LABD-25-08.

The stop has been moved (up on LABD) down to the XBI high, at XBI 76.24; effectively 10.24 on LABD, (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279