Author Archives: thedangerpoint

Biotech … Bleeds Down

March 23, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-03, LABD-25-04, Positions, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI

Loss Of Upside

‘He’s Dead, Jim!’

While we can’t officially declare biotech dead like ‘Bones’ Dr. McCoy, we can say the charts below, paint a less than bullish picture.

The XBI, is so packed full of nuances, it needs at least two charts.

Biotech XBI, Daily

First, apparent weakness.

Price action’s only been able to retrace 23.6%, after penetrating support (blue line) and forming a Wyckoff ‘spring’ set-up.

On the far right, just below the magenta line, the grey lines show a minor up-thrust (reversal).

Next, we have a series of spring set-ups, that have failed.

Each time a spring condition is created, price action rises for a brief period, then collapses.

At the far right, the spring (shown in the first chart) appears to have failed; now subdividing lower.

Positioning

During Friday’s session, as price action began to rise unexpectedly, short LABD-25-03, was closed.

Then, late in the day after XBI appeared to have reached its high and reversed, a new short position, LABD-25-04, was opened (not advice, not a recommendation).

Obviously, the expectation for the coming week, is XBI to continue lower.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, ‘Testing … 1 … 2 … 3’

March 22, 2025 By in CVNA, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Test 1 Comment

Higher Close, Lower Volume

Carvana finished up on Friday, in a test of its reversal.

We’re now at The Danger Point®

This is the location where risk on a short position is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Risk is least because if CVNA continues higher, the obvious stop location on a short is just above Thursday’s, 196.63, high.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Thursday’s volume was heavy at 8.3-mil.

Friday’s volume contracts by just over 25%. That’s not a whole lot but it still fits the definition of a ‘test’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Just like the kid sweating bullets in the cartoon, you can literally feel the ‘tension’ in the above chart.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … ‘Out of Gas’

March 21, 2025 By in Biotech, CVNA, LABD, LABD-25-03, Positions, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Repeating Pattern

First biotech, now Carvana.

Yesterday’s mid-session update said Carvana’s posting a repeating pattern.

That pattern is what’s called a Wyckoff ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.

Even before, yesterday, this update said we’re expecting some kind of bounce.

Well, we got it; then, price action went on to post a potential reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Today’s session may or may not contain a ‘test’ of that (reversal) action.

Let’s go to the chart.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

There’s a lot going on.

As the chart notes, when taking the retrace measurement from the after-hours high of 310, posted during the earnings release, yesterday’s action topped out right at the Fibonacci 23.6%, level.

We’re about twenty-minutes before the regular session; CVNA, is trading lower by 3.6-pts.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Update & Carvana

March 20, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, CVNA, David Weis, LABD, LABD-25-03, Positions, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Bump & Run

We’ll cut straight to the chase.

Biotech XBI, pushed all the way up in the early session to close Tuesday’s gap.

Once that was complete, it’s now reversing to the downside.

Bottom line: LABD-25-03, is being maintained at trader’s discretion (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately Carvana, has just posted a repeating pattern (chart later): Wyckoff ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.

As Fred Sanford used to say. ‘This could be the big one‘ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Gut-Check & Channel

March 20, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, David Weis, LABD, LABD-25-03, Positions, SPBIO, XBI

Test of Reversal

Yesterday tested the reversal from Monday’s false breakout.

David Weis used to call such action a ‘gut-check’ to see if you could hang on to your (short) position.

Even so, today could be the more important day.

The question is: Will biotech XBI, post a new daily low, confirming the test or levitate on the next (perceived) health ‘crisis‘.

Biotech XBI, Daily

It’s about fifteen-minutes before the regular open. XBI, is trading lower, giving us a hint, yesterday completed the test (not advice, not a recommendation).

If we get a new daily low, it’s possible there’s a trading channel with pivot point at Fibonacci 21-Days.

Positioning

The side bar shows an active short: LABD-25-03.

As a result of yesterday’s action, the stop on that trade has been moved higher to LABD 7.58 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Edge of The Abyss

March 19, 2025 By in CVNA, David Weis, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , 1 Comment

There Is No Bounce …

Normal market behavior when penetrating well established support, is some kind of bounce … higher.

What happens, when that doesn’t happen?

What does it mean?

Well, one way to think about it, is this link.

Experts Say: ‘There Is No Recession’

Since 1980, This Has Signaled The Lows Are In: Link here.

Is It Safe to Get Back In? Link here

Corporate Insiders Scramble To Buy Their Own Stock As Buyback Blackout Period Begins. Link here.

Last but not least, my personal favorite 🙂

Recession Canceled: US Industrial Production Jumps To Record High. Link here.

David Weis 1980s

Back in the 1980s, the late David Weis was a bond trader.

He published a series of trading articles using Wyckoff analysis; in one of those, this comment stood out (paraphrasing):

‘We considered none of these things …’

That is, stay focused on what the market is saying about itself. Ignore the press and any other distractions.

With that, we have Carvana.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

What can be said?

After penetrating support, some kind of bounce is expected … except, so far, it’s not happening.

This post is coming out before the regular open.

CVNA is trading a couple points higher (pre-market) but nowhere near the nearest 189-ish, resistance area.

The Fed has yet to announce their shenanigans for the day; that itself, could cause a bounce higher … or not.

While the press chases after squirrels and gold, the market itself (CVNA) is saying, if it can’t retrace higher but pivots down, it indicates significant weakness (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Hang On To Your Shorts

March 18, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, GLD, LABD, LABD-25-03, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, XBI

Weaker And Weaker, Still

Look! … Squirrel!

While everyone else is focused on a ‘tradable bounce’ in the S&P, with others in a freak-out on gold, back at the ranch, biotech has continued to sub-divide lower, getting weaker and weaker, still.

Note: All trades presented on this site during 2024 (ex: UNG), and 2025, have been to the short side (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Weekly

The chart highlights the Fibonacci retrace levels.

A Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace is rare; markets typically like to go to 38.2%, or 50%.

If this retrace holds, it indicates significant weakness in the sector (not advice, not a recommendation).

As can been seen in the side-bar, current biotech short is LABD-25-03, with stop at yesterday’s LABD, session low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Not shown on the chart, a trading channel that appears to be in-effect.

Update planned for that, later.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CarMax Breakdown

March 17, 2025 By in KMX

Coming Back To Test

After two-and-a-half years, CarMax, finally breaks down out of its wedge.

Now, it looks like it’s coming back up to test resistance (not advice, not a recommendation).

As we’ll see, buried within the price action of that breakdown, is a Fibonacci time correlation.

CarMax KMX, Weekly

Two and a half years coiling in a wedge, then a breakdown, suggests whatever’s coming next may be a sustained move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tests can pass or fail. In the markets, anything can happen.

The up-thrust spike was covered here and (the potential) ahead of time, here and here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Sell The News?

March 16, 2025 By in David Weis, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-05, Positions, SILJ, SLV, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Hours Away

We’re just hours away from the Sunday futures open.

Yesterday, military attacks on Houthi rebels have commenced; links here, here, and here.

Middle East conflict escalates.

The question is, will the markets see it that way?

Will it be ‘escalation’, with gold futures ever higher, or is it ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’?

If we’re looking at potential gold/silver related downside, then let’s review the miners; they’ve been in a bear market for nearly five years (not advice, not a recommendation).

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Weekly Close

Before getting to the right side of the chart, let’s start with the ‘Time’s Up’, arrow; a reversal and decline over 50%.

That ‘arrow’ corresponds to this post.

At this point, gold and the miners appear to be stretched with silver currently in non-confirmation.

If it was really (simple) inflation, it would be like the 1980s, with both moving in tandem.

Then & Now

With that, what has GDXJ, done in the past?

The chart itself shows us it tends to exhibit a repeating pattern of Wyckoff ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.

We may know within hours if gold, silver, and the miners, are going to reverse or launch into some kind of extended rally (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia Target

March 15, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX

Then, The Fed

There are four more trading days left to compete the bar on the 8-Day, chart of Nvidia, below.

What are the chances it continues on higher into resistance?

If it does, it’s the 50% retrace of the entire move from highs on January 7th, to the lows of March 11th.

Then, The Fed

We have a Fed meeting this coming week, 18th and 19th.

Could any announcement be used as an ‘excuse’ to propel the market higher … straight into resistance?

Nvidia Fibonacci 8-Day

Who uses an 8-Day chart?

Not anybody I know 🙂

If Nvidia continues to rally, one would expect the SOXX, to move higher as well … potentially creating yet another short opportunity (not advice, not a recommendation).

Lastly, Ed Dowd

Here’s a link to a recent interview. At time stamp 37:48, he spills the beans on The Fed.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279