Author Archives: thedangerpoint

Another Wedge … Expedia

November 29, 2025 By in 1907, APP, CARR, CDNS, CVNA, CVNA-25-17, EBAY, EBAY-25-01, Ed Dowd, EXPE, EXPE-25-01, Livermore, NFLX, NVDA, ORCL, SPOT, TEL, Terminating Wedge, UBER, Wyckoff 1 Comment

‘Ending Moves’

Back in the day, Jesse Livermore nearly went bust attempting to short the downside of what became, The Panic of 1907.

Stopped out time and again, he finally (according to Wyckoff) hawked his car to rase capital.

Form nearly broke, to closing out short trades on October 24th 1907, net profit over $1-milllion.

With that, we have a strategic picture, in focus.

During a recent interview, Ed Dowd discussed the +35.95% gap (and close) on Oracle, as a result of ‘projections‘.

The take-away (from him) was these types of moves are ‘ending moves’, not the beginning of a new bull run.

Since then, price action has fully retraced.

ORCL, is currently down a whopping -41.6%, from its all-time highs. Hardly a bull market.

We’ve presented eBay in a similar position.

Carvana, launched itself above resistance at Friday’s close. In so doing, got itself into another wedge.

Now we have Expedia, looking eerily similar (not advice, not a recommendation).

Like eBay, we’ll start with the long term, quarterly chart.

Expedia EXPE, Quarterly

The latest earnings release pushed EXPE up, contacting the upper trendline.

A gap higher and close of +17.55%, in one day.

EXPE has since backed off the all-time high; currently down about -8.5%.

Edge of The Wedge

The following is a partial list of tickers either forming a (monthly) terminating wedge, or have broken out to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation)

APP, CARR, CDNS, CVNA, EBAY, EXPE, NFLX, NVDA, SPOT, TEL, UBER

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Twenty-Year Wedge … eBay

November 28, 2025 By in EBAY, EBAY-25-01, Michael Bordenaro, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

Setting up for a Big Move?

eBay accelerated lower on heavy volume after its last earnings release.

In following sessions, price action attempted to recover, only to reverse lower (again) during the week of November 14th.

That’s where we are now; only this time, we’re looking at the long-time frame, the quarterly chart

eBay EBAY, Quarterly

There it is: A massive 20-year wedge (not advice, not a recommendation).

For the latest on how the ‘consumer’ is doing, this just out from Michael Brodenaro, link here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

At The Crossroads … Carvana

November 27, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-17 2 Comments

Where Risk, is Least

Carvana’s at the crossroads; The Danger Point®

Yesterday’s close, is a potential (significant) pivot-point.

A break higher, and CVNA has avoided the ‘terminating wedge’ (here), follows the trendline, on to potential new highs.

A break down, and we start a possible (swift) move, to much lower levels.

For a short position, this is where the (upside) risk is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily

In addition to the months-long terminating wedge (link above), we also have a smaller wedge.

Depending on how one draws the upper wedge line, yesterday’s action could be considered a ‘throw-over’ of the formation, typically an ending move.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Euphoria to Anxiety

November 26, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors

Grinding Lower

It’s been a Fibonacci 21-trading days since Nvidia’s all-time high.

As of today in the pre-market, we’re down -16.5% from those highs.

Of course, anything can happen and NVDA could recover.

However, as presented in this post, if you’ve ‘sold-out’, then what’s next?

Nvidia NVDA, Daily Close

Lower lows, lower highs; the definition of a downtrend (not advice not a recommendation).

The downtrend can end at any time.

For that to be apparent (at this juncture), NVDA will need to close above the high of this past Monday, at 182.55.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Pre-market … AMZN

November 25, 2025 By in AMZN, Dr. David Paul, XLY, XLY-25-01 1 Comment

Taking Out The Stops

As the late Dr. David Paul said, in this interview:

‘Put your entry where the masses place their stops’

We might see that (running the stops) happen in Amazon, during this session.

The last update is here. It surmised there may not be a Santa Claus rally.

Today, we’re at Fibonacci Day 3, from the lows of last Friday, 11/21.

AMZN, looks ready to post a new daily high … right where stops may be located.

Amazon, AMZN, Daily (pre-market)

The trendline mark-ups from the prior update are intact, except the right side trendline (‘supply’ side) has been removed.

The black arrow is where the pre-market (as of 8:19 a.m., EST) is trading.

The area between the magenta and blue dashed lines is what we’re looking for.

This is where the stops may be located (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, Watch

November 24, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, Semiconductors, SOXX

Carvana, as Well

It’s possible by the close of the day, both SOXX, and CVNA, will be in up-thrust (potential reversal) position.

As of this post (11:10 a.m., EST), the SOXX is literally screaming higher … but still below resistance levels.

As for Carvana, the 332.33 level has been discussed many times, link here and here.

A close above that level puts CVNA in up-thrust position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Uber ‘Breakdown’

November 24, 2025 By in UBER

Ease of Movement, Lower

Last week was a swift breakdown from a wedge.

For the week, UBER closed down -8.46%, a decisive move.

Now, in the pre-market, it’s attempting to test that wide (weekly) bar.

It may continue (testing) in the regular session.

Either way, for a short position, the stop is well defined; last week’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: Uber had been forming a top (dissipating energy) for two months before last week’s break.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

No ‘Santa’ for Amazon

November 23, 2025 By in AMZN, Ed Dowd, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XLY, XLY-25-01 3 Comments

This Year, is Different

As is typical for this time of year, the pundits are out talking about the Santa Claus rally.

We’re literally hours away (Sunday futures), from finding out if there’s even a chance of that happening.

One sector that’s not looking too well, is the consumer and proxy, Amazon.

Amazon AMZN, Daily

As can been seen, a wedge is typically a terminating pattern, signaling the end (or near end) of the move.

The important part, while there are small wedge formations, we’re also in a much larger wedge that’s broken to the downside.

Let’s zoom-in, and look at the far-right side.

The earnings blow-off was not only a wedge, but on a longer timeframe, a Wyckoff up-thrust as well.

Here’s the link to the Amazon press release.

There’s plenty of discussion about A.I. saving the day.

Ed Dowd has presented in his interviews, from an overall economic standpoint, the A.I. ‘excuse’ for efficiency improvements, layoffs, is just a ruse to cover the fact, demand is collapsing.

With that said, AMZN has broken the downside of its wedge and has potentially completed a test of that break.

With futures to open soon, we might find out (today) if downside action is to continue (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279


‘Comments’ for The Week

November 22, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Comments, NVDA, Ox Talks, Semiconductors, SOXX

Progression of Thought

The following links are a summary of market related comments (made on other channels or platforms) for the week.

This past week has been interesting, with potential kick-off, of the A.I. implosion (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tuesday

The crash of 1899 was in December. So, it’s happened before … (link here).

Wednesday

Tomorrow will (likely) be an interesting day. For the SOXX, a move above or around 294 – 296, will likely take out the shorts. (link here)

Thursday

Nvidia has already peaked (October 29th). Today’s action was a ‘test’ of that reversal. Watch to see if NVDA closes lower for the day. (link here)

Summary

The SOXX, never made it to the target range. Highest print for last Thursday, was 289.99; then, it collapsed.

Nvidia action for that day looked like a test; then closed lower for the day … then lower again, the next day.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Stop-n-Go, Congestion

November 21, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, CVNA-25-16, NVDA, Semiconductors 1 Comment

Fighting it Out

Carvana’s been fighting it out in a congestion area for over two weeks.

Before that, the chart shows long-term trend (and wedge), had already broken to the downside.

Looking at the totality of the CVNA trading range, from lows near 4, to highs around 390, the congestion action looks quite narrow.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

Note: The insert is an expanded view, showing the breakdown and test.

With release of NVDA earnings, the prior update implied the A.I. bubble may have officially popped (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279