When looking at the chart of Junior Miners, GDXJ, it’s possible we could be in the midst of a massive terminating wedge ‘throw-over’ (not advice, not a recommendation).
We’re about an hour before the close; GDXJ, price action is beginning to retreat off its session highs.
Junior Miners, GDXJ, Weekly
Upward thrust (Force) is dissipating.
If action enters back into the wedge pattern, it’s typically viewed as a sell, or sell short signal (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Gold, silver, and the S&P are essentially unchanged (as of 6:44 p.m., EST).
Although it appears to be a quiet weekend, we should at least take note of the terminating wedge pattern in the S&P.
The S&P is probably the most computer controlled, most manipulated, most algorithmed (if that’s a word) market in the world.
From a personal standpoint, I do not trade it and have not for over 15-years.
There are better ways to engage and not volunteer oneself to get whacked every day by a mass of computer algorithms (not advice, not a recommendation).
With that said, we’ll look at it anyway. 🙂
S&P 500, SPY, Daily (segment)
We’re oscillating into a wedge pattern. A wedge typically occurs at the end of a move, whether it be up or down.
With the Nvidia earnings release out of the way, the tone of the overall market may have changed.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
From a $100,000 Jeep Grand Wagoneer to no-bids on used cars at auction, the car market’s getting hit from both sides.
While Carvana rival CarMax, reached all-time highs long ago, now down -60.34%, for whatever reason, Carvana remains a ‘mystery’.
Carvana CVNA, Daily
The horizontal line is the prior all-time high (376.83), set way back on August 10th, of 2021.
Up-thrust close high, to test close high, Fibonacci 21-Days.
From August 20th low, to test print high (Friday), Fibonacci 8-Days, putting CVNA, at 61.8%, retrace (not shown).
Positioning
Friday’s new daily low was the signal to go short. However, that short was not entered immediately.
Instead, we wait. The objective is to minimize the risk as much as possible.
Late in the session, 3:57 p.m., EST, short opened at 371.6412, with stop at the session high (378.54), for total ‘risk’ of 6.90-pts (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
So, here we are nearly on the eve of the most significant reversal, ever:
September 3rd, 1929
That is, maybe, until now.
Today’s downside action may turn out to be just a blip; much ado about nothing.
Or it could be the harbinger of a top. Maybe the top (not advice, not a recommendation).
Biotech sector XBI, appears to be losing steam while at the same time, being in up-thrust (potential false breakout) condition.
As of this post (12:10 p.m., EST), XBI is down -0.63%, and has posted a new daily low. Short position XBI-25-03, remains active (not advice, not a recommendation).
We’ll discuss this index and others over the long weekend.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
From a comment on this post, to this from ZeroHedge, now this from MarketWatch, it’s not too much of a stretch to say that things are … well, ‘stretched’.
Today is ‘Day 13’, from the last Nvidia all-time high; let’s look and see if we might get another all-time high.
Nvidia NVDA, Daily
We’re just a few minutes before the open.
We see the ‘spring’ set-up that’s been in effect over the past six trading days.
Will this spring lead to an up-thrust? Potentially the top?
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Each market session provides another data point, bull, bear, or congestion.
Yesterday’s position in XLF, was stopped out the same day with a minuscule loss.
That trade was an excellent example of operating at the market’s edge and maintaining discipline.
Another data point.
However, one market not making new highs, or threatening the current short position (yet), was biotech, XBI; short trade XBI-25-03.
So, let’s take a look at what’s really going on.
Biotech Sector SPBIO, Daily Close
We’re far away from all-time highs.
The Fibonacci retracements are shown.
At this point, we’re oscillating around the 23.6%, and in up-thrust condition.
The second chart zooms-in on the set-up.
Set-ups don’t guarantee anything.
They just mean the market has reached a point where risk could be at a minimum.
Bull or Bear
With the SPBIO (XBI as the proxy), we either have a breakout above resistance or an up-thrust as previously mentioned.
Until the market proves otherwise by making new daily highs, the condition continues to be traded as a potential (significant) downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The last update on Financial Sector, XLF, said it was in potential up-thrust (false breakout) condition.
Monday’s action was slightly down and today; we have a new daily low.
In addition, as we’ll see in the chart, all of this action is taking place below established resistance.
Financial Sector XLF, Daily
We’re at the ‘edge of the lake’, as David Weis used to call it. This is where the risk of being wrong is least.
Since the market’s posted a new daily low, risk on a short position is well defined, i.e. yesterday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).
Currently short this sector as XLF-25-06, with stop in the vicinity of XLF 53.58. After the close of this session, the stop (if not exceeded) will be moved lower to the high of today’s session (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
It’s no secret, Warren Buffet has been selling BAC, shares for some time; more recently, here.
The hard part is, how does one map that to price action?
Or does his selling have any material effect.
From a Wyckoff standpoint, we put that information in the background.
It’s there, we’re aware of it, but the focus is on price action itself.
So, let’s take a look.
BAC is a heavy weighting the in financial sector, with index tracking fund XLF, as a good vehicle for analysis.
That ETF just printed an all-time high this past Friday.
Financials XLF, Daily
Friday’s Fed announcement could be a significant infection.
Of course, the media is all aboard with a September cut, providing endless opinions on how to trade something that has not even happened.
What we’re looking for on this site, is some evidence of a reversal. We’re looking to see if price action stalls in not only the XLF, but the other major sectors as well.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 