Category Archives: GDX

Newmont’s New Highs

March 8, 2022 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, NEM, SLV, The Speck 4 Comments

How Long Will This Last ?

Looking at the charts below, the amount capital being thrown at the last man standing, NEM, is stunning.

A real sustainable precious metals (and stocks) bull market typically starts with the weakest sectors.

They are the ones in the worst financial shape. They are the ones to benefit the most from an increase in metals prices.

That’s not happening.

Instead, we have what looks to be a market thinning out, on a massive scale.

Everything being poured into the leader … Newmont.

The charts below are from Monday’s close. Scroll up and down to get a ‘feel’ for what’s really happening.

It’s a bull market, non-confirmation on a huge scale.

Basically, the rest of the market, the rest of the Senior Miners and Juniors, don’t believe current conditions are sustainable.

How could they be?

Let’s get real and pose even the most basic questions.

How are these operations going to get spare parts or new equipment for their operations? How are they going to feed their employees?

Lastly, what about the ones that have forced their workforce to be injected?

Newmont (NEM), Weekly Close

Senior Miners, GDX, Weekly Close

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly Close

The price action alone, tells us capital is flowing out of all sectors and into Newmont (NEM).

Just to make sure the herd continues to herd; that no-one else, is presenting this information, here’s a brief list of recent ‘analysis’.

Me-Too: Gold To The Moon

Will Gold give a Massive Breakout From it’s Sideways Trend ? Lyn Alden Prediction

Gold & Silver Breakout | On Track to Go Higher

GOLD Prices Will Not Stop RISING!! BUY GOLD Before This Happens.. – Chris Vermeulen | Prediction

Gold Breakout: Breakaway Gaps Confirmed

Silver Will Hit $1200/OZ as Russia Invades Ukraine – Lynette Zang | Silver Price Prediction

Gold price rally will power to $2,700, then $7,400 as ‘perfect storm’ brews – Chris Vermeulen

__________________________________________________

A Different View

Momentum indicators are pointing higher for both gold and the miners … that does not mean it’s a buy (not advice, not a recommendation).

For both GDX, and GDXJ, they’re entering up-thrust (potential reversal) territory as discussed in a previous post.

It’s time to monitor the sector for potential exhaustion and change of momentum.

That momentum could take a while to bleed-off … being patient is just one requirement for successful speculation.

Summary

From the panic, you would think no one’s ever seen a down market. On top of that, we’re potentially just getting underway.

This is the exact environment where Wycoff analysis comes to the fore: ‘What’s the market saying about itself?’

That analysis says, gold and the miners could still push a bit higher but there are huge disconnects under the surface; not the least of which, silver’s also not confirming the move.

More on that, later.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Read Between The Lines

February 17, 2022 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold Miners

Are Bulls, Really In Charge?

The usual suspects, ‘geopolitical tensions‘, are being trotted out as the reason for gold’s latest breakout move.

Junior Miners GDXJ, have pushed past the trendline highlighted in the last report, negating the ‘short-squeeze’ analysis … for now.

So, gold’s up, markets are down, and bonds are up … all in an apparent ‘flight to safety’.

To the casual observer, it might look like pandemonium.

Let’s step back and let the price action speak for itself. However, we’re going to approach it differently this time.

The charts below of GLD, show a trend-line study that’s unbiased … the lines are there. We’ll let them tell us what’s the next likely outcome.

Gold (GLD) Weekly Chart:

First, clean and un-marked

The objective is to look at this price action and see if there are relationships not immediately discernable.

How about this one:

Looks like there’s some type of ‘axis’ trend line.

Price action’s been oscillating around this line for about two years.

What about this one:

Let’s take that last trend line and see if there’s a trading channel of some type:

Ruh, Roh Scooby … looks like there might be trouble ahead for the rabid bulls; at least temporarily.

How about putting the first axis line back in and see what we have:

Zoom in on the ‘confluence’ area below.

Valid Or Not

The big question is, if these lines are ‘in effect’.

That is, we’ll have to watch subsequent price action to see if the market’s respecting these lines … enough to precipitate a reversal.

This week’s action in GLD, has pushed past established resistance from mid-November, last year.

Doing so, has put GLD in Up-Thrust (potential reversal) position.

Momentum indicators, MACD, monthly, weekly and daily, are pointing higher.

Summary:

We’re between resistance and momentum.

Opposing forces.

Let’s throw in, major indices had their all-time highs between November last year, and January, this year; excluding biotech IBB, which peaked way back in August.

Mining sectors GDX and GDXJ, are a whole other story … their all-time highs were long ago; back in 2010 – 2011.

At the close, GDX is near up-thrust and GDXJ, is already in up-thrust position. We’ll cover that in a subsequent update.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Short-Squeeze, Junior Miners

February 16, 2022 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST 1 Comment

It’s Not Demand, It’s A Squeeze

GDXJ, Price Reversal Imminent ?

With gold sector pundits bloviating, the ever-present challenge is to cut through the bilge and see what price action’s actually doing.

Stepping away for a few days, then taking another look at the charts, has yielded some potential insight into what’s really going on.

Junior Miners, GDXJ:

The first chart shows GDXJ, in the top panel with Force Index, in the lower.

Note the Force/Volume spikes … after the demand is satisfied, price collapses … at least on the first spike; we can’t say for sure the outcome of current action.

Price spikes and volume that subsequently collapse; the textbook definition of a short-squeeze.

There’s no real bullish demand or price would launch into a bull run.

The second chart highlights the areas in question.

The last chart gives one more clue that price may reverse from current levels.

Not only do we have a potential squeeze, but we’re also contacting an established trend line.

It looks like the squeeze is over. Volume has dropped significantly and price is up against established (trend) resistance.

Gold Higher, Miners Lower

Discussed many times, it (almost) doesn’t matter what gold is doing. It can go higher and yet the miners go lower.

We won’t know exactly why until it’s all over; one possible explanation’s that corporate collapse is already baked into the cake of the major equities …

Summary:

Remember their tagline, “We’re all in this together”.

So they are.

All major corporations implementing self-destruct (sustainability) policies … all of them doing it, ‘together’.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Unbelievable’ Numbers

February 4, 2022 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, I Allegedly, JDST, JDST-22-01, Jerimiah Babe, Positions, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Good News Is Bad News. Bad News Is Good News

For all of us serfs in the banana republic proletariat, it’s near if not impossible, to keep up with the lies.

The latest ‘employment‘ report is just one example.

This video from Jerimiah Babe, posted a few days ago has a different story. Check out the intro and then farther on at time stamp: 9:00.

For a second opinion, we can go to Dan, at i-Allegedly.

On his latest post, fast-forward to time stamp 7:00, where he walks through an outdoor restaurant area that’s completely vacant.

The ’employment’ report is vapor. Judging from the comments (at ZeroHedge) most everyone seems to be aware of the fakery.

Naturally, with all of this uncertainty and rampant inflation, the logical place to go would be the gold market.

Junior Miners, GDXJ

As this post is being created (mid-session), the Junior Miners are at the danger point. Price action’s at a location where it’s decision time.

So far, it’s an ‘inside day’. We don’t have a new daily high or low from the previous session.

The Fib retrace of 23.6%, discussed previously is holding for now. That weights action to the downside.

Posting a new daily high would begin to erode the set-up; potentially indicating GDXJ, is going to attempt a retrace to the Fib 38%, level.

If that higher retrace becomes a more favorable probability, the JDST-22-01, trade will likely be closed out (not advice not a recommendation).

The chart below shows the inside action thus far.

The table below has the current positioning JDST-22-01, via inverse fund JDST (not advice, not a recommendation).

As always, the sell finger is on the trigger. Description of color coding and table layout is in this post.

Summary:

Trade decisions posted on this site are defined by the price action itself (not advice, not a recommendation). Wyckoff analysis does not concern itself with what’s obviously fake.

Wyckoff focuses strictly on what the market is saying about itself.

At this juncture, price action’s saying that both bulls and bears, are at the danger point.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Junior Miners, Stall-Out

February 3, 2022 By in DUST, Food Supply, GDX, GDXJ, Genesis 41, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Good Patriot, I Allegedly, JDST, JDST-22-01, S&P 500, SPY 2 Comments

First To Reverse

For the evening/overnight session, both gold and the S&P futures have opened lower.

The S&P is down 50-pts, nearly 1.10% (at about 8:15 p.m. Eastern) and already penetrating the last session’s low.

The number of technical factors concerning gold, the miners and especially the Junior Miners GDXJ, is significant.

We’ll cover just a few in this update.

Junior Miners, GDXJ: Daily

The un-marked daily chart shows GDXJ oscillating but in a general downward trend:

The next chart shows price action posted a reversal bar right at Fibonacci 23.6%, for the entire move; from the breakout highs in mid-November ’21, to the lows on January 28th, this year.

A ‘Fib’ retrace of 23.6%, is rare and if it holds, indicates significant weakness.

The next two charts present a case for why this shallow retrace may indeed hold and thus, indicate the start of the next leg lower.

On a print basis, it’s been a Fibonacci 55 (+1) days from the GDXJ print high on November 12th, 2021, to the high posted today (2/2/22).

The next chart shows that November 12th, 2021 was also the closing high of the breakout set-up.

The Important Part:

Yesterday, was the closing high of GDXJ (so far) and that makes it a perfect Fibonacci 55-Days, from peak-to-peak.

The last update on the miners showed significant down-pressure at support levels, unlike previous visits to the area.

Looks like we’ve had the rally that was forecast; that rally may now be fading.

“It’s reasonable to expect an attempt to rally in the coming week … but with this much down force, a successful rally is not the high-probability outcome.”

Gold Could Hold

Already discussed, is the idea, the actual price of gold may hold steady or even go higher and yet the mining sector collapses.

As Dan from i-Allegedly posts in this report, Italian wine makers are having a hard time getting corks for their bottles. That’s right, corks !!!

Does anyone really think a massive mining outfit is going to be able to source all they need to continue operations without interruption?

Let’s not even get started with the ‘sustainability’ corporate failure already baked into the cake 🙂

‘Stackers’ … We’ve Got You Covered

That’s right, if the last report was not enough, we now have this: Fertilizer plant on fire … imagine that.

Right in time for spring planting.

But wait, there’s more; look at the fire chief’s comments. How many “33s” can you count?

For we wrestle not …

“For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places.”

Sorry for those who think it’s all a ‘myth‘. I’m with Good Patriot on this one (time stamp 17:09); that we’re in a battle surpassing all that’s come, since 33 AD.

Gold & Silver

Hard assets: Good to have for sure (ammunition, seeds and egg-laying hens may be better) … but if we’re really in a similar event to Genesis 41, that means the corn and grain come first, then gold and silver.

Summary:

This post started with the S&P down about -0.80% and it’s now down -1.10%, posting a new daily low.

Gold is down slightly, holding steady but that’s already been discussed above.

Remaining short the sector via JDST-22-01 (not advice not a recommendation).

Position size on JDST-22-01, has been increased. More on that in the next report.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Junior Miners, Trading Clues

January 29, 2022 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-22-01, Positions 1 Comment

Clues For Entry, Clues For Exit

The last time weekly down-thrust energy (Force-Index) was this deep, GDXJ price action ratcheted lower for 16-weeks before a significant reversal.

That reversal took place at support where GDXJ, is now. However, back then (week of October 1st), contact with support was on weakening Force-Index; this time, it’s increasing.

It’s reasonable to expect an attempt to rally in the coming week … but with this much down force, a successful rally is not the high-probability outcome.

Summary:

One possible clue for exit of short position, JDST-22-01, is to look for continued downside action but with divergent (lessening) thrust energy; not advice, not a recommendation.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

It’s The Poo … Turning Into Gold

January 28, 2022 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Genesis 41, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, ice-age-farmer, JDST, JDST-22-01, Positions, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Wait, What ? … We Really Do Need Cows ?

Unprecedented times, yields unprecedented events.

It looks like cow dung (i.e., fertilizer) is literally turning into gold.

From the October 12th, 2021, update:

“What happens when the public realizes all-at-once, it’s the food supply that’s not ever (in quantity) coming back?”

Of course, in our upside-down world, if dung is turning into gold, well then gold must be turning into, um, something akin to dung; and so, it is.

For those who have been monitoring this site and others like ice age farmer, this news is nothing new.

The assessment that gold (GLD) was in a reversal (up-thrust) test, published hours before the Fed announcement, appears to be correct.

From the mining sector, the Junior Miners (GDXJ) have been hit the hardest being down about – 10.7%, for the week (early session).

Junior Miners, GDXJ:

We’re going to use the weekly close chart of GDXJ, as presented in the January 24th, update; more specifically, this statement:

“If GDXJ really has pivoted more aggressively to the downside, price action will ‘get itself into the channel’ by accelerating sharply lower.”

So, let’s take a look.

GDXJ, Then:

GDXJ Now (early session):

It’s still a long way to go before the close. However, action seems to be accelerating lower into the new more aggressive down-channel.

More detail in the zoom chart below.

Positioning

As a courtesy, although not obligated in any way, the following is from the company’s trade spreadsheet (not advice, not a recommendation).

The ‘share size’ has been changed to indicate percentage of the position.

Frist, we had DUST-21-01, closed out (details discussed here) and then JDST-22-01, opened. We’ll call that initial open as 100%.

Then, additions were made and one reduction before adding again. Those changes are shown as percentages of the original size.

Example: If the original entry on 1/19, was 10,000 shares of JDST, then on 1/20, that amount was increased by 348, shares and so on.

The table below provides the dates and entry/exit prices (not advice, not a recommendation).

Summary:

There may still be opportunity to increase position size.

However, it’s obvious at this point, the market’s in decline and volatility likely to increase all the more.

It’s literally been four months or longer, to plan this trade. As of this post, the combined position is up a nice +31%

The next order of business is to monitor action and locate potential exit targets and stop levels.

Meanwhile, the cow dung becomes ever more valuable. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Fighting The Last War

January 26, 2022 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-22-01, Van Metre 1 Comment

Because, Last Time Will Work This Time

Gold fund GLD, saw record inflows for the past year.

So, that’s the place to be, right?

In a rare (media) event, the answer may be included in the above link.

The analyst in the article is quoted as being “surprised” the actual metal, gold, has not moved appreciably higher as a result of massive ETF inflows.

Since before 1980 when gold reached an all time high (back then) of $850/oz., its’ been ‘inflation, inflation, inflation’.

That Was Then:

It’s been forty-plus years (some would argue more) of non-stop inflation.

At some point, the music stops; we seem to be very close.

Everybody stampeding into gold and related markets (i,e., the miners) appears to be fighting the last war: Inflation.

Where We Are Now:

In Steven Van Metre’s latest update, he presents just how precarious and fragile is, the current market environment.

It’s a short video, just under 13-minutes; it’s worth the time.

The internet’s been the great equalizer and so everyone has access to the same information.

After watching his video (time stamp 6:07), it raises the question as to why anyone, or any financial manager, would want to be long in the equity market (not advice, not a recommendation).

To Be, Or Not To Be, ‘Certified’

Let’s just throw in that ‘certified’ management actually underperforms non-certified peers. At least in the case of the CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst).

In the article above, it even states that ‘experience’ is a deciding factor. Imagine that. 🙂

One has to be smart to pass the certification tests. No doubt. However, ‘smart’ does not equal ‘savvy’.

Taking all of this into account, it’s reasonable to think we’re possibly just one ‘fat-finger’ away …

Gold Finished Testing ?

We’re a few hours from the Fed announcement but the market looks like it’s already made a decision.

The daily chart of gold (GLD) shows all that’s happened since the potential for up-thrust breakout was first presented.

The zoom chart shows price action right at the support/trendline of the terminating wedge.

More importantly, we see that action is below the established resistance line; possibility indicating the test is complete.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners: Now, It’s Obvious

January 24, 2022 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-22-01, Positions, Speck-Effect, The Speck, Vernon Coleman 1 Comment

It Was Never A Bull Market

The bottom’s falling out of the equity markets and the miners are going right along with them.

For long-time users of this site, this lack of a sustainable bull market in the mining indices was identified long ago.

Fifteen months ago, we had the following post. Let’s review and give it an update:

‘What’s wrong with this picture?’

The Charts:

First off, we’ll re-post the weekly close chart of Junior Miners, GDXJ as it was then (October 25th, 2020):

The following quotes were also part of that report:

“One way to look at it is, the junior sector does not believe gold (and silver) prices can be sustained at current levels.”

“Or, if they are sustained, there must be something else at work that would prevent them form obtaining a substantial profit.”

Now we know, nearly a year and a half later, that “something else at work”, is what we call The Speck and the Speck-Effect.

Not only that, energy (and money) that’s being diverted to solve non-problems (covered in the last post) may be having an effect as well.

Let’s not forget supply chain problems with no end in sight.

If there ever was a case for Wyckoff analysis, this is it.

Reading price action, making calculated (intuitive) decisions will keep one away from what by now, has become useless prattle from the mainstream sources.

Remember ‘blue skies ahead’?. Seems like it was almost yesterday … oh, wait. 🙂

This garbage-in, garbage-out, is not exclusive to just the financial media.

As Dr. Vernon Colman points out in his video (linked here), it seems to be pervasive in all types of media world-wide.

Junior Miners GDXJ, At Present:

Here’s how the weekly close of the Junior Miners looks today (approximately, mid-session):

Downside Trading Channel(s)

We’ll stay with the weekly GDXJ but zoom in and mark it up:

GDXJ, has been in a well-established down-channel, beginning around late November of 2020.

As shown with the grey dashed-line, there’s a possibility of a new more aggressive channel.

The chart below shows the potential right-side trend line is currently being ‘straddled’ by price action; this can happen when the equity or index is unsure there’s been a change.

If GDXJ really has pivoted more aggressively to the downside, price action will ‘get itself into the channel’ by accelerating sharply lower.

Where’s It Headed?

For this update, we’re going to use the P&F projections for GDXJ. Fibonacci projections (which have a similar target) may be covered in tomorrow’s update … price action depending:

Downside projection is for a drop of approximately – 35% to -50%, from current levels (not advice, not a recommendation).

Summary:

As always, anything can happen. The markets could be rescued yet one more time.

However, at this juncture we’re at least in the established down channel shown above. Price action will let us know if there’s been a decisive acceleration to the downside (grey dashed-line).

Remaining short GDXJ via JDST; labeled as JDST-22-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Volatility Event: Newmont Mining

January 20, 2022 By in Dr. Elder, DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-22-01, Positions, Stew Peters, The Speck 1 Comment

Alignment Of The Bears

“Volatility Is Good”

Volatility cauterizes the emotions. It reveals the market extremes and shows each player’s hand; bulls and bears.

With the market just opened we’re going to look at gold’s last man standing: Newmont Mining.

‘Last man standing’ because, except for two equities far down in Senior Miner’s GDX, no one is anywhere near their mid-November highs.

The take on this: The gold market’s thinning out and ready to reverse.

A really big move

It’s easy to get lost and hypnotized with the day-to-day action. However, by pulling back, one sees the potential for a massive short (the market) opportunity (not advice, not a recommendation).

Implosion Effects: Broker Platforms Go Inoperative

Over and again, nearly each time there’s a big down move in the markets, where the Dow may lose 1,000 points or more, brokerage platforms seize up.

It happens so often; it’s probably best to incorporate it into one’s trading approach.

That’s one of the reasons, if not the main reason to work the short side (not advice, not a recommendation).

Newmont’s Short Clues

The volatility has exposed everybody’s hand on both side of the trade. That’s the good part.

We’ll touch on each technical event separately, starting with the unmarked daily chart:

First off, markets that have wide, high-volume bars, tend to come back and test that bar. We see it below:

Next, price action’s got itself into a terminating wedge; a potential bearish reversal pattern:

Then, we have today as Fibonacci Day 34, from the December 2nd, reversal low.

As this post is being created, NEM just made a new daily high; potentially culminating its wedge terminating move.

Big Fish, Little Hook

As Dr. Elder has said concerning stop placement, ‘You can’t catch a big fish with a little hook’.

So, we have GLD, GDX and GDXJ, in a November bull trap (up-thrust), with what looks like two-months of price action to come back and test.

If that assessment’s correct and it took two months just for a test, whatever happens next, may be on the order of years to resolve itself.

From a trade standpoint, it looks like today’s low in JDST, current open position, JDST-22-01, may be a good place for a stop (not advice, not a recommendation).

Newmont, Reversing

After Newmont posted a new daily high, it’s currently trading below yesterday’s close.

Deflation Pivot-Point

We have the usual hysteria in the gold market but this time, deflationary forces may be overtaking the manic gold bulls.

Case in point:

Existing home sales look like they’re rolling over. All kinds of excuses being made about lack of inventory and the imaginary ‘Speck’ with its new variant.

The one thing not imaginary about The Speck, is this report about what’s really going on.

Massive ‘depopulation’, is deflationary.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279