Category Archives: GLD

When Costco Sells Gold

October 1, 2023 By in China, Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, serpentza, The List, The Speck, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

The Mother of All Contrary Indicators

This has to be it, right?

Selling gold in a supermarket; an expensive commodity, peddled to the least informed and least capitalized segment of the public.

Once that market’s saturated, who’s left?

Going Down Memory Lane

It’s been nearly three years since this post.

From a long-term strategy standpoint, this site has been consistent; it’s the food supply first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

The next shoe has yet to drop on how or what’s going to be used to extract (or confiscate) precious metals from the (stacking) proletariat.

With craziness by the day, anything can happen.

Gold: Turning Points & Technical

So far, it’s been three-for-three (here, here and here) identifying recent significant technical conditions and turning points for gold, GLD.

At this juncture, the dollar collapse, and the silver/gold bull launch are just not happening. It’s not there … something else is going on (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’re in the middle of a massive sovereign bankruptcy (Time Stamp 7:10) that’s never happened before.

What’s going on behind the scenes is not visible to us.

However, from a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, those (hidden) actions and decisions show up on the chart(s).

Contrary Indicator

Remember Baghdad Bob?

Constantly giving press conferences discussing the strength of the military campaign when the exact opposite was true.

It may be so with gold as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

The local supermarket has decided, after a 22-year long bull market, it’s ‘safe’ for profit.

The hapless public is now standing at the gold kiosk; with face-mask firmly secured, arm bandaged from the latest booster, EV FOB in hand (or pocket), hypnotized into yet another mania.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

NVDA … Testing The Reversal

August 14, 2023 By in GLD, Gold & Silver, NVDA, Positions, Prechter, South Sea Bubble, SOXS, SOXX 1 Comment

The ‘Downside’ Reversal

The AI, mania’s looking a lot like the hysterical gold bugs from years ago.

Just to remind everyone what it was like.

Gold links below are nearly two years old and $3,000/oz. gold is nowhere in sight:

Von Greyerz: Gold-O-Mania Is Coming!

Gold Breakout Imminent!

Gold shhh…

Gold Probes Multi-Month Highs

“$3000 In Months, Not Years”

Gold & The Dollar Soar

Gold & Crypto Surge

The AI Bubble … Past The Top?

Moving on, this post said as we reverse and head lower, expect the hysteria to increase.

You’ll have to be the judge on whether or not the hype has moved to the next level:

Jim Cramer Thinks

‘Pullback Will Be Short-Lived’

Nvidia jumps 6%

Chipmakers Rally

Tepper’s Appaloosa places big bets

UAE said to buy ‘thousands‘ of Nvidia GPUs

NVDA, Historical Chart

The weekly chart of NVDA from 1/15/99, to present, puts the situation into perspective.

Recall, from a previous post, Prechter indicates, we haven’t been at these extremes in over 300-years.

Positioning

It was a rough day to be short the Semiconductor sector via inverse fund SOXS (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, the position remains intact with Hard Stop unchanged @ 9.42.

In the after-hours (as of 7:03 p.m., EST), inverse fund SOXS continues to edge lower; currently trading @ SOXS 9.78.

The NVDA earnings report is moving ever closer.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas … Where’s The Rally?

August 13, 2023 By in GLD, Gold & Silver, Natural Gas, UNG, ZeroHedge 3 Comments

Flush-Out The ‘Disruption’ Trade

About a month after this post on Nat-Gas, we had this on ZeroHedge:

‘It’s Become Dangerously Big’

From the article, looks like I wasn’t the only one figuring on some type of semi-permanent, supply hit.

If everybody’s ready for it … it won’t happen at all or not when it’s expected to happen.

If there’s going to be some type of blow-up and ‘the market’ knows about it, those not part of the club, need to be flushed out.

With that, let’s look at Nat-Gas (UNG), and see if we’re close to a bullish set-up.

Natural Gas UNG, Daily Candle

At this juncture, UNG has reversed below resistance and may be heading back up for a test.

Note the low volume of Friday’s action. There’s not much commitment at this level.

I’ve cut straight to the chase, showing the ‘target’ area where there could be a low-risk long entry if the market gets to that level (not advice not a recommendation).

If UNG, heads lower yet again, it could be the last straw for the weak bulls, causing them to close out.

For a prior example on how ‘targets’ work, reference here and here on gold, GLD.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The MAERSK ‘Message’

August 5, 2023 By in GLD, NVDA, Positions, Prechter, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX

‘He’s Dead, Jim’

What’s the MAERSK message?

The economy has collapsed.

He’s Dead, Jim

But wait! We’ve already written the script on what happens next:

Buy the dip, soft landing, no collapse until after the ‘elections’, stocks to soar, bull market just starting.

The Propaganda, Bot

A Bull Market Is Coming

Morgan Stanley thinks it’s a buying opportunity

Have Patience, Intel Investors!

Is this the crash-proof economy?

Not Time to Worry

The AI, Bot

Meanwhile, the SOXX and its loyal henchman, the AI bot, may have just ‘changed hands’.

Well, actually leveraged inverse SOXS, could be changing hands, shown below on the weekly chart.

Semiconductors Leveraged Inverse SOXS, Weekly

The massive volume in SOXS, over 369-million shares for the week represents (at the closing price) over $3.4-bln.

That may be the inflection point (not advice, not a recommendation).

As a reminder, here’s another example of ‘changing of hands’, link here. Since then, GLD has not topped that level.

Three-Hundred, Three Years (33)

Not since the South Sea Bubble of 1720, has there been an environment such as this.

Reference time stamp 11:10, in the link.

NVDA Earnings, Tick-Tock, Closer

One has to wonder, how NVDA, is going to ‘spin’ its upcoming earnings release and how the market will react.

Will it be, ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’, or just good ‘ol fashioned ‘sell’. Maybe it will be ‘buy, then sell’. 🙂

Who knows but it looks like the rest of the market’s not waiting around to find out (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Niger News, De-Risks ‘Short’

July 31, 2023 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Positions, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Gold Output Miniscule, On World Stage

A military coup in Niger results in gold shipment suspension.

Correspondingly, the mining sector along with gold and silver, are higher.

The real question is, will gold, silver, and the miners continue upward or is this just an excuse to force out the weak (short-positioned) hands?

If we look at the facts, such as Niger’s gold output compared to the rest of the world, it’s miniscule; hardly a blip and production is decreasing.

Add in, the mining sector has not been in a bull market for years, and we’ll surmise, the current move higher has low probability of continuing (not advice, not a recommendation).

For today’s session (as of 3:11 p.m., EST), price action has effectively been slammed into resistance as shown.

Junior Gold Miners GDXJ, Daily

For positioning short (via JDST) this is potentially a low-risk area (not advice, not a recommendation).

There would need to be continued demand for a move higher past the resistance area (blue line).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Bump & Run’ … Gold Miners

June 7, 2023 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Positions 1 Comment

Upside Test Can’t Hold

With less than an hour into the session, Junior Miners (GDXJ), have tapped upper resistance, pushed past by just 0.07-points, and are now eroding to the downside.

If the index continues lower, it has the classic near textbook look of ‘bump and run’.

It’s a price action response to stops placed just above resistance that get executed and then the market continues lower.

If that’s the case, it could get very serious to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation)

Short positions via JDST, have been maintained with a hard stop at today’s JDST, low of 5.974 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners GDXJ, Tests 38% Retrace

June 1, 2023 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST

Frustration Enough To Pull Your Hair Out

If it’s frustrating for the bears, it’s got to be frustrating for the bulls as well.

Pulling back and looking at GDXJ action without emotion, it’s clear we’re still in the ‘test’ (as we’ll see below) that’s been the topic of discussion over the past several updates.

The weekly chart of GDXJ, shows that even with today’s (as of 3:04 p.m., EST) retrace and test, we’re still in a negative divergence on the MACD (orange arrow).

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly

The horizontal blue line is not only an axis/resistance line, it’s also the Fibonacci 38.2% retrace of the GDXJ down move, April 13th, to May 25th.

We’re about an hour before the close and price action’s starting to erode from the highs.

If the downtrend is to continue, this may be a low-risk area for the shorts via JDST (not advice, not recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Mania’ or ‘Money’ … Your Choice

May 30, 2023 By in Dr. Elder, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, NVDA, Positions, The Maverick of Wall Street, TSLA, ZeroHedge

The Challenge Vs., The Money

The ‘Artificial Intelligence’ (AI) clown show’s in full swing with a ‘predicted‘ single quarter target of $11-Billion, from NVDA.

That’s not to be confused with the budget clown show just ended in Washinton D.C.

And where does that leave Tesla? They seem to be left out of the latest round of cult-like insanity.

Back in the day, Dr. Alexander Elder stated, professionals don’t look for the ‘challenge’ in the markets (trying to figure out the NVDA, top), they look for the ‘money’ … there’s a huge difference.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly Candle

As of 12:35 p.m., EST, from a technical perspective, even though we’re up for the day (so far), MACD momentum’s increasing to the downside (magenta arrow).

Nobody seems to be paying attention to gold and silver; all eyes are focused on the next shiny object.

Pulling out a bit farther on the weekly, there’s no question we’re in a channel.

The question is, are we (GDXJ) going to say in that channel or reverse from here?

The last update said we’d likely be testing the wedge break and that’s what’s happening.

A ‘test’ will take however long is needed. It’s either pass or fail. Pass in this case is resumption to the downside.

Technical conditions (MACD, wedge break) favor the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

In addition, we need to keep in mind there’s a new circus in town; the miners may be well on their way to more downside before anyone steps out of the big-top to notice.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners … Too Late To Short ?

May 26, 2023 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, JDST, SLV 1 Comment

Trader’s Discretion

For the current down-leg starting April 14th, the lowest risk point to go short the miners (via JDST) was at this post (not advice, not a recommendation).

Did I do that?

No, but I did the next best thing.

That was, aggressively position short at this post (not advice, not a recommendation).

An initial position was opened via JDST on May 15th with a hard stop at the session low; that position was doubled in size the next day when it was obvious, we’re in a reversal.

Too Late?

What happens now?

We’re about fifteen minutes before the regular session and GDXJ, looks to open slightly higher.

The Daily Chart of GDXJ below shows a penetration of the wedge with the market in position to test that break.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily Candle

The zoom moves in closer to show the detail.

Note: The last push below the wedge trendline resulted in a reversal higher. Will that happen this time?

If we use the ‘rule of alternation’, that what happened last time is not likely to happen this time, probabilities favor a test and continuation to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Is this an entry opportunity? Maybe.

Is it as low risk as the prior two pivot points? Probably not.

Then again, the bulls may be stunned at this point and usure what to do. Therefore, huge short positions may not (yet) be in play that don’t need to be squeezed out.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Dutch Masters

May 25, 2023 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, JDST, Neil McCoy-Ward, NVDA, SLV

More Than A Cigar

Dutch government puts the death knell on their economy … others will likely follow.

While the i-phone crowd is so easily distracted with AI and NVDA being their savior, back at the ranch, economies are being systematically destroyed.

Besides copper, one of the best indicators of robust economic activity is silver (SLV).

Since January, this site has highlighted the potential for a significant, sustained reversal in the precious metals; specifically, gold and silver.

Now, both the charts of GLD, and SLV, have weekly bearish MACD divergences (not shown); having just crossed the zero line with one more trading day to go.

Using a recent weekly bearish divergence as an example, natural gas (UNG), shows us the possibility; UNG is now down – 82%, (at the lows) in just 37-weeks.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly

If gold and silver decline relentlessly from here, the sector most likely to take the biggest hit, is/are the ‘Juniors’, GDXJ.

Once the public figures out en masse, they’ve been fooled into ‘stacking’ instead of securing their food supply, precious metals are likely to accelerate to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, that public has to ‘wake up’, first 🙂

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279