Monthly Archives: June 2021

Biotech Targets

June 11, 2021 By in Biotech, Dr. Elder, IBB, The Speck 1 Comment

12:34 p.m., EST

Upside Breakout Eroding

Potential Wyckoff Up-Thrust (reversal)

Measured Move Targets

Starting with the (unmarked) weekly chart of IBB below, we see the current upside breakout.

We’re going to invert the chart and label the ‘resistance’ as ‘support’.

Inverting charts is a technique discovered years ago in a long since forgotten trading text; possibly Dr. Elder’s

The ‘inverting exercise’ is to help eliminate chart bias.

For example: If you see bullish no matter which way you turn the chart … there’s a preconditioned bias that’s affecting decisions.

On to the inverted chart:

What we see above, is a typical Wyckoff spring set-up.

Price action has decisively penetrated support (resistance on the regular chart) and is now eroding.

The distance of the trading range is shown as the dashed line.

Look at the near perfect symmetry.

Putting the range bar at the top of the trading range gives a measured move … right into resistance (support) of the next range.

Price typically moves down, two or three times as fast, as it moves up.

That’s why the professional speculators (throughout trading history) prefer down markets. If there are profits, they show up a lot faster.

Fundamentals:

Enormous pressure continues to build against the sector. You have to wonder what’s it’s going to take for the big break.

Just out last night, was this report from ZeroHedge. The CDC is having an emergency meeting to discuss ‘heart inflammation’ problems with the injections.

Let’s start there with a ‘safe’ topic and not discuss things like ‘dead within 15-minutes’ of injection.

Or maybe this one: A bloke gets himself injected and nearly kills two people with his truck a few minutes later.

The date on the video is June 11th. People are still getting this thing even with so much adverse reaction (death) information available?

The two narrating have a good point. What happens when a pilot is on final approach in bad weather, when he suddenly goes into an ‘event’.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech Update

June 10, 2021 By in Biotech, LABD, SPBIO

3:29 p.m., EST

A close up look at 3X inverse, biotech LABD

Being inverse leveraged 3 to 1, this vehicle is amplified; sector changes in character can be picked up earlier.

What’s clear is the net distance traveled by downward thrusts is narrowing … down to nothing.

It could be a pause before heading lower or it could be that downward action is exhausted.

As we head into the close, price action can be seen slightly retracing upward.

We won’t know if that’s all for the downside until LABD posts another (new) daily high.

Analysis Tip:

LABD made a new daily low during this session.

The interesting part; it had to post a new daily high (above yesterday’s high) to get to that low.

That’s the only way it could get enough fuel (i.e. create price instability) to push just 0.08-points lower … potentially signaling final exhaustion.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Dollar Divergence: Update

June 9, 2021 By in Biotech, Dollar, GDX, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IBB, LABD, SPBIO, UUP 2 Comments

2:37 p.m., EST

Dollar penetrated support and is reversing

Potential for sustained, persistent rally

Wide trading range

Looking at the weekly close chart, we can see the wide range.

In addition, there’s a significant bullish divergence that (technically) gives the dollar, UUP, enough energy to test the top of that range; a potential that’s completely opposite the current narrative.

A this juncture, silver, gold and the miners are still correlated.

Yesterday, a potential top and reversal in miners GDX, was identified. Today, it appears to be hovering and looking unsure of its direction.

GDX has not posted a new daily high or low as of this update.

A sustained dollar rally (along with the bond market?) would be unexpected given what seems to be apoplectic hyperinflation ranting.

Separately, in biotech, the market (IBB) has stalled to the upside in a higher than expected test. Inverse fund LABD, made a new daily low and it too, has stalled.

Downward thrust energy on LABD is dissipating.

Technical update for biotech, planned for tomorrow … market permitting.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Possible Blow-Off Top

June 8, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD, SPBIO

11:41 a.m., EST

Biotech IBB: Straight down in early session

Support at 153 – 154

If IBB’s going to test by moving up to underside of resistance, that support (153 – 154) would be a good place to start.

If we just had a massive short squeeze, support may not hold and IBB just continues on down.

The other biotech index, SPBIO, is performing in a similar fashion. Inverse fund LABD is up sharply as of this post.

Several updates on biotech, IBB and SPBIO have mentioned ‘collapse’.

A future update will provide some perspective on the potential downside for the sector

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold Miners Reversal

June 8, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners 2 Comments

9:31 a.m., EST

Gold and the dollar, correlated

Dollar’s set up for reversal and miner’s, GDX attempt to move higher, failing

Over the past few weeks, the bullish divergence case for the dollar has already been presented.

Now, it looks as if miners GDX has topped and reversed

Price action above shows that so far, GDX has not been able to get back above resistance.

Inverse fund DUST just opened higher +1.26%, at 15.25

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech: Break-out or Blow-off?

June 7, 2021 By in Biotech, IBB, SPBIO, ZeroHedge

2:41 p.m., EST

Massive volume in Biotech, IBB.

Price action penetrates resistance.

Heading higher or set-up for collapse?

It’s about 80-minuts before the close and already, IBB’s printed more single day volume than in the past four years.

There must have been a huge number of stops at the resistance area for price action to launch so decisively.

Now, as we get near the close we’ll see if it was just short covering, or if there’s really some kind of demand to hold and move prices higher.

The 4-Hour chart (below) shows a potential reversal as we head into the closing hour.

It’s the trader’s discretion on how to interpret and position (if warranted) in this environment. This site does not make recommendations.

However, based on the technical and fundamental data provided over the past year, we’re expecting at some point, a complete collapse of the sector; bottoming-out sometime in mid to late October, this year; not advice, not a recommendation.

If IBB continues to push decisively upward from here, meaning, tomorrow’s session is follow-through action, it will most likely (but not fore sure) invalidate the ‘collapse’ scenario.

We’re at the danger point

One of many other factors helping the bearish assessment is the release of this report:

Sell signal hits all-time high

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Random Notes

June 6, 2021 By in David Weis, ice-age-farmer, Random Notes, The Speck

The usual suspects for the week.

No. 1

“Intermittent reinforcement, is a hook.”

That’s what the late David Weis told me during a mentoring session years ago.

Being told a half truth, fools the easily fooled into thinking that maybe someday, they’ll be told the whole truth.

It’s a psychological hook that never ends.

The so-called news organization at this link, likes to act like it’s part of the opposition; It feigns surprise as it ‘reports’ on carefully crafted, selected, intermittent reinforcement topics.

Nothing happens at this level that’s not planned.

Nothing.

No. 2

Cyber attack at largest meat packer.

Just one of many hits taking place in the cattle industry.

The cattle livestock/ranching sector continues to be under increasing (planned, intentional) attack.

As Ice Age Farmer reports, both Colorado and Oregon are working to outlaw cattle ranching; making it too expensive to raise beef and thus eliminating the practice.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch … literally, there’s an independent meat processor near Fort Worth.

Personal anecdote below (skip to No. 3, if desired)

There’s a ‘hole in the wall’ meat processor in a town near Fort Worth.

It’s located well off a main road and next to several nursing homes. Vacant, weed-overgrown lots, surround the building.

You have to navigate a giant pot-hole in the dirt parking lot to get to the metal barn-like entrance.

Once inside, you’re standing on a cement floor and facing a long refrigerated display case … probably, 20ft – 25ft, long.

It’s at that point, you realize you’re not ‘inside’ but actually underneath a metal overhang that was attached to the outside of the main building.

From the amount of rust visible and the worn paths in the concrete, it looks like this ‘addition’ took place at least twenty years ago.

While I was there, a man who had driven from Sachse (pronounced Sacks-see) was there to pick up his order.

Sachse is on the other side of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. It’s over 60-miles away. Not far in Texas, but still.

This is the type of place that will process your typical deer or other game kill for the ‘Bubba’ type hunters.

That is, until now.

There’s a sign at the entrance that says because of the overwhelming increase in business, game processing will no longer be available.

That sign is right next to the “Help Wanted” sign.

So, that’s how it’s mapping out … at least on that day in this town next to Ft. Worth.

The infrastructure is fragmenting.

Extrapolating the example above, it looks like small independent ranchers and processors will attempt to pick up the slack … but it’s not likely to be enough.

The real constrictions to the food supply have not even started. This small hole in the wall, is already overwhelmed.

No. 3

One reported effect of speck injection is being termed “Jab Freeze“.

The link shows what that may look like. Source has not been vetted.

You be the judge.

No. 4

Nurse calls out her corrupt and cowardly co-workers.

At time stamp 6:53, she calls them “The Devil’s Little Helper”.

Taking money to knowingly inject people (and now, children) with a lethal concoction is betrayal.

I wonder if that extra pay amounts to ‘thirty pieces of sliver’.

No. 5

Don’t drink the Kool-Aide

Remember that?

Late Saturday night, an episode of “Corrupt Crimes” was aired that covered the Jim Jones massacre.

Did you know there were survivors? Want to know how many?

There were 33 survivors.

That puts the whole event in a different light doesn’t it?

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Lumber Crash … Economy, Next?

June 5, 2021 By in Lumber, SPBIO, The Speck, Uneducated Economist, WY, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Lumber futures’ follows familiar ‘crash’ pattern.

From a July futures contract high of $1,711/thousand board-feet, futures prices have crashed to $1,284/thousand board-feet, in less than a month.

As this ZeroHedge article states, the futures collapse was precipitated by delays in construction.

Those delays were because of … well, high prices.

Now, the cycle starts.

Delays precipitated the price collapse. That in turn, will cause more delays as construction entities wait for lower prices.

Those lower prices could materialize. Right along with project cancellations from contract loss, job loss, earnings downturns and on.

Personal anecdote below (skip to ‘Analysis’ if not interested):

Yesterday, a trip was made to the local home improvement store … the one with the orange logo.

During robust economic times, the loading area at the lumber ‘contractors’ end, is so busy that pickups, flatbeds and trailers, are lined up in double rows.

This time, walking into the contractors entrance, there were no customers in the loading area. Treated fence pickets were stacked two – three bundles high in rows. At the same time last year, there we none available.

Going inside and down the lumber isles, inventory was well stocked.

The treated 4X4s were available (although more expensive) and another re-stock bundle was available to be pulled from an upper rack.

Treated 4X4s, are high volume sellers at that location (Ft. Worth area). It’s a good gage of economic activity.

Last year at the same time, there were no 4X4s in that rack for several months in a row.

At the time, similar reports of such were being presented by Uneducated Economist. No treated 4X4s, anywhere.

In the lumber isles, there were just a handful of customers (mom and pop types) and absolutely no professionals or contractors.

The lumber carts, typically called ‘H-Carts’ because of their H shape, were plentiful and all lined up on the main isle. That’s also different from a year ago when it was so busy, customers had to go search for their own carts out in the parking lot.

There was one cashier and nobody in line.

This is all happening around 5:00 p.m., on a Friday.

One Friday does not a trend make … but it is a data point. The lumber area of this store on a Friday afternoon (when contractors typically get stock for the weekend) was dead.

Analysis:

We’ll look at one of the usual suspects in the lumber industry; Weyerhaeuser (WY).

On the daily chart below, it topped and reversed right along with the futures. Its had a decisive trend break as well.

If we’ve seen the top in the lumber futures and if we’ve just had a crash, the events that follow, play out like a script.

Prices stabilize at some point and begin a counter trend move.

Everyone (almost) is fooled into thinking it’s coming back … until another break lower. That’s when the real panic starts; in the market as well as the economy.

Biotech, SPBIO is in this position now

After the initial reversal, prices stabilized; then came back in a counter trend. Thus far, they have reversed at the 23.6%, level.

Summary:

It’s probably an accurate statement, that nobody really knows what’s going to happen as a result of ‘speck’ injection. Seems like all information could be compromised (controlled opposition) in one way or another.

However, what tends to repeat with high levels of probability are specific set-ups in price action.

Price action is truth.

Above, we see WY either traded at a particular level, or it did not.

Once a crash scenario (if that’s what we have) like lumber futures gets set in motion, it will be years and potentially decades before prices return to or exceed the highs.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Just Doin’ My Job

June 4, 2021 By in Biotech, LABD, SPBIO

1:31 p.m., EST

If there’s going to be a big move, it’s the market’s job to make sure you’re not in it.

We’ve already had the push below, and reversal from, established support on inverse biotech LABD, May 28th.

At this point, we’re in a test that serves two purposes:

Frustrate the impatient and run the stops on anyone that’s incorrectly positioned.

The circled area on LABD, in the daily chart is shown on the hourly below:

Anyone that set their stop at the low of Wednesday, June 2nd (in what looked like a good location) has been stopped out.

On top of that, note how once that location was penetrated, price action ‘stopped dead’ (pun intended).

That’s the key.

Once the stops are cleared, there’s no more energy left to move lower.

As of this post, LABD’s already reversing from this area; supporting the hypothesis.

Positioning:

Short position in biotech SPBIO, via LABD, is being maintained; not advice, not a recommendation.

Summary:

The more this market gyrates and attempts to throw off participants, the more it looks like something big is in the works.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Controlled Insanity

June 3, 2021 By in Biotech, LABD, MRNA, Project Stimulus, SPBIO

1:32 p.m., EST

It’s not ‘controlled opposition’

It’s controlled insanity

The masses (maybe all of us for that matter) have to be kept on edge just enough to be easily advanced to the next level of narrative.

Case in point, is this link.

It’s just one more piece of pre-programmed trash that’s attempting to control the public’s perception and direction.

“Globalists Losing Narrative”

Give me a break. Globalists aren’t losing anything. At least, not yet.

Markets & SPBIO

The overall markets are still hovering at all time highs; even as reports like this one, continue to show that everybody’s all-in on an unprecedented scale.

Evidently, they have no plan for down … where the real money’s made.

Moderna’s (MRNA) in its second day attempt to breakout higher; all the while, the index itself (SPBIO) continues to edge lower.

The 2-Hour chart of LABD below, shows a potential trend.

As with previous analysis comments, we’re looking for a trend the market itself, says is important:

It’s clear, the trend (above) has been repeated several times in LABD’s own price action.

LABD itself, tells us to pay attention.

The right side trend line might not look like much … but it’s rising at about +45,500%, on an annualized basis.

Positioning:

A break of this trend does not necessarily mean we’ll exit out Project Stimulus position; not advice, not a recommendation.

We’ve got the hard stop discussed previously at LABD 21.77; again, not advice, not a recommendation.

Summary:

While the retail traders/investors (the only direction they know is up) go collectively insane, we’re keeping under the radar and quietly maintaining the short positioning in biotech.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.