Category Archives: $SPSIBI

There is no ‘Spoon’

September 13, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Interest Rates, LABD, LABD-22-05, Livermore, Positions, SPBIO, TDA-LABD-22-02, Wyckoff

Paradigm Shifts

We’re living in the surreal.

Only those who can ‘see’, understand it’s like something out of The Matrix.

The old paradigms no longer apply.

There is no ‘Pivot’

There never was a ‘pivot’; just like there never was a goal of 2% inflation, or full employment.

Way back in 1921, Jesse Livermore pegged it when he told Wyckoff, the whole premise of Wall Street, was to spread “deception”.

Deception is the key.

Attempting to figure out the next earnings release, the CPI or employment numbers, inflation, or what the Fed is likely to do, is to buy into the deception.

Following that deception, is the path of the amateur.

Meanwhile, back on the professional side; as early as 1909, Wyckoff discovered market prices move based on an energy and objective or their own … completely removed from any fundamentals.

A few days ago, this update, discussed how biotech SPBIO, was potentially at a pivot point and ready to reverse lower.

Well, downside reversal is what we have.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly Close

Even though we still have three trading days left, SPBIO, appears to be confirming the right-side trading channel.

Last Week.

And … this week

With the overall markets down sharply, events appear to be set in motion to continue downside action.

Summary:

As stated in prior updates, the current trade; LABD-22-05, was initiated in anticipation of a significant break lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

On the biotech fundamentals side (not that it matters), the wheels have come off.

The top weighted equities have no P/E … a decent conclusion may be the lower weightings don’t either.

Nobody’s making any money; rates are rising and we’re heading straight into an economic depression.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The ‘Santa Claus’ Rally

September 10, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, 2007 - 2008, Biotech, Jerimiah Babe, LABD, LABD-22-05, Livermore, Loeb, Pinball Preparedness, Positions, SPBIO, TDA-LABD-22-02, Wyckoff 2 Comments

That Was it!

It’s going to be a very different place come December.

This won’t be like ’08 -’09, where all the stops are being pulled to ‘rescue’ the market.

No, this time really is different.

We can all see by now; the plan is controlled demolition.

Paraphrasing Jerimiah Babe, and Pinball Preparedness, we haven’t even got started (with the collapse) and the public’s already folding up.

What’s it going to be like when it really hits?

This past week, all the major indices have gone through some type of relief rally. Call it a Santa Claus rally because there probably won’t be one this December.

Trading Consistency

Throughout this upward correction, the case has been made over and again, only biotech SPBIO’s in a technical (and fundamental) condition that would allow it to decline farthest and fastest (not advice, not a recommendation).

Wyckoff analysis along with Livermore’s strategic approach that’s coupled with Loeb’s ‘focus’, has led us to (shorting) this sector exclusively.

Strategy, Tactics, Focus

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly Close

Looking at the far-right side of the chart, SPBIO rallied this past week. It looks like it may head higher … that is, until we put in the trend-lines.

Now, let’s put in the trendlines.

Extended trendlines show the downside potential.

We’re about to see how this works out.

Friday’s upward action in SPBIO slowed with inverse LABD, posting narrow (downside) action as well.

Ready to reverse.

Summary

Trading action in the past week amounted to reducing the position size in LABD-22-05, by about 4.6% (not advice, not a recommendation).

If and when SPBIO continues is downward trajectory, that position (shorting via LABD) will again be increased as the market allows.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

We’ve Seen This Movie, Before

September 8, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, 1907, 1929, 1974, 1987, 2000 - 2001, 2007 - 2008, 2022, Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-05, Positions, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TDA-LABD-22-02

1907, 1929, 1974, 1987, 2000, 2007, … and Now

As Scott Walters has said:

‘It’s different this time.

It’s Worse!‘

That ‘worse’ part includes the adverse moves in the market.

This time around, as opposed to ’07 – ’08, they really do seem to be worse.

Which, brings us to biotech SPBIO.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly

Just to remind ourselves where biotech is at the moment, we have the un-marked weekly chart.

This sector’s the only one (miners excluded) that’s trading below the 50-Week and 200 Week Moving Averages with a 50-wk cross to the downside.

On a weekly basis, we’re in a major long-term downtrend that looks to have finished its upside correction.

Getting closer-in on the hourly chart we have the following.

SPBIO, Hourly

What do you see?

Here’s the marked-up version.

Over and again; a fractal set-up called ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust‘.

The zoom chart below shows that price action appears to be struggling at the resistance area (black line).

Danger Point

At this juncture we’re at The Danger Point®

Enough of a push higher and SPBIO, could continue on upward, overcoming significant technical and fundamental barriers.

However, since we’re trending lower in the longer timeframes, probabilities suggest that downtrend may be ready (or near ready) to re-assert itself.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech (Short), The Details

September 6, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, IBB, LABD, LABD-22-05, Positions, SPBIO, TDA-LABD-22-02, The Speck, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Relentless Positioning For The Downside

Like a terrier on a mailman’s leg, positioning short biotech via LABD, has been relentless (not advice, not a recommendation).

This update details the current positioning via 3X, Leveraged Inverse Fund, LABD.

This is not investment advice; this site has no obligation to provide the following information.

However, as stated in the About section, one of the purposes here, is to document trade actions and results.

With that in mind, the green arrows show the locations of LABD entries for the short-biotech (SBPBIO) trade identified as LABD-22-05.

Biotech SPBIO, 3X Leveraged Inverse Fund LABD, Daily

The magenta arrow at the far right of the chart, is the ‘break-even’ point. It’s about 1.75 – 2.0 points away from the current price.

Note: This is not ‘Dollar Cost Averaging’.

Few in the industry know that ‘dollar cost averaging’ is based on a scam conducted by the bucket shops in the early 1900s.

It’s comforting to know, that method (the scam), has made its way into at least one SEC certification requirement.

There, I feel much better 🙂

One of, if not the main reason for working this trade with the current method, is the real danger this market could ‘implode’ at any minute.

We’re just one (un)planned event away from being down 20% – 50% overnight.

Biotech SPBIO ($SPSIBI), Weekly Close

The weekly close shows SPBIO to be unique among all the major indices (miners excluded).

Not even the sister index IBB, has the weekly MA cross (black arrow) to the downside.

“You Are Here”

On the chart below, the complete positioning short SPBIO is shown as the magenta rectangle.

Also shown, are measured move targets.

Looking at the potential of this trade, the reason for the dogged persistence becomes clear.

Summary

As always, anything can happen … the trade could fall apart.

That’s true.

However, probabilities for continued market downside are increasing, not decreasing.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Possibly, FATE(AL)

September 2, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, BEAM, Biotech, FATE, LABD-22-05, Positions, SPBIO, TDA-LABD-22-02, The Maverick of Wall Street, TWST

Trend-Lining @ -99%, Annualized

Is biotech about to go ‘flat-line’?

It’s not just biotech.

As The Maverick of Wall St. presents in his latest video, linked here … the entire market is poised for its next leg down.

In that video, estimates for that next leg are anywhere from -30% to -90%.

Fate Therapeutics FATE, Daily

FATE, is one of our ‘three amigos‘ of the sector, SPBIO.

The daily chart shows a confirmed, multi-hit trend line that’s declining at over -99%, annualized

FATE, isn’t the only one in the ‘- 99%’, crowd

TWST, is also trending lower at -99%, and BEAM, is running a close second at -98%, annualized.

Summary

Today, Friday (mid-session), is the last trading day before a holiday weekend.

During such days, we typically have an upward (low volume) bias.

With that, there’s still just a bit more trading room for FATE to contact the right side trendline.

Of course, what happens next will be the important part.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tech Talk, Biotech SPBIO

August 24, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-05, SPBIO, TDA-LABD-22-02, Tech Talk

Standard Fibonacci Test

If biotech’s reversing to the downside, then it’s behaving normally.

As we’ll see below, today was a standard 50%, Fibonacci retrace on the daily.

There’s an added bonus of 1 : 1, correlation on the corrective wave up to that 50%; shown on the hourly chart.

Just to get our bearings, we’ll present the longer time frame, the weekly below.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly

Next, we’ll get closer in on the daily.

Observe the Fibonacci retrace from the recovery high (8/11/22), the interim low (8/22/22), and today’s potential retrace high.

The next chart is a zoom of the retrace area

Bonus: Hourly Chart w/ Fibonacci Projection

Corrective waves follow an ‘a-b-c’ pattern with each having Fibonacci relationships between themselves.

The hourly chart below has the retrace from the 8/22/22, interim low.

The current location of the top of ‘wave c’, is a near perfect 1 : 1, ratio of the initial ‘wave a’.

The zoom chart below attempts to provide detail on where the wave terminations were identified.

The left blue arrow is the top of corrective wave ‘a’.

The right-side blue arrow is the bottom of wave ‘b’ and the beginning of wave ‘c’.

Summary

So, what does that all mean?

We’re at an inflection point.

If SPBIO has retraced 50%, of its initial leg down from a long term high, then expectations are for continued downside action.

The fact we had a countertrend move that mapped out a near perfect 1 : 1, a-b-c correction, points probabilities to the downside as well.

However, in the market, there are no guarantees.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Three Amigos of Biotech

August 20, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, BEAM, FATE, IBB, LABD, LABD-22-05, MRNA, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, TDA-LABD-22-02, TWST, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

BEAM, TWST & FATE

It looks like having a real (positive) P/E, may be about to be important.

The prior biotech update said that so far, no P/E, negative P/E, and ‘no money down’ was not affecting the sector.

That is, until now.

Well, ok. I made up the ‘no money down’, part. 🙂

That little jest does not take away from the fact, biotech SPBIO, and its top three weightings, BEAM, TWST and FATE, have all reversed, decisively to the downside.

For the week just ended, BEAM is down – 22.86%, TWST down – 19.18%, and FATE down – 14.16%.

Back at the ranch in the IBB index, Moderna (MRNA) is also down – 14.65% for the week.

So, we have confirmation the entire industry is now continuing its downward course.

Contrast the reversal of index SPBIO, at – 7.04%, with S&P (SPY) at – 1.16%, and the market itself is telling us where to go for opportunity (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this point, all three amigos (BEAM, TWST, FATE) are in downward trading channels.

Trading channel for BEAM is the most aggressive. The weekly chart is below.

Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) Weekly

If BEAM maintains its channel for the rest of this year, the chart below shows the target area(s) for price action.

The coming week may let us know if this channel will be confirmed or negated.

Recall, the S&P is topping out and appears to be reversing.

Goldman says the squeeze is over but that ‘downside is limited’.

We’ll see.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Moderna (MRNA) Channel

August 17, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, IBB, LABD, LABD-22-05, MRNA, Positions, SPBIO, TDA-LABD-22-02 1 Comment

Chief Cook & Bottle Washer

We’re about forty minutes into the session; Moderna (MRNA) has just confirmed the up-thrust reversal discussed in the last update.

It took seven trading days for MRNA, to post a new weekly low below 160.06.

That was plenty of time to perform research like finding this bullish outlook and deciding for oneself, whether to be bull or bear.

This update is brief.

Two charts of MRNA, are shown below.

Price action’s in a channel with the right side declining at approx: – 93.7%, annualized.

Moderna MRNA, Weekly Bar

Compressed version.

We’re using MRNA, as the proxy for the biotech sector.

The previous report showed a weak 23.6%, retrace and potential reversal.

With today’s print below 160.06, it looks like an initial confirmation of the right-side trend line (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech’s, Jaw-Dropping Volume

August 13, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, David Weis, LABD, LABD-22-05, Positions, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TDA-LABD-22-02, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Bears Capitulate

According to this, just out on ZeroHedge, that’s what’s happened.

As we’ll see below, there’s certainly something unprecedented going on, specifically in biotech.

The prior update made the argument, biotech SPBIO, has a unique distinction that’s showing up on the leveraged inverse fund LABD, shorting the sector.

For illustration purposes, we’re going to do a little ‘trick’.

The weekly close of SPBIO, is shown below.

This index does not provide volume but we’re going to ‘fix’ that by putting in the lower panel, weekly volume for leveraged inverse fund LABD.

It’s clear, as SPBIO reached all-time highs and reversed, short activity via LABD picked up significantly.

However, the past several weeks tells us from a Wyckoff perspective, something major could be about to happen.

As SPBIO, has moved counter-trend higher, activity going short (via LABD) has gone off the scale.

Spring-To-Up-Thrust

If the unprecedented volume activity weren’t enough to draw attention, we also have a repeating set-up that’s well, repeating; Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

With the idea originally obtained from the late Daivd Weis, later confirmed time and again, it’s a unique (high probability) characteristic of market behavior.

That’s where we are now.

SPBIO: Up Close & Technical

It may be hard to see in the above chart.

The next one, moves closer-in.

The upward advance of SPBIO slowed dramatically last week, closing up just +1.68%, for the week.

Contrast that move with the week prior at +13.83%, and the slowdown is evident.

All Hands, On Deck

Figuratively speaking, everything’s been dropped to focus exclusively on this sector. It’s obvious, what’s going on at this juncture is unprecedented.

That goes for the rest of the markets as well.

However, this sector alone, is telling us to ‘look here’; potentially setting up for a major reversal.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Follow The Money’

August 12, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-05, Livermore, Positions, SPBIO, TDA-LABD-22-02, The Speck, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Well, Almost … Now, It’s ‘Follow The Volume’

‘Follow the money’ was the clue back in the days of the Watergate scandal.

To unravel the secrets of the break-in, you had to follow the money trail.

Not much has changed since then; except this time around it’s important to look at the volume as well.

The 3X Inverse List

Compiled below, is a list of triple-leveraged inverse funds.

Only one (in bold) has recently posted record breaking volume day after day and week after week.

BNKD, DRV, EDZ, FAZ, LABD, SMDD, SOXS, SPXS, TMV, TZA, WEBS, YANG

From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint and from the volume itself, LABD is clamoring for attention.

The daily chart shows us volume is off the scale.

Biotech SPBIO, 3X Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily

No other leveraged inverse fund’s chart (in the above list) has this look.

Somebody, Always Knows ‘Something‘

Wyckoff wrote back in the day, ‘insiders’ can’t leave well enough alone; their greed is too great to keep under control.

They take their information and act accordingly.

Our job is to look for those actions, decipher them, and then ourselves, act accordingly.

Who Could It Be Now?

So, what could it be that would cause ‘insiders’ (and professional speculators) to focus nearly exclusively on biotech and go short the sector.

Hmmm, just what could it be?

Well, the mainstream media doesn’t seem to have a clue either. It’s all a big ‘mystery’ to them (although cracks are appearing).

It’s The ‘What’ … Not The ‘Why’

Both Livermore and Wyckoff admonished us not to focus on the why of market movements. The ‘why’ will always come out later, after the fact.

They were concerned with ‘what’ is happening; is price moving up, down, or going sideways in accumulation.

Summary

There’s no mistake based on the chart of LABD above, something major, potentially long-term, is setting-up in the biotech (SPBIO) sector.

The chart itself tells us to focus specifically on this area (not advice not a recommendation).

With that, we’re about mid-way through today’s session.

Price action appears to be going through a test of yesterday’s reversal.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279