Category Archives: $SPSIBI

Downside Leader … Biotech

January 14, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, IBB, IWM, LABD-25-01, Russell 2000, SPBIO, TZA, TZA-25-01, Wyckoff, XBI, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Confirming, Right-Side Channel

It’s a recurring theme with biotech.

Over and again, this sector (IBB, XBI) is not participating in tandem with the other major indices.

Today’s pre-market mayhem higher over supposed slower outlays of possible trade tariffs to happen some-time, some-day, caused the major indices to launch upward. 🙂

Well, everybody seemed to be blasting higher except one sector, biotech.

Wyckoff Directed Action

No matter what the ‘narrative’ may be, Wyckoff analysis directs us to look at what the market is actually doing, then interpret the action.

Early after the open, trade TZA-25-01, was exited, +8.9% gain, short position opened in biotech via LABD, Trade: LABD-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

Today posted outside down, taking out both the high and low of the prior session.

Note the trading channel and width, Fibonacci 13-Days.

Also note the two ‘breakaway gaps’. The second one on January 10th, much wider than November 12th, last year.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Dow … Down

January 2, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DIA, Dow 30, DXD, DXD-25-01, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI Tags: , ,

Adjusting The Short(s)

For the Dow 30, the ‘January Effect’, lasted less than an hour.

From then on, it’s been decisively down.

The biotech sector on the other hand, was and is still (as of 1:30 p.m., EST) higher for the day.

Trade LABD-24-21, was exited with +14.52%, profit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Dow 30 (DIA)

Price action is posting outside-down for the day with just over two-hours before the close.

The important part, Dow (DIA) upside was limited when compared to biotech.

Wyckoff said a century ago, we must adhere to what the price action is telling us; no matter our ‘opinion’, the action is always right.

With that said, short trade DXD-25-01, was initiated (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech, Accelerates … Down

December 31, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, Livermore, SPBIO, XBI, ZeroHedge

A New Trendline?

Well, ladies and gentlemen, it’s like the Keystone Cops out there.

One side doesn’t think anything bad is going to happen.

The other side, says there’s an implosion coming, if not already here.

Yet another, somewhat honest, saying it doesn’t know but that it will be ‘messy’.

How about we just look at what the market’s actually telling us. That’s a novel idea. 🙂

Iterative Process

As the year comes to a close, it’s (now) obvious, what took place for most of 2024, was a process of iteration.

Working to position for the downside was not the question. Identifying the ‘best opportunity’, was.

Strategy Re-Cap:

Using Livermore’s insight, we assess ‘general conditions’.

With that, came the bearish stance. Then, what tuned out to be an iterative search for (short) opportunities.

That search culminated with trade LABD-24-21, still active (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, here we are.

Biotech XBI, Daily

We’re about two-hours before the close; XBI, has posted a new daily high, and low, threating with ‘outside down’.

We can see the potential ‘channel-within-a-channel’.

The Weeks, Ahead

The coming weeks may hint at what’s likely for the year.

If we don’t get a ‘January effect’ or it gets negated, that in itself gives us a bearish clue (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX or XBI … Which is ‘Right’?

December 28, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, LABD, LABD-24-21, Loeb, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI

Side by Side

Gearald M. Loeb, late Vice Chairman of E.F. Hutton, said it himself (paraphrasing).

‘If you don’t know what you’re doing (in the markets), you diversify.’

The professionals tend to have highly concentrated positions (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that, let’s look at how two markets have fared during the recent downside reversal.

SOXX & XBI, Daily, Side-by-Side

If you were to position short, which would you choose?

The decline is shown from the exact start-point (Trump ‘bump’) for each market.

Biotech declined -16%, semiconductors, only -10.5%.

More importantly is the rebound (thus far).

Biotech is extremely weak, with only a 23.6% retrace off the lows. Semiconductors have launched all the way back to a 68% retrace.

Why waste time and capital (and increase risk) on a market that’s not moving lower, as quickly as others?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Search For ‘Stop’

December 27, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, XBI

New Daily Low

With biotech XBI, posting a new daily low, we have a stop for LABD-24-21 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Adding to that, after attempting to identify several trendlines, it looks like one is (finally) being confirmed.

Objective

Stated in prior updates, this move has the potential of lasting longer than anyone would reasonably expect.

It literally took years, to set-up. However, that’s absolutely no guarantee.

Let’s add to that, forces are at work (think, RFK, Jr. et. al.) that may provide a backdrop for sustained pressure (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

As always with the markets, there are simultaneous (up/down) actions.

In one chart, we can see why trading (successfully) is so difficult.

We’re in a (potential) down channel while at the same time, we’re in a spring condition (upward pressure).

From prior analysis at the higher timeframe (weekly), the expectation is for the ‘spring’ action to fail (not advice, not a recommendation).

If it doesn’t, the stop will be hit and the trade exited (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Stalls at Resistance

December 24, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, XBI

Losing Upside Energy

Today was a shortened trading day, so there may need to be more (resistance) confirmation in the coming sessions.

With that, we can see the biotech index SPBIO, has stalled at resistance.

The chart shows there were five-months of support, broken to the downside, now becoming resistance

Biotech SPBIO, Daily


As stated in the last update, the market itself is not giving indications the current short position, LABD-24-21, requires and exit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Sector (pure) Detail

December 23, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, XBI 1 Comment

More Fibonacci Correlations

The sector index SPBIO, is shown in the chart below.

Although there’s no volume data, there isn’t any ‘transaction slippage’, or ‘management fee’ skew errors either.

As of this update (1:03, p.m., EST) the SPBIO (XBI) is trying its best to post a new daily high … attempting to grind its way higher.

For now, it’s not happening.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily

The channel shown, discussed in this update.

Not presented at that time, the apparent Fibonacci count from the left-most channel contact to the latest daily high contact (Friday).

From a trading perspective, from a position of being short this market (LABD-24-21), there’s no specific indication to exit the position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Massive’ Short Squeeze, Really?

December 21, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, XBI, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Hey, Rocky! … Watch Me Pull Hyperbole Out of my Hat

The financial press says, on Friday, the shorts got slaughtered.

Is that true, or just more hyperbole?

To find out, we’ll take a look at the active short in biotech XBI, and see if there was a ‘slaughter’, or something more constructive.

Biotech XBI, Daily

The last post inferred, ‘there’s no end in sight’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Is that still true?

A present, we have a channel (with center-line) whose sections are a Fibonacci multiple.

If the channel is still in effect and the next session does not decisively break to the upside, then we can see price action is testing and validation that right side.

The good part or scary part depending on one’s perspective, XBI is validating the ‘supply’ side of the channel (where selling occurs).

Way down lower, is the ‘demand’ side … way down.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Down … No End In Sight

December 20, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI, XBI-24-01 Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Parallel Channels

Moves that take years to develop, once started, can go on much longer than anyone would expect.

Depending on your viewpoint, biotech XBI, has been congesting sideways (in a range) from one-to-three years.

Either way, the current breakdown suggests the potential for a sustained down trend (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

Remember, Wyckoff said the market itself, will tell us what levels and trendlines are significant.

If the current (right-side) channel is valid, the market itself shows us a similar channel in the past.

Two things to note.

First: Record Volume

As far as known (source, TC2000), November 15th’s volume of 30.3 million, was the largest ever recorded for the XBI:

That’s ‘thirty-point-three’ (thirty-three), you can’t make this stuff up. 🙂

Second: Short Position

There were two attempts to short this market.

Trade: XBI-24-01

Actual, sell-short, closed with -0.40%, loss

Trade: LABD-24-21

Leveraged inverse fund LABD, currently open with +27.31%, profit (as of 9:02 a.m., EST).

Volatility & Leveraged Inverse

The objective is to trade short using LABD, for as long as practical (not advice, not a recommendation).

If the XBI begins to get volatile with wide swings and chop either up or down, slippage-decay on inverse funds becomes prohibitive.

LABD-24-21 may be exited at any time, without notice.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

All Jobs … ‘Fake’

December 17, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI Tags: ,

What’s The ‘Real’ Message

Like a scene out of Animal House, we have Tomfoolery going on with ‘official’ data, out of ‘reliable’ sources.

Turns out, at least in this case, the data’s fake.

Earlier in the year, we had 800,000 jobs. That was fake as well.

The message that most if not all have missed, is the market’s response to the fakery:

The markets have responded to revelations of fake data by doing … nothing. No wild swings, no major gaps lower or higher, nothing.

That’s the real message.

This site’s focused on what the market’s actually telling us, not what the (fake) financial press tries to tell us.

All of which, brings us to biotech.

Biotech Sector SPSIBI (SPBIO), Daily

We’re using ‘pure’ index (in this example) as the XBI, has minor differences, obscuring the Fibonacci sequence.

Price action’s consistent with establishing and confirming a right-side trend line (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, there has not been a new daily low … yet.

So, there’s still the possibility of breaking the downtrend (line) and morphing into something different.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279