Category Archives: NVDA

Nvidia Split Top … Part II

June 21, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-12, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-09, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI 2 Comments

Reversal On ‘Week 89’ ?

The tape is saying ‘This could be it’.

No one knows if this is ‘The top’, or just ‘A top’, until it’s all over (not advice, not a recommendation).

This update for Nvidia, said we’re nearing Fibonacci Week 89 (from the October ’22, lows); look for evidence of a reversal.

With three-hours left in the session, NVDA is on track (along with the SOXX) to posting a weekly reversal bar.

Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

The chart updated to show we’re at ‘Week 89’.

The fact (minus 3-hours) we’re getting a reversal bar on ‘Week 89’, is potential validation of the Fibonacci count.

The market itself is telling us where to look.

With the prior update letting us know the air is going out of support for continued A.I., today’s action may be a significant reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Update: 2:07 p.m., EST

Housekeeping Note:

While under no obligation to discuss trades, nonetheless, for those following the biotech short (LABD-24-12), that trade has been exited (for now) with profit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

It’s ‘Week 89’, for NVDA

June 17, 2024 By in NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXX 1 Comment

Then, There’s The Lawsuit

Did we just hear ‘The Bell’, the top, for Nvidia?

The last update said to watch for Fibonacci correlation as NVDA, nears Week 89.

This week is that week; today, price action was gap-up higher, then reversal.

It could all amount to nothing with NVDA continuing higher at the next session.

Then, there’s the lawsuit; an old one, that’s been revived.

Is it important or is it an ‘Archduke Ferdinand‘ event?

Looking the daily chart, it’s clear, upward action is running out of steam.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Missing from the chart is a new daily low to help confirm that we’re at least in a congestion or setting up for a significant reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

As we saw in yesterday’s update with bullet item No. 7, it’s all about the numbers.

Is Fibonacci ‘Week 89’, that number for NVDA?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Nvidia (Split) Top

June 8, 2024 By in 1987, 1998, 2000 - 2001, 2007 - 2008, Artificial Intelligence, Federal Reserve, NVDA, SOXX 3 Comments

Top of The Tops?

Here … ‘Hold this bag’.

Having been through the crash of ’87, ’98, ’01, ’08, and now, the feeling is similar.

Each time the vehicle (stock) is different but also the same, at the same time.

In case anyone wants to review, here’s the definition of ‘bag holder‘.

Is Now, The Time?

Previous analysis and potential top identification for NVDA, has been premature.

With that in mind, presented below are two charts.

One has the Fibonacci count from the October ’22 lows; the other, shows a trading channel overlay.

The inference is, we’re close to some kind of ‘event’ whether it be sideways congestion or reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

It appears, since the October ’22 lows, NVDA is being influenced by a Fibonacci sequence.

The ”close’ chart has the same Fibonacci count as well as the current trading channel.

Next week is ‘Week 88’, stock-split (10 to 1), as well as the Fed meeting.

Week 88, is within the margin of error for a precise Fibonacci count, Week 89.

With NVDA, at the top of its trading range, one needs to be on the lookout for some type of Fed/Stock-Split ‘overshoot’ or other indicator of potential upside limit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bubble Trouble

June 2, 2024 By in NVDA, Prechter, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-07, SOXX 5 Comments

Is This, The Extreme?

Previous top and reversal analysis of the SOXX, and its chief cook and bottle washer, Nvidia, have been premature.

Analysis, correct for a while, only to be negated by more upward action.

So, we have to ask ourselves;

‘Do we feel lucky?’ 🙂

Actually, luck does not have much to do with it; let’s go to the action itself.

First, the long-term view of largest cap, Nvidia.

Nvidia NVDA, Quarterly

We can clearly see Prechter’s ‘Rule of alternation’ at work.

Complex, simple, complex and so on.

Note the massive upward spike in Thrust Energy (middle panel).

We’re less than a month away from completing the 2nd Quarter. It looks like thrust energy is, or will be, diverging (not advice, not a recommendation).

Moving on to the SOXX.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Weekly

Recently, the week of April 19th, there was a significant downard thrust.

A similar thrust (blue arrows) resulted in a decline lasting ten months, dropping approximately -45.35%.

However, in the case above, the reversal has yet to materialize … or has it?

Last week posted outside-down, but did not close outside-down.

It leaves the probability open for upward action.

However, from a risk standpoint, it’s The Danger Point®.

If we use last week’s high, SOXX 243.63, as a hard stop, the cost of being wrong positioned short, is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Top … Part VI

June 1, 2024 By in Dr. Elder, Ed Dowd, Gold & Silver, NVDA, Semiconductors, SLV, SOXS, SOXS-24-07, SOXX

Top Or Channel?

The market itself, tells us where to look.

The past five ‘Silver Top’ updates have looked at recent action, as a potential top and downside reversal.

The ‘Part V’, update (link here), included a ‘measured move’ target.

In the markets, an infinite number of events can be true simultaneously. Dr. Elder covers this in his book, with individual traders working multiple timeframes.

All of which brings us to the chart below.

Silver SLV, Monthly

From previous updates, we’re hovering around the support resistance zone.

Now, we can see price action’s also hitting the top of a trading channel.

The question of course is, what’s the next likely outcome?

Even without considering what else is going on in other markets, a pause, sideways congestion, or downward testing seems to be the highest probability (not advice, not a recommendation).

Did The ‘Bubble’ Just Pop?

When we do take other events into account, wide swings in the SOXX on Friday, Nvidia posting a narrow range weekly bar, a potential top indicator, Ed Dowd said, when this all implodes, there’ll be margin calls aplenty.

The technical situation of the SOXX, is planned for tomorrow’s update.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Top … Part III

April 20, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, Elsa Kurt, Gold & Silver, Greg Hunter, NVDA, SLV 1 Comment

Less Volume … Less Energy

Public Service Announcement

Before we get started, recognize there’s a huge public service available with the (media, YouTubers, et al.) discussion on potential gold, silver, rally ‘to the moon’.

Now that Nvidia (NVDA) has posted a reversal, it’s likely the bull market, if not completely over, is seriously damaged.

As Ed Dowd, former BlackRock fund manager suggested, (link here), when the market turns lower, everything’s likely to head down … everything; at least, initially.

The public service: We get to see (in real time) which analysis method is best suited to determine the truth of what’s really happening.

With that, let’s move on to the chart.

Silver SLV, Tracking ETF, Weekly

If this is an initial thrust to move higher, it’s losing energy; narrow range (weekly) bar with volume contracting.

If we’re in an up-thrust about, to reverse lower or consolidate, this is the type of market behavior to expect (not advice, not a recommendation).

Delusional In … Delusional Out

Like the Artificial Intelligence (AI) delusion, hyped-up beyond all conceivable expectations, it takes a while to deflate.

This past Friday may have been the start.

So too, it could be with precious metals.

If indeed, this time is different, and were in a sustained, long term (years-long) rally for silver (SLV), then look for the character of the price action to change.

One potential example of that would be, successive gaps higher of $5/oz., $10/oz., or more.

A real bull market breakout (like the S&P in 1995), does not let you get aboard comfortably.

Note: That breakout in ’95, was a complete shock to the typical market watcher.

The S&P had oscillated in a trading range for a year before launching decidedly higher in early ’95. In that sense, the breakout is/was the complete opposite of the ‘long awaited’ (potential) bull run in precious metals.

The Mood Has Shifted

Anecdotally, the mood appears to have shifted.

If we’ve just past the top in the market (S&P, Dow, SOXX), then expect the social construct to become unhinged.

Here’s just one example of how that looks.

If you thought it was irrational on the way up … what’s it going to be like on the way down?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners … Trap Set?

March 13, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Bonds, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IWM, Life Insurance, MET, NVDA, SOXX, SPBIO, TLT, Wyckoff, XBI 4 Comments

Is The Fear Exhausted?

It’s a confusing time.

Semiconductors with chief cook and bottle washer Nvidia, seem to be reversing. Other sectors like biotech and mid-caps were never part of the mania.

Add to that, biotech and life insurance may be correlated (more on that, in another update).

As the market looks to pivot lower, bonds are also pivoting lower or at least under pressure.

In response, one can say there’s been sort of a panic into the mining sector GDX, GDXJ; like it’s somehow more safe there.

Let’s see if the miners really are the safe-space.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

As the chart shows (as of 12:35 p.m., EST), we’re pushing into known resistance (blue line) at the 37.00, area.

There’s also a Fibonacci time frame. Today is ‘Day 55’, from the December 22nd high.

Not only are we at Day 55 from the 12/22/23 high, but we’re also at Day 21, from the February 13th, lows.

Essentially, GDXJ is about to post a Wyckoff up-thrust condition, the area for potential downside reversal.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Ready … For Reversal

March 10, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, CAT, LABD, NVDA, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 3 Comments

The Set-Up, Two-Years Wide

It seems like it’s been forever.

Shown in the chart, Biotech XBI, may be set-up for potential, sustained downside.

This post from August of 2021, describes what we’re looking for; a repeating action, possibly as old as the market itself.

It’s important to note, ‘set-up’, is not, success.

‘Set-Up’, Means: Conditions have presented themselves, lending to high probability outcome (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Weekly Close

Looking at the example with CAT (above link), and comparing it to the chart below, it’s similar except for the timeframe; XBI, is much longer.

Of course, downside action in CAT, reversing back to support, has yet to materialize with XBI.

That’s the point, it’s the unknown; The Danger Point®, where the risk of being wrong is least.

There’s nothing wrong with being wrong, i.e., quickly exiting a losing trade. It’s being wrong and staying wrong, that’s the problem. 🙂

The Nvidia Connection

This past Friday had wild trading action and volume in Nvidia, NVDA.

It posted a wide outside-down day, ranging over 108 points with heavy volume, 113.6-million.

The net result may be the end of the A.I. bubble; potential downside for it, and the rest of the markets (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Next Week

February 24, 2024 By in NVDA, Prechter, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX

Was That, The Top?

Monday’s open could be important for the mania stricken Nvidia (NVDA).

This site’s not the only one figuring on a top if not the top.

Here’s a link showing typical behavior of previous mania bubbles; all-the-same.

Below, are specific price action behaviors pointing to either a pause with congestion, or outright ‘bubble-pop’ reversal.

We’ll find out soon enough.

Nvidia NVDA, 3-Day Bar Chart

We’re using a three-day chart, showing the magnitude of current thrust energy (mid-panel) and similar occurrence back in late May of ’23.

A lot of things are going on … all at once.

Back as far as 2006, the magnitude of the (two) upward thrust spikes has never happened before.

Is this a last gasp?

Price action reached and pulled-back from the (magenta arrow) channel high. That upward move was launched from an earnings release.

Now, we have two ‘bookends’ of upward thrust but here’s the key; markets tend to alternate.

That means: ‘What happened last time is not likely to happen this time’; Prechter’s rule of alternation.

The SOXX index itself plays a role as it had an ‘outside-down’ print on Friday; otherwise known as ‘key reversal’ or ‘bearish engulfing candle.’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont Breaks Lower

February 22, 2024 By in GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Inflation, NEM, NVDA

But, What About ‘Inflation’ ?

With today’s earnings release, Newmont’s chance at an upside breakout has failed.

Include an earnings miss, dividend cut, and we have probabilities weighted for continued downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Reading the press releases, one gets the impression, Newmont’s battening down the hatches, preparing for a collapse.

If gold is supposed to launch higher, why all the divestiture, raising cash, paying down debt?

Miners Bear Market

The last update on the miners, link here, had the Juniors testing their trading channel.

Since then, price action drifted higher for one additional day, then reversed to the downside.

That’s where we are now.

To be fair, GDXJ price action has just filled a gap (as of 11:45 a.m., EST). From here, there could be some kind of upside attempt.

However, probabilities are low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Markets Go Berserk

While all eyes are on Nvidia’s (NVDA) last gasp of a delusional mania, the mining sector continues lower.

It’s quietly telling us there’s something wrong with the ‘inflation’ narrative (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279