Category Archives: Positions

A.I., By The ‘Numbers’

October 15, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-16 1 Comment

Fibonacci ‘Day 8’

Don’t look now, but today is Fibonacci ‘Day 8’, from the SOXX high, on October 6th.

Let’s also include the panic low last Friday, was Fibonacci ‘Day 5’, from that same top.

Of course, the Fibonacci count does not guarantee anything. It just lets us know so far, the SOXX is respecting the sequence.

Then we have the chart.

Last Friday was possibly the largest ever, downward thrust energy for the SOXX (data back to October 2019).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Note the thrust energy ‘bookends’.

Not covered in this update, is the condition of A.I., ‘leader’, Nvidia.

There’s so much going on with that one. 🙂

After an attempted breakout during the past twelve trading days, it’s now lower, back in the trading range (bearish).

It’s also established a nascent downtrend line (bearish).

Today’s open was above yesterday’s high. As of this post (11:53 a.m., EST), it looks ready to print a new daily low.

If that happens, it’s ‘outside down’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Wells Fargo … Last Gasp?

October 14, 2025 By in Banking, David Weis, Positions, Up-Thrust, WFC, WFC-25-01

Proverbial ‘Gut-Check’

For those fortunate enough to have the David Weis video on ‘Trend Reversals‘, he discusses a particular market characteristic:

The ‘Gut-Check’

Instead of attempting to describe the phenomenon, we’ll just show what a (potential) move looks like with Wells Fargo, below.

Wells Fargo, WFC, Daily

There it is.

Is it a reversal, or a ‘gut-check’ test?

It’s important to note, the ‘Up-Thrust (reversal)’ location was all-time highs for WFC.

Remember, 86.66?

That post is here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Monday’s Damage Assessment

October 13, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Bert Dohmen, BIS, DRIP, DRV, DUST, DXD, FAZ, IBB, JDST, LABD, LABD-25-13, Positions, QID, SDS, SOXS, SPBIO, TZA, XBI

Where’s The Crash?

The YouTube weekend ‘consensus’ was for a Monday morning massacre.

So, where is it?

Bert Dohmen, said it best in this interview, (paraphrasing), ‘If everybody agrees with our analysis, then we have to get a new analysis’.

Monday’s First 15-Minutes

After the first 15-minutes of trade, an assessment was made on the ‘Leveraged Inverse Funds’.

The point being, since this site’s maintaining a short position in biotech (via LABD), how did it fare when compared to the other funds?

After the first 15-minutes of trade, the table at left shows all inverse funds being tracked, in the red, some painfully so (like SOXS, JDST, DUST).

All red, except for the two biotech’s, LABD and BIS.

Those two funds are short vehicles for biotech XBI and IBB, respectively.

The XBI index has not (yet) made a new daily low.

Conversely, the inverse fund LABD, has not made a new daily high.

With that said, the stop on LABD-25-13, remains at last Friday’s low of 33.17 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas … Post-Mortem

October 12, 2025 By in China, David Weis, Natural Gas, Positions, UNG, UNG-25-01, Up-Thrust

What Do You See?

We’re heading straight into winter.

Who knows what type of ‘weather’ we’ll have this time.

So, nat-gas can’t go any lower than where it is now, right?

Wrong

That type of thinking’s called a ‘Mind Trap’, link here.

David Weis would typically start mentoring sessions with a question (after presenting a chart):

“What do you see?”

Forgetting all the factors that ‘should’ drive the price of nat-gas higher, we have the chart.

Natural Gas ETF, UNG: Daily

The upper blue line is resistance which price action ‘up-thrusted’ (reversed).

The green line is a minor support area.

This is where a long position was initiated (UNG-25-01). The expectation for the next day (last Friday), was for an immediate increase it price.

That didn’t happen. The long position, the only ‘long’ for this year, was exited (not advice, not a recommendation).

The orange line is another support area but the lower blue line, if UNG gets there, is the ‘spring’ set-up target.

U.S & China Nat-Gas

Last Friday’s chaos with China and tariffs, begs the question if Chinese nat-gas shipments would be used as a tit-for-tat pawn; meaning, China halts all purchases.

The short answer is no.

For all of 2025, there’ve been no shipments, link here.

With that said, if nat-gas is going to move lower to the target area shown, then something else would be the driving mechanism.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech (short) Set-Up

October 9, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, IBB, LABD, LABD-25-13, Positions, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, XBI 3 Comments

Breakout Into Resistance

Both biotech funds, IBB, and XBI, are now in an up-thrust (potential reversal) condition.

In each case, the ETFs have pushed through a long-established trading range, straight into resistance.

The last update focused on less liquid IBB, because it was not known if heavily traded XBI, would push through its trading range (being the weaker of the two).

Since that initial update, both indices are now above their trading range.

Of course, what happens next is the question.

Biotech XBI, Weekly

The blue line is long established resistance.

The black dashed line is the top of the trading range and the up-thrust condition.

At this point anything can happen.

XBI, could reverse immediately or grind its way along, dissipate momentum, or even move higher.

We’re at the point where the risk of being wrong on a short position is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech At The Edge

October 7, 2025 By in Biotech, BIS, BIS-25-01, IBB, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Where The Risk Is Least

Biotech tracking fund IBB, has posted itself into an interesting position.

Last week, it launched higher over +7% and penetrated long established resistance; this week, it has essentially stopped dead.

Biotech IBB, Weekly

If what we have is the repeating pattern of ‘spring-to-up-thrust’, it’s happening on a massive scale.

For a short position, the broker being used indicates HTB (Hard To Borrow); there are potential fees associated with selling short.

With that said, the 2X leveraged Inverse fund is BIS. However, it too has problems. It’s not liquid; typically, 14K – 20K shares a day.

Nonetheless, short established via BIS (BIS-25-01) with stop at the week’s low of 11.95 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas Upside Pressure

October 5, 2025 By in Corn, Natural Gas, Positions, UNG, UNG-25-01, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Rally Into Winter?

The technical position of Nat-Gas (UNG) suggests conditions are in place for upside demand into the winter months (not advice, not a recommendation).

Some type of (seasonal) nat-gas rally is typical but not guaranteed.

Adding to that, the anomaly in June of 2023, since prices had come down so much, naturally, they just had to go higher.

Speculators positioned accordingly, creating a massive imbalance, link here.

Obviously, the increase in price never happened.

Natural Gas ETF, UNG, Weekly Close

Now, over two-years later, there may be a bullish set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).

This set-up looks very similar to CORN.

The latest CORN update included the potential for a retrace into a Wyckoff spring; last report, linked here.

Depending on price action, we’ll discuss that, this week.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Jabil ‘Canary’

October 3, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, JBL, JBL-25-01, Positions, Semiconductors

First To Go

When the order-flow begins to slow, outsource is the first to go.

Jabil (JBL) is an outsource for electronics related manufacturing.

With about 138,000 employees, it’s big.

Response to the latest earnings, has kicked off what looks like a reversal and now, a breakdown (not advice, not a recommendation).

Jabil JBL, Daily

After the deep thrust lower on earnings, JBL retraced to 50% before rolling over.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Banking Sector Breakdown

October 2, 2025 By in Financial Sector, Positions, Thoughtful Money, Wyckoff, XLF, XLF-25-07

Top & Trend

Financial sector XLF, has topped, reversed, and now appears to have formed a nascent down-trend (not advice, not a recommendation).

Top ten components are listed here.

Of those ten, nine are directly related to banking, credit or the insane (dubbed ‘pornographic‘) valuations of the market.

Financial Sector XLF, Daily

There’s an open short position, XLF-25-17, with stop located at yesterday’s high.

After today’s session, that stop will be moved lower to the high of today, currently at XLF 53.48 (not advice not a recommendation).

It’s important to note, although the trend appears to be lower, XLF has penetrated established support.

That puts it in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position. Some (marginal) upside is to be expected.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Banking System’s ‘Old Maid’

October 1, 2025 By in Banking, Daniela Cambone, DIA, DIA-25-05, Ed Dowd, Financial Sector, KBE, KBE-25-01, Positions, SOXX, SOXX-25-15, XLF, XLF-25-07 2 Comments

Where Is It?

As Ed Dowd says in this interview (time stamp: 19:16), somebody in the banking system’s holding The Old Maid.

As the overall markets continue to form what looks to be a top, maybe ‘the’ top, a process of (trade) iteration is occurring.

The objective is to determine which sector is the most vulnerable.

Short positions in the Dow and the SOXX have both been stopped out (not advice, not a recommendation).

With implosion of Tricolor Auto and now First Brands, the market itself is telling us, look at financial sector(s).

With that said, short positions have been opened in XLF, and KRE; both of which so far, are holding below their early session highs (not advice, not a recommendation).

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279