Category Archives: Spring-to-Up-Thrust

Biotech … Nears Set-Up Target

June 4, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, XBI 3 Comments

The Pattern (About) To Repeat

Of course, there’s no guarantee, biotech is going to repeat a repeating pattern; ‘spring-to-up-thrust’, but it looks probable.

We’ll start first, with the unmarked chart of biotech XBI.

Looking at the past month or so of trading activity, the eye should be drawn immediately to the potential.

Biotech XBI, Daily

If it’s a little vague, the second chart shows the detail.

Now, for the mark-up

Not included on the charts, is MACD.

If price action gets to the up-thrust (target) area and stalls, daily MACD could post a bearish divergence.

Let’s not forget, this congestion action continues to build a downside count when considering Point & Figure.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech, The Next Set-Up

March 28, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, Martha Stokes, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, XBI 1 Comment

Breaks Channel … Heads For Potential Up-Thrust

The market is always right.

If it’s not behaving as expected, then it’s obviously doing something else.

In the case of biotech XBI, that something else, may be working its way to the next set-up.

Strategy First

Until price action proves otherwise, the overall long term reversal assessment of the sector has not changed (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ve had a potential long-term up-thrust (reversal) that’s been covered here, and here.

That second link contains a 3-Day chart analysis.

Looking at the current price action and having it dictate what chart to use, we’ll switch to a 2-Day, which shows the potential more clearly.

Biotech XBI, 2-Day

The sector has failed to break below support in the 92 – 93, area. Instead, it has decided to bounce in what looks to be a possible minor spring-to-up-thrust.

We can see there’ve been two ‘hits’ on the upper resistance line. One, immediately after the up-thrust breakdown and one later … 4-bars later.

These hits essentially confirm the area, in effect, setting it up for potential penetration.

One has to think about where the stops are located.

If I was short this sector (I have been, but not currently), where would I place my stop?

Naturally, I’d put it right above the resistance (blue) line, exactly where everyone else has put theirs 🙂

Years ago, Martha Stokes wrote an update on why everybody gets stopped out of their trades, paraphrasing from this link:

‘The Market Makers don’t know you are there; they’re not interested in your tiny little stop order.

If your order does get taken out, it’s because too many small traders put their stops at the same location.

There’s an order imbalance. The market’s response is essentially automatic … take out the stops.’

With that, let’s see what happens next.

There’s no guarantee XBI, will penetrate the resistance area but if it does, we won’t be surprised.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Breakout or Fake-Out ?

March 16, 2024 By in Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, Gold & Silver, Inflation, Sovereign Default, Spring-to-Up-Thrust

Everybody’s, Been Waiting

How long has it been?

How long have we heard incessant rants, gold and silver hyper-launch is imminent?

Sure, I like gold as much as the next guy. It feels good when you hear the ‘clink’ of real money in your hands.

However, one has to remain unbiased and look at what price action, the market is actually telling us.

Strategy First

Since December 2020, this site has proposed, we’re in a situation similar to Genesis 41; it’s the food supply first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

In this post (two years ago), an observation, ‘stackers’ may be forced to liquidate just to survive.

Now, we have this and this. On that second link, the comments tell the real story:

‘… people are selling their silver because they need cash.’

With that, let’s look at the chart of gold, GLD.

Gold GLD, Weekly Bar

We’ve seen it before, the set-up, The Danger Point®

Let’s add some insight to this picture, hidden in the chart; we have the following:

Look at how much time it’s taken GLD, to go from the bottom of the range to the top; longer each time and with less energy, shown by the decline in (upside) volume.

Longer & Less

Takes longer and less energy.

Still, that does not guarantee anything. Gold cold just keep on grinding higher.

However, probabilities suggest (the chart itself) we may be at or near, a pivot to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Ready … For Reversal

March 10, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, CAT, LABD, NVDA, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 3 Comments

The Set-Up, Two-Years Wide

It seems like it’s been forever.

Shown in the chart, Biotech XBI, may be set-up for potential, sustained downside.

This post from August of 2021, describes what we’re looking for; a repeating action, possibly as old as the market itself.

It’s important to note, ‘set-up’, is not, success.

‘Set-Up’, Means: Conditions have presented themselves, lending to high probability outcome (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Weekly Close

Looking at the example with CAT (above link), and comparing it to the chart below, it’s similar except for the timeframe; XBI, is much longer.

Of course, downside action in CAT, reversing back to support, has yet to materialize with XBI.

That’s the point, it’s the unknown; The Danger Point®, where the risk of being wrong is least.

There’s nothing wrong with being wrong, i.e., quickly exiting a losing trade. It’s being wrong and staying wrong, that’s the problem. 🙂

The Nvidia Connection

This past Friday had wild trading action and volume in Nvidia, NVDA.

It posted a wide outside-down day, ranging over 108 points with heavy volume, 113.6-million.

The net result may be the end of the A.I. bubble; potential downside for it, and the rest of the markets (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

DHI Bounce … Will It Hold?

February 3, 2024 By in DHI, Real Estate, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Friday’s Action: ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust’

There’s a lot of ‘waiting’ in the markets; waiting for the right time, the right set-up.

The last update on D.R. Horton (DHI) said to watch for a test of resistance and possible Fibonacci time correlation.

Well, we got the test.

As for Fibonacci, it shifted to a potential low-to-high sequence; the low on January 24th, to the high on Friday, was 8-Days.

Friday’s action was a minor ‘spring-to-up-thrust. 

The prior session low was penetrated as well as the high with an overall lower close.

All of which brings us to the chart.

D.R. Horton, DHI, Weekly

Looking at the chart, it’s self-explanatory.

We’re in a terminating wedge that’s in a ‘throw-over’.

If price action gets below the upper wedge boundary, it’s a confirmation. That in turn, would suggest much lower prices ahead (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note the massive down-thrust. We have to go all the way back to the ‘event’, to see anything similar.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Rates Rising … Miners Critical

January 25, 2024 By in DHI, DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Interest Rates, JDST, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Then, The Real Estate Bubble

The elephant in the room:

Rates are not going lower, they’re going higher; sooner rather than later (not advice, not a recommendation).

Yesterday, ZeroHedge reported the 5-yr auction was nasty with rates rising to near recent highs.

Today, we have yet another supply disruption impacting so-called ‘inflation’.

Couple that with an apparent real estate implosion.

DH Horton (DHI) down nearly – 12% in just days and holding steady in the pre-market session.

It looks like the bubble party is (finally) over.

Gold Miners To Catch Bid?

The miners are at another critical juncture.

The Juniors GDXJ, are up in the pre-market session (8:00 a.m., EST) and may be catching a flight-to-safety bid as parts of the markets top out and/or reverse.

That flight to safety may not last long as we’ll see below.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

Trading is up about 1% or 0.32 pts in the pre-market.

GDXJ, price action is at The Danger Point®. 

We are either in a reversal (Wyckoff spring) set-up or just a pause before posting lower.

If it’s a rally, the target area is shown (magenta oval); corresponding to a 61.8% retrace.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech Bellwether … CRSP

December 9, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, CRSP, IMGN, LABD, LABD-23-16, MRTX, Positions, SOXS-23-10, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI

Repeating Trend, Cashing-Out

Once again, there’s a repeating trend of (potential) reversal.

This time, it’s biotech, specifically CRISPR Therapeutics, CRSP.

Before we get into it, a point of housekeeping; SOXS-23-10, has been closed, exited at SOXS 8.43; loss is manageable at -2.9% (not advice, not a recommendation).

CRSP, Market Proxy

CRSP, is being used as the proxy for biotech as it’s number five in market cap at this link.

However, the first two IMGN, and MRTX, are buyout (acquisition) candidates, eventually to be removed, making CRSP, number three with no additions.

Set-Ups That Repeat

Market behaviors repeat. Set-Ups repeat. The title above, was from a post over two years ago, link here.

Taking a look at CRSP, we have the same pattern.

CRISPR Therapeutics CRSP, Weekly

The volume spike for the week, is the largest ever; ergo, someone is selling.

From a CRSP, price action catalyst and news standpoint, the link is here.

This coming Wednesday, is the Fed interest rate announcement, link here.

Wyckoff said, ‘somebody always knows something and that “something”, shows up on the tape’.

It’s likely those that know, are cashing out ahead of the meeting (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

If it’s presented on this site, a position has already been established or it’s in preparation for entry.

So, it is with biotech.

A biotech short was opened this past Friday via LABD with two entries: LABD 13.93 and LABD 14.17.

Trade is labeled, LABD-23-16

Hard Stop @ LABD 13.82, for a combined (both entries) risk of 0.23-pts/share (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Set-Ups That Repeat

September 5, 2023 By in David Weis, Positions, SOXS, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Two Years Later

The on-going short position via SOXS has been maintained (with a new stop) and here’s why.

Just over two years ago was this post.

There are certain behaviors that markets tend to repeat; what’s called a Wyckoff ‘spring to up thrust’, is one of those.

Looking at the 30-minute chart of SOXX, that’s what we have today, … just barely.

What happened this session in the SOXX may be the last move upward before a sustained reversal.

Semiconductor SOXX, 30-minute

This morning, the SOXX penetrates prior 30-minute lows and sets-up a minor ‘spring’.

Price action then moves higher to just barely exceed the prior session highs for the ‘up-thrust’.

Then we have a retreat in the SOXX, effectively confirming that what just happened was a Wyckoff spring to up-thrust.

This is where sustainable reversals tend to occur.

Positioning

The previous Hard Stop of SOXS 8.97, is adjusted by two ticks to 8.95 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Obviously, the expectation is for a SOXX downside (SOXS higher) reversal from this point.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Market ‘Tests’ & ‘Instability’

May 2, 2023 By in David Weis, GDXJ, JDST, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, SPY, Usual Suspects 1 Comment

Taking The Helm

‘We have assumed control …’

For the mining sector we’re about to find out if it’s bulls or bears.

With today’s overall (S&P, Dow, QQQ, etc.) down market and the press screaming in hysterical panic at the start of the day, you’d think the market had collapsed 50% or more.

The last update (over the weekend) had this to say about the S&P (emphasis added):

“So, here we are: The market (SPY) has rallied over the past week, giving the illusion that all is well.

However, it too is now in up-thrust (reversal) position.“

So, the SPY declines by just over 1%, everyone loses their head and starts talking about CBDC.

Moving on to the ‘knee-jerk’ sector for the day, let’s look at the miners and specifically GDXJ.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily Close

Admittedly, the prior update was unsure whether or not this sector had its up-thrust reversal ‘test’.

Well, now we know.

The chart above has all the Usual Suspects.

We see the spring to up-thrust repeating pattern.

Then, a steady decline from the up-thrust and today’s short-sharp test or as the late David Weis used to call it, a ‘gut check’.

At this point the market’s unstable.

We’ll know soon if somehow we’re on to new highs or if this was the last gasp of a bull move withing an overall, years-long, bear market.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners … The Reversal

April 29, 2023 By in Derecho, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Jerimiah Babe, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Each Peak Is Lower

Gold’s reversal or potential for reversal, has already been covered here, here and here.

We’re going to focus on the Junior Miners GDXJ but start first, with an updated chart of gold (GLD).

Gold GLD, Weekly Close

This is how it looked back on April 15th.

As of the close yesterday, we have this:

It’s arguable GLD, is now below the resistance line (completing the Spring-to-Up-Thrust) but that’s not the most important part from a trading standpoint.

When looking at the Junior Mining Index GDXJ, there’s an ominous pattern.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly Close

Each extreme peak over the last three-years has been labeled; the Derecho of 2020, the so-called Ukraine ‘invasion’, and now, the banking crisis.

Note: The SVB bank failure was on March 10th. There was a ‘knee-jerk’ reaction by the public into gold and related components … that peak appears to have stalled at the location shown.

What’s going on is obvious; it’s a bear market.

Each major peak, lower than the last.

Now, the interesting part.

The Junior Miners are in Wycoff Up-Thrust condition.

In this case, price action’s solidly below the resistance line.

Looking at the daily (not shown), there may have been a ‘test’ of resistance this past week for a move higher; if so, it failed and GDXJ closed slightly lower.

Summary & Positioning

So, here we are: The market (SPY) has rallied over the past week, giving the illusion that all is well.

However, it too is now in up-thrust (reversal) position.

For my business accounts, it looks like being short the miners at this juncture is lower risk than being short biotech (not advice, not a recommendation).

Typical short vehicles that could be used (not a recommendation) are DUST and JDST.

As always, anything can happen. If the markets ‘implode’, they might be closed for any number of days or weeks.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279