Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Seven weeks ago, was this post, giving a ‘heads up’, gold (GLD), had just printed massive upward thrust energy.
A print like that, happened only once before, near the 2011, top.
From that top, GLD, traded in a range for over a year before heading into a sustained decline.
That decline lasted three years, GLD down -46%.
So, here we are. 🙂
We’ve posted massive upward thrust energy seen only once before, a potential top, sideways action for just over two-months; then, trend breaks down.
Sounds about right.
Now, all-of-a sudden, professionals may be selling (or set, to sell), link here (not advice, not a recommendation).
Gold GLD, Daily Close
We’re going to look at GLD, a bit differently. That is, the repeating pattern of Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.
Human psychology does not change.
Buying on the way down.
From ‘One Way Pockets’, first published in 1917, the author had access to client accounts, analyzing their behavior over bull and bear cycles.
From his findings:
Once a stock had reached its peak and started a long decline, that’s where most of it was ‘handed out’. Sold to the public as it was moving lower … then, lower, still.
Wyckoff seconds this truth; ‘those on the wrong side of the trade, provide (most of) the fuel, for the way lower’.
Short Term, Long Term, or Not at All
As this update presented, we’ve had a potential top indication for GLD that’s only happened once before.
The last time, it was over four years before GLD, bottomed and started the next bull run.
It’s impossible to know if this time is different.
However, price action itself, will tell us the next probable direction.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
If there ever was a reason for gold to launch massively higher, huge gap-up open, you’d think it would’ve been yesterday’s bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, right?
Seems like gold, currently trading slightly higher (up just +0.19%), now threatening to go negative, may be tired of the never-ending ‘sky is falling’ narrative.
The overall public does not (or refuses to) recognize, ‘narratives’ are part of the deception, part of the manipulation (not advice, not a recommendation).
Wyckoff said it over a century ago, ‘Until you can ignore the news entirely, you will never be successful in the markets’.
Of course, gold could rally from here. Anything can happen.
However, we need to recognize, gold (GLD), is not all that far away (just 1%) from the level discussed in this update.
Strategy First
Trying to ‘figure it all out’, is not the essence of Wyckoff analysis.
Wyckoff attempts to determine the ‘what’ of the markets, not the ‘why’.
With that, there are three open positions: all of them short (not advice not a recommendation):
CVNA-25-05, CRWD-25-05, and WMT-25-02
Tomorrow (Monday) pre-market, an update is planned for short-covering exits (if any) and stop levels.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Nippon purchase of U.S. Steel gets Trump’s approval for ‘planned partnership’, link here.
The ‘pattern’ begs the question: Can these upward ‘blips’ be sustained?
Blip Before Trip?
At this point, the answer to Boeing’s ‘blip’ from this site’s perspective is no (not advice, not a recommendation).
With that said, the short on Boeing (BA-25-02), could be stopped-out at the next session. Anything can happen.
Then, what about U.S. Steel?
U.S. Steel, X, Weekly
Price action has penetrated resistance which puts X, technically, in Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ position.
There are several differences between the potential short set-up for X, and the one for BA.
First, the ‘spring’ portion on X, is missing, or not readily apparent like what can be seen here.
What Is & What May Be
Secondly, in Boeing’s case, events have already happened; production problems, design problems, quality control, labor disputes, bond ratings, already present.
Short trade (BA-25-02) anticipates, when ‘the blip is gone‘, focus on all things wrong with BA, will return.
The difference with U.S. Steel, a short would be in anticipation of things not yet present, to appear, such as the merger falling apart or some other event that negates the scenario.
Taking the two factors into account, no ‘spring’ portion of the set-up and anticipating things yet to appear, we’ll stand aside on shorting X, for now (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Exxon’s is one of the large-caps in the Oil & Gas sector ETF, XOP.
The potential for (downside) reversal in XOP, first presented here.
As part of the prep work to position short, the question was whether to short XOP, or one of the big caps.
As you can be seen, since XOM-25-01, is in the sidebar, we’ve gone short Exxon during yesterday’s session (not advice, not a recommendation).
As the chart shows, there was a small gap lower yesterday, presenting the risk that it would be filled before action continued lower.
That might still happen.
However, with XOM down 1.83 pts., in the pre-market (as of 9:12 a.m., EST), upside probabilities have lessened.
Exxon XOM, Daily
We have what appears to be, a picture-perfect Wyckoff up-thrust, and reversal.
If yesterday’s gap-lower open is not filled, then it’s a ‘breakaway’ gap, indicating (probability for) much lower prices ahead (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
