Category Archives: $SPSIBI

Biotech Looks Ready … For Lower

March 5, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, GDXJ, JDST, JDST-25-02, LABD, LABD-25-02, Positions, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI 2 Comments

Breaking Down … Finally?

You have to wonder, is the curtain ever going to be pulled back on biotech?

If we use the empirical trading adage, ‘When price goes south, bad news comes out’, we may be getting close.

Biotech XBI, has gone sideways for months; oscillating in a trading range; that is, until now.

Biotech XBI, Daily

Two charts are presented. The first is a compressed view of the daily action, showing the trading channel.

The second is a closer look, with potential down-trending channel.

The two magenta lines correspond to the blue lines in the first chart.

Note how XBI, penetrated support and by definition, entered a Wyckoff ‘spring’ condition.

The market response was to initiate a rally but today, that rally appears to be failing (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

First, some housekeeping.

Short trade on miners GDXJ, JDST-25-02, was closed at about break-even.

As of this post (11:48 a.m., EST) GDXJ, is just penetrating resistance at 51 to 51.5 … a potential up-thrust set-up.

Now, on to biotech

Short trade initiated in biotech via LABD, labeled as LABD-25-02, with stop at the LABD session low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … Dead at Resistance

January 17, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DRV, DRV-25-01, IYR, LABD, LABD-25-01, Real Estate, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Repeating Set-Up

Real estate (IYR) has pushed higher above resistance and stopped dead; currently trading in a very narrow range.

It wouldn’t be all that interesting if price action was not in a repeating set-up:

Wyckoff Spring-to-Up-Thrust

Click on the side bar under the same name to see all posts related to this set-up.

Note: A set-up does not guarantee anything.

It’s just a market observed phenomenon that may result in a directional move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Real Estate IYR, Daily

There it is:

This is what’s called The Danger Point®

The risk of being wrong on a short position is at its least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning (updates)

Biotech XBI is spending a lot of time hovering around support and not progressing downward (no matter all the Fibonacci correlations).

With that, LABD-25-01 was closed at slightly above break even (not advice, not a recommendation).

Real estate IYR was entered short early in the session via leveraged inverse DRV, as trade DRV-25-01. Stop for the trade is currently the session low. (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Economic ‘Implosion’

January 15, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Great Depression 2.0, LABD, LABD-25-01, SPBIO, Uneducated Economist, Wyckoff, XBI, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Collapsing On Several Fronts

‘Retail’, selling silver, link here.

Jewelry whacked, link here.

Loan Shark, link here.

You know it’s bad when booze takes a hit, link here and here.

Producer prices launch higher, link here.

Lumber prices collapse, again, link here.

Travel restrictions, link here.

Then, there are ‘valuations’, link here.

Also then, there’s this, link here.

Lastly, short squeezes and liquidity traps … bear market behavior, link here.

Speaking of ‘short squeeze’, we had biotech do just that in the pre-market (and regular) session.

Biotech XBI, Daily

If it really is/was a short squeeze, once shorts are covered, the expectation is for price to continue lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Included in the chart, is a bit of insight you’re not likely to find anywhere else.

Note the distance of each retrace after a leg down. Less each time and Fibonacci multiples.

As stated yesterday, XBI posted outside down. That means price action penetrated the lows of the prior session and closed lower.

As wild as it may seem, penetrating the lows and closing lower, put XBI in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

That’s what we saw with today’s action.

As this post is being created (11:45 a.m., EST), XBI action continues to erode to the downside currently trading at the 87.60 – area.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Downside Leader … Biotech

January 14, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, IBB, IWM, LABD-25-01, Russell 2000, SPBIO, TZA, TZA-25-01, Wyckoff, XBI, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Confirming, Right-Side Channel

It’s a recurring theme with biotech.

Over and again, this sector (IBB, XBI) is not participating in tandem with the other major indices.

Today’s pre-market mayhem higher over supposed slower outlays of possible trade tariffs to happen some-time, some-day, caused the major indices to launch upward. 🙂

Well, everybody seemed to be blasting higher except one sector, biotech.

Wyckoff Directed Action

No matter what the ‘narrative’ may be, Wyckoff analysis directs us to look at what the market is actually doing, then interpret the action.

Early after the open, trade TZA-25-01, was exited, +8.9% gain, short position opened in biotech via LABD, Trade: LABD-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

Today posted outside down, taking out both the high and low of the prior session.

Note the trading channel and width, Fibonacci 13-Days.

Also note the two ‘breakaway gaps’. The second one on January 10th, much wider than November 12th, last year.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Dow … Down

January 2, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DIA, Dow 30, DXD, DXD-25-01, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI Tags: , ,

Adjusting The Short(s)

For the Dow 30, the ‘January Effect’, lasted less than an hour.

From then on, it’s been decisively down.

The biotech sector on the other hand, was and is still (as of 1:30 p.m., EST) higher for the day.

Trade LABD-24-21, was exited with +14.52%, profit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Dow 30 (DIA)

Price action is posting outside-down for the day with just over two-hours before the close.

The important part, Dow (DIA) upside was limited when compared to biotech.

Wyckoff said a century ago, we must adhere to what the price action is telling us; no matter our ‘opinion’, the action is always right.

With that said, short trade DXD-25-01, was initiated (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech, Accelerates … Down

December 31, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, Livermore, SPBIO, XBI, ZeroHedge

A New Trendline?

Well, ladies and gentlemen, it’s like the Keystone Cops out there.

One side doesn’t think anything bad is going to happen.

The other side, says there’s an implosion coming, if not already here.

Yet another, somewhat honest, saying it doesn’t know but that it will be ‘messy’.

How about we just look at what the market’s actually telling us. That’s a novel idea. 🙂

Iterative Process

As the year comes to a close, it’s (now) obvious, what took place for most of 2024, was a process of iteration.

Working to position for the downside was not the question. Identifying the ‘best opportunity’, was.

Strategy Re-Cap:

Using Livermore’s insight, we assess ‘general conditions’.

With that, came the bearish stance. Then, what tuned out to be an iterative search for (short) opportunities.

That search culminated with trade LABD-24-21, still active (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, here we are.

Biotech XBI, Daily

We’re about two-hours before the close; XBI, has posted a new daily high, and low, threating with ‘outside down’.

We can see the potential ‘channel-within-a-channel’.

The Weeks, Ahead

The coming weeks may hint at what’s likely for the year.

If we don’t get a ‘January effect’ or it gets negated, that in itself gives us a bearish clue (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX or XBI … Which is ‘Right’?

December 28, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, LABD, LABD-24-21, Loeb, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI

Side by Side

Gearald M. Loeb, late Vice Chairman of E.F. Hutton, said it himself (paraphrasing).

‘If you don’t know what you’re doing (in the markets), you diversify.’

The professionals tend to have highly concentrated positions (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that, let’s look at how two markets have fared during the recent downside reversal.

SOXX & XBI, Daily, Side-by-Side

If you were to position short, which would you choose?

The decline is shown from the exact start-point (Trump ‘bump’) for each market.

Biotech declined -16%, semiconductors, only -10.5%.

More importantly is the rebound (thus far).

Biotech is extremely weak, with only a 23.6% retrace off the lows. Semiconductors have launched all the way back to a 68% retrace.

Why waste time and capital (and increase risk) on a market that’s not moving lower, as quickly as others?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Search For ‘Stop’

December 27, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, XBI

New Daily Low

With biotech XBI, posting a new daily low, we have a stop for LABD-24-21 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Adding to that, after attempting to identify several trendlines, it looks like one is (finally) being confirmed.

Objective

Stated in prior updates, this move has the potential of lasting longer than anyone would reasonably expect.

It literally took years, to set-up. However, that’s absolutely no guarantee.

Let’s add to that, forces are at work (think, RFK, Jr. et. al.) that may provide a backdrop for sustained pressure (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

As always with the markets, there are simultaneous (up/down) actions.

In one chart, we can see why trading (successfully) is so difficult.

We’re in a (potential) down channel while at the same time, we’re in a spring condition (upward pressure).

From prior analysis at the higher timeframe (weekly), the expectation is for the ‘spring’ action to fail (not advice, not a recommendation).

If it doesn’t, the stop will be hit and the trade exited (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Stalls at Resistance

December 24, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, XBI

Losing Upside Energy

Today was a shortened trading day, so there may need to be more (resistance) confirmation in the coming sessions.

With that, we can see the biotech index SPBIO, has stalled at resistance.

The chart shows there were five-months of support, broken to the downside, now becoming resistance

Biotech SPBIO, Daily


As stated in the last update, the market itself is not giving indications the current short position, LABD-24-21, requires and exit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Sector (pure) Detail

December 23, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, XBI 1 Comment

More Fibonacci Correlations

The sector index SPBIO, is shown in the chart below.

Although there’s no volume data, there isn’t any ‘transaction slippage’, or ‘management fee’ skew errors either.

As of this update (1:03, p.m., EST) the SPBIO (XBI) is trying its best to post a new daily high … attempting to grind its way higher.

For now, it’s not happening.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily

The channel shown, discussed in this update.

Not presented at that time, the apparent Fibonacci count from the left-most channel contact to the latest daily high contact (Friday).

From a trading perspective, from a position of being short this market (LABD-24-21), there’s no specific indication to exit the position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279