Category Archives: ZeroHedge

‘Follow The Money’ … Eli Lilly

May 10, 2025 By in Health Care, LLY, Positions, Wyckoff, XLV, XLV-25-01, XLV-25-02, XLV-25-03, ZeroHedge

Exactly, What We’re Doing

At this juncture, the ‘money’, is heading out of Eli Lilly.

According to this link, LLY is the heaviest weighting in Health Care Sector, XLV.

Wyckoff analysis pointed to XLV, starting with this post. That short was stopped-out along with another (XLV-25-02), which was not discussed.

Thís update, let the site-visitor know (from the sidebar), there was a third attempt to short (XLV-25-03).

That trade is active and in-the-green (not advice, not a recommendation).

Confusion A-Plenty

Gold up, silver down, interest rates up, dollar down, then up, biotech down, drugs down, healthcare down, defense up; on it goes.

Then, what does ‘retail’ do? They ‘buy the dip‘

What ‘dip’ exactly, is that?

Let’s move on to LLY, and see what it’s telling us.

Eli Lilly LLY, Daily

Volume (churn) increased significantly from the earnings release on October 30th, 2024, onward.

There have been two ‘breakaway’ gaps (down) since the May 1st, earnings release.

It’s also possible there’s a trading channel.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Peak Gold?

May 7, 2025 By in Elliott Wave, GLD, Prechter, ZeroHedge

Are We There, Yet?

It’s been nothing but hysteria, for gold.

The following is just a partial list from the past few days:

Gold Soars To Another New High, What’s The Message? Link here. Website link here.

Gold Soars $145 in 48 hours as China Takes Charge, link here

What Is Gold Trying to Tell Us? Link here.

Bullion, Bonds, & Black Gold Bid, But Stocks Skid As Bessent Bats Down Beijing Deal Bets. Link here.

Short Dollar, Long Gold; But Goldman’s Hatzius Hedges Between Hard Data Catch-Down & Positive China Mood Swings. Link here.

Gold: Like a Cork in Water. Link here.

Whales And Minnows Swimming To Gold. Link Here. Website link here.

On, it goes.

Gold GLD, Weekly: Then & Now

Shown below are two charts. The first is back from 2011, at the last major top.

The next chart is now.

Back in 2011, the massive Force Index, was posted before the high; a Fibonacci five-weeks, before.

Looking at the current chart, we have another massive Force Index, with the same value: 1.8B.

If the market follows the example of the past, we’re in that ‘fifth week’, now (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Down … China Sells

May 1, 2025 By in China, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-10, Positions, SILJ, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

You Can’t Make This Stuff Up

Wasn’t gold (GLD) going to launch ever higher in some kind of dollar-destruction, de-dollarization, worldwide meltdown?

Well, it might happen (eventually), but not today.

With today’s GLD, gap-down reversal (dollar higher), the press is gasping, groping for direction as the Chinese of all people are selling in huge amounts, links here and here.

Weren’t they just recently buying in massive quantities?

Behind all the hype and hyperbole, the potential for (a gold) reversal was identified ahead of time, links here and here.

With that said, let’s review how this site positioned itself for today’s excitement.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

The current short position, JDST-25-10, was opened April 25th, then doubled on the 28th (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ve penetrated support.

Technically speaking, that puts GDXJ, in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position. An attempt to move higher from here, is ‘normal’ market behavior (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

April 27, 2025 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-10, Positions, Trump, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Gold & Silver, Update

We’re just about two and a half hours into the Sunday, overnight session.

Once again, it’s not necessarily about ‘what’s happening’, but ‘what’s not happening’.

Both Gold and Siver June contracts, GDM 25 and SIM25 respectively, are trading lower but have not made a new daily low … yet.

As of this post, silver is closer to a new daily low than gold.

The 24-Hour Market

As a reminder, some equities and ETFs are now essentially trading 24-hours a day (five days a week).

Leveraged Inverse Fund (for GDX), DUST is one of them.

The close on Friday for DUST, was 29.91. It’s now at 29.94, indicating some slight upward pressure (down on GDX).

It may be the immediate (upward) pressure on gold has been mitigated by this report (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold’s Parabolic Top

April 26, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-10, Positions, SILJ, SLV, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Mass Liquidations?

During gold’s (GLD) way to the top, or potential top, it has posted gap-higher, after gap-higher.

That is, until now.

This past week, it has come down to fill one of the gaps.

Is this the start of other downside fills?

Before we look at the chart of GLD, let’s review a prior commodity blow-off top.

We’ll chose silver (SLV), for this example.

Silver SLV, 3-Day

There’s a lot going on in this chart.

First, this is what a commodity blow-off looks like.

Second, once this happens with volume, there’s been a significant ‘changing of hands’; it takes a long time to recover.

In fact, here we are, fourteen years later and silver SLV, has yet to reach the levels of early May 2011.

Prices are still far below, even with non-stop propaganda, experts, and grifters cheering it on.

Now, we’ll put up the chart of gold GLD.

Gold GLD, Weekly

The last time GLD posted a Force Index of 1.8B, was back in 2011, just before the last major top.

It’s important to note, the huge reading in Force Index, did not come at the exact top. It came before the top.

We’re in a similar situation. The massive Force Index reading has already posted (not advice, not a recommendation).

Then, two weeks later, we have near record liquidations in the GLD, ETF, link here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Selling The Healthcare … Rip

April 23, 2025 By in Goldman, Great Depression 2.0, Greg Hunter, Positions, XLV, XLV-25-01, ZeroHedge Tags:

Wedge Formation

It’s a bear market; we have non-stop headline induced whipsaws, never-before seen extremes, massive downdrafts followed by (face-ripping) short covering squeezes.

Then, there’s the ‘fatigue’:

“Investor Fatigue Has Set In”: Goldman’s Desk Summarizes The Key Market Themes, link here.

Judging from the links below, the professionals (seem to) have an idea of what’s likely; the other side (the retail side), remains clueless or confused.

‘Depression Cycle Is Here’ Charles Nenner Warns “It Will Be Much Worse In 2026”, link here.

As Professional Traders Panic Sell, Retail Investors Just Can’t Stop Buying., link here.

The recent sharp recovery has shown us where to go for short-side opportunity.

One such sector, is the healthcare industry (not advice, not a recommendation).

Health Care Select Sector SPDR, XLV, Daily

The wedge is obvious.

Typical classical analysis market guidelines for wedge:

Whatever direction was the entry, that’s the (most likely) direction for exit (not advice, not a recommendation).

If there is a downside exit, we’ll discuss measured move(s) at that time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Breakdown … Part 1

April 19, 2025 By in Bonds, Goldman, TLT, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

The Big Picture

If things don’t change soon, the wheels have come off the bond market (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this point, it’s common knowledge the (U.S. Treasury) bull market of forty-years, ended in March of 2020.

It’s been nothing but rates ratcheting higher, ever since.

Recession Reversal … Where?

However, a strange thing happened on the way to the anticipated bond reversal … typically, a long-time indicator of an impending recession.

Just weeks ago, during the market meltdown with the largest trading volume ever recorded, bonds did not respond as expected.

The Blip

During that wipe-out, bonds (TLT) blipped higher into a false breakout, a Wyckoff Up-Thrust, and have since collapsed on the largest weekly downside (thrust) energy and volume ever seen.

Next update, the charts.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Curve Fitting’ Biotech … Part 1

April 17, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-08, Positions, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, The Speck, ZeroHedge

Fibonacci, First

We’re letting the market decide what support/resistance, trendlines, and Fibonacci levels are significant.

We’ll even make an attempt to pick the timeframe(s) that best describes current action.

There’s a lot going on in a market sense, as well as ‘behind the scenes’ with revelations like this, and this, and this.

With that said, we’re looking at the 3-Day chart and Fibonacci levels.

Biotech XBI, 3-Day

The 3-Day is being used; it best shows current trending action (planned for next update).

The XBI, has near perfect (Fibonacci) symmetry.

Price action has made its way back to the 23.6%, level, and is hesitating.

Watching the action in real time, XBI gives the sense it does not know quite what to do … is it in a pause, gathering steam to move higher, or was the massive squeeze, on Wednesday, the 9th, all there was?

Positioning

As stated in the earlier update, XBI action on the 15th, put it at The Danger Point®; the location where risk was least for a short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s been slow going since then (ratcheting lower) but the one thing XBI, is not doing … is moving significantly higher.

More trade discussion, stop levels, link here (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … The Next Leg (Down)

April 15, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-08, Positions, SPBIO, XBI, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

A-B-C, Correction

The market hits just keep coming for biotech.

First, it was this (RFK Jr., nominated, then confirmed), then it was this, and now, the latest is this.

While the financial press toys with the idea ‘the worst is over‘, (which might be true), with biotech, price action itself says it may be preparing for its next leg … lower.

Biotech XBI, Hourly

We’re drilling down to the hourly; it shows (as of 12:24 p.m., EST) a Fibonacci a-b-c, corrective retrace.

Wave ‘a’, was the massive short squeeze.

Wave ‘b’ was a test of the lows; then on to wave ‘c’, the same (net) distance as wave ‘a’, making it a 1:1 (potentially complete) corrective move.

Also note the ‘alternation’.

Wave ‘a’, was essentially straight up. Then, wave ‘c’ alternates and is a labored slow process, ratcheting higher.

We’re at The Danger Point®, where the risk of a short position is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Currently short, Trade: LABD-25-08, with stop at the LABD, session low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold’s Breathless Break … Higher

April 12, 2025 By in David Weis, Dr. Elder, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-09, Positions, SLV, ZeroHedge Tags: , , ,

Was Friday, The Last Gasp?

Another market, stretched to the extreme.

Will gold (GLD) pause or even reverse?

To answer that question, or at least look at the probabilities, let’s step away from the breathless, me-too herd, and see what’s really going on.

Silver, One Year Later

Before we get to what the crowd’s doing now, as a reminder, last year at this time (the crowd said), silver was supposed to be launching into a hyperinflationary breakout.

Remember that? Well, it didn’t happen. 🙂

This site posted for months, price action itself (SLV) indicated the probabilities were low for a sustained breakout, starting with this link.

However, there are times when the masses are correct. Is this one of those times?

Let’s take a look.

First, The Hysteria

To get a gage on what’s going on, we have a sample of the current mind-set, listed below.

‘Sell America’ Trade Sparks Gold-Rush, Dollar Crush As US Bond Yields Surge Most In 43 Years, link here.

Gold Euphoria, Bond Mayhem, Dollar Disgrace, link here.

The Asymmetric Gold Trade, link here.

Markets Live: Gold & Bitcoin Soar As ‘Sell America’ Trade Escalates, link here.

Citi’s Former Global Strat Head: Gold More Room To Run, link here.

Futures Flat, Gold Soars, Dollar Crashes After China Hikes US Tariffs To 125%, link here.

Gold Hits Record High As Dollar Dumps; Stocks & Commodities Remain ‘Tariff-ied’, link here.

Now, Reality, The Price Action

As with silver (SLV), we’re going to look at the characteristics of the gold (GLD) market to determine what’s likely to happen next.

Gold GLD, Daily Close

As David Weis used to say: “What do you see?”

The lower panel is Elder’s ‘Force Index’.

What we can see is that GLD, has met the characteristics, the set-up, that in the past resulted in a reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Hysteria on Steroids

Could gold go even higher from here?

Absolutely. Anything can happen.

When looking at the situation rationally, is this the spot where price action could stall, or even reverse?

As with silver, the price action itself says, conditions are in place for that potential (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279