Category Archives: ZeroHedge

Will It Bounce?

April 6, 2025 By in 1987, CVNA, KMX, Martin Zweig, ZeroHedge

Carvana, In Position

Yesterday, it was CarMax.

Today, it’s Carvana.

Before we get to Carvana, yesterday’s update also said, we’d have no shortage of ‘post-mortems’.

Well, here they are:

“Mr. Market Will Keep Searching (Lower) For A Put Strike” – Goldman Hedge Fund Honcho Warns ‘Trading Environment Remains Exceedingly Fluid’

Why It Should Not Bounce Here Yet

Why It Should Bounce

You can’t make this up. Those two headlines (above) were one after another on ZeroHedge.

That’s probably enough. You get the idea. 🙂

In the case of Carvana, let’s look at what the price action is telling us is the most likely event.

Carvana, CVNA, Daily

After-Hours on April 2nd, trading posted briefly at 243.6, within the purple oval, creating an ‘Up-Thrust’.

Last Friday’s action penetrated support and is holding.

Note the price range of that day’s bar is less than Thursday’s, with volume slightly larger.

For now, CVNA, has stopped dead at support.

There may be follow-through on Monday, but with the (YouTube) crowd and others expecting a ‘crash’, that makes is less likely (not advice, not a recommendation).

When a real expert warns of a crash, it may look something like this (time stamp 6:42).

Note the condescension from the other panel member.

Then came Monday, October 19th, 1987.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Craters on FDA News

April 1, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Bloomberg, LABD, LABD-25-05, Positions, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI, ZeroHedge

Someone, Always Knows, Something

One week ago today, was this (emphasis added):

If the trendline is in-effect, meaning the market’s hanging in mid-air in a false breakout, getting back into that trend may result in some dramatic downside action.

Well, we got the dramatic downside.

Biotech XBI, collapsed nearly -11%, and 3X Inverse Fund LABD, is up +38%, and climbing.

As Wyckoff said a century ago:

‘Someone always knows something … and that ‘something’, shows up on the tape.’

It turns out in this case, showing up on the tape, was this, and this.

Biotech XBI, Daily

The chart from the week-ago post, has been updated.

As is typical, the ‘reason’ for last week’s price action comes out later, after the fact.

Positioning

At this point, trade LABD-25-05, is being maintained (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Edge of The Abyss

March 19, 2025 By in CVNA, David Weis, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , 1 Comment

There Is No Bounce …

Normal market behavior when penetrating well established support, is some kind of bounce … higher.

What happens, when that doesn’t happen?

What does it mean?

Well, one way to think about it, is this link.

Experts Say: ‘There Is No Recession’

Since 1980, This Has Signaled The Lows Are In: Link here.

Is It Safe to Get Back In? Link here

Corporate Insiders Scramble To Buy Their Own Stock As Buyback Blackout Period Begins. Link here.

Last but not least, my personal favorite 🙂

Recession Canceled: US Industrial Production Jumps To Record High. Link here.

David Weis 1980s

Back in the 1980s, the late David Weis was a bond trader.

He published a series of trading articles using Wyckoff analysis; in one of those, this comment stood out (paraphrasing):

‘We considered none of these things …’

That is, stay focused on what the market is saying about itself. Ignore the press and any other distractions.

With that, we have Carvana.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

What can be said?

After penetrating support, some kind of bounce is expected … except, so far, it’s not happening.

This post is coming out before the regular open.

CVNA is trading a couple points higher (pre-market) but nowhere near the nearest 189-ish, resistance area.

The Fed has yet to announce their shenanigans for the day; that itself, could cause a bounce higher … or not.

While the press chases after squirrels and gold, the market itself (CVNA) is saying, if it can’t retrace higher but pivots down, it indicates significant weakness (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Going Short … In Style

March 10, 2025 By in Dr. Elder, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Great Depression 2.0, ZeroHedge Tags: , , 1 Comment

Knowing When, To Be In Fashion

Out in the mainstream, they tell us the smart money (maybe, even retail) is selling, or selling short, here, here, here, here and here

There’s also recession talk, here; couple that with utter confusion, here.

Then, if we do have a ‘recession’ (or depression) it’s time to blame somebody, right?

As Dr. Elder said years ago (paraphrasing):

‘When there is a change the market, there’s a lot of turbulence before action settles into a definable trend.’

Taking everything in aggregate above, that could be where we are now.

In Style

Some of the links above, are still attempting to make a bullish argument.

For them, it’s not quite time to have a bearish stance. It’s not yet fashionable.

For this site however, every trade (453 of them) for last year, 2024 (ex. UNG), was to the short side (not advice, not a recommendation).

By the time, the bear has fully clawed the market (if or when), it’s most likely too late for any low-risk positioning.

One market that may be acting as a defensive move, are the miners, GDX, GDXJ.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

GDXJ, is either slipping away to the downside or it’s preparing for another attempt at higher prices.

At this point (1:12 p.m., EST), the support/axis line has not been decisively penetrated to the downside, suggesting probabilities are for higher prices (not advice, not a recommendation).

Before anyone gets overly bullish, let’s also keep in mind, the high print at the left of the chart in October of last year, is still below the print discussed in this post. over four years ago (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners Hang In Thin Air

March 6, 2025 By in GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-03, Positions, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Push Above Resistance … Then Stop

As of this post (12:35 p.m., EST), the miners GDXJ, have pushed above resistance area noted in yesterday’s update

Then, they stalled.

With a backdrop of gold in the news incessantly, is there a short trade at this juncture?

Whether or not this is the place to make the bet remains to be seen. However, what we can see, is a push above resistance (Wyckoff Up-Thrust) and a narrow range bar.

That means short-side risk has been reduced (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

Short initiated via JDST, as JDST-25-03, with stop at the session low, currently JDST 19.93 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, What Could Go Wrong?

February 11, 2025 By in CVNA, ZeroHedge

How About That P/E, ‘only’ 32,000 !!!

A ‘Supernova’ P/E.

Will it blow up?

If so, when?

Earnings release, scheduled for the 19th (after-hours), link here.

Possible Outcome(s)

Here’s a hint of what’s likely to happen, link here and here.

So, one month after the election (and now that all is well) the ‘consumer’ is back at it; profligate spending.

The spending ‘surge’ may have spilled over into the auto sector; possible result, positive earnings for CVNA (not advice, not a recommendation).

You can almost see where this is going.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Carvana has just posted a new daily high.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A.I. … From Bad to Worse

January 29, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-03, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, ZeroHedge

Adjusting The Trendline

Now, all-of-a-sudden, it’s a ‘thing’:

DeepSeek Breaks the AI Paradigm, link here.

YeaR OF THe SeeK…DeeP SeeK, link here.

The Competency Crash, link here.

DeepSeek AI App Demonstrates Pro-CCP Bias, Influence, link here.

The list is seemingly endless. Time for everybody to pile-on to the new narrative.

However, it does beg the question, Isn’t ‘The Thing‘ somewhere on I-10, in Arizona? 🙂

Getting back to reality, chief cook and bottle washer Nvidia, we’re going to adjust the trendline (just a bit) from yesterday’s update.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

The objective is, maintain short, monitor the trend for potential break (and exit), wherever and whenever that may be (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s important to note, yesterday’s action was Spring-to-Up-Thrust; penetration of the prior day’s low and high.

Then, The Fed

Also note, we have the Fed coming up with more shenanigans in about two hours (as of 12:03 p.m., EST).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Treasury ‘Rout’ At End?

January 19, 2025 By in Bonds, Interest Rates, TLT, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

What Does The ‘Market’ Say?

According to this link, the downside rout in U.S. Treasuries is coming to an end.

Real or fake? You make the call.

Let’s go to the bond market and see what it says.

Long Bonds, TLT, Daily

When looking at the chart, we see a potential upside breakout (blip) from the wedge.

From an experience standpoint, extremely narrow wedge patterns posting near or at the apex before breakout, rarely if ever, produce a lasting move (not advice, not a recommendation).

We could get more of the ‘blip’ higher. However, a ‘blip’ is not a directional move. 🙂

Jawboning The Market

Anyone dictating what the market will or won’t do or what it should do (in the opinion of your website host) is misguided, or inexperienced.

The market itself decides what it’s going to do.

As Wyckoff said a hundred years ago (1902, to be exact), the market is moving based on its ‘own forces’ that are not connected to valuations.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Economic ‘Implosion’

January 15, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Great Depression 2.0, LABD, LABD-25-01, SPBIO, Uneducated Economist, Wyckoff, XBI, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Collapsing On Several Fronts

‘Retail’, selling silver, link here.

Jewelry whacked, link here.

Loan Shark, link here.

You know it’s bad when booze takes a hit, link here and here.

Producer prices launch higher, link here.

Lumber prices collapse, again, link here.

Travel restrictions, link here.

Then, there are ‘valuations’, link here.

Also then, there’s this, link here.

Lastly, short squeezes and liquidity traps … bear market behavior, link here.

Speaking of ‘short squeeze’, we had biotech do just that in the pre-market (and regular) session.

Biotech XBI, Daily

If it really is/was a short squeeze, once shorts are covered, the expectation is for price to continue lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Included in the chart, is a bit of insight you’re not likely to find anywhere else.

Note the distance of each retrace after a leg down. Less each time and Fibonacci multiples.

As stated yesterday, XBI posted outside down. That means price action penetrated the lows of the prior session and closed lower.

As wild as it may seem, penetrating the lows and closing lower, put XBI in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

That’s what we saw with today’s action.

As this post is being created (11:45 a.m., EST), XBI action continues to erode to the downside currently trading at the 87.60 – area.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Downside Leader … Biotech

January 14, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, IBB, IWM, LABD-25-01, Russell 2000, SPBIO, TZA, TZA-25-01, Wyckoff, XBI, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Confirming, Right-Side Channel

It’s a recurring theme with biotech.

Over and again, this sector (IBB, XBI) is not participating in tandem with the other major indices.

Today’s pre-market mayhem higher over supposed slower outlays of possible trade tariffs to happen some-time, some-day, caused the major indices to launch upward. 🙂

Well, everybody seemed to be blasting higher except one sector, biotech.

Wyckoff Directed Action

No matter what the ‘narrative’ may be, Wyckoff analysis directs us to look at what the market is actually doing, then interpret the action.

Early after the open, trade TZA-25-01, was exited, +8.9% gain, short position opened in biotech via LABD, Trade: LABD-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

Today posted outside down, taking out both the high and low of the prior session.

Note the trading channel and width, Fibonacci 13-Days.

Also note the two ‘breakaway gaps’. The second one on January 10th, much wider than November 12th, last year.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279