It’s possible, after ‘Day 55’, LABD (above) attempted to negate the uptrend (pushing out of the right side) … only to find itself a few days later back in the channel.
Looking at the big picture, could or will LABD reach the upper channel line?
Is that possible?
After the experience with oil futures going negative (last year) the first time in market history, it should be obvious, anything can happen.
If LABD’s in the trading channel shown, we’re still in the early stages of the move.
Today, the expectation is for price action to reverse; coming back to close (or test) near the trend line around 23.90 – 24.30.
If it does and then gaps higher tomorrow (Friday), thus confirming the trend, it’s potentially the last stop for low risk positioning (not advice, not a recommendation).
Otherwise, with LABD up 7%, as of this post, we could already be off to the races.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Yesterday, was an upward push that wound up being an ‘out-side-down’ bar (GLD, GDXJ, SLV) … a reversal in itself.
That’s not in the script. Or, is it?
At this point, the public’s literally redirected, manipulated, at will. It’s a sick game being played by all who control the media.
From a personal standpoint, I’d rather make some popcorn, take my red wagon full of fiat, go camp down around $800/oz., and wait.
The gold ice cream man may never show up. If he does, great.
If not, there’re other opportunities; at least I’ll not be one of the manipulated masses screaming inflation hyperbole if/as/when gold ratchets all the way down.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: The last two links do not verify the veracity of the referenced material. Be advised.
Momentum is building for some kind of ‘tipping point’.
We may be there now.
We’re looking for an avalanche of reports whose combined (fundamental and technical) effect is catastrophic implosion of the biotech sector.
Market Analysis:
The chart speaks for itself. It’s obvious biotech has reversed and could be in serious trouble.
The inverse fund LABD is up a stiff 10.5%, as of this post:
We may or may not have a trading channel as shown.
The right side trendline will need more confirmation. As always, anything can happen and the nascent move could fall apart.
However, what is known:
SPBIO’s (and LABD’s) pivot was called ‘to the day’.
The “Iceberg” notation references this report, where the probability of SPBIO downside at that juncture was presented.
That analysis was correct. SPBIO never looked back.
Positioning:
Our ‘project’ position remains open (not advice, not a recommendation). The correct stance under current circumstances is to let price action take LABD higher.
As Livermore said nearly a century ago, the hard part now is to ‘sit tight’. Let the market determine when the move has ended.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
With price action similar to the Amgen reversal, senior mining index GDX, is testing resistance.
As if taking a cue from yesterday’s report on gold heading lower, today we have gold and the miners deciding to head higher.
All is not what it seems however.
The GDX chart above, shows we’re already in up-thrust condition. There has been a sign of supply (selling overwhelming the buying) and now we’re heading up into a test.
Going back to this report on Amgen, it’s a near exact replica of price action; except it’s (apparently) taking place quicker.
Note the bottom of the ‘Sign of Supply’ is a Fibonacci 8-Days from the high posted on April 21st.
That would naturally lend itself to expect testing action to complete on Fibonacci Day 13, which is this coming Friday.
Remember, that as soon as everyone’s got it figured out (Fibonacci time frame) it changes to something else. So, if no one is really paying attention and still in the hyper-inflation bull camp, they’ll look at this action as a bull move; missing the reversal (when or if it comes).
Tests can fail as well. GDX could push through the resistance and negate the up-thrust.
As stated many times before, the gold market’s too crowded with too many rabid bulls.
This may be a good test and reversal set-up but we’ll stick with shorting biotech (not advice, not a recommendation).
By the way … biotech’s doing very well on the short side today … 🙂
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
No-one in the inflation camp wants to hear that … it’s uncomfortable to face the potential of being so wrong.
Albeit wrong in the short term but probably right later … after it’s too late. More on that farther down.
Just like the lazy (and complicit, we might add) financial journalist publishing the standard (speck blaming) propaganda for the day, so too are the hyper-inflationists, jumping on the most popular bandwagon in town.
Not even considering the potential for a retrace; admittedly, which could be short and sharp but significant nonetheless.
This site has presented several times, we’re in a situation similar to that of Genesis 41. It’s the corn and grain first … then gold and silver.
Just to back that up a bit before getting to the charts, we have the following:
Those so focused on stacking metals will likely be using that stack to pry much needed food, food staples, seeds and fertilizer out of the hands of those not willing to sell … at any price.
Why are the oligarchs not worried about the ‘little guy’ stacking metals?
Because there’re going to make it irrelevant … at least for just long enough to completely bankrupt, starve or ‘inject’ the middle class.
Moving on to the charts:
The title header said ‘big picture’. Here we are with monthly gold charts going back to the 1950s, time-frame.
It’s been a long … long bull market. It appears to have made a top at ~1,972 and is retracing … if only just a bit.
The second chart is the one that gives us pause. Consider the potential for a more substantial pull-back.
Markets like to retrace and test. It’s what they do.
That second chart is scary. It’s plain, the 760 – 780 area is a long time (monthly) support level that goes all the way back to 1980.
Absolutely no-one expects, or is planning for gold to get back to $800/oz, or lower.
Think of the irony. The ‘stackers’ (and maybe the rest of us), having to exchange actual money, gold and silver, for worthless fiat just so they/we can buy food to stay alive.
After the middle class stackers have exhausted their metals hoard, that’s when gold and silver will launch into the next bull phase.
It has been done this way (keeping the peasants under control), literally for millennia. The method works … why change?
Summary:
The intent here, is to at least recognize the possibility for the above scenario. It’s clear and becoming more clear every day, food is the weapon of choice.
The objective is to have enough food ahead of time; be in position to take advantage of once-in-a-lifetime metals prices should that opportunity be presented.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Remember the maps at the mall … that showed the layout and where you were?
Well, here we are:
In candlestick lingo, Thursday was a ‘hanging man‘ set-up.
Friday was confirmation with a lower open, lower close, and penetration of the prior day’s low.
Error Correction:
A prior update made somewhat of an error when it said ‘Of all the major indices, biotech on a percentage basis, is the downside leader.’
Sort of.
The Index Table below is updated to include gold (GLD) and the senior miners, GDX.
In fact, GDX is leading the downside.
From a trading standpoint, GDX has been ignored because it’s such a crowded market. Nonetheless, for different reasons than biotech (i.e. deflation), strictly speaking, it’s the downside leader.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 